Free Picks for Tuesday, September 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Brandon Lee
Marlins vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11½
The UNDER is worth a look here in Tuesday's matchup between the Marlins and Rockies. Coors Field isn't typically a place I look to play the UNDER, but I feel we are getting enough value with a total at 11.5 given that conditions aren't going to be ideal for hitting with temps in the low 60's and the wind blowing in from center. Not to mention a couple of hot starting pitchers on the mound with the Marlins Jose Arena and Rockies Tyler Anderson. Arena has a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts, having just allowing 2 run in 8 innings against the Mets in his last outing. Anderson has given up just 3 runs in his last 11 2/3 innings of work. All we need is one of these guys to throw well and we should fly under this total.
Brian Bitler
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -110
Big game for the Cardinals who are in a must win spot versus the Cubs. Carlos Martinez goes for the Cards and he got torched by the Cubs two starts ago so revenge will be on his mind and the Cards will be going all out. Love the low juice we will invest 9 units in the Cardinals tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -187
The Brewers need these games and are 2 games back for the last wildcard spot. They fit a nice 18-3 power system tonight that plays on home favorites that are off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent like the Reds that are off a home dog loss. The Brewers have won 5 of the last 6 here at home vs the Reds and Cincy is 7-22 on the road if the total is 9 to 9.5. Mcguire makes his first start for the Reds against a tough Milwaukee lineup. Davies goes for the brew crew and he has allowed 4 runs in his last 15 innings against the Reds. Look for Milwaukee to take the opener.
Will Rogers
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Baltimore -120
The set-up: The Pirates stalled division rival St. Louis' bid for a playoff spot by taking two of the final three games over the weekend but enter this final week of the regular season at 71-85 and nothing to play for at all. The Orioles opened the 2017 season 22-10 but quickly fell into a funk. The team got back into contention by late-August but Baltimore's long-shot playoff hopes were officially snuffed out this past Saturday night. Sunday's win versus Tampa Bay was only their fourth in 18 games. This two-game interleague series will feature a pair of teams with nothing to play.
The pitching matchup: Kevin Gausman (11-10 & 4.61 ERA) will go for Baltimore and Trevor Williams (6-9 & 4.18 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Gausman has been excelelnt in his last two starts, allowing just one ER on nine hits over 15 inning (0.60 ERA) with a 13 Ks and just two walks. He's only faced Pittsburgh once in his career (0-1 & 5.40 ERA). Williams owns a 2.12 ERA over his last five starts but has just one win to show for it (he's 1-3 and the team 2-3). Williams is a rookie who has never faced Baltimore.
The pick: The Pittsburgh Pirates clearly have their sights fixed on 2018, as five of the eight position players who started for them on Sunday were rookies. In this one, I'll back the suddenly hot Gausman.
Jim Feist
Rays at Yankees
Pick: Over
This is a good home run park and a pair of average arms clash. Blake Snell (4.01 ERA) goes for Tampa Bay with a 4.26 ERA on the road. The Over is 7-3-1 in the Rays last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is #2 in baseball in runs scored and goes with lefty Jordan Montgomery and the team is on a 7-2 run over the total at home. The Over is 7-1 in the Yankees last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Mike Lundin
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs +103
The Chicago Cubs have won 11 of their last 13 games and would clinch their second straight National League Central title with a win at Busch Stadium tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals meanwhile have dropped three straight games and we can note that the Cubs are 6-0 in the last six head-to-head meetings.
Tonight the Cards hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (12-11, 3.63 ERA. He gave up nine hits and four runs over 6 1/3 innings against Cincinnati his last time out and the right-hander is 1-1 with a somewhat high 4.26 ERA in four outings against the Cubs on the season.
The visitors turn to Jake Arrieta (14-9, 3.43 ERA) who is 8-3 with a 2.06 ERA through 16 career starts against St. Louis and 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three meetings on the season. Arrieta will make his second start since a stint on the 10-day disabled list caused by a hamstring injury, and I think he'll be as sharp as he was in his comeback when he limited the Brewers to one run in five innings.
The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 21-5 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Neither side will lack motivation as the Cardinals are fighting to remain in the Wild Card race, but I'm gonna back the hotter team here.
Teddy Davis
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -110
I lost last night backing the Cardinals, but will take them here as quite simply they are playing for their playoff lives here tonight. The Cardinals will give the ball to their ace here in Martinez and I believe he responds well here as he has pitched very well at home with a 3.18 ERA on the year.
Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -185
The Brewers need these games and are 2 games back for the last wildcard spot. They fit a nice 18-3 power system tonight that plays on home favorites that are off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits, vs an opponent like the Reds that are off a home dog loss. The Brewers have won 5 of the last 6 here at home vs the Reds and Cincy is 7-22 on the road if the total is 9 to 9.5. Mcguire makes his first start for the Reds against a tough Milwaukee lineup. Davies goes for the brew crew and he has allowed 4 runs in his last 15 innings against the Reds. Look for Milwaukee to take the opener.
Teddy Covers
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs +103
Here’s the quote from Cubs manager Joe Maddon following Chicago’s blowout win in St Louis last night: “We're definitely arriving at the same mental level we've had the last two seasons. The guys have been there, done that. They know what it's about.” That’s a pretty strong ‘bet-on’ quote for a team priced as underdogs tonight, with a chance to clinch the NL Central title on their biggest rival’s home field with a victory here.
The betting markets are doing what they do – overvaluing the starting pitching matchup at the expense of all other factors. And there’s not much love for Jake Arrieta in the markets right now. Arrieta was sharp in his first start back from a stint on the DL, throwing five innings of one run ball in Milwaukee. Maddon, following that start: “I didn't know what to expect. I thought (Arrieta) was really sharp. I was really surprised at how good he looked.” Chicago’s bullpen behind him is as good as any in baseball, and it’s a fresh pen, working only three innings over the past two days.
The Cubs might not even need a gem from Arrieta to win here if their lineup continues to click. Chicago hung ten runs on St Louis last night, pounding out 86 runs during an 11-2 hot streak over the past two weeks. They beat up Carlos Martinez when they saw him in Chicago less than two weeks ago, and Martinez struggled again in his last outing, giving up a pair of homers in Cinci. The Cardinals aren’t playing good ball, losers of three straight in ‘must win’ situations after dropping a pair to slumping Pittsburgh over the weekend. Wrong team favored here.
Jack Jones
Marlins vs. Rockies
Play: Marlins +152
The Colorado Rockies are clearly feeling the pressure of trying to clinch the second wild card spot. They have gone 4-8 in their last 12 games overall. They are now just 1.5 games ahead of Milwaukee and 2.5 ahead of St. Louis for that last spot. I don't believe they should be this heavy of a favorite today.
The Marlins have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall and are playing the role of spoiler well down the stretch. They have the clear edge on the mound behind Jose Urena, who is 14-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 26 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.
Urena is also 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against Colorado, and the Marlins are 3-0 in those starts. Tyler Anderson has been one of the weakest links in Colorado's rotation. He is 4-6 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 14 starts this season.
Urena is a sensational 9-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season. The Rockies are 1-4 in Anderson's last five starts. We'll take a shot with the big underdog value and the road team here.
John Martin
Angels vs. White Sox
Play:White Sox +145
I cashed in the White Sox +142 as my free play yesterday and I'll back them again today as +145 dogs for basically the same reason. The Los Angeles Angels cannot be this heavily favored on the road right now. The Angels are 5 games back in the wild card after blowing their opportunity by going 1-7 in their last eight games overall to seal their fate. They could care less about winning the rest of the way and will be lacking motivation now. The White Sox have gone 4-1 in their last five as their prospects have stepped in in a big way.
Dave Price
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -111
This is the last stand for the St. Louis Cardinals. At 2.5 games back in the wild card with only 6 games left, they basically need to win out to have a chance. Look for them to take care of business at a nice home price here against the Chicago Cubs. Jake Arrieta is just looking to fine-tune things heading into the postseason. He just returned from the DL in his last start and was limited to 5 innings. He won't be going deep in this one either. Carlos Martinez is 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 14 home starts this year.
Jimmy Boyd
Orioles vs. Pirates
Play: Orioles -122
I like the value here with Baltimore as a short road favorite against the Pirates on Tuesday. Pittsburgh is just looking to let some of their young kids see the field to close out the season. They started 5 rookies out of the 8 positions in the field in Sunday series finale against the Cardinals and will continue playing those young kids the rest of the way.
That's a big advantage here for Orioles starter Kevin Gausman, who comes in throwing the ball extremely well. Over his last 2 starts, Gausman has allowed just 1 run on 9 hits and just 2 walks with 13 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. I'll take my chances with Gausman and the Orioles here against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams who is just 5-8 with a 4.14 ERA and has not been able to complete more than 5 innings in each of his last 2 starts.
Orioles are 17-7 in their last 24 interleague games against a team with a losing record, 5-1 in Gausman's last 6 road starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts to open up a series. Pirates on the other hand are just 2-10 in their last 12 series openers, 0-6 in their last 6 after a day off and 1-5 in Williams' last 6 following a team loss in his last outing.
Sports Wagers
Tampa Bay +152 over N.Y. YANKEES
If the Yanks win here and clinch home field for the Wild Card game, we’ll be the first to congratulate them. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, this game has to be considered one of the best value plays of the year so far. The number here is hugely inflated because the Yanks are on the verge of clinching home-field for the Wild Card game while the Rays are out of it. Secondly, the Yanks are at home and lastly, they are the New York Yankees. Win or lose, the price on the Rays here is bordering on lunacy.
Idle since beating the Orioles with six shutout innings on Sept. 16, which ending a rough 0-2 stretch with a 5.40 ERA over seven games, Jordan Montgomery gets the call here for New York. Montgomery is definitely a work in progress. His 13% swing and miss rate over his first 15 starts was strong as well, but his minor league K-rates were lower and it has dropped to 9% over his last three. Once could conclude that MLB hitters have studied him now. His fly-ball rate is extreme, and his hr/f shows we have not yet seen the extent of the damage it could do to his ERA. Jordan Montgomery is not only a big risk at this price, he’s the second best starter in this game. Incidentally, he faced the Rays in his April 12 debut and is 0-1 with a 7.32 in two games against them this season.
Blake Snell is coming off a strong outing vs. the Cubs in which he threw seven scoreless innings and surrendered two hits. Snell is unbeaten over his last 10 starts since July 24 and he’s 2-1 versus the Yanks with a 2.73 in seven starts (over his career) allowing one or no earned runs four times. Snell is salvaging his season late in the year. After a rough first half (4.85 ERA, 1.63 WHIP), Snell has turned things around completely post-All-Star break with a 1.01 WHIP, 3.21/3.79 ERA/xERA split and a 13% swing and miss rate. Snell is in great form and is very worth getting behind at this crazy price.
OAKLAND +112 over Seattle
James Paxton missed more than a month with a pectoral strain and has thrown a disaster in both of his starts since returning. In those starts, he has only thrown 50 and 73 pitches respectively. With the Mariners essentially done for the year, there is no reason to push Paxton hard. We strongly suspect that he’ll be on a limited pitch count again. Furthermore, the opposing Athletics have been hot with their bats, averaging 5.7 runs per game in September where they have a .832 OPS.
Daniel Mengden has spent most of the season in the minors, where he has been shaky at best because of control problems. What’s so interesting about that is that he’s walked just two batters over his last 22 innings at this level, covering his last three starts. Over that span, Mengden has struck out 15 and has pitched to a 3.68 xERA to go along with a nifty 0.82 WHIP. Perhaps after spending most of last year up here, being back in the minors brought him way down. He went 2-9 with the A’s last year with an ERA over 6 but he was a strike-thrower with a plus change-up that zipped through the high minors (1.46 ERA, 4 HR allowed, 95/29 K/BB in 98 IP). Mengden found rougher sledding in his MLB debut but this year we’re seeing an opposite effect. Since being back up, Mendgen has posted some nice peripherals that include an 11% swing and miss rate and a good fastball (94 MPH) with life. We’ll roll the dice here with Mengden because the A’s have been so tough at home and Paxton figures to go five or less.
Miami -1½ +250 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
25-42 + 24.95 units