Power Sports
Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland +1.5
The A's seven-game win streak (season-best) came to an abrupt end last night as they lost 7-1 here at home to Seattle. Ironically, after sweeping the Rangers twice in less than a month, Oakland is now trying to avoid that same fate itself at the hands of the Mariners. Fortunately, tonight they have a very hot starting pitcher on the hill. They should do no worse than a one-run loss tonight.
On the road, the A's have been a disaster this year. But at home, they're 45-34 and up 13.3 units. Starting tonight will be Daniel Mengden, who has a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP his L3 starts. He comes into tonight riding a 16 inning scoreless streak since being recalled from the minors. During that time, he has allowed just nine hits and has an 11-0 KW ratio! Both starts came on the road, but I expect it will be a seamless transition pitching at home. Seattle is batting only .229 its L7 games.
The Mariners no longer have anything to play for, so I don't expect much effort from them in the final week. Barring any noteworthy offseason acquisitions, expect them to regress next season. I say that because this season's record could be a lot worse were it not for a MLB-best 26-13 record in one-run games. They won't be repeating that in 2018. James Paxton starts tonight and while he's been the team's most reliable starter, he's struggled since rejoining the rotation. His two starts have gone for a combined five innings and he's allowed five runs.
Buster Sports
Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit +160
Great situational spot for the Tigers to put the final nail in the coffin of the Royals. Kansas City comes home from an 11 game road trip. Yesterday they had to play a make up game in New York that they lost 11-3 to basically seal their fate. Now they face the terrible Tigers who had yesterday off and waited for Kansas City to come home. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (3-5, 6.68 ERA) and he will face the Royals LH Jason Vargas (17-10, 4.03 ERA) in Sanchez’s last two starts he has allowed only two runs in 12 innings pitched. When he starts against the Royals in his career he is sporting a 2.78 ERA with a WHIP of 1.158. As for Vargas, he has struggled with the Tigers this year. In two starts, as he has allowed 13 runs in 4 2/3 innings. One of those games was on September 5th so the Tigers line up will be similar with the exception of Miguel Cabrera who could miss the last week due to injury. We know that the Tigers have now lost seven in a row but the situation is too good not to take a flyer on them especially when they are playing a team that is more interested in seeing their family than having to go to the ballpark. At the time of this writing, we are getting +160 with the Tigers and we will be more than happy to take it.
Bob Balfe
A’s +110
James Paxton has great numbers this year, but as I said last week this guy has never pitched this many innings in his career and it seems like he is wearing down at the end of the season. Daniel Mengden is fresh for Oakland and has been rock solid over his last three starts giving up just 2 runs combined. Look for the Oakland starter to go a bit longer in this one and for the A’s to get the home win.
Joey Juice
It's the Reds and the Brewers in the first of a three-game series from Milwaukee. Milwaukee's chances of the postseason have all but faded away, and that puts them in desperation mode.
A look inside the numbers shows a deep advantage for the Brewers. Cincinnati not a reliable road team lately when playing a winning home team, 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Furthermore the Reds do not play well following a loss, 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing. Milwaukee on the other hand is a tremendous home team when playing a losing team, 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Most importantly the Brewers excel against right-handers, they are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a righty.
This one is all Milwaukee.
Brewers run line.
3* MILWAUKEE -1.5
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Tuesday night is the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants, and in this National League West showdown, play the Snakes on the Run Line.
Loving Ray here, as he'll be out for redemption, after his solid September caught a snag last Wednesday, when the Padres drilled him for five runs over 4.1 innings and handed him a loss. Ray is among the National League leaders with 212 strikeouts, and will dominate this lineup.
His run support will come against Moore, who has a dismal 6.51 road ERA, compared with 4.21 at home. The left-hander has allowed 13 homers both at home and away, and will get stroked tonight.
4* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Tommy Brunson
Tuesday's free play release is the Indians on the Run Line over the Twins.
It's a game that means a little something to both clubs, as Minny is trying to secure that second Wild Card spot, while Cleveland looks to keep the best record in the league on their side as we head towards October.
The difference tonight is on the mound.
Bartolo Colon just got rocked by the Yankees, as he has now dropped all 4 of his September starts, and has an over 9 ERA for the month. His last start against Cleveland saw him allow 3 solo homers in 5 innings as he took the loss back in August.
Josh Tomlin counters and is unbeaten in his 4 starts since returning from a 5 week stay on the DL. He is 2-0 with 7 runs allowed in that stretch. Since his team is on a 29-2 run their last 31 games, it would seem apparent that the play tonight is on the Tribe on the Run Line to grab the 2 runs or better victory.
Cleveland Run Line your comp play.
5* CLEVELAND -1.5
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 149-133-4 run with free picks, including a 74-74 mark on the MLB season with freebies. And after telling everyone the Buffalo Bills would win outright on Sunday, and to play the Under in the Nationals-Phillies game on Monday, I'm looking for yet another comp winner.
Take Texas tonight over Houston and list Cole Hamels over Dallas Keuchel.
Texas handing the ball to Hamels is almost like a sure thing these days, as the left-hander is 7-0 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 starts at home. That's tied for the most wins at home by a Rangers pitcher without a loss in one season in club history. Hamels fired seven scoreless innings in win over the Astros on Aug. 11, and will be sharp once again.
Keuchel was dealt a loss in his last start, after allowing two runs over six innings. With nine walks in his last three starts, including a bases-loaded walk, command has been an issue. That won't bode well against the Rangers in this one.
1* RANGERS
Jack Brayman
My free winner is on the Kansas City Royals on the Run Line against the Detroit Tigers.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Anibal Sanchez and Jason Vargas. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
It's a revenge game from earlier this month, when the Tigers - with Sanchez on the bump - destroyed the Royals and Vargas. Turnabout is fair play, and in his 31st start, Vargas is looking for win No. 18 - which would be the most for a Royal since Kevin Appier won 18 in '93.
Sanchez didn't take the decision in that win over K.C., and he hasn't beaten the Royals since 2015. He won't beat them tonight.
5* ROYALS -1.5
Joe Williams
Houston vs. Texas
Play: Texas +123
The Rangers are struggling lately, losing four in a row overall and four straight at home. However, they have their stopper Cole Hamels on the hill, and Texas is 26-6 over his past 32 starts at home. In addition, he has been a division opponent killer, as Texas is 22-8 over his past 30 inside the division. He has been especially tough on Houston, as the Rangers are 5-0 over his past five outings against the Astros and 4-0 in his past four at home against Houston. Conversely, Houston is just 15-38 in their past 53 trips to Arlington. As such, the Rangers are a solid value as home 'dogs, even against southpaw Dallas Keuchel.