Free Picks for Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Cubs -1½
After being thoroughly embarrassed 12-0 yesterday, this is the perfect spot to take the Cubs versus the Pirates. Chicago, as you would expect is a pricey money line favorite here but there is great value available by taking the Cubs on the run line at -1.5 runs. The Cubs will have Kyle Hendricks on the mound and the right-hander has a 2.33 ERA since the All Star break in his 8 starts. Also, Hendricks is a fantastic 6-0 in night starts this season and has compiled a 2.72 ERA in those starts plus held opponents to a .226 batting average under the lights! The Pirates are going with southpaw Steven Brault to take the place of Ivan Nova in the rotation. Brault has been pitching out of the bullpen and it has not gone very well as he has a 5.93 ERA and has been hit at a .328 clip in those starts. The Pirates southpaw also struggled last season in his 8 MLB appearances (7 starts) as he compiled a 4.86 ERA and opponents hit .313 against him. The Cubs are 21-11 against lefties this season and the Pirates are 4-8 when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Pittsburgh is 6-14 in Tuesday games this season while the Cubs are 15-6 in Tuesday games this season.
Brandon Lee
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -121
I'm going to go against the Diamondbacks and their 11-game winning streak, as this is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Dodgers at home. Especially with what I believe will be a pissed of LA team, who is going to be sick and tired of hearing about the 4 home run game that Arizona's J.D. Martinez had against them in last night's 13-0 loss. Diamondbacks will send out Zack Greinke, who despite a 16-6 record overall is just 3-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 11 road starts. Greinke also owns a not so great 4.03 ERA and 1.442 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Dodgers. LA is still 21-7 in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning record, 36-17 in their last 53 vs a starter who has a WHIP less than 1.15 and 5-0 in Ryu's last 5 home starts.
Larry Wallace
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Yankees -113
Sabathia this year is 11-5 with a 3.71 ERA. When Sabathia takes the mound on the road he is 7-3 with a 2.81 ERA. Also, in his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA. Lastly, in his career Sabathia is 21-10 with a 3.35 ERA against the Orioles.
Ben Burns
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +105
The Yankees took yesterday's opener but I like the Orioles' chances of bouncing back this evening. Admittedly, Sabathia has been better than Hellickson of late. That said, Sabathia got rocked the last time (4/28) that he faced the O's. In 5 2/3 innings, he gave up nine hits, two of them leaving the yard, and seven earned runs. By comparison, in Hellickson's last three starts (2012, 2013, 2014) against the Yankees, he's given up only four combined earned runs in 19 2/3 innings. Take a look at the home underdog.
Cajun Sports
New York vs. Baltimore
Play: New York -115
C.C. Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees as they take on the Orioles Tuesday night. Sabathia is 11-5 SU and his ERA is 3.71 on the season. The Orioles will send Jeremy Hellickson to the hill with his record of 8-8 SU on the year and his ERA of 5.15. We note the Yankees have lost seven of ten with Sabathia on the bump versus the Orioles but this matchup favors him here over Hellickson and the Orioles. The Yankees are 12-2 SU in Sabathia’s last fourteen starts against the American League East. The Yankees are 6-2 SU in Sabathia’s last eight starts on the road. The Orioles have hit Sabathia hard in his two outings against them this season but our numbers favor the Yankees in this contest behind Sabathia.
Larry Ness
Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -135
The 71-66 Minnesota Twins currently own the AL's second wild card spot, even after losing the first of a three-game series against the Tampa Rays last night. Coming off losing two of three to Kansas City at home this past weekend, the Twins had hoped to kick off their seven-game road trip with a win but instead, lost 11-4 to the Rays. The Angels won 11-9 (in 11 inn. at Oakland) and now sit just a half-game back of the Twins, while FIVE other teams lurk within three games of the Twins. The Rays are now 69-70 after last night's win and reside three games back of the Twins in the AL's congested scramble for the AL's final wild card spot.
Bartolo Colon (6-10 & 6.25 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Jake Odorizzi (7-7 & 4.85 ERA) for Tampa Bay. Colon, a complete bust for the Braves in going 2-8 with an 8.14 ERA, has made a huge impact since coming to Minnesota, especially of late. He is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA over his last six starts, as the Twins have posted wins in five of those six starts! Colon is 9-6 with a 4.07 ERA lifetime against the Rays in 24 starts (teams are 12-12).
Odorizzi earned the 5-3 victory last time out while permitting three runs, four hits and three walks over five innings to end a five-game win-less drought and even his record at 7-7. However, he has completed more than five innings once in his past six starts, yielding 19 ERs and 20 walks over 26 1/3 innings during that span for a 6.49 ERA. Odorizzi gave up two runs on seven hits across 5 2/3 innings of a no-decision against Minnesota on May 27 and is now 0-1 with a 4.71 ERA in four career starts vs Minnesota (team is 1-3).
Three Tampa Bay players, Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier and Logan Morrison, had three hits each in Monday's game. It is that kind of hitting up and down the lineup that kept the Rays in wild-card contention in the first half of the season and the Rays will need to hit like that in September to somehow work their way through this maze of wild card contenders. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Stephen Nover
Angels vs. Athletics
Play:Athletics +133
It's nice to see Garrett Richards return to the mound after being out since April 5 because of an irritated nerve in his right biceps.
It's also nice to see that the linesmaker has overrated Richards and the Angels in this matchup giving value to the home underdog A's.
Richards has only pitched once since his injury going two innings for Triple-A Salt Lake this past Wednesday. He's going to be on a low limit pitch count and figures to be extremely rusty. Richards doesn't have that strong of a history either against the A's with a 4.20 ERA in 15 appearances. The Angels are 3-8 the past 11 times Richards has started versus Oakland.
Kendall Graveman goes for Oakland. He's tough at home with a 3-0 mark and 2.70 ERA.
The Angels have more big name players in their lineup than the A's. That partly explains their road favorite price. But do note the A's are a very underrated 37-32 at Oakland Coliseum while the Angels are three games below .500 when playing on the road.
Gary Bart
Rangers vs. Braves
Play:Rangers +120
The Rangers are coming off a big win in Game 1 of this series. They are 5-2 over their last six ballgames. Atlanta are 1-4 over their last five games. Both starting pitchers have pitched well this season. Texas need a win. Take the Rangers on the road over the Braves.
Mike Lundin
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -138
The Cincinnati Reds claimed the opener of this three-game set with a 5-4 victory on Monday. The Brew Crew are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss and 7-0 in their last seven during Game 2 of a series. Good spot to back Milwaukee tonight with Zach Davies on the mound.
Davies (16-7, 3.85 ERA) is 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 13 starts overall and owns an 8-1 record with a 2.13 ERA on the road this season. He's held the Reds to three runs through 10 frames in two starts on the year.
The Reds turn to Robert Stephenson (3-4, 5.52 ERA) who has posted a 7.94 ERA in three career appearances out of the bullpen against the Brewers. The Reds are 4-0 in Stephenson's last four starts but 0-4 in his last four starts against a team with a winning record.
Milwaukee still has 24 games left to either catch the Cubs at the top of the division or track down the Rockies in the NL wild card race, but it can't afford to drop many more games against teams like Cincinnati.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +105
I like the value here with Baltimore as a short home dog against division rival New York on Tuesday. Despite losing the series opener 4-7 on Monday, the Orioles are still a red-hot 9-3 in their last 12 games.
On paper the starting pitching matchup would look to favor the Yankees, as Baltimore's Jeremy Hellickson has an ugly 8.81 ERA in his last 3 starts. However, he was sharp two outings ago at Boston, allowing just 2 earned runs in 7 innings and more importantly has pitched well against New York, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 7 starts against them. Yankees counter with C.C. Sabathia, who has been throwing well of late, but was torched for 7 runs on 9 hits in just 5 2/3 innings in his last start against Baltimore.
Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against a left-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Yankees are just 14-22 on the season in road games after a win and 7-17 over the last 2 years on the road when they come in having won 3 of their last 4.
Jack Jones
Giants vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -1.5
The Colorado Rockies looked to be a lock to make the postseason at the All-Star Break. But a rough second half has them sitting just 1.5 games of the Milwaukee Brewers as of today. They can't afford to overlook teams any longer, and they certainly won't be overlooking the Giants, who are 54-86 on the season.
Ty Blach is a soft tosser who is likely to get rocked today. Blach is 8-11 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 10 road starts. He has only struck out 68 batters in 144 1/3 innings.
Tyler Chatwood has not put up good numbers this year, but he certainly loves facing the Giants. He is 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 career starts against them. The Rockies are 6-0 in Chatwood's last six starts vs. San Francisco.
The Rockies are 13-3 in their last 16 home meetings with the Giants. San Francisco is 22-64 in its last 86 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Giants are 0-4 in Blach's last four starts.
John Martin
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Diamondbacks +115
The Arizona Diamondbacks have now won a whopping 12 straight games coming in. Yet they are still dogs against a Dodgers team that has packed it in already. The Dodgers are just 1-9 in their last 10 games. JD Martinez homered four times in a 13-0 win over the Dodgers yesterday. Look for Zack Greinke to try and extend this streak and build on an already great season. Greinke is 16-6 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts. He's up against Hyun-Jin Ry, who is 5-7 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 20 starts. Greinke gave up just 1 earned run in 6 innings in his last start against the Dodgers on August 31st. Ryu faced the DBacks on August 30th, giving up 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings.
Dave Price
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -138
The Milwaukee Brewers are hanging in there just 1.5 games behind the Rockies in the race for the final wild card spot in the National League. Zach Davies has been a big reason for their resurgence over the past month or so. Davies is 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA in his past 13 starts. He will shut down the Reds, who he has gone 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against . Robert Stephenson is 3-4 with a 5.52 ERA on the season for Cincinnati. The Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Milwaukee is 18-7 in Davies' last 25 starts.
Teddy Davis
Giants vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -1½
The Rockies have really struggled the 2nd half of the season, but the good new is they are still in the drivers seat for a wild card berth. They won't be taking their division rival the Giants lightly here. Blach numbers just dont match up with a 3-6 record on the road to go with a 5.43 ERA. His last 3 starts have been even worse with a 7.31 ERA. Chatwood doesn't have outstanding numbres by any means by he does pitch well against the Giants with a 7-3 record and 2.82 career ERA.