Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, September 6th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Rob Vinciletti
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -121
The Mariners fit a powerful system that is rare and has won the only 7 times it has occurred. Play on home favorites off a home dog win by 5+ runs if tey scored 10 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and the opponent scored 5+ runs on the road. The Mariners have Paxton pitching and his 3.25 home Era is much better than what Texas Pitcher Perez has Done on the road. Perez has lost 9 of 13 away and has a 6.23 road Era. This is his first start here in Seattle. Look for the Mariners to take another from Texas.
Matt Josephs
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees +1½
Aaron Sanchez has had a really good year, but Toronto is being careful with his innings. The righty is going around six innings or so as the Jays try to find the magic number. New York has struggled with him a bit, but those starts came earlier in the year. New York is now 38-28 on the season. Toronto's bullpen is 6-16 on the road with an ERA over four. Luis Cessa is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.944 in three starts for the Bronx Bombers. He's been good with only three walks in 18 innings. Toronto has lost four of their last six games and is just not as fierce offensively as they were last year. The Yankees bullpen continued to be solid with an ERA under three at home and just six losses and five blown saves there. I think there's some value in a close game with the runline in this one.
Mike Lundin
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8½
The Los Angeles Dodgers wrecked former teammate Zack Greinke in a 10-2 victory against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday. I like both teams bats to produce plenty of runs as the series continues Tuesday night.
Ross Stripling (3-6, 4.15) takes the ball for the Dodgers. He's 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA through his last four starts while allowing 28 hits in 23 innings. Stripling has a 4.84 ERA home at Chavez Ravine and a 5.17 ERA in 11 appearances under the lights this season.
The D'Backs turn to Shelby Miller (2-10, 6.81 ERA) who was torched for five runs in four of his last five outings before being demoted to the minors back in July. He pitched well in his comeback to the big leagues on August 31 when he held the Giants to a pair of runs in six innings, but now he'll face a Dodgers team he's 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in five career meetings (three starts) against.
Over is 8-1 in Diamondbacks last nine after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game and 11-1 in their last 12 when their opponent allows two runs or fewer in their previous game.
Big Al
Angels vs A's
Pick: A's
What was a bad season for the Angels got even worse on Sunday afternoon when RHP Matt Shoemaker suffered a fractured skull when being struck by a line drive off the bat of the Mariners' Kyle Seager. It was a scary moment in a season that's been filled with all sorts of disappointments for a team that still looks loaded with talent even though that talent hasn't played even close to its potential. The Angels responded with a big win here in Oakland on Labor Day, in which they plated 10 runs. But they also faced a rookie starter making his MLB Debut in RH Raul Alcantara. Tonight, they will no doubt have a tougher time of it against Zach Neal, who held the Angels scoreless in a short 2 1-3 inning stint on August 4. RH Ricky Nolasco gets the call for the Angels who are 1-5 in his last six starts coming in. Despite the loss on Monday, the A's are still 7-4 in the last 11 home games vs. teams with a losing record.
Jim Feist
Angeles at A's
Pick: Over
The LA Angels are 18-7-1 over the total against the AL West. The offense has had a nice run but starter Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 4.95 ERA) has struggled too often with opponents hitting .281 off him. Oakland's Ross Detwiler has not had a good campaign, on his second team with a 4.81 ERA and a 1-3 record. And the Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
Scott Spreitzer
Tigers at White Sox
Play: Tigers -108
Detroit has been hot and cold all season and right now the Tigers are hot again winning six of their last seven games, including yesterday when they beat Chicago in 11 innings for their fourth straight win over the White Sox. Matt Boyd is 5-2 and the Tigers have won his last six starts, including a win over the White Sox on Aug. 29. In his three previous games, Boyd allowed only four runs and 12 hits in 19 innings. The left-hander was 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in August and he's 5-0 since the All-Star break. Miguel Gonzalez is 2-4 and making his first start since coming off the disabled list. Gonzalez has allowed seven runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings against Detroit this year and the Tigers are batting .391 against him the last three seasons. Detroit has won eight of its last nine road games and the White Sox have lost 10 of their last 13 division games.
Carmine Bianco
Greece at Gibraltar
Play: Greece -3.5
Greece enter match day 1 of WCQ looking to forget their terrible Euro 2016 qualifying session where they were one of the top seeds in their group only to miss out on qualifying. A new managerial change and some positive formation changes has the team playing much better and a very good upset friendly win away against the Netherlands 2-1 on Thursday should give them confidence moving forward. I'll lay the goals here as today's free play.
Bruce Marshall
Royals at Twins
Pick: Royals
he Royals relocated their offense on Monday and pounded out 11 runs to end a mini-slump that saw them lose 4 of 6 on a crucial homestand vs. the Yankees and Tigers. Tuesday starter Dillon Gee is the last man in the rotation but he has delivered some good efforts over the past month, including seven solid innings vs. these Twins on August 18 in an eventual 8-1 win at the Big K. The good run by Twins starter Ervin Santana might have ended in his last two starts, raked for 11 hits over 5 IP in his last outing vs. the Chisox last Thursday, and cuffed for six runs in 6 2/3 IP in his previous start at Toronto on August 27.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +134 over MIAMI
We see no reason whatsoever not to continue to fade the Marlins. After being in the playoff race all season long, the Marlins have hit a wall with four losses in a row and nine losses in their past 10 games. The Fish are now two games under .500 and all but mathematically eliminated from post-season play. After months of fighting, there is a big drop off in Miami’s intensity level and it’s very difficult to get it back. Enter the enthusiastic Phillies, a dangerous team when the opposition isn’t looking. Philly took the opener here yesterday and now they’re taking back a pretty sweet price today against Jose Urena.
Urena has thrown just 60 innings this season. Last year he went 1-5 with a 5.25 ERA in 62 innings. Most of Urena’s work over the last few years has come at the minor league level where he posted 6.4 K’s/9 and 2.0 BB’s/9 over 702 innings. His minor league numbers said control would be the key but when it tanked (3.6 BB’s/9 in MLB), the results fit. The elements of intrigue (95+ mph) are there but dude can’t seem to put it together and it’s getting worse. Urena has a weak BB/K split of 23/41 in 60 frames. His swing and miss rate in his last start was a puny 3% and overall it is a poor 7%. His 39%/30%/31% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is also poor. If that’s not enough to scare you off spotting a price with this stiff, perhaps his weak 52% first-pitch strike rate will. Jose Urena brings a 5.40/5.02 ERA/xERA split into this start. There is a reason he’s been riding buses for years.
Adam Morgan is a risk too but the difference is that he’s not favored and he’s pitching for the club that’s in a much better frame of mind. With a 5.36 career ERA through his first 171 MLB innings, Morgan has very little appeal but since we're using valuable electronic ink on Morgan in this space, there has to be some flicker of value, right? Indeed there is. Morgan’s command actually looks pretty good. He's picked up a couple mph on his fastball and he continues to miss bats at a plus rate (11%), so there's even some room for strikeout rate growth. Unfortunate hit%/strand% rates has wreaked havoc on Morgan's ERA. His xERA keeps getting better and that's an important element to consider. Morgan's season has been a disaster on the surface, but his under the hood numbers say we shouldn't completely cross him off our list just yet. He’s able to miss bats at a decent rate, he's stingy with the free pass and his xERA/skills both indicate Morgan can be a profitable arm when warranted. It is warranted here.
CINCINNATI -110 over N.Y. Mets
The Reds are favored here anywhere between -110 and -118 depending on where you shop so we are going to wait for the best line here to pull the trigger. We’ll update this around dinner time but we are playing Cincinnati for sure. We suspect we’ll get a much better line later, as the Mets are hot with four wins in a row and they are just one game back of a Wild Card. Contenders usually take the money, which is why we’re likely to get a better number here. If we don't get a better price, we'll be coming in on the run line.
Rafael Montero has made just one start and three appearances this season for New York. That’s interesting because this is a New York rotation that has been decimated by injuries to Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, Steven Matz, Jonathan Niese and now Jacob deGrom among others. In other words, the Mets are starved for starters but were very reluctant to use this one. Montero has started 25 games in the minors this year and has walked 60 batters in 129 innings. He’s pitched at both the Double and Triple-A levels and continues to fight the strike zone. His oppBA of .329 at Triple-A doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Montero spent the spring in competition for a starting job and subsequently was called up for relief help. After two relief appearances in mid April he was sent back to Triple-A to stretch out as starter. This a pitcher who was shelved for the entire season a year ago after his shoulder started barking although no surgery was required. Montero is still young and now has a lot of questions to answer. If the Mets had healthy bodies available, Montero would be answering those questions in the minors, where he still belongs.
Brandon Finnegan looked like a new pitcher in August after struggling for most of the season. Check out his August skills 9.9 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and 48% grounders. Those marks were backed by a strong collection of command support: 12.3% swing and miss rate, 65% first-pitch strike rate. Because of the small sample size, Finnegan remains more of a long-term target than someone who will provide profits every time he pitches but the seeds have been planted and they are legit. For today’s true value, this is as good a place to look as any.
Jeff Alexander
Cubs/Brewers Under 9
I like the value we are getting here on the total in today's NL Central contest that has the Cubs on the road against the Brewers. Chicago will give the ball to Jason Hammel, who is no where close to the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. Hammel is 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 13 home starts, compared to 5-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 13 road starts. He faces a Brewers offense that has scored 19 runs on 31 hits in their last 3 games. Chicago's loaded lineup will face off against the Brewers Wily Peralta, who has a 5.53 ERA in 18 starts overall and a 5.52 ERA in 11 starts at home. Cubs put up 7 runs yesterday and are averaging 6.0 runs/game against division opponents this season.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers -110
Detroit is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the White Sox. These two teams are going in absolutely the opposite direction right now. The Tigers have won 11 of their last 14, while Chicago has dropped 6 of their last 8. Detroit will be giving the ball to Matt Boyd, who has quietly been throwing the ball well over the last two months. Boyd has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last 9 starts, two of those coming against the White Sox. Chicago counters here with Miguel Gonzalez, who is 2-4 with a 5.13 ERA in 7 home starts and 0-2 with a 4.95 ERA in 5 division starts. Detroit is 41-18 on the season when listed as a favorite of -110 or more, 9-1 in their last 10 against the AL Central and 27-9 in their last 36 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Ray Monohan
Reds -117
The Reds open as slim juiced favorites here on Tuesday and hold solid value at the line.
Cincinnati sends out LH Brandon Finnegan, who has been very solid for them as a starter. Finnegan is 1-1 over a 3 start span and has posted an ERA of just 1.80 in that time. Over 20.0 innings, he has recorded 29 strikeouts.
He goes up against RH Rafael Montero for the Mets, who has been horrid in his short time on the road. Montero has gone 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA over 7 road appearances (2 starts).
Some trends to note. Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series.
At this price, with a much better pitcher, the Reds hold value and are worth taking a flyer on.
Jack Jones
Seattle Mariners -120
The Seattle Mariners need a big push over the last month if they want to make the playoffs. They are currently 70-67 on the season and five games back in the wild card race. The Rangers pretty much have the division wrapped up already and won't have a lot to play for the rest of the way.
Seattle has a big edge on the mound today behind James Paxton, who is 4-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in seven home starts. Paxton has owned the Rangers, going 1-1 with a 2.32 ERA in six career starts against them.
Martin Perez is 9-10 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in 28 starts this season for the Rangers. While Perez has been a good bet at home, he's been an awful one on the road. Indeed, he is 1-8 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.564 WHIP in 13 road starts this season.
Seattle is 17-5 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. The Rangers are 1-8 in Perez's last nine road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 0-5 in Perez's last five road starts overall. The Mariners are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
Jimmy Boyd
Giants +116
San Francisco is showing great value here as a underdog against the Rockies on Tuesday. The Giants came out flat in yesterday's series opener against Colorado and it showed in a 6-0 loss, where they managed just 2 hits against Chad Bettis, who even with that start still has a 4.88 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season. I look for SF to come out here with a chip on their shoulder and cash in a win.
The Giants will send out Jeff Samardzija, who has been throwing the ball much better of late. He's got a 2.50 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in his lat 3 starts. Samardzija has also owned the Rockies in his two starts against them this season, allowing just 4 runs on 14 hits in 15 2/3 innings of work. I'll take my chances here with Samardzija out performing Rockies starter Tyler Anderson, who has been hit or miss of late.
Giants are 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 3 runs or less in 4 straight games, while the Rockies are 8-31 in their last 39 after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners.