Free Picks and Service Plays for Wednesday, August 10th, 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
RAYS 1ST HALF
The more I see of Blake Snell, the more I’m convinced the Rays have themselves a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher. Snell still has to improve his command, which can get a bit sketchy at times. But this kid has some lethal stuff, and he’s getting a very nice share of ugly swings and misses with what he’s throwing.
Snell draws tough tonight as JA Happ continues to be outstanding for Toronto. Metrics fanciers can certainly find fault with some of the peripherals. But at some point the reality just has to be accepted that Happ has turned into a winning pitcher, and in a pretty amazing way.
I think we’ve got an early inning pitching duel here between these two lefties. Both Snell and Happ are on nice rolls right now and it would be surprising to see either southpaw get blown up.
But while that sounds like a case for an Under play, I think the real value here is on the side. Based on the way Snell is bringing it over his last several starts, this game is overpriced. Normally, I’d just go Rays full game at a such a generous price, currently better than +170.
But let’s call it straight, I can’t buy a save right now and I’ll be damned if I’m going to let another late lead get away. I won’t get as attractive a price on the F5 wager, but I definitely want to back Snell and I don’t want to sweat Kevin Cash bringing in the wrong reliever, which has become an unfortunate constant with the Tampa Bay skipper. So make it a first half only play for me on the Rays and Snell.
Sleepyj
Houston -135
I'll back the Astros here on the road with Keuchel....Houston needs to make a big push and it needs to start with this game with the staffs best pitcher on the mound...The Wild-Card is slipping away, but a big surge can get them to the playoffs..It won;t be easy, but I like this match up tonight...Astros get Keuchel who has been up and down all season...He is coming off his best game of the season after he threw a complete game 3 hit shutout...He also struck out 7 in that game Vs. Texas...Atros are coming off a win and this could be the boost they need now...Minnesota hasn't seen much of Keuchel this year..He only pitched to them for 4 innings way back in early May...This could be a big help here as well...Twins will send out Santana and he has been pretty good actually...I actually like Santana and I'm surprised no team tried to add him to the staff...His ERA is 3.90, but hasn't given up much in his last 10 games..3 runs is about all you get off him on avg....Houston another team that hasn't seen him in a long time will try to get after Santana....Santana at times loses focus and can walk batter and give up the HR...This should be a good game and I lean to the under here..I just feel Keuchel and the bats of the Astros will close out a winning wager for us...Minnesota ranks 17th Vs. LHP and the Astros rank 17th Vs. RHP...Something has to give here tonight..Astros are the better team and they should squeeze out a winner.
Rob Vinciletti
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 9
The Jays have played under in 22 of 28 games vs left handers and 8 of the last 10 overall. Tonight they apply to a powerful totals system that has played under 20 of 26 times since 2004. Play the under for home favorites at -140 or higher that are off a -200 or higher home favored loss by 5+ runs if they scored 2 or less runs and the opponent had 5+ hits and no errors in a road dog win by 5+ runs like the Rays. Snell for Tampa has a solid 1.95 road Era going under in every road start. J. Happ for the Jays has a decent 3-02 home era and a 0.95 era in his last 3 starts. Look for this one to stay under tonight.
Art Aronson
Diamondbacks vs. Mets
Play: Mets -133
Robbie Ray has been consistently inconsistent all year. While far from perfect, Bartolo Colon is once again defying the odds and putting together another very respectable campaign.
Ray: He’s 5-11 with a 4.83 ERA. Ray owns a slightly better road record (4.25) than home (5.40). He also has a 5.02 ERA in all night contests to date.
Colon: He’s 10-6 with a 3.46 ERA. He owns a slightly better road record (3.22) than home (3.73). He’s excelled in all night games though, posting a 3.32 ERA.
Motivation: Amazingly, Colon needs a victory over Arizona this evening to become only the second active pitcher to beat all 30 teams. And New York is desperate for a victory today as well, having not won consecutive games since July 7-8th.
The bottom line: The price is right. Colon has been much better than Ray this season and the home side comes in focused. Consider a second look at the Mets in this matchup.
Marc Lawrence
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: White Sox -104
Edges - White Sox: Carlos Quintana 9-1 as a dog this season; and 4-0 last four team starts during August; and 2.02 ERA with 0.90 WHIP last seven overall team starts. Royals: Ian Kennedy 0-7 with 4.19 ERA last seven overall team starts; and 5-11 team starts at night this season. With Quintana in strong KW form with 16 Ks and 3 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago White Sox.
Mike Lundin
Marlins -132
The San Francisco Giants have not fared well since the All Star break and they're 4-11 in their last 15 road games. They've lost six of Jeff Samardzija's last seven outings, and I think they're in for a defeat at Marlins Park Wednesday afternoon.
Samardzija (9-8, 4.40 ERA) is 0-3 with a 6.85 ERA through his last four starts, and he's allowed at least four runs in seven of his last eight starts.
Miami turns to David Phelps (5-5, 2.45) who has worked most of the season out of the bullpen. He made the most of a spot start on Friday when he tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings at Coors Field, and he'll be looking to become a mainstay in the rotation again. Phelps has a 1.20 ERA in two appearances totaling seven innings in his career against the Giants.
Giancarlo Stanton is expected to sit out and Ichiro Suzuki will take his spot in the lineup. Stanton is just 3-for-19 with six strikeouts in previous meetings with Samardzija so that's not something I'm overly concerned with.
Jim Feist
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9½
Fenway is a great hitter's park and the NY Yankees are on a 15-5-1 run over the total on the road. Nathan Eovaldi (4.80 ERA) goes here, with a losing road record and a 5.23 ERA away from home. Boston is hitting .310 off him this season, the top offense in baseball. The Over is 4-1 in Eovaldi's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston goes with Drew Pomeranz, whom they got fleeced with before the trade deadline. He can't throw strikes and now rumors are there were undisclosed medical records by the Padres. Regardless, he has walked 12 in 18 innings with Boston while allowing 22 hits and 14 runs.
Matt Josephs
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +1½
Blake Snell continues to improve as a starter for Rays. He has allowed just five runs in his last three outings and has a 1.85 ERA on the road. Snell is also starting to strike batters out with 16 K's in his last two starts. The southpaw has never faced Toronto so that helps especially since the Jays offense isn't exactly in great form right now. They entered Tuesday night hitting just .229 in their last seven games. JA Happ is 15-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 22 starts with the Blue Jays. He has struggled with the Rays posting a 5.12 ERA in 11 starts against them. Already this season the southpaw has allowed 11 runs and 13 hits in just over eight innings against Tampa. Tim Beckham (4-10), Logan Forsythe (5-19), Evan Longoria (10-26) and Steven Souza Jr. (5-11) have had their success against Happ. The Rays are hitting .262 against left-handed starters averaging nearly five runs per game. Tampa has scored five runs or more in three of their last four and four of their last seven. They have taken four of the five games in Toronto. I think this is a ridiculous price.
Alex Smart
Rockies vs. Rangers
Play: Rockies +153
De La Rosa the Rockies starter is 2-0 with a 5.00 ERA in three starts vs Texas, holding Beltre, Elvis Andrus and Carlos Beltran to a combined 1-for-20. He is pitching well with 8 quality starts in his L/9 trips to the hill, and must be respected at this price. Meanwhile, his Texas pitching opponent Perez looks like he dealing with late season exhaustion issues as is evident by a current 0-4 record in his L/6 starts including an ugly looking 7.07 ERA and looks very much like fade material at the moment. Rockies are 4-1 in De La Rosas last 5 starts vs. American League West.Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 road game.
Chase Diamond
Astros vs Twins
Play: Twins
Tonight we have the 58-55 Astros and the 46-67 Twins. Dallas Keuchel has been a mixed bag all year long. Last time out he pitched a complete game shutout against the Rangers but week in week out you never know what the former Cy Young winner will have on the mound. Tonight he faces off with 5-9 Ervin Santana who has been very solid posting a 3.62 ERA. Ervin is motivated to show other teams what he's got as the Twins are hoping to be able tp trade the vet. I love the plus money with the Twins here as we have the more motivated pitcher at home here. 57% of the public are backing the road Astros yet this line has gone from -140 to -128.
Jesse Schule
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates have won three of four on their current home stand, and they host the Padres in the second game of this three game set at PNC Park Wednesday. The Padres have lost 11 of their last 14 road games, and they've lost four straight in Steel Town. Ryan Vogelsong will toe the slab for the Bucs, and he's coming off a solid performance. Vogelsong (1-1, 3.25 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out six in six innings in a no decision versus Atlanta his last time out. He's owned the Padres, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last five appearances. The Padres hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who has been putting a ton of men on base. Jackson (2-2, 5.00 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over eight innings in a home win over the Brewers his last time out. He's put a total of 35 men on base in his four starts (25 innings) since joining the Padres. He's 1-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his last four starts at PNC Park. Andrew McCutchen owns Jackson, batting .419 with three home runs lifetime versus the right-hander.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Houston Astros
The Astros needed to win at least three of four games at Minnesota in this series but put themselves quickly behind the eight-ball by losing 3-1 on Monday. Houston rebounded by winning 7-5 last night and must now win the next two games to capture the series. The Twins have played better as of late (21-13 since July 2) but the bottom line is, at 46-67, Minnesota's lone goal is to stay out of the AL ‘basement’ by year’s end. The Twins will likely battle the 46-66 Rays the rest of the way in that regard. Getting back to Houston, last year’s wild card-winning team finds itself four games out of the AL’s second wild card spot with three teams in front of them.
Tonight’s pitching matchup features two of MLB’s biggest ‘money burners’ in 2016, Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (7-11, 4.56 ERA) and Minnesota’s Ervin Santana (5-9, 3.62 ERA). The Astros are 10-13 in Keuchel’s start (minus-$923) while the Twins are 6-15 in Santana’s starts (minus-$931). However, despite those ‘ugly’ numbers, both starters have pitched pretty well the last two months. Keuchel has allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last nine starts, while Santana has allowed two ERs or les in EIGHT of his last nine (allowed three ERs in the other one). Keuchel’s made just three career starts vs the Twins (2-1 with a 3.93 ERA) and Santana’s 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in four starts vs the Astros (teams are 4-0).
I’m not yet ready to give up on Houston’s wild card chances and won’t be surprised if Keuchel gets back to .500 on the season (or above), by year’s end. Houston is the bet.
Dwayne Bryant
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Detroit Tigers -108 1st Half
Justin Verlander has allowed two runs or less in seven straight starts, and held these Mariners to two runs in seven innings on 06/21. Since coming off the DL, Felix Hernandez has allowed at least four runs in three of his four starts, including both home outings. Seattle has a clear bullpen edge, so we'll take them out of the equation and make a FIRST 5 INNINGS wager on Verlander and DETROIT.
Oskeim Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -195
Investment Advice: I recommend risking at least 1/2 of your wager on the run line.
Recently-acquired Ricky Nolasco toes the rubber for the Angels with a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 22 starts this season, together with a 5.16 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road and a 6.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three outings. Nolasco's peripherals are equally disappointing: 4.47 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA with a 6.68 K/9 rate and a 1.45 HR/9 rate.
The 33-year-old posted a 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5.27 FIP and a 5.43 xFIP in 28.0 innings of work in July, and currently owns a 5.32 ERA, 6.81 FIP and a 5.38 xFIP in the second half of 2016 (22.0 IP). Those metrics are are further backed by a declining strikeout rate (4.91 K/9 vs. 7.04 K/9 in first half) and rising home run rate (2.45 HR/9 vs. 1.24 HR/9 in first half).
Even more disturbing is the fact that Nolasco's second-half numbers are poor despite being aided by an unsustainable .194 BABIP. Meanwhile, Chicago right-hander Jason Hammel has been outstanding at Wrigley Field where he is 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The 33-year-old has also been strong in the second half, posting a perfect 4-0 record with a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 3.34 FIP in 24.0 innings.
I shied away from investing on Hammel at the outset of the second half in light of his career 5.05 ERA in the second stanza of the regular season. However, Hammel has dispelled those concerns by allowing just four earned runs over 24 innings (4 starts). The Cubs are 8-2 in Hammel's last ten home starts, 15-5 in his last 20 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-1 in his last seven starts with extended rest (7+ days). Chicago's bullpen has also been unhittable of late with a 0.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games.
In contrast, Los Angeles relievers have garnered a 6.85 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last seven games, together with a 4.46 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road and a 4.33 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP versus National League opponents. Finally, the Cubs are 18-6 in their last 24 games overall, including winning 7 straight.