Free Picks and Service Plays for Wednesday, August 17th, 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
Sleepyj
Toronto -152
A little pricey for the Jays, but that's expected with this ball club....Yankees jumped out early yesterday, but the Jays got the bats rolling..The deep ball was in effect and I believe it will be again here...Yankees send out Sabathia and he hasn't been sharp over the last month and a half...His ERA has spiked now at 4.20...It was at one time 2.71....So he has fell off now in the 2nd half of the season and facing the Jays won;t be easy...Bluejays have seen Sabathia enough over the last few years to know what he is good at...Jays should be able to get after Sabathia here...His walks are up and he has allowed 7 HR's in his last 4 games...He is clearly missing on something right now...I doubt he gets it fixed up for this lineup...Jays send out Happ and he is 16-3...His 2.96 ERA is for real and he has been tough all year..He doesn't allow many hits at all and his strikeouts are way up..He has become on the nominees for the Cy Young IMO....He won't give up enough here for the Yanks to factor..Jays should roll..I like the RL as well at a small + price.
Stephen Nover
Kansas City +108
Anibal Sanchez, he of the 6-12 record and 6.31 ERA, opened a favorite for Detroit.
Still need more reasons not to fade the Tigers? Didn't think so. But just in case here are more arguments why the Royals are worth backing in this spot.
Kansas City is playing well winning eight of its last 10, including the past three. Detroit is not losing seven of its past nine.
The Tigers have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. They have multiple injuries with the left side of their infield - third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Jose Iglesias - on the DL along with center fielder Cameron Maybin. Making things even worse for the Tigers is Miguel Cabrera has a left biceps strain. He missed last night's game and is questionable here.
It's difficult to win games when your bottom four hitters are James McCann (.210 batting average), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.200), Dixon Machado (.125) and Tyler Collins (.232). Those guys all started against the Royals last night. This lineup doesn't exactly inspire memories of the 1934 Detroit Tigers.
Now back to Sanchez. He should be pitching in middle or long relief at best. At worst, he shouldn't still be on a big league roster. He's given up 23 homers, including four during his last start in which he was hammered for eight runs in four innings by Texas last Friday. The Tigers keep trotting him out to the mound, holding their nose all the while because Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Pelfrey are on the DL.
Detroit has lost 16 of the past 21 times Sanchez has started.
I much prefer Royals starter Yordano Ventura. Sure, Ventura has maturity issues. But there's no denying his talent and nasty stuff. The key for Ventura is location and consistency. The buy sign is there now because Ventura is on a roll this month going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings. Go back to his last seven starts and you'll find that Ventura hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those appearances. So the consistency is there.
Ventura also has a good track record versus Detroit. He's faced the Tigers nine times and is 6-0 with a 3.18 ERA.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles +118
Baltimore is 39-17 at home this year and are a solid 12-2 home off a home loss by 2 or more runs. Boston has lost 11 of 17 as a road favorite in this range. They have Price pitching but he just a 5-7 road record with a 4.376 road Era and has allowed 8 runs in 13 inning sin 2 starts so far vs the Orioles. Baltimore counters with C. Tillman and they have won 12 of his 13 home starts this year. He has a solid 2.74 era vs Boston and is 10-3 against them in his career. Look for Baltimore to bounce back tonight.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Dodgers -165
Setting the scene: LA annihilated Philadelphia 15-5 yesterday and if you don’t mind laying some chalk, you may want to consider jumping on the Dodgers again tonight as we’re expecting another lop-sided destruction.
Scott Kazmir: He’s 9-6 with a 4.44 ERA. Kazmir gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings in a loss to these very Phillies last Wednesday. It’s been a rocky campaign for Kazmir, but this start was one of his better outings. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 4.55 ERA on the road this year.
Jake Thompson: He’s 1-1 with an 8.68 ERA. Thompson has made two big league starts and looked horrible in one and “ok” in the other. Most recently he gave up three runs off two hits over five innings in a 10-6 win over Colorado on Friday. Note that he’s walked seven batters over his two outings.
The bottom line: We’re going to give Kazmir the slight nod in this matchup, as well as giving the DODGERS the big nod at the plate as well. Consider the visitors in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Play:Kansas City +120
Edges - Royals: Yordano Ventura 11-2 career team starts during August; and 3.35 ERA with 1.14 WHIP last 7 starts. Tigers: Anibal Sanchez 1-8 team starts at night, and 1-6 team starts versus A.L. Central this season. With Sanchez a putrid 1-12 in his last 13 overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Bob Harvey
St Louis vs. Houston
Play: St Louis +112
The St. Louis Cardinals try for their fourth straight victory when they visit the Houston Astros in the finale of a brief two-game set.
The Cardinals (63-56, 35-23 road) responded to back-to-back losses with a three-game streak. They’ve done their best work at home and that’s given them a one-game lead over Miami for the second-wild card spot in the National League.
The Astros (61-58, 34-27 home) will be out to snap a three-game losing streak. Jose Altuve has done has part as he continues to strengthen his case as the American League MVP. He went 3 for 5 in Tuesday’s 8-5 victory and is now hitting a MLB best .365.
Carlos Martinez (10-7, 3.34 ERA) saw his winless skid extend to three contests on Thursday despite allowing three runs and six hits in a no-decision at Chicago. He’s been rock solid on the road posting a 6-1 record while limiting the opposition to a .216 batting average. Martinez has yet to face Houston in his young career but boasts a 1.43 ERA in interleague play.
Doug Fister (11-7, 3.61 ERA) yielded five runs and eight hits but picked up the W in a 15-7 victory at Minnesota on Thursday. He squared his record against the Cardinals at 1-1 after permitting two runs and five hits in 7.1 innings to pick up the win in his last encounter.
Eight of the Cards last 10 games have top the topped the total. Houston is 18-6-2 to the UNDER in its past 26 outings.
John Ryan
New York at Arizona
Play: Arizona -110
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NY Mets are 23-27 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 4-9 (-9.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of this season; 10-18 (-14.7 Units) against the money line against NL West opponents this season; 3-8 (-9.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game in the second half of this season; 27-34 (-19.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. Arizona is 23-14 (+9.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Diamondbacks are 5-2 in Godleys last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points Niese was hammered by Arizona for six runs in one inning of relief on Thursday and is 4-3 with a 6.94 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against the Diamondbacks. Godley allowed one run and two hits in 5 1/3 innings against Boston on Friday. Mets 2B Neil Walker (back) was scratched on Tuesday and is considered day-to-day. Walker was leading the Mets hitting over .500 in the season series against Arizona. The Mets have surrendered a 5.17 ERA to the D-backs, compared to a 3.00 ERA they have surrendered to the Mets. Take Arizona Diamondbacks.
Jim Feist
Marlins at Reds
Pick: Over
Cincinnati is a good offensive park and the Over is 16-6-5 when the Reds are at home against a team with a winning record. Miami has Andrew Cashner on the hill with a 4-9 record and a 5.08 ERA. Cashner has allowed 18 hits and 11 runs his last three outings (10+ innings). Miami is 21-9 over the total on the road vs. a team with a losing record, plus 22-10 over on the road against a team with a losing home record. Cincinnati has awful pitching and is 7-0 over the total against a right-handed starter. Homer Bailey (4.30 ERA) has allowed 20 base runners in 14+ innings and this shapes up as an offensive show.
Chase Diamond
Pirates vs, Giants
Play: Pirates
Big game for the Pirates as the 61-56 Pirates take on the 66-53 Giants. Pirates come into this game 1 game behind the Cardinals for the last wild card. Thanks to the Marlins losing Stanton it's really down to just the Cardinals and the Pirates for this spot and newly Acquired Ivan Nova is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA in 2 starts for the Pirates. Matt Cain for the Giants is off a good game where he went 5 innings and struck out 4 I just don't believe he has it anymore. Cain is 4-7 with a 5.47 ERA and frankly his best days are behind him. Pirates won 4-3 last night and get a much easier pitcher tonight.
Mike Lundin
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick: Kansas City +129
The Kansas City Royals are on the move in winning three straight and eight of their last 10 games. I like them to complete a three-game sweep of the reeling Detoit Tigers (2-7 last nine games) Wednesday night.
Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.60 ERA) will toe the slab for the Royals. He's 6-0 with a 3.18 ERA in nine career games against the Tigers and the Royals have won each of his last three starts overall, with the right-hander limiting opponents to six runs through 18 2/3 innings of work during that stretch.
The Tigers turn to Anibal Sanchez (6-12, 6.31) who was 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA in four starts against the Royals last season. He gave up eight runs on eight hits with four homers in four innings at Texas on Friday.
The Tigers fell 6-1 last night, and they're 0-6 in Sanchez's last six starts after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game and 0-7 in Sanchez's last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Baltimore
Pick: Boston
I'll maintain that the Red Sox are the vastly superior side here. Currently, they are tied w/ the Indians (whom they beat Monday) for the best run differential in the American League at +106. Baltimore has the same 66-52 record as Boston, but their run differential is only +36. Last night's game went to Boston (5-3) and tonight's should too.
Last night's win was the fifth straight overall for the Red Sox. Over the L3 days, they've won in three different cities (Boston, Cleveland, Baltimore). This is the top offensive team in baseball (648 runs scored) by a comfortable margin and tonight they send David Price to the bump. While the "Price wasn't necessarily right" when it comes to the size of the contract he was given in the offseason, the staff ace is still having a pretty decent season. His numbers in 22 career starts vs. Baltimore are very good (2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
The O's counter w/ Dylan Bundy, who has been a revelation for skipper Buck Showalter. But this will be his toughest test to date. It was supposed to be Chris Tillman starting tonight for the home team, but he was a scratch due to a shoulder issue. Baltimore has lost four straight games when facing a left-handed starter. I'll go back to that rather massive discrepancy in the two run differentials as the main justification here.
Carmine Bianco
Honduras vs. Brazil
Play: Brazil -1.5
Brazil seemed to have taken the same route Portugal took in winning the Euro's as they struggled through opening group matches and barely getting out of the group stages but did so with a solid win and followed that with another over Colombia. They'll take on Honduras for a spot in the Gold medal game on the line and I'll side with Brazil here with an attack that's finally found it's legs and they'll be difficult to beat both here and the gold medal game as well.
Buster Sports
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -115
The Reds won 6-3 last night to even their series with the Marlins and we love how they are playing baseball of late. Even their bullpen which was a sorry spot at the beginning of the year is pitching better of late. Tonight they send RH Homer Bailey (2-1, 4.32 ERA) to the mound and this will be Bailey's first home start since August 7th 2014. You know he is going to be very excited to show the Reds fans the New Bailey fresh off of Tommy John surgery last year. If his last start is any indication Bailey is coming into form quite nicely. He pitched 6 strong innings allowing no runs and striking out 11 in his last start against Milwaukee. On the hill for the Marlins tonight is RH Andrew Cashner (4-9, 5.08 ERA). Cashner is coming over in the trade with the Padres and has had a rough time of late, with the Marlins. In the month of August for the Marlins he is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA and a WHIP of 2.32. On the road in 2016, Cashner has been horrific, having a 7.03 ERA with a WHIP of 1.538. When Cashner faces the Reds he has a 5.60 ERA with a WHIP of 1.811. With Bailey getting to pitch in front of the home fans and Cashner just not looking close to himself since coming to the Marlins, we have the better pitcher and we have great value as the Reds are a small favorite.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Dodgers on the Run Line over the Phillies.
Welcome back Chase Utley!
The former Phillie was the star of the night last night, and I see no reason to believe he cannot continue coming up with clutch hits tonight for a Dodgers team that knows their division-rivals - the Giants are backsliding to the extreme!
Last night's walloping of the Phils puts the Dodgers at 7-2 the last 9 series meetings, and puts them at 6-3 their last 9 games overall.
Philly saw their 4 game winning streak snapped last night, and they will send Jake Thompson to the mound for just his third start of the season. Thus far Thompson has allowed 9 runs in 9-plus innings of work.
Scott Kazmir took the loss last week at home against the Phillies, as his losing streak has hit 3 in a row! Kazmir is seeking his 10th win of the season, and tonight he gets it.
Go with the Dodgers to extend to a comfortable win over the Phillies on Wednesday.
3* L.A. DODGERS -1.5