Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp release is for the Tigers to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Royals.
The slumping Tigers have now lost 7 of their last 9 games overall, while the Royals have gone on a little run with wins in 3 in a row, and 8 of their last 10.
My feeling is the Tigers are "due" for a win, and the fact Anibal Sanchez is 6-4 with a 2.79 ERA for his career against Kansas City does bode well.
Yordano Ventura has been throwing the ball well lately, and his career numbers against Detroit show nary a loss at 6-0 in 9 career outings.
A case could also be made that Ventura is "due" for a loss against the Tigers.
Detroit to avoid the sweep.
1* DETROIT
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 104-82 run with free picks: St. Louis (-105) at HOUSTON.
The STORYLINE in this game today - This is an old school National League rivalry, one that has always been heated. When the Houston Astros were in the N.L. Central, the St. Louis Cardinals did not like them, and vice versa. It's worn off, mostly, but there is still some lingering aspects. Tonight in Houston, I'll take the pitching mismatch and play St. Louis
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I like St. Louis' Carlos Martinez, who will be making his first career appearance against the Astros, but make note he has a 1.43 career ERA in Interleague games. Meanwhile, Fister is in after getting roughed up his last time out against the Twins, as the 32-year-old right-hander allowed five runs in seven-plus innings.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Martinez and Fister. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
3* CARDINALS
BRANDON LEE
Blue Jays -143
Toronto is worth a look here against the Yankees on Wednesday. Blue Jays are without a doubt the better team and will have a big time edge on the mound with J.A. Happ facing off against C.C. Sabathia. Happ has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2016 season. He's 16-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 23 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he enters with a 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Sabathia on the other hand has been on a downhill slide the past few months. He's allowed 4 or more runs in 7 of his last 10 starts. He's also just 1-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 10 starts during day games.
ASA
Nationals vs. Rockies Total
Play: Over 10½
Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals @ 3 ET: Stephen Strasburg will be toeing the rubber for the Washington Nationals this afternoon and hitter-friendly Coors Field is not exactly the best place for a pitcher to "get right" and truly the fireballer is struggling. Strasburg has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings over his last two starts. Similarly, the Rockies will have a struggling starting pitcher on the mound this afternoon as well. Jon Gray has given up 14 earned runs in 8 innings over his last two starts. The over is 9-1 (90%) in Colorado's home games the past three seasons where they are a dog of +150 to +175. This will be the 10th time this season that the Nats have been a road fave of -150 to -175 and, so far this year, only 2 of those games have stayed under the total. Two unders so far in this 3-game set at Coors Field and look for a "normal" Colorado-style day game to be the result in the finale. We'll grab the over in Colorado in Wednesday afternoon action.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Royals vs. Tigers
Play: Under 9
The under is 12-4-1 in the Royals last 17 games and Kansas City is unlikely to enjoy success tonight at the plate against Anibal Sanchez. The Tigers right-hander had been pitching much better prior to his last start. After a bit of a "slip up" in his most recent outing, Sanchez will respond in a big way tonight. The righty has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 home starts and he reached double digits in strikeouts in 2 of those 3 starts. The Royals will have Yordano Ventura on the mound and he has given up only 22 hits in his last 31 and 2 / 3 innings! Ventura also is 5-0 with a 3.28 ERA in his 8 career starts against Detroit. The Tigers have gone over the total only twice in their last 9 games. Detroit has been held to 2 runs or less in 6 of their last 9 games. The Royals, since the All Star break, have a .353 slugging percentage which ranks them dead last in the majors!
JIMMY BOYD
Red Sox / Orioles Under 9
I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in today's showdown between the Orioles and Red Sox. These two teams sit tied in the standings at 66-52, 1-game back of Toronto for 1st place in the AL East. There's going to be a playoff type atmosphere for this series and today's matchup features two starters who are more than capable of shutting down the opposing offense.
Boston will send out David Price, who is coming off a strong start against the Diamondbacks, where he allowed just 3 runs with 8 strikeouts in 8 innings. Price has also had a lot of success against the Orioles, posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in 22 career starts. Baltimore will counter with talented youngster Dylan Bundy, who has looked like an ace over his last 3 starts. He's got a 1.45 ERA and 0.643 WHIP during that stretch. Bundy also owns a strong 1.53 ERA in 3 home starts.
UNDER is 12-3 in Orioles last 15 games after failing to record an extra base hit 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a left-handed starter and 9-2 in their last 11 against a division opponent. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Red Sox last 10 after scoring 5+ runs, 6-0 in Price's last 6 against the AL East and 8-1 in their last 9 road games against a right-handed starter.
FRANK JORDAN
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees +138
Last night the Yankees jumped out to a 6-0 lead on the strength of a few homeruns lead by Sanchez who had two, but then came the rains and washed that all away as the Blue Jays put up 4 in the sixth and 8 in the 8th to win 12-6 as the Yankee pen had no answers to get the Blue Jays out after the 45 minute rain delay. Today is the afternoon getaway game with JA Happ against CC Sabathia in a battle of left handed pitchers. The Yankees ended up using six pitchers out of the bullpen so they need length from CC today. CC is 7-9 on the year with a 4.20 ERA and the Yankees have won three of his last four starts. Sabathia is pitching well against the Blue Jays with a 1.38 ERA in two starts, but has pitched in some tough luck with an 0-2 record. JA Happ has been great this year coming in with a 16-3 mark and sub 3 ERA. Toronto has won his last 11 starts and Happ is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA since the All-Star break. In three starts against the Yankees Happ is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. Look for a great pitchers duel, but it will be the young guys who Happ hasn't faced yet this year to come through in the cultch to give the Yankees a 3-2 win in the game and take the series.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +111 over SAN FRAN
The Giants continue to stumble down the stretch. San Fran has now dropped three in a row, four of five and five of their past seven games and they have not won back-to-back games since July. With each passing loss, winning the next time out becomes more difficult and in no way would be trust Matt Cain when spotting a tag to get this thing right-sided. Cain missed two starts in late May and returned to a 1-4 record with a 5.20 ERA in his 54 innings pitched. He pitched one game and hit the DL again. In the month leading up to his injury, Cain appeared to have distanced himself from his awful April (7.00 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his five May starts. Still, it should be noted that Cain’s May strand rate was a hearty 80%, and there wasn’t a large disparity between the two months’ xERAs (4.79 and 4.42). Cain now brings his 5.47 ERA. 1.57 WHIP and .308 oppBA to this start. Incidentally, AT&T Park is not a pitchers park during the day so Cain’s fly-ball tendencies do not figure to play well like they do in night games in which the damp nighttime air makes scoring difficult. Cain’s groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/38% is just another troubling peripheral in his profile. Cain is a starter that threw just 61 innings last year after a strained flexor tendon at the end of spring training wiped out his first half. He was a shell of his former self when he came back and he’s been like that ever since. Cain’s velocity has now reached a career low and his strikeout rate is not far behind. Cain no longer has durability and a low hr/f going for him. He looks like longshot to pitch deep into a game or be productive, much less both.
Ivan Nova produced some decent value in July (3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). His underlying skills were good, too, and featured both strikeouts and groundballs: 8.7 K’s/9, 2.9 BB/9, 49% groundballs. His 11.0% swing and miss rate confirms that his strikeout rate was legit. A 1.9 HR/9 was the reason his ERA stayed around 4.00. Getting traded to Pittsburgh was a great fit for him. Nova’s value went up tremendously since the trade but the market isn’t considering that yet. There is a big drop in class in terms of hitters one must face when going from the AL East and facing Baltimore, Boston and Toronto frequently to facing NL teams with a hitting pitcher. Nova has two wicked pitches in his 92 mph sinker (18% swing and miss rate) and 81 mph curve ball (16% swing and miss rate). There is some sneaky value here and we’re on it. We also get the team in much better form.
ARIZONA -1½ +166 over N.Y. Mets
Jonathan Niese has stayed healthy for once but his skills are ill. Niese has shown a strikeout rate drop mostly against lefties but both sides are swinging less. Perennially hittable, Niese needs great control to avoid an awful WHIP, which he is not getting, as his 43 BB in 116 frames will attest to. His first-pitch strike rate of 62% says that's still possible, but without swing and miss stuff, that likely just means more hits. Niese gets this start only because Logan Verrett's latest debacle not only cost him a spot in the rotation, but also a spot on the roster. Niese is not an upgrade and now he’ll bring his 5.04 xERA to go along with his horrible 1.58 WHIP to this unforgiving park. Niese was already fringe at his peak and now he’s way past that.
This market mostly invests in surface stats and that is one of the reasons there is so much value in taking back prices, be it on the run line or money line and Zack Godley is a perfect example of that with his 5.24 ERA. Godley is a most unusual pitching prospect, as he started out as a reliever, only converting to a starter in '15. However, he went 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA last season in just 37 innings, which was a small sample size to be sure. Fast forward to the present and Godley’s underlying stats are even better now. Godley is now a sweet under-the-radar starter worth targeting. Check out his strong skill base during his last four starts: 8.3 K’s/9 2.4 BB’s/9 and 52% grounders. Godley’s excellent year to date 13% swing and miss rate supports his K-rate. Blame an unlucky high 37% hit rate and a low 61% strand rate during the last month for Godley’s poor surface stats. We now get to buy low on him because of said stats. If you don’t like playing run-lines, there is still tremendous value in playing the D-Backs in the -120 range because they should be much higher than that against Niese. Figure the D-Backs to put up a crooked number and cover this extra half run. We much prefer the run line and the sweet tag that goes with it.
STEVE JANUS
Rays -1½ +115
Play Against - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (SAN DIEGO) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more. This system is 53-23 (70%) against the run line over the last 5 seasons.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Pirates +105
I'm backing the Pirates as a small road dog against the Giants on Wednesday. This is simply a great price here to back Pittsburgh, who is playing great baseball at the moment. The Pirates have won 3 straight and are 8-2 in their last 10. San Francisco has been on an absolute free fall since the All-Star break, as they are just 9-20 since July 15th. Pittsburgh will send out Ivan Nova, who has pitched extremely well in his first two starts since joining the Pirates, giving up just 4 runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. Nova was also dominant in his lone outing against SF earlier this season, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings of work. Giants will send out struggling veteran Matt Cain, who is a mere 4-7 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in 16 starts and was just rocked for 5 runs on 11 hits in 4 innings at home against the Orioles.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Phillies
Play: Phillies
The Dodgers now lead the NL west but expect the Phils to display a little backbone after surrendering an embarrassing 15 runs last night. LA starter Scott Kazmir is one a 3-start losing streak in which he has givien up 10 runs in 10 IP (5.00 ERA), so he is hardly untouchable. Big Phils rookie Jake TRhompson impressed in his last start, strikign out 6 in 5 IP vs. the Rockies in a Philly win.
JACK JONES
New York Mets +109
The New York Mets have finally turned it around over the past few days by winning three of their past four games overall. They have a lot of work to do still, but they feel like they have a chance to make a run at the postseason. I like the value we are getting on them as underdogs to the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.
Arizona is just 49-70 on the season while losing four of its last five games overall. The Diamondbacks certainly will find it hard to be motivated here down the stretch. Jon Niese hasn't been special this season, but he is the better starter in this matchup.
He'll be opposed by Zack Godley, who is 3-2 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in six starts this year. Godley has struggled quite a bit here of late, going 1-1 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in his last three starts.
Arizona is 0-8 (-9.1 Units) against the money line after two straight games with five or more extra base hits over the last two seasons. Niese is a perfect 8-0 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Pirates vs. Giants
Play: Pirates
San Francisco has lost 3 in a row and 6 of their L9 to drop behind Los Angeles by a 1/2 GB in the NL West. Pittsburgh has been surging, taking 3 straight and 5 of their L6 overall, including Games 1 and 2 of this series. The Pirates send Ivan Nova to the bump. The RH is a perfect, 2-0 since joining the team. The Giants have Matt Cain throwing. The RH is 4-7 with an ERA of 5.47 on the season and has yet to make it passed 5 1/3 IP since returning from the DL on July 20th, allowing 4 or more runs in 3 of his 5 starts. Pittsburgh is 5-0 their L5 games played at San Francisco, 4-1 their L5 on the road, and 43-15 their L58 vs. the NL West. San Francisco is 7-17 their L24 vs. RH starters, 1-4 their L5 at home, and 4-12 in Cain's L16 starts vs. the NL Central.
Bruce Marshall
Nationals at Rockies
Pick: Rockies
Prior to his last two starts, Colorado's Jon Gray had been pitching as well as Stephen Strasburg, allowing just 4 runs over a 5-start stretch. Gray is still 5-1 this season at Coors Field. Meanwhile, Strasburg has come off the rails in recent weeks, with all three of his losses coming in his last five starts, and 10 runs allowed in as many IP over this last two starts. losses vs. the Giants and Braves. The price looks very appealing on the Rockies.
Drew Martin
Minnesota vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta 1st Half
Hard throwing 24-year-old Mike Foltynewicz takes the hill for the Braves -- only his second home start over his last five outings. The schedule of late hasn't been friendly with road tilts at St. Louis, Washington, Colorado, and Minnesota. His lone home start came against Pittsburgh who grades out as an above average NL offense. Those five outings caused his ERA to jump from 3.70 to 4.50. A return to Turner Field should yield better results as he shows a respectable 3.71 ERA and .186 BAA at home. Folty has occasionally allowed his emotions to get the best of him, but from a stuff standpoint, he has shown the ability to successfully navigate most MLB lineups.
Kyle Gibson will start for the Twins on the heels of three shaky outings. After a solid July that saw him post a 3.69 ERA in five starts, Gibson has a 7.98 ERA in three August outings. The Braves lineup is currently sporting a .748 team OPS over the last 30 days and should benefit from the call up of top prospect Dansby Swanson. And while the Braves have the reputation of being one of the worst offenses in baseball, they've found ways to score runs -- and win games -- with an 11-9 record and 4.45 runs per game average over their last 20 games. We'll leave two suspect bullpens out of the equation and play the home side on the 5-inning line.