Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 24th, 2016

Sleepyj

Astros / Pirates Over 7.5

Pitt has some life right now and facing a RHP is a good thing for them...They rank in the top 10 Vs. RHP this year....McHugh will get the nod for the Astros here on the road....McHugh hasn't been sharp at all in his last 5 starts...He has allowed at least 3 runs or more in the last 5 games...Problem for him comes on the road...This is his 4th road start in a row and his 5th road start in his last 6...He has allowed an alarming number of HR's as well over that short stretch...8 HR's allowed and 40 hits over those 5 games..He isn't very sharp right now and getting runs off him looks rather good...Pitt will be looking to get this game after they sputtered the last few days...Cole gets the call and the Astros like the LHP...Cole hasn't been anything special this year and facing the Stros will be tough....Cole has allowed a large number of hits and runs in his last 3 games...27 hits allowed and 12ER...6 walks also in just 3 games..K's are below average and the Astros have enough bats to get 3 or 4 off of Cole...Bullpens might factor here, but my gut feeling is this one gets over early for us..This number might hit 8 rather quick...Jump on this 7.5 fast, I doubt it will be around long for this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels +126 over TORONTO

Tyler Skaggs is now 21 months past his Tommy John surgery. Skaggs has made just five starts this season and his numbers are not pretty (5.19 ERA). However, he does have 27 K’s in 26 innings along with 95 MPH heat with life. He also had a terrific Triple-A rehab stint (39 IP, 53/8 K/BB, 1.60 ERA). He’s getting stronger. Skaggs is a strike thrower with a lot of promise. He does bring risk but not any more than his mound opponent here. Furthermore, the Blue Jays continue to struggle to score runs.

Toronto’s offense is not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .235 over their past 40 games and just .240 over their past 20 games, which is third last in the AL over that span. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .155 batting average (in 103 AB’s) will be in the lineup tonight. That’s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher playing once every five days and taking up a roster spot, Mark Shapiro figured sending Cy Young candidate, Aaron Sanchez to the minors to ride buses for 10 days would be a good idea. Shapiro was an idiot in Cleveland and he’s an even bigger idiot now. Dickey has started 13 games at the Rogers Center this season and Toronto has won two of them. Dickey has lost at home this season to Philadelphia (7-0), San Diego (8-4) the White Sox (10-0) and Tampa Bay twice (6-3 & 7-5) among others. Dickey personally has two wins over his last 14 home starts and while the Blue Jays are always dangerous in their own barn, they almost always lose when Dickey pitches at home. In other words, when R.A. pitches at the Rogers Center, Toronto’s chances of losing are far greater than winning.

CINCINNATI +102 over Texas

Cincinnati’s 18-9 defeat yesterday to the Dodgers sticks out like a sore thumb, which makes them unplayable in the minds of many. Lost in the defeat is the fact that the Reds scored nine times. Cincinnati has scored nine runs or more in three of its last four games and they also have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break.

Dan Straily has struggled against lefties for years, a weakness that has prevented him from sticking as a viable mid-rotation starter until this season. That issue has not been cleared up during his mini-breakout this year. Straily is still struggling versus lefties but Texas is a heavy right-handed lineup with just two batters (Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mozara) hitting left. Straily’s stats (2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and skills show life when he faces RH bats, which comes into play here. Regardless, this wager has nothing to do with backing Straily and everything to do with fading Derek Holland. Holland makes James Shields look like Clayton Kershaw.

Derek Holland pitches today ONLY because the Rangers are paying him 7.4M this season. He’s made just 14 starts this year, which turns out to be $528,000 per start. There is no way they are going to pay him that type of money to sit. They would rather lose a game than do that. After a knee sidelined Holland in 2014, a bum shoulder sidelined him last year. Shoulder inflammation did him in this time. When he pitched this year, he was either bad or terrible 90% of the time (via dominant start/disaster start split %). Bad health and skill inconsistency cements the risk in his profile. Holland’s swing and miss rate this year is 6%. His 36%/42% groundball/fly-ball split isn’t likely to play well at this park. Holland now comes off the DL to make his first appearance in over two months. In his last three appearances, Holland was tagged for 18 hits and 13 runs in 13 innings. Four of those 18 hits left the yard. If the Texas Rangers win here, a distinct possibility indeed, so be it. However, you would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in the past decade that is less deserving to be road chalk than Derek Holland.

MIAMI -114 over Kansas City

We are going to wait to pull the trigger here. We absolutely expect this line to move significantly, as the market loads up on the Royals. Therefore, expect it to be close to a pick-em later in the day and that’s is when we will step in. No bets right now but we’ll update it to an official wager later on.

Ahhhh, the Royals. Remember them? Don’t look now but K.C. is just four games out of a Wild Card spot with a lot of baseball still to be played. They are also the hottest team in baseball with nine wins in their past 10 games. Now Andrew Cashner is favored over Yordano Ventura? Ventura has experienced more growth in his skills from April to August than any other starter in MLB. After a horrible April and May due to control issues, Ventura's skills were impactful in June: 7.8 K’s/9, 1.9 BB’s/9, 53% grounders. In July and August, Ventura has stepped it up even more. He threw 68% first-pitch strikes in his past two starts. He has a 3.08/3.47 ERA/xERA over his last six starts with 33 K’s in 38 innings over that span. Ventura is also throwing an average of 97 MPH on the gun. Ventura’s swing and miss rate in his last two starts was elite at 15%. The Royals are extremely popular and now that they’re on fire in late August, they have even more market appeal, especially against Andrew Cashner, a starter with rather ugly numbers. Kansas City is not going unnoticed. Why then, did the odds makers open the Royals up as the dog here? That raises red flags for us and it should for you too.

Andrew Cashner saw his ERA jump from 2.55 in 2014 to 4.34 in 2015, but just as things weren’t as rosy as they seemed in 2014, they weren’t quite as bad as they appeared in 2015. Now he finds himself in August with a 4.92 ERA. Do the underlying metrics offer reason for hope? Cashner’s 2015 strikeout rate uptick has faded, and a subpar swing and miss rate suggests additional shrinkage. Fewer swings and misses on his change-up (2014/2015/2016: 16%/12.2%/4.6%) and reduced usage of his slider, down 11% from 2015, have been key factors. After struggling with the slider early in the year, Cashner has reportedly found a new grip that has paid dividends. Small sample size caveats apply, but Cashner was elite at one point. He throws 94 MPH on the gun and he also has a heavy groundball lean of 54% since joining the Marlins (47% before). Cashner could provide sneaky value down the stretch and this line screams out that Kansas City is very likely the sucker dog play of the day.

Art Aronson

Rangers vs. Reds
Play: Under 8½

Setting the scene: The Reds pulled off the 3-0 victory on Tuesday, as Dan Straily would go on to continue his surprisingly strong season, getting the better of Rangers’ veteran Derek Holland. We think runs will be at a premium tonight as well.

Yu Darvish: He’s 4-3 with a 2.75 ERA. He comes in off a gem vs. Oakland on Wednesday, holding the A’s to two runs and a walk while going on to strike out nine. In his last six starts he’s given up four walks compared to 48 strikeouts.

Tim Adleman: He’s 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently held the Dodgers scoreless over five frames on Friday. The rookie has been pretty good in his limited time to this point, note that he’s now 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA at home.

The bottom line: Recent performance suggests that these two hurlers will battle it out into the latter frames, making the UNDER a very legitimate investment option.

Marc Lawrence

Orioles vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -148

Edges - Nationals: Tanner Roark 14-5 as a favorite this season; and 6-1 with 2.51 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last 7 starts. Orioles: Wade Miley 2-6 with 5.95 ERA last eight team starts. With Roark sporting a 2.44 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.

Frank Jordan

Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -157

Toronto has won six of 10 to move into a tie with Boston for first place in the AL East and are 37-26 at home after a 7-2 win over the Angels on Tuesday night to open the series. The loss has dropped the Angels to 52-73 and 23-40 on the road which is tied for the second most road losses in the majors. Toronto has 7-5 Marco Estrada who is sporting a 3.20 ERA and the Blue Jays have won three of his last four starts. Estrada has a 2.75 ERA at home this season. LA Angels are throwing Matt Shoemaker who is 7-13 on the year with a 4.14 ERA and the Angels are 4-6 in Shoemakers last 10 starts despite giving up three or fewer runs in seven of those 10 starts. Shoemaker is having a rough go of it on the road this season with a 3-9 record and ERA over five. Look for Toronto to continue to roll as the bats stay strong and Estrada will be on his top game going into the seventh allow just two runs in an 8-3 Toronto victory.

Jim Feist

Royals at Marlins
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. Kansas City ranks #25 in runs scored in baseball. The Under is 18-7-1 when the Royals face a team with a winning record, plus a 15-5-2 run under the total overall. Miami ranks #21 in runs scored and goes with ace Jose Fernandez (12-7, 3.05 ERA). He has a 9-2 record and a 2.07 ERA at home and the Under is 8-2 in his last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.

Stephen Nover

Giants +122

You have to go back to July 7 to find the last time southpaw Rich Hill threw more than five pitches in a big league game. Blisters have sidelined Hill until now when he makes his Dodgers debut.

It's not stretching things to believe Hill is going to be rusty. Perhaps even on a pitch count, which would put more pressure on an overworked Dodgers bullpen. Regardless, I'm not going to pass up taking this 'dog price with the Giants and Johnny Cueto.

The Giants and Cueto have been slumping since the All-Star break. Cueto broke out in his last start beating the Mets, 8-1, this past Friday giving up eight hits and no walks in seven innings. That was the 19th time in Cueto's past 25 starts San Francisco has won. The Giants also have won 11 of Cueto's last 13 road starts.

Now it's time for the Giants to get going. They had the best record at 57-33 entering All-Star break, but have gone 11-24 since then. We all know the Giants are a much better team than what they have shown lately.

There are many handicapping factors that point to the Giants winning today. They are:

Hill being priced a favorite in this division rivalry despite a huge randomness factor based on his more than a month of not pitching.

Cueto's outstanding track record, which includes the Giants going 3-0 the past three times he has been a road 'dog.

The Giants being 33-9 on the road and 19-7 in their last 26 games against a lefty starter.

Underrated Angel Pagan being back in the lineup from a groin strain. Pagan is riding a 19-game hitting streak.

John Ryan

Indians vs. A's
Play: A's +128

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 68-35 over the last 5 seasons good for 66% winners and made 36.8 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (OAKLAND) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL), after a win by 8 runs or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oakland is 16-8 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and they are 13-5 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. Cleveland is 15-20 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season and they are 19-26 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. Melvin is 76-57 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as the manager of Oakland. Francona is 9-29 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in road games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 8 runs or more in all games he has managed since 1997. Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 road games. Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 Wednesday games. Athletics are 5-1 in Graveman's last 6 home starts. Athletics are 4-1 in Graveman's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Athletics are 10-3 in Graveman's last 13 starts.

Fundamental Discussion Points Khris Davis went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer and Ryon Healy collected three hits and an RBI as Oakland rolled to its second win in 10 contests. Healy is 5-for-7 in the series and is riding a 10-game hitting streak during which he has recorded five multi-hit performances. Bauer made his second career start against Oakland on July 29 but remained without a decision after yielding three runs — two earned — and five hits over 5 1/3 frames. Graveman is coming off his first career shutout and second complete game of the season, a two-hitter against the White Sox at Chicago in which he struck out five without issuing a walk. He has been stingy with the free passes of late, walking a total of six batters in 56 1/3 innings over his last eight outings. Take Oakland Athletics.

Rob Vinciletti

Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Rays +149

The Rays are 11-2 as a home dog off a 1 run home loss scoring 4 or less runs. Boston is 0-3 as a road favorite off a road dog win. In fact league wide road favorites with a total of 8 or less that scored 2 or less runs have lost 17 of 23 vs an opponent off a home favored loss that scored 2 or less runs. Tampa has Andriese going and he shut down Boston here 6 scoreless in his only home start vs Boston. The Sox counter with Porcello who has been much better at home than on the road. Take Tampa.

Martin Griffiths

Chicago Fire vs. LA Galaxy
Play: Under 2½

I like the look of under 2.5 goals in this game between La Galaxy and Chicago Fire.

Five of the last six games that LA Galaxy have played on the road in the MLS have ended under 2.5 goals, just once in that run have they featured in a game with at least three goals.

The last two Chicago home games have had more than 2.5 goals, however, prior to that over seven games only once was there more than 2.5 goals in Chicago, basically over the last nine home games 66% of them have been under 2.5 goals.

Another factor to consider is that Chicago are unbeaten in their last seven home games and despite their league position have proven to be a hard team to beat on their home patch.

LA are in good form, losing just once in their last ten MLS games and that was last weekend away to New York City.

So, we have a home side strong at home in recent weeks playing a team in good decent form, basically two teams capable of cancelling each other out based on recent home and away form respectively.

I do not see an open free flowing game and whoever scores first will probably attempt to shut up shop, especially Chicago who are playing a team that surprisingly tends to concede first against teams lower down in the league when they are away from home.

All things considered I am going under 2.5 goals in this one.

Larry Ness

Phillies vs. White Sox
Pick: Phillies

The White Sox opened their nine-game homestand by losing 9-0 to Oakland but have rebounded to win three in a row, after Tuesday’s 9-7 win over the Phillies. Philadelphia has now lost back-to-back games by the combined scores of 18-1 and has now lost FIVE of seven, while being outscored 50-20. The White Sox jumped out to a 19-8 start in the early going of the 2016 season but now sit 12 games out in the AL Central at 60-64, plus 8 1/2 games back in the wild card race (FIVE teams are ahead of them!). The 58-68 Phillies are going nowhere as well, 15 1/2 games back in the NL East, plus nine games out for the NL’s final wild card spot (FOUR teams are ahead of Philly).

However, while the White Sox are minus-$362 vs the moneyline, the Phillies have been competitive all season against the moneyline. Despite losing five of the last seven, Philly is plus-$563, which ranks 6th among MLB’s 30 teams. The starting pitchers tonight will be Jerad Eickhoff (8-12, 3.91 ERA) and James Shields (5-15, 5.98 ERA). I’ve noted often how ridiculous Shields’ nickname of “Big Game James” is and the 2016 just adds to the “LOL” factor! The 34-year-old right-hander was acquired in a June 4 trade with the San Diego Padres, after going 2-7 (4.28 ERA) with the Padres. He’s 2-8 with a 7.62 ERA (team is 5-9) in 14 starts with Chicago, allowing six ERs or more in each of his last four starts. He’s allowed 33 hits (including nine HRs) in that span, as well as 27 ERs in just 14 innings (that’s a 17.26 ERA!). Combine all of his 2016 starts and he’s 7-18, minus-$1030 vs the moneyline. Could it get any worse?

In stark contrast, after beginning his second big league campaign with a 2-8 record through 11 starts (team was 3-8), Eickhoff has been MUCH better. He’s 8-4 over his last 14, with the Phillies going 8-5. No reason for Shields to get things sorted out here, making Eickhoff and the Phillies a ‘tasty’ pick.

Chase Diamond

Atlanta vs Arizona
Play: Atlanta

Today's dog play has the 46-80 Braves at the 52-74 Arizona. Julio Teheran has gotten next to no run support from the Braves he is 3-9 but sports a ultra low 2.90 ERA and a 1.00 Whip he faces Arizona ace Zach Greinke who has not had much of a year he is 11-4 but sports a high 4.21 ERA. A week ago Zach Greinke suffered his worst loss of 2016 allowing 9 runs on 10 hits in 1.2 innings so really never know lately what your gonna get from him. Julio Tehran is fresh off the disabled list and I believe this pitcher will be throwing darts today. Braves won last night 7-4 and I think there bats will stay hot tonight I don't believe Greinke is 100% and that will show it self tonight.

David Banks

SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers -132

The Giants trail the Dodgers by just one game in the NL West, but if they can’t get out of their current slump they will find themselves even further behind. San Francisco has a great chance to take the division lead away from Los Angeles as they travel down the coast to meet the Dodgers for a three-game series beginning Tuesday. On Wednesday, Giants ace Johnny Cueto will take the mound and face Rich Hill, who will be fresh off the 15-day disabled list.

The Giants dropped their last two games to the Mets prior to having Monday off. Their lineup is still strong with catcher Buster Posey (.291), SS Brandon Crawford (.274, team-high 74 RBIs), and 1B Brandon Belt (.276, 14 HR, 61 RBIs). The Giants just can’t seem to match run production with solid pitching. They were swept by the Pirates losing two one-run games then got great pitching from Jeff Samardzija (4 hits, 2 runs) but couldn’t produce any runs in a 2-0 loss to the Mets on Sunday.

Cueto, now 14-3, looks for another solid start. He pitched seven innings against the Mets last week and gave up just one run in an 8-1 victory. It was the right-hander’s first win since July 6. His opponent, Hill, hasn’t pitched since July 17 when he threw five pitches for his former team, Oakland, and then left the game with a blister. Hill is 9-3 on the season and, while he hasn’t pitched in over a month, the 36-year-old has not lost a start since May. With a 2.25 ERA, Hill will keep the Dodgers in the game. It will be up to guys like Justin Turner and Corey Seager to deliver at the plate.

Turner bats .275 and leads the Dodgers with 23 home runs and 72 RBIs. Seager, the Dodgers shortstop, leads the team with a .321 batting average and adds 22 homers and 61 RBIs to the lineup. Adrian Gonzalez bats .299 with 17 home runs and 70 RBIs for the Dodgers. It’s an important series for both teams which meet twice more this season.

Wunderdog

Cleveland @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland +130

Cleveland plays its third straight contest on the West Coast. The Indians are 5-4 over the last nine games, losing three times as a favorite, including as -143 and -275. One of those was yesterday, getting blown out 9-1. The offense has scored just two runs in the two games in Oakland, a big park, which is tough on hitters. Cleveland goes with righty Trevor Bauer and the team is 3-8 when Bauer is on the road against a team with a losing record. Cleveland is on a 3-7 run on the road and faces an Oakland squad playing its third straight home game. The Athletics have Kendall Graveman (9-8 ) on the hill, off his first career shutout, a two-hitter against the White Sox at Chicago in which he struck out five without issuing a walk. He has walked just six batters in 56+ innings over his last eight outings. The Athletics are 10-3 when Graveman starts, so grab the live home dog again and play Oakland.