Carmine Bianco
Ajax Amsterdam at FK Rostov
Play: Ajax Amsterdam
The line here is currently Pick -119 (2 way) on Ajax and I'll take a shot with the visitors here. They were in a similar spot in the last round having draw 1-1 before travelling to Greece and scoring late in a 2-1 win over Paok to get here. Russia isn't always the easiest of destinations for visitors but Ajax possess enough scoring talent to make this a play for us.
Scott Spreitzer
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -112
Hisashi Iwakuma is 14-8 with a 3.78 ERA and has allowed more than three runs just once his last eight starts. Seattle has won eight of his last 10 starts and he is 8-2 at home where he hasn't allowed a run his last three starts in 21 1/3 innings. Also, Iwakuma has a 1.69 ERA in August, including allowing three runs and six hits in seven innings at the Angels on Thursday. The Mariners have won Iwakuma's last eight home starts. Masahiro Tanaka pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Angels his last outing, however, he gave up 18 runs (13 earned) and 25 hits his three previous road contests. Seattle has won 19 of its last 27 home games and 13 of its last 18 overall. They're on a 20-6 winning run when Iwakuma toes the home rubber against teams with a winning record. The Yanks have had their share of success at SAFECO, but we feel Iwakuma is the man to "right the Seattle ship."
Chip Chirimbes
Tigers at Twins
Play: Twins
The trends surrounding this contest all point toward the Tigers as they have scored 18 runs in their last two games (both wins of course) while the Twins have lost five straight. Minnesota has dropped 8-of-10 to Detroit this season including all four games at Target Field. Matt Boyd (4-2, 3.93 ERA) has not lost in eight appearances since returning from the minors winning four decisions. The Twins will start Tyler Duffy (8-9, 5.93) who is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA against Detroit this season and the Tigers are just 2-9 in Boyd's last 11 road starts.
Teddy Covers
Royals vs. Marlins
Play: Royals +200
I understand how well Jose Fernandez has pitched at home in his career, compiling a ridiculous 26-2 mark with a 1.62 ERA at Marlins Park. His numbers have been steady and consistent throughout the 2016 campaign as well: 9-2 with a 2.07 ERA in Miami. The betting attention that Fernandez has attracted during this long term run of excellence has resulted in prices like the one we’re seeing here, with Miami priced higher than 2:1 to win tonight’s game.
There’s one big problem with those long term, aggregate numbers – they don’t factor in current form. Let’s not forget that Fernandez made only 11 starts last year and eight starts in 2014, dealing with the aftermath of Tommy John surgery. He’s already thrown 141.2 innings this year, far more than in either of the last two seasons. And Fernandez sure looks like he’s wearing down right now. Miami is 0-4 in his last four starts (all as favorites, including a home loss at -240), and Fernandez has an ERA of 6.00 during that span. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my -230 favorites!
Royals starter Dillon Gee attracts ZERO betting market attention, a league average pitcher personified. But Gee is coming off his best start of the season, needing only 84 pitches to throw seven innings of one run, five hit ball against the Twins. And there’s a lot more to this game than just a starting pitching matchup that may not be in the Marlins favor as much as the markets seem to think it is.
The Royals are the hottest team in baseball, winners of nine straight and 13 of their last 14. KC is only four games out of the Wild Card spot, surging right now. Marlins injured sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour (a duo with 40 home runs this season; the rest of the team has 66) were just joined by infielder Derek Dietrich on the DL. There’s a chance that their last remaining slugger Marcel Ozuna could miss tonight as well, after getting pulled from the game last night due to an undisclosed family emergency.
KC still has a truly elite bullpen, ranked #1 in all of MLB in ERA again this year after slamming the door shut again last night in the 1-0 thriller. And, of course, KC has been playing tough games in hostile environments on their way to the World Series over the past two Octobers. Miami hasn’t finished above .500 since 2009 and their last playoff game came back in 2003; not exactly a ‘battle tested’ team in these type of playoff atmosphere games. That’s an awful lot of fodder for a play on KC tonight as big underdogs
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies -105
Eickhoff is my 69th ranked starter (out of 162) with an e-ERA of 4.1 on the season. He’s coming off a couple of mediocre outings, but will be facing the White Sox for the very first time in his career. I think he’ll have success against them tonight. The play is really more of a fade of Shields who is a complete disaster. In his last 3 starts he’s pitched 9 innings (3 innings per start), allowed 24 hits, 9 HR’s, and 22 runs. His 4 K’s to 6 BB’s in that span indicates that he just doesn’t have the stuff to get batters out. Sure Philly offense is terrible, but they’re not much worse than Chicago’s. Better starter on the mound in this one for the visitors and I like their chances against Shields.
Bruce Marshall
NY Mets -104
Before completely dismissing the Mets, they have responded with three encuoraging wins in a row vs. teams ahead of them (Cards and fading Giants) for the NL willd card spots. WIlling to give starter Jacob deGrom a mulligan after a rocky start last Thursday in San Francisco, as he had allowed just two earned runs combined in his previous four games totaling 27 2/3 IP.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Braves-Diamondbacks contest.
The first two games this week between the teams have featured tons of offense, as both have easily landed Over the total. That makes 7 straight for the Braves Over the posted price, and 3 straight and 9 of 10 Over the total for the Diamondbacks.
Tonight I think we see a lower-scoring game tonight based on the pitching matchup of Julio Teheran and Zack Greinke.
Teheran does sport an ERA of 3.86 over his last 3 starts, but for the year the Under is 8-12-2 when he starts.
Greinke is making his 4th start since returning from a strained oblique. True, he was hit around by Boston two starts ago, but he rebounded with a solid 7 innings or 2 run ball against the Padres his last time out.
6 of Greinke's 9 starts at Chase Field this season have landed Under the total, and I see this one landing Under the total as well.
Braves and D-Backs to play a rare low-scoring game tonight.
3* ATLANTA-ARIZONA UNDER
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play release is the O's and Nats to hold Under as the Beltway Series continues as the venue shifts from Camden Yards to D.C.
Both meetings in Charm City the past two days did hold Under the total, and the Under is now 4-1-1 the last 6 series meetings between the teams.
This play definitely hinges on the fact Wade Miley needs to turn in his "signature" performance for Baltimore, as he stands at 0-2 with an over 9 ERA in his 4 starts since joining the O's. If he can match pitches with Tanner Roark, the Under will be safe.
Roark is riding a 4 game winning streak, and his 2.87 ERA leads all Washington starters.
After a pair of Unders in Baltimore, let's add one more Under to the Beltway Series here on Wednesday night.
O's-Nats Under the total.
1* BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON UNDER
STEVE JANUS
Braves vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -132
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts. This system is 97-38 (72%) against the money line since 1997.
BRANDON LEE
Red Sox -141
Boston is worth a look here against the Rays on Wednesday. The Red Sox are clicking on all cylinders at the moment. They have won each of the first 2 games of this series and 10 of their last 12 overall. Hard to not like their chances in this one, as they send out Rick Porcello against the struggling Matt Andriese. Porcello is 17-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 25 starts and has a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Andriese on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction, posting a 8.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that Porcello has owned the Rays this season. He's faced them 3 times and allowed just 5 runs in 20 innings of work. All resulting in Red Sox wins by at least 3 runs.
JACK JONES
Detroit Tigers -103
The Detroit Tigers are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race at 66-59 on the season. I like the value we are getting with them at nearly even money against the 49-76 Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of this series here Wednesday night.
Matt Boyd has held his own as a starter this season, going 4-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 12 starts. he has really turned it on of late, going 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last three starts. Boyd is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.
It's clear that Boyd is the better starter in this one as he'll be opposed by Tyler Duffey, who is 8-9 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 21 starts this season. Duffey has been at his worst at home, going 4-4 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 11 home starts.
Detroit is 19-3 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season. The Tigers are 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Detroit is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts. The Twins are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
JIMMY BOYD
Detroit Tigers -102
Detroit is showing great value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Twins. The Tigers come into this game having won two straight behind an offensive explosion. Detroit has scored 18 runs on 24 hits in their last two games and several of the Tigers' hitters are hot at the moment. I look for that to continue here against the inconsistent Tyler Duffey. He's got a 5.93 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 21 starts. He also owns an ugly 6.67 ERA in 11 home starts and was just rocked in his last outing for 5 runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Tigers will counter with Matt Boyd, who is on a tear of late. Boyd has a sizzling 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Detroit has won each of his last 4 starts and 6 of his last 7 overall. He in a great spot to keep it going, as the Twins are struggling at the plate right now, having scored just 9 runs in their last 5 games combined.
Minnesota is just 1-10 in his last 11 home games after 3 or more consecutive games against a division rival and 8-20 in their last 28 as a home dog of +100 to +125. Tigers are 19-3 in their last 22 after scoring 8 or more runs.
DAVE PRICE
Boston Red Sox -141
The Boston Red Sox have won 10 of their last 12 games overall and are showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. Their best starter this season has been Rick Porcello, who gets the ball tonight. Porcello is 17-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 25 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.773 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Matt Andriese has struggled mightily of late, going 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the Rays. Porcello is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts vs. Tampa Bay. He has won all 3 of his starts against the Rays this season while allowing only 5 earned runs in 20 innings. Porcello is 11-0 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 0-8 in Andriese's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels/TORONTO over 8½ -108
The Rogers Center is one of the more hitter friendly parks in the majors and we find a very beatable number here with Marco Estrada going up against Matt Shoemaker. If the Angels weren’t losing 15 out of every 16 games, we would absolutely be playing them here because Marco Estrada’s clock struck midnight two games ago. Estrada has been tagged for four jacks over his past two games. In his last start, he gave up three jacks in four innings. Two starts ago, Estrada walked four batters in five innings in a 9-2 loss to the Rays. Estrada has been riding a wave of good fortune for almost two years without a secret sauce. He throws 87 MPH heat. Only Jered Weaver’s velocity is lower. He is constantly behind in the count with a weak 51% first-pitch strike rate over his last 10 starts. Marco Estrada’s best skills include balls being hit to the warning track and line drives right in the glove of somebody. This is truly a case of “career-best performance with career-worst skills”. Nearly half his metrics are in steady decline. There's a dangerous level of disconnect between 2016 ROI and xERA and someone's gonna (over) pay the price. Don't let it be you.
The Angels should be an automatic play here against Estrada but the problem is that their bullpen is garbage and the Jays could score 9 times. Matt Shoemaker might get whacked too. Shoemaker has watched his skills tail off after his electric May and June. He has been one of the game's best starters when pitching at home (3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), and those marks have been backed by full skill support. Both his stats (5.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and skills tail off quite a bit when he pitches on the road and things appear to be getting worse too. Shoemaker has just 16 K’s over his last 33 innings. His 39%/24%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is screaming for trouble at this venue. Shoemaker is 3-9 on the road and he also has to fight his mind when pitching in Toronto. In two appearances here last season, Shoemaker was tagged for three bombs, 13 hits, 10 runs and a .317 oppBA in just 9.2 innings. This is a low number based on two pitchers with very misleading surface stats.
Philadelphia -104 over CHICAGO
If you make one wager today, this should be it because the value on Philadelphia to defeat the Chicago is tremendous. Jerad Eickhoff was hit hard in July, at least on the surface (4.50 ERA). But a deeper look reveals a collection of skills that continue to be rock solid, which includes 7.3 K’s/9, 1.8 BB’s/9, 42% grounders. A low and unfortunate 61% strand rate was the main reason for his ERA spike. Over his last 30 innings, Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 5/25. Overall he has a BB/K split 35/128 in 150 frames. Despite losing last night, the Phillies are simply the more enthusiastic squad with a huge starting pitching edge here.
Suffice to say, it’s been an up-and-down season for James Shields. After being traded by the Padres in early June, Shields posted a hideous 11.07 ERA in his first five starts for the White Sox. But in July, it looked like "Big Game James" was back, with a 1.78 ERA in his next five starts. It would be best not to question him about his 17.36 ERA in August though, as we keep cashing tickets by fading him and we’re not about to stop now. Shields’ is a mess. He started walking more batters last year and he’s not been able to right that ship. It’s not helping that he’s falling behind in the count frequently. Shields’ isn’t generating as many swinging strikes as usual, and that’s crushed his K-rate. While he was able to deal with his drop in velocity last year, that’s not been the case in 2016. His fly-ball rate has crept up too and with a big hr/f, it’s not surprising he leads the majors in HRs allowed. The move from Safeco (-9% RH HR) to U.S. Cellular (+14% RH HR) just makes it worse. Shields’ has $42 million left on his contract for the next two years, so he’ll be pitching somewhere. That’s sweet because when he is pitching, he is fade material every time he steps on the mound and that includes this start in late August.
N.Y. Mets +107 over ST. LOUIS
Jacob deGrom is a true ace in every sense of the word. deGrom has a BB/K split of 30/134 in 138 innings. He was hit hard in his last start but so what, as nobody is immune to the occasional blowup. At the end of the day, when we can get deGrom plus a tag, we are usually going to grab it and that is certainly the case here.
Carlos Martinez entered 2016 with his stock high. His 3.01 ERA at age 23 in 2015 was impressive, but he was shut down with a shoulder strain late in the season. Martinez has managed to stay healthy in 2016 with another sub-3.25 ERA but a check under the hood reveals things aren’t as rosy as they appear. A drop in Ks may soon hurt Martinez. Martinez's greatest asset is an elite groundball rate. His sinker (69% GB%; 26% usage) and change-up (70%; 18%) should keep the ball in the yard and ERA in check. The drop in Ks is concerning, however, as his swing and miss stuff continues to head south. Martinez's xERA is over a half-run higher than his surface ERA, which typically indicates a correction is looming—this could happen if his hit rate tends back towards league average. With two years of impressive results this early in his career, Martinez might look like a premier investment on the surface. But the drop in K’s when paired with mediocre control quickly makes this look like an average skill set. Martinez's elite groundball rate and overall record may make him an attractive bet at home but there are some major bumps in the road ahead.
TAMPA BAY +135 over Boston
We have no idea what the result of this game will be but what we do know, 100% for sure is that you are paying a massive premium to bet on Boston here with the overpriced and overvalued Rick Porcello throwing. With 17 wins and just three losses, Rick Porcello has been a boon for those who have backed him this year. Despite a blue-chip pedigree and decent skills, current production levels are not sustainable for Porcello for several reasons. Porcello lacks the premium velocity (90 MPH) and dominant off-speed pitch that most top-of-the rotation guys utilize to induce swinging strikes, rack-up strikeouts, limit base runners and strand those who do manage to get aboard. His 2016 swinging strike rate of 8% is more indicative of his 2012 & 2014 K-rate levels than the current 7.5 rate. Porcello’s loss of groundball percent is due to the decreased effectiveness of his sinker (4-year sinker GB% trend: 65%, 58%, 56%, 45%). And it's no surprise that home runs have become more of a problem the last two years. On pace to challenge for 20 wins, 170+ Ks, with a 3.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, this may very well end up being a career year for Porcello. However, the sub-indicators hint that his skills are worse now than in 2012 when he pitched to a 4.59 ERA. Porcello has outstanding control but he also puts the ball in play and starters that do that are usually .500 pitchers with ERA’s in the 4.50 range. Porcello plays for a great offense and that allows him to relax but there are blowups in that average skill set of his.
Surging indicators make Matt Andriese very worthy of backing here. Andriese’s K-rate level in the minors in 2015 (9.6) and 2016 (11.5) hints at a recently revved up arsenal and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 13%, which, if maintained, could result in a K-rate better than 8.0 going forward. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone (Ball%) and gotten ahead early in the count (first-pitch strike rate) this year. He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%). Andriese’s oppBA of .240 over 91 innings is solid. He’s only walking one batter every four frames. Yeah, Boston is Boston and they can win here for sure but we are after value plays and not inflated prices. That applies here.