Free Picks for Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES & OVER
Day game at Yankee Stadium, hot and pretty humid, no wind issues. That’s close to paradise for the hitters.
Masahiro Tanaka is throwing it much better lately for the Yankees, particularly when it comes to balls and strikes. But he’s still very homer prone. Tanaka has surrendered 27 long balls in his 123.2 innings of work and even though he’s been better overall recently, the homers are still a problem.
Jordan Zimmermann has been a season long fade for me, either going against the Detroit righty or playing the Over. I’ll go for both here. Zimmermann is off a good performance vs. the Astros, and might have had his best command of the season. But that’s just one game. Overall, the low ground ball rate has been very much in play. If that holds here, the Yankees should take him deep at least a couple of times.
Detroit was a very surprising winner on Tuesday as Anibal Sanchez stunned with a strong performance. Look for the Yanks to get the offense back in gear today and I can see Detroit doing enough to also support a play on the Over. With the money line being where it is, I’m going to opt for a parlay and a bigger payoff on the Yankees and Over.
Scott Rickenbach
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 11
Derek Holland gets the start for the White Sox here and he has pitched well in day games this season. The southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA in day games while holding opponents to just a .223 batting average! It is not a fluke either as the ChiSox lefty had similar results last season with the Rangers as he got crushed in night games but pitched well in day games. Last season with Texas, Holland went 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA while holding opponents to just a .207 batting average. The Blue Jays will have J.A. Happ on the mound for this one and, though he has had some overall struggles, he is a respectable 3-3 with a 3.82 ERA in day games this season. Also, last year Happ was a phenomenal 10-1 with a 3.07 ERA in afternoon action! Look for the lefty to shutdown a White Sox team that has been held to an average of just 3.5 runs per game in their last 13 games! In games since the All Star Break the ChiSox rank dead last for runs scored as they are #30 in the league with just 56 runs scored since mid-July. Happ has a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the White Sox and I look for more of the same here. The under is 3-1 in the 4 starts Happ has made against the ChiSox in his career. Also, the under is 5-1-1 this season in Happ's road starts! Look for the under to improve to 60-40 in Chicago's games against left-handed starters the past three seasons combined.
Mike Lundin
Minnesota at San Diego
Play: San Diego +101
The San Diego Padres seek to win for the sixth time in seven games when they host the Minnesota Twins Wednesday afternoon. The Friars hand the ball to Luis Perdomo (5-5, 4.76 ERA) who is 4-1 with a 4.89 ERA in 10 home starts this season, and the Padres are 5-0 in Perdomo's last five home starts.
The Twins turn to Ervin Santana (11-7 , 3.37 ERA) who has been tagged with nine runs on 14 hits while serving up four homers in just 10 innings in his last two starts combined. Minnesota is 1-6 on their current road trip on the West Coast and has lost three straight and seven of eight overall.
The Padres won Tuesday's contest 3-0, and I think they'll complete the sweep of this two-game set Wednesday afternoon.
Scott Spreitzer
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +106
The Nats have called up Cole for the series finale in Miami tonight, a potential welcomed site for Marlins' hitters. Cole is saddled with a hefty ERA in his recent outings against Miami and he was unimpressive in 16 outings at Triple-A Syracuse, smacked around for a 5.66 ERA. Washington enters having split their last eight games, giving up five or more runs four times. The Marlins are on a healthy 8-4 run and the bats have come alive on several occasions, including seven runs scored in last night's win. Vance Worley owns strong numbers in 38 1/3 career IP against the Nationals. Worley is making his fourth start of the season with most of his outings coming out of the pen. He probably won't eat up a lot of innings, but he's backed by a somewhat new-look pen and Brad Ziegler converted his first save opportunity of the season in last night's victory. Most of all, though, we expect Miami to provide their pitching with plenty of support at the plate. The Marlins finished July ranked 4th in team batting average in MLB and 5th in OPS. Miami's on a 5-1 run against righthanders and we'll back them here.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Royals +100
Edges - Royals: Vargas 10-1 last eleven overall team starts, including 5-0 last five away; and 11-2 as a dog this season… Orioles: Hellickson 1-7 last 8 overall team starts… With Hellickson 2-8 at night as opposed to 8-2 during the day this season, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Jesse Schule
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -115
The Red Sox have outscored Cleveland 18-12 in the first two games of this series, and I like Boston in Game 3 Wednesday night. Rick Porcello will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's had a terrible season so far. The 2016 Cy Young winner has lost four straight, but he's pitched well enough to win in all of those games. He allowed four runs on six hits, striking out five in seven innings in a home loss to Kansas City his last time out. He hasn't faced Cleveland yet this year, but won his only start against the Indians in 2016. The Tribe will hand the ball to Trevor Bauer, who is coming off a pair of outstanding starts at home. He hasn't had much luck on the road, going 3-5 with a 6.69 ERA in nine starts. The Red Sox have hit Bauer hard in past meetings, batting a combined .300 with a home run and eight RBIs in 40 at bats. Mookie Betts is 3-for-5 with a home run and four RBIs lifetime versus Bauer.
Cappers Club
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Indians +113
The Indians are looking to avoid the sweep after falling in a crazy game that saw both teams continue to battle back.
The Indians struggles come on the heels of a 9 game winning streak and this team has been fortunate enough to be where they are, in first place still.
Trevor Bauer gets the ball after arguably his best start of the season. He allowed just 1 run against the Angels and with Josh Tomlin getting injured, the rotation spot is his for the time being. Look for him to really pitch with a chip on his shoulder, knowing that is the case for the near future.
Some trends to note. Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Lets take the Tribe at plus money, avoiding the sweep.
Sean Murphy
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -150
Pirates starter Trevor Williams has turned in back-to-back quality outings, on the road no less, and keeping in mind he was on the mound for a victory in his most recent start here at PNC Park as well, I expect him to turn in another stellar performance on Wednesday night.
The Reds will hand the ball to Robert Stephenson. He joined the rotation in mid-July and has been shaky in two starts since, giving up eight earned runs on 12 hits over 9 2/3 innings of work. Cincinnati dropped both of those games - both coming against the Marlins.
Both of these teams have endured disappointing campaigns but at least the Pirates have managed to post a winning record at PNC Park. Meanwhile, the Reds check in 17 games under .500 on the road.
Teddy Davis
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -1½
After dropping game 1 yesterday I expect the Yankees to bounce back here with a win fairly easily. They have been rolling as of late winning 7 of their last 9 games.
Zimmermann just isnt the same the pitcher he use to be and the books are finally catching on. His road record is 1-5 with a 6.67 ERA. In 11 road starts he has been very prone to giving up the long ball which is a concern facing the Yankees. In total he has gave up 14 in those 11 games.
I know Tanaka doesn't have great overall ERA numbers but I think he has been unlucky. Just look at his strikeout ratio to walks. He has struck out 132 to only 27 walks on the season. He also enter this game in great form with a 3.32 ERA his last three starts.
Ben Burns
Indians vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 10
With Sale taking on Carrasco, yesterday's game was expected to be a pitcher's duel. However, that game resulted in an unlikely slug-fest, the teams combining for 22 runs. I don't expect to even half that many here though. Porcello has finally started to come around. He's got a 3.43 ERA and 1.048 WHIP his last three starts, all of them of the quality variety. With all three of those games falling below the total, the "under" is now 13-8-1 when he's taken the mound this season. Bauer's overall numbers remain poor. However, he's off an 8-inning gem last time out, limiting the Angels to a single run. Yesterday's game had an O/U line of seven. When these two pitchers faced each other last season, the teams combined for nine runs, a game which had an O/U line of 8.5. Considering the current form of the starters, an O/U line of 10 is generously high.
Jim Feist
Cleveland at Boston
Pick: Over
Fenway is a hitter's park and Cleveland is in town ranked #9 in baseball in runs scored, #4 in on-base percentage. Starter Trevor Bauer (5.28 ERA) walks too many batters, 42 in 106 innings along with 113 hits allowed. He i 3-5 on the road with a 6.69 ERA. Boston is ranked #12 in runs scored, #8 in on-base percentage. Rick Porcello (4-14, 4.55 ERA) somehow won the Cy Young last season but he has returned to his old form, with batters hitting .291 off him. He has an ERA over 5 at home. And the Over is 7-2 when Porcello faces the American League Central.
Larry Ness
Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Pick: Kansas City +112
The Royals came to Baltimore having won 10 of 11 (while averaging 7.3 runs!) and were looking to 'reel in' the first-place Indians in the AL Central at the expense of the Orioles. However, KC has lost 2-1 and 7-2 Monday and Tuesday. The Royals now look to avoid to avoid a sweep by Baltimore on Wednesday night. The Orioles have suddenly won four in a row to move within two games of .500 (52-54) and close within 3 1/2 games of the Royals for the second AL wild card spot. Baltimore opened 22-10 but it's been a struggle since but just maybe, the Orioles have a second strong run in them down the stretch.
The Orioles will go for a three-game sweep by welcoming Jeremy Hellickson (6-5 with a 4.73 ERA for the Phillies in 2017) to the rotation on Wednesday, while the Royals counter with All-Star lefty Jason Vargas (13-4, 3.00 ERA), who ranks second to only Clayton Kershaw in the moneyline standings (plus-$1280). Vargas was lit up for six runs in 2.2 innings against Detroit in his first start after the All-Star break but was much better in his last two outings, allowing a total of three runs in 11 innings (both KC wins). Vargas is seeing Baltimore for the first time this season and is just 3-3 in nine career starts against them (teams are 4-5), despite a 1.92 ERA,
Hellickson is the kind of veteran the Orioles hope can stabilize the back end of the rotation but he was kicked around for six runs on seven hits in five innings in his Philadelphia finale against Milwaukee on July 22. The vet has surrendered 22 HRs in 112 1/3 innings for the Phillies, just three shy of tying his career high. Hellickson is 2-2 with a 4.97 ERA in seven career starts vs KC (teams are 4-3).
The KC bats have suddenly gone quiet against Baltimore (three runs on only hits in B2B losses), which makes little sense against a Baltimore pitching staff which owns a ERA on the season. I'm no fan of Hellickson, either. He opened the year with teh Phillies winning eight of his first nine starts but since that red-hot start, the Phillies lost NINE of his last 11 starts! Also, a check of the record book reveals he owns a 5.01 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) at Camden Yards. Meanwhile, Vargas is 6-2 with a 3.35 ERA in nine road starts (KC is 7-2) plus don't forget his 1.92 ERA in nine career starts against Baltimore.
Brandon Lee
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -138
I'll gladly back Chicago at this price at home against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. The Cubs continued their impressive play of late with a 16-4 blowout win over Arizona on Tuesday. Chicago is now 14-3 since returning from the All-Star break and are in a great position to add another victory with the surging Jake Arrieta on the mound. Arrieta has a 2.33 ERA and 0.827 WHIP over his last 3 starts, looking more and more like the guy who dominated the past two seasons. Arizona will send out Zack Godley, who despite a strong outing in his last start has a 4.82 ERA and 1.232 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
John Martin
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners +101
The Seattle Mariners are hot right now. They have won four in a row and have scored 23 runs over the past three contests. The Texas Rangers are clearly in 'sell' mode after trading away Yu Darvish and Johnathan Lucroy. The Rangers are going in the other direction as they have lost four in a row. Ariel Miranda has held his own this season at 7-4 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts. He pitched 6 innings without allowing a single earned run in his only previous start against Texas, an 8-3 Mariners' victory. Andrew Cashner is 0-3 in five previous starts against the Mariners and his teams are 1-4 in those five games. The Mariners are 6-0 in road games following a one-run win this season. Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine road games overall. The Rangers are 3-13 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record.