Check out Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, August 3rd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TWINS AT INDIANS
PLAY: TWINS +170
Tyler Duffey has been horrible lately for the Twins, they’re a last place team, and there’s no way they’re winning three straight from the Indians, right?
I’m not about to suggest I’ll be surprised if Cleveland bounces back tonight. They’re the better baseball team, and while Trevor Bauer hasn’t been sensational lately, he’s the better starting pitcher here.
But that’s where the betting line and value comes into play. As awful as the overall record is for the Twins, they’ve been playing good baseball for some time now. The 5-1 in their last six is nice, but more impressive is the Twins 17-10 ledger over their last 27 games. The youth movement that’s now fully underway for Minnesota is paying dividends, as these kids are playing good baseball and gaining confidence and experience in the process. The bullpen work has been vastly improved of late, and the offense is clicking as well.
There’s also a fascinating little stat on the Twins that one would not think is even possible. The Twins are at 42-64 for the season, which still stinks. But when playing off a win, Minnesota actually has a more than respectable 54% win rate.
The Indians are clearly the rightful favorite in this game. But -180 is higher than I feel it ought to be. Using three different sets of models, the average price is Cleveland -131. That means snaring +170 is a decent bet as far as value is concerned, and I’m willing to throw a bet on the Twins at the big price this evening.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Kansas City +119
The Royals are a live dog here tonight. August seems to be when they get hot as they are 40-18. They have handles Tampa Bay rather well winning 15 of 18 against them including all 5 this season. They Rays are a dismal 5-10 as a home favorite in this range and hit just .225 at home. KC has Volquez going and he has been dominant vs Tampa going 3-0 with a 2.35 Era. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 19 innings against them. Tampa Counters with J. Odorizzi who has been lit up by the Royals going 0-3 with a 7.47 Era. Look for the Royals to take down Tampa again.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -122
The Detroit Tigers head into Wednesday's meeting with the Chicago White Sox riding a seven-game winning streak. They've scored at least 10 runs in three of their last four games, and I think they can get to Chicago's ace Chris Sale tonight.
Sale (14-4, 3.17 ERA will make his second start since serving a five-game team suspension after cutting up throwback uniforms prior to a scheduled start against the Tigers. The White Sox are 2-5 in Sale's last seven starts at Comerica Park and he has struggled with Victor Martinez who is 18-for-36 with 4 home runs off the left-hander. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit turns to rookie sensation Michael Fulmer (9-2, 2.50). He's allowed a total of seven earned runs through 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts combined, but both were on the road. He's 2-0 with a minuscule 1.42 ERA in four starts home in Detroit.
Tigers are 14-2 in Fulmer's last 16 starts, and I think the White Sox will struggle with the right-hander.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Mariners
Play: Red Sox -114
Edges - Red Sox: Rick Porcello 8-0 with 2.97 ERA last 8 overall team starts; and 4-0 team starts versus A.L. West foes this season. 7-3 career team starts in this series, including 3-0 here. Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma 0-2 with 14.17 ERA last two home starts in this series. With Porcello in strong KW form with 22 Ks and 5 BBs his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Bob Harvey
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
The Cincinnati Reds look to hand the Cardinals their fourth straight loss when the two teams square off in St. Louis. Game time is set for 7:10 PM ET at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals The Reds (43-62, 25-28 home) Scott Schebler, who was called up from the minors Tuesday to take Jay Bruce's roster spot, slammed a three run walk-off three-run homer hours later for the Reds. Schebler capped a three-hit night with his dramatic blast to seal the 7-5 victory while Adam Duvall also went deep to take over the team lead with 26 homers. It was the third straight for St. Louis (56-50, 31-20 road) as they begin to turn their attentions to next season.
Veteran Michael Wacha (6-7, 4.38 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Cards as he looks to stretch his unbeaten string to eight starts. He hasn't been dominant during the undefeated stretch, giving up 10 hits versus the Dodgers on July 22 and lasting only four innings in his previous turn vs. the Marlins. Wacha is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA versus the Reds.
It’s somewhat amazing that rookie Cody Reed (0-5, 7.05) is still in the starting rotation. He was hammered for six runs in a loss at San Francisco last time out and has failed to work beyond five innings in five of his last six outings.
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings while 20 of Wacha’s past 25 games have stayed below the total. St. Louis is 8-2 to the OVER in its last 10 games.
Jim Feist
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Under
Oakland heads out on the road with a struggling offense, 22nd in runs, 27th in on-base percentage. Oakland is on a 6-2-1 run under the total. Starter Kendall Graveman is throwing well, allowing 3 earned tuns or less in five straight starts, as well as 8 of the last 9. Graveman (7-7) gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in Friday's 5-3 loss to the Indians. He finished a stellar July with a 2.68 ERA and four wins. The LA Angels are 6-2-1 under the total at home against a right-handed starter. Jered Weaver allowed a single run on six hits and two walks over 5.2 innings Thursday, striking out two Red Sox in a no-decision, a 2-1 game.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals at Reds
Pick: Over 9
With the Reds 7-5 win yesterday the over is now 23-10 in their divisional games this season. Cincinnati has now scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their last 13 games and their lineup should keep it rolling today. The problem will be their pitching. Cody Reed gets the start for the Reds and the young southpaw has struggled to say the least. Cincinnati is 0-7 in his starts this season and the over is 6-1 in those outings. The over is 18-10 in Cardinals games against left-handed starters and with Reed having a 7.06 ERA on the season this game will feature plenty of runs early and often. That's because the Cards starting pitcher for Wednesday is not exactly "on top of his game" right now. Wacha has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last 3 starts and 8 of his 10 road starts this season have gone over the total. With yesterday's game totaling 12 runs, the over is now a perfect 6-0 in St Louis' last 6 games. I am expecting the over to improve to 10-4 in Cardinals road games where they are a road fave of -125 to -150 this season. The over is 46-28 in Reds games against right-handed starters and Wacha has been ripped for 21 hits in his last 16 innings.
Chase Diamond
Giants vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies
This game features the Giants at 61-45 and the Phillies at 49-59. Phillies are fresh off a win yesterday and I think they can do it again today with a hungry Aaron Nola on the mound he has struggled since his hot start but this guy has the stuff to compete in the big leagues and Johnny Cueto didn't have his best stuff last time out and I think he will be hitable again tonight. Nola's main issue is his sinker has only been hitting 88 mph and he needs it to be at 91 to be effective I believe he will be back in form tonight. The public is all over the Giants after a rare loss yesterday. 74% are backing the Giants yet this line has crashed from -190 to -166 a big move.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox -115
The price is right on Boston tonight as a small road favorite against the Mariners. The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello, who has been a major bright spot in the rotation this season. He's 14-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 21 starts. He's got a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off a complete game 2-run outing at LA in his last start. Seattle counters with Hisashi Iwakuma has a very mediocre 4.21 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 21 starts and is coming off a bad outing against the Cubs, where he allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings of work. Iwakuma also owns an ugly 8.18 ERA and 1.955 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Red Sox.
Brandon Lee
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8
The books have set the bar way too high for this one. We have two of the best starters in the AL facing off against one another. Chicago sends out ace Chris Sale, who is 14-4 with a 3.17 ERA in 20 starts overall and 7-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 road starts. Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer, who is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 starts and owns a 1.42 ERA in 4 home starts. Detroit won yesterday's game 11-5, which is helping keep this total high, but the UNDER is 11-1 in the Tigers last 12 after they scored 10 or more runs in their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays -130
Tampa Bay is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Royals. While Kansas City has won the first two games of this series, they are still just 3-8 in their last 11 overall. The Royals are also just a mere 19-36 on the road this season.
The key here is the starting pitching matchup. I'll gladly take my chances here with Jake Odorizzi over Edinson Volquez. Odorizzi has been lights out of late. He's got a 0.87 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in his last 3 starts and hasn't allowed a run in two straight outings (14 2/3 innings). Volquez on the other hand is coming off a miserable outing at Texas, where he allowed 6 runs on 9 hits and two walks in 6 innings of work. With the loss, Volquez is now 2-6 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.626 WHIP in 9 road starts.
Rays are 8-3 in Odorizzi's last 11 starts after a quality start in his last outing and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a right-handed starter. Royals are just 1-8 in their last 9 following a win and 0-4 in Volquez's last 4 starts against the AL East.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles at Colorado
Pick: Colorado
The Rockies are the hottest team in the major leagues, coming into Wednesday night's home game versus LA as winners of 10 of their last 12. Tyler Anderson will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and the rookie has been fantastic, especially in Colorado. Anderson (3-3, 3.33 ERA) allowed a single run on seven hits over six innings in a 2-1 win over the Mets his last time out. He's 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in six starts at Coors Field. The Dodgers hand the ball to Brock Stewart, who is making his second major league start. The rookie was rocked in his debut, surrendering five runs on eight hits in five innings in a loss to the Brewers. Facing a hot Colorado lineup in the most notorious hitter's park in baseball isn't exactly ideal for the 24 year old. The Dodgers have lost six of their last eight at Coors Field, and the Rockies are riding a five game win streak at home.
Dwayne Bryant
Toronto Blue at Houston
Play: Under 8
Toronto's Marco Estrada has allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts and 16 of 18 overall. Houston's Collin McHugh had allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight starts before getting lit up by Detroit in his last start (8 runs on 10 hits in just 1.2 innings). So this is a huge bounce-back spot at home for McHugh. Both bullpens are solid, and the Astros' pen is among the best in the league.
Buster Sports
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -126
St. Louis took a bad loss last night giving up 3 runs in the ninth inning to lose 7-5. We look for them to bounce back tonight. The Cardinals send RH Michael Wacha (6-7, 4.38 ERA) to the mound and he has had an up and down year, but against the Reds in his career he has a 5-1 record with a 1.96 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.089. The Reds send LH Cody Reed (0-5, 7.07 ERA) to the hill and the rookie has had a tough time of things in the majors as his 7.07 ERA and WHIP of 1.79 would suggest. The Reds have lost all of Reed's 7 starts and tonight will be no different. Backing our selection is the fact that the Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.