Scott Spreitzer
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -138
Junior Guerra continues to be one of the best pitchers in the National League without much fanfare as he is 7-2 with a 2.70 ERA. In fact, the Brewers are on a 6-0 run when he starts against teams with a losing record. Guerra gave up one run and four hits in 8 2/3 innings his last start against Pittsburgh and he pitched well his previous three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA on the road and already has pitched six shutout innings against San Diego this season. The Padres are 26th in the major leagues with a .696 OPS at home and they have won just three of 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP below 1.15. Edwin Jackson is with his 11th team after being traded by Miami and he gave up six runs and 10 hits in five innings in a 6-0 loss against Cincinnati on Friday. Milwaukee hitters have a combined 1.038 OPS against Jackson and he has allowed nine runs in 11 1/3 innings at Petco Park this season.
Oskeim Sports
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -190
Chicago falls into one of my best MLB systems that is 39-3 (92.9%; +34.1 units) since 2010 and invests on certain National League favorites, priced between -150 and -240, that are matched up against an opponent with a team batting average of less than .256. This system is also 22-1 (95.7%; +20.2 units) over the last three seasons and 55-12 (82.1%; +33.6 units) overall since 1997.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are a profitable 61-27 in their last 88 home games, 36-16 in their last 52 home games versus teams with a winning record, 45-17 in their last 62 home games versus right-handed starters and 65-29 in their last 94 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30.
In contrast, Miami is a money-burning 0-8 in Tom Koehler's last 8 starts versus .501 or greater opposition and 2-6 in their last 8 starts versus National League Central opposition. The Marlins have also dropped four straight games at Wrigley Field. Koehler has allowed just one earned run in his past 15 innings, but those starts came against the Phillies.
Koehler owns a 4.55 ERA, 4.54 FIP and a 5.07 xFIP on the road this season, together with a 15.1% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate and a 3.8% K-BB%. The 30-year-old's 3.33 ERA in July is undermined by a 4.65 FIP, a 4.87 xFIP and a declining strikeout rate (5.33 K/9). Koehler has also been aided by an unsustainable .200 BABIP in the second half.
Finally, Chicago veteran hurler John Lackey has excelled at Wrigley Field this season, posting a 2.73 ERA in 69.1 innings of work. He has done well in keeping the ball in the yard (0.91 HR/9) and owns a decent 23.4% K% (8.31 K/9) at home. With the home team standing at 4-0 in umpire Marty Foster's last four games behind home plate (Marlins 2-9 L/11 with Foster wearing the mask), take the Cubs to complete the sweep.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA +114 over Pittsburgh
Not the least bit interested in the Pirates as road chalk with Jeff Locke on the mound. Aside from Pittsburgh appearing to be completely disinterested in competing, Locke is a huge risk even when things are going well. Locke has a mere 60 K’s in 107 frames for one of the lowest strikeout rates among qualified starters. He also has an ugly 1.47 WHIP. In early June, Locke made a mechanical adjustment, altered between-start routine and intensified focus on getting ahead. His first-pitch strike rate improved but his ERA never got the memo. The result is that there is potential for some small control gains if it continues, but Locke’s subpar strikeout rate, .287 oppBA and 5.43 ERA cloud the overall outlook. This is a starter to avoid like hell when favored on the road.
Rob Whalen makes his first MLB start here. Whalen and John Gant joined the Braves at the 2015 trade deadline when the Braves sent Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to the Mets. After joining the Braves in 2015, Whalen made three starts in late July before having knee surgery. The right-hander succeeds with plus deception and excellent command of all his pitches. Hitters have difficulty picking up the ball out of his hand, which makes his average fastball with solid sink more effective. He generates a lot of swings and misses with his curveball, which has a tight three-quarters tilt and was considered to be the best bender in the Mets system in 2014. Whalen also shows a good feel for his changeup and slider, with both potential solid-average pitches with improvement. Whalen was dominating at Double-A over 101 innings at Mississippi before being summoned to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he also dominated. However, he only threw 18 innings for Gwinnett (1.93 ERA with 18 K’s in those 18 innings) before getting this call to Atlanta. This kid has dominated at every level and it would surprise us not if he thrived in his first game in the majors against what appears to be a disinterested Pittsburgh squad.
CINCINNATI +129 over St. Louis
If you were thinking of betting the Cardinals in what appears to be a reasonable price, we would be concerned about fatigue setting in on Michael Wacha. Through the first five months of 2015, Wacha owned a 2.69 ERA but things went off the rails in August and September (7.88 ERA). Wacha logged 109.1 innings in 2014, as he missed 74 days due to a stress reaction in his shoulder and then jumped to 185.2 innings in 2015. This year he is up to 121 innings, so it’s fair to wonder if he’ll come off the rails again. His skills are starting to paint a fuzzy picture once again. Wacha has been tagged for 21 hits and nine earned runs over his past 16 innings. After 80 pitches in his last start, he completely ran out of gas and was yanked. Wacha has a concerning 1.40 WHIP this season but that WHIP is at 1.48 since the beginning of July. Other signs of fatigue are the five jacks he’s surrendered over his last 22 innings and his 56% first-pitch strike rate over that same stretch. Wacha has shown glimpses of greatness every year but he’s also had endurance issues every year, which seems to be more prevalent than his greatness right now. Wacha has proven he’s not to be trusted late in the year.
Cody Reed is a rookie lefty with just seven starts and an ugly 7.07 ERA. Reed is not going to attract much market attention here but the fact that an established pitcher like Wacha is such a small favorite over what appears to be a struggling rookie tells us that the odd makers may have something up their proverbial sleeves here.
Surface stats can be very misleading and in the case of Cody Reed that’s precisely what we’re seeing. Reed was impressive in his debut, though he did allow two, two-run home runs to account for the four earned runs he allowed in seven innings. He had 9 K/3 BB while recording 62 strikes among 92 pitches. He now has 37 K’s in 36 innings. He has an elite 58% groundball rate over his last five starts and a 52% overall rate. The damage to Reed’s ERA has been done by an unlucky strand rate and a hugely unlucky 32% hr/f rate. That hr/f rate is completely insane that will inevitably regress to a more normal number.
A raw-tools bet by the Royals in the second round of 2013 that looks to be paying off, Reed broke out in a huge way across two levels last year and saw himself packaged alongside Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb for Johnny Cueto. At 6’5” and 220 pounds, Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in the mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97, and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. Like with so many other talented youngsters, there are usually bumps in the road before they thrive but Reed can throw a gem at any time and has #1 starter potential. The Cardinals are certainly beatable and this is one of those games in which the price on St. Louis (Cards opened as -130) looks far too enticing for the unsuspecting. Beware.
HOUSTON +100 over Toronto
Colin McHugh comes in with a 4.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after 21 starts. That provides us with a solid, buy low opportunity due to his combination of poor results and strong, established skills. McHugh’s swing and miss rate is excellent, consistent, and substantiates his 8+ K’s/9 level. His curveball generates whiffs at a high rate (19%) and has proven an effective "out pitch" over the years. McHugh has 111 K’s in 116 innings with 34 walks issued but his balls thrown % agree that McHugh deserves a better rate than that. Recently, McHugh has traded line drives for ground balls (2015) and fly-balls (2016), yet somehow his hit rate has grown, rather than reducing, as one might expect. This despite allowing less hard contact than the average starting pitcher (McHugh: 29%, 2016 MLB avg: 32%). McHugh’s season does not look great on paper despite maintaining skills that aren't much different than his breakout, 2014 season, where he posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. As usual, best to trust the skills and wait for the results to follow. McHugh is now a dog at home against the Blue Jays with Marco Estrada going.
The Blue Jays have an entire country backing them, not just the city. They lead the league in attendance and they probably lead it in viewership too so when we have negative things to say about Marco Estrada, a plethora of backlash follows because nobody wants to believe that he’s been lucky for close to 300 innings over the past two years. We have nothing to gain by suggesting he’s lucky. We also have no biases towards any players or teams. We apply the same theories to Estrada as we do to anyone else and if he throws a no-hitter here, it changes nothing. Skills analysis is rarely wrong and it says that Estrada has been on the extreme side of good fortune.
After a 2015 season in which Marco Estrada benefited greatly from a low hit rate, he didn’t get much respect heading into 2016. But lo and behold, Estrada maintains his low hit rate (and ERA) in 2016. While his season was briefly derailed by a back injury in early July, he has returned and acquitted himself well. The problem is that Estrada’s skills do not match his ERA. It’s not just batted balls in play luck; he’s also benefited from a high strand rate. His xERA, his pedestrian 88-mph fastball and his high fly-ball rate of 47% all say there should be some regression at some point. Furthermore, Estrada’s 40% (!!!) first-pitch strike rate over his last seven starts and 54% overall rate reveals that he is rarely ahead in the count. So, what we have here is a pitcher that falls behind in the count often, that has a huge fly-ball profile and that throws 88 MPH heat dominating major-league batters. The wheels are going to fall off and once that inevitably happens, it may never stop. At least Bartolo Colon throws strikes so his dominance is more understandable. Estrada’s dominance defies everything about pitching that we have learned over the past seven decades. Sell high friends.
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +4½ over Hamilton
The last time we saw quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, they were setting league records in a comeback win over the Eskimos in Week 5. While the end of that game was 37-31 in favor of the ‘Cats, for the first 35 minutes Hamilton's effort was non-existent. In the marketplace however, the Ti-Cats are getting a ton of respect. They’re also coming off a bye, which stops that momentum they gained after a great half of football. While we completely respect what the Tiger-Cats are doing without their #1 QB, their only three wins have occurred against Toronto, Montreal and Edmonton. Let us remind you that they trailed Edmonton 31-6 before the Eskies quit, melted down or whatever it is you call that. In Hamilton’s victory over Montreal, the ‘Cats were outgained by 10 yards. Hamilton has not dominated any statistical category in any single game this year and they have played one of the easier schedules. Now they’re being asked to spot significant road points in a league where spotting points this season has hit at a very low percentage.
While this market gives plenty of credit to Hamilton for their comeback win over the Eskies, it is not giving the same respect to the Bombers, who also went into Edmonton and won last week by seven. Winnipeg’s stats in that win were far better than Hamilton’s stats the week before in Edmonton. Both the Ti-Cats and Bombers have used the Eskies as a stepping stone to turn their seasons around, but it's the complete game by the Bombers that sticks out to us and perhaps we should have seen it coming. You see, Winnipeg has played the toughest schedule in the CFL. They have played Calgary twice, Edmonton twice, Hamilton once and the #1 ranked defense of the Montreal Alouettes. Despite that, Winnipeg leads the CFL in first downs per game. This is a team that has been moving the sticks all season but has not finished enough drives. That’s a tweak that can be corrected.
In Week 3, as a 9-point choice, Hamilton lost outright 28-24 to these Bombers back in Hamilton. Winnipeg outgained the Ti-Cats by 70 yards. This week Hamilton is a -4½ point favorite in Winnipeg against a Blue Bombers’ team that's coming into this one with a new found confidence behind quarterback Matt Nichols. Nichols played with a chip on his shoulder last week and his confidence and work ethic resonated throughout the entire squad. Winnipeg has a decade's worth of stink around them so we can understand the market’s reluctance to get behind them. That provides us an opportunity to take back inflated points and it’s an opportunity we are not going to miss.
Bruce Marshall
Tampa Bay -1.5 +156
Jake Odorizzi was not moved by Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, which is good news for the Rays since Jake has been perhaps the hottest AL starter since the All-Star break, allowing just 2 runs in 20 2/3 IP and not giving up a run in his last two starts covering 14 2/3 IP. Meanwhile the Royals have won the last two nights at the Trop but have only scored six total runs, and starter Edinson Volquez is off of a poor effort at Texas, surrendering 6 runs (5 earned) and 9 hits over 6 IP last Friday.
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies -124
Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies are .500 and in playoff contention this late in the season for the first time in a very long time. They would love to climb over that .500 mark for the first time this season since May 18 with a win Wednesday.
I like their chances with Tim Anderson on the mound. He has arguably been Colorado's best starter this season, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in nine starts. Those are very impressive numbers considering six of those starts have come at Coors Field.
The Dodgers will be giving the ball to Brock Stewart for just the 2nd time this season. His first start did not go well as he gave up 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings of a 7-0 loss at Milwaukee on June 29. I don't foresee him having much success at Coors Field tonight, either.
The Dodgers are 1-9 (-8.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 this season. The Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games. Colorado is 4-0 in Anderson's last four starts.
Dave Price
New York Mets -116
We're getting a great price here with the New York Mets over the Yankees in the Subway Series. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 6 and were in sell mode prior to the trade deadline, so their spirits really aren't very high right now. The Mets have a big advantage on the mound in this one as well. Steven Matz is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 19 starts this year, including 5-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 9 road starts. Matz is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in one lifetime start against the Yankees as well, giving up only 1 earned run in 6 innings last September. Chad Green will be making his 4th start of the season for the Yankees. The first 3 have been lackluster as Green is 1-2 with a 7.54 ERA while allowing 14 runs, 12 earned, in 14 1/3 innings. The Mets are 9-3 in Matz's last 12 road starts.
Power Sports
Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The Rays just can't seem to beat the Royals as they're now 0-5 against them in 2016 (3-15 since the start of 2014) after dropping a 3-2 decision last night. I had thought they were primed to break through this week at Tropicana Field as KC came into this series having dropped 13 of 14 games that weren't started by Danny Duffy. That other win belonged to today's starter, Edinson Volquez, but unlike Duffy he does not have the number to indicate more victories are on the horizon. I'll call for TB to finally break through against the Royals tonight.
From the Rays perspective, I like the starting pitching matchup as they'll send out Jake Odorizzi. He has a 0.87 ERA his L3 starts and a 0.919 WHIP. He comes in riding a 14+ inning scoreless streak, having blanked both the Orioles and Yankees his last two times out. The Royals are the lowest scoring team in the entire American League this season, so this is a lineup that Odorizzi should handle. The Royals have not yet faced Odorizzi this season.
Over the L10 games, Kansas City has been held to three runs or fewer nine times. His last time out, Volquez gave up six runs in six innings and now has a 6.10 ERA/1.626 WHIP on the road (3-6 TSR). Let us not forget the Royals' road futility away from Kauffman Stadium this year as they are just 19-36 including a 2-13 record as a ML dog in the +125 to +150 range.
Chip Chirimbes
Blue Jays at Astros
Play: Astros
If it were just about pitching Toronto has a distinct advantage in tonight's match-up with Marco Estrada (6-4, 3.02 ERA) against Collin McHugh (7-7, 4.75). But, like Real Estate sometimes it's location, location location as the Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 home games and the Blue Jays are 3-13 in their last 16 meetings in Houston. Both starters are 1-0 against their respective opponents but the trends say it all.
Wunderdog
Oakland @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -109
Oakland has lost four straight and in last place in the AL West after Tuesday's 5-4 loss to the Angels. Jered Weaver takes the mound tonight after allowing one run and six hits in 5 2/3 innings his last start, which was a 2-1 win over Boston. Weaver has pitched well in three of his last four starts after a rough first half of the season. Weaver is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two appearances against the Athletics this season. Meanwhile, Kendall Graveman lost his last outing 5-3 at Cleveland when he gave up four runs and six hits in 6 1/3 innings. Graveman has pitched much better at home than on the road where he has a 5.15 ERA. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 11 home games and 11 of its last 16 meetings with Oakland.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 95-77 run with free picks: Pittsburgh at ATLANTA.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their road trip in Atlanta, after winning last night, 5-3. The Braves didn't really stand a chance last night, with the Bucs handing the ball to Gerrit Cole, but tonight I think Atlanta will thrive because of a young man who is making his MLB debut.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Meet Rob Whalen, who was cquired from the Mets last year, and will be making his big league debut tonight at Turner Field. The 22-year-old crafty northpaw owns a big curveball and a fastball that sits in the low 90s. He posted a 1.93 ERA in three starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, and he'll bring his best stuff tonight.
BOTTOM LINE is - Keep in mind, it's always important to give a starting pitcher a look in his big-league debut, as it means several things: he is pumped up for his big day and will work his arsenal to its extent and to the best of his ability. Plus, the opposition doesn't have a real scouting report and is seeing all his stuff for the first time.
5* BRAVES
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Blue Jays and Astros to get hooked up in another low-scoring affair from Minute Maid Park.
Last night the teams played to a 2-1 final in favor of the Jays. That was after Monday's meeting went 14 innings and also saw a 2-1 final in favor of the Astros.
Marco Estrada will take the mound for Toronto, and 12 of his 18 starts this season have held Under the total. Estrada is also 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA in 10 career appearances against Houston.
Colin McHugh is pitching to the Astros, and is off his worst start of the season. he should find his groove once again against a Toronto team he is 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 3 career starts.
The trend has been set with a pair of 2-1 finals, look for another low-scoring contest tonight in this meeting between Toronto and Houston.
2* TORONTO-HOUSTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
Wednesday night comp play is the Astros with McHugh over the Blue Jays and Estrada.
Been a tight series thus far, as both games have ended in 2-1 final scores. Houston winning Monday in 14 innings, Toronto evening things last night.
While Colin McHugh was just rocked in his last start, will side with him tonight to bounce-back, as Houston usually takes care of business at home.
The Astros enter with a 23-9 mark at Minute Maid Park their last 32 games at home. Houston also owns a 13-3 home mark over Toronto the last 16 times these American League teams have tangled at the Juice Box.
Both teams vying for playoff positioning, and Toronto's Marco Estrada certainly rates a the edge on the mound tonight, but the fact the Astros have been so tough at home has me siding with them in the third of four from Houston tonight.
1* HOUSTON