Free Picks for Wednesday, August 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Cardinals -118
The Cardinal righty has found the going tough at Miller Park this season, allowing 8 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 innings of work. He failed to get through six innings in both starts. One issue that may arise today is the right-handers propensity to give up home runs on one of his favorite pitches, his slider. Martinez owns nice BAA numbers, but he's allowed 10 home runs in the last 32 hits against his slider, according to MLB.com. Obviously, that's not great news when pitching at this venue. Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson, who owns terrific numbers in 18 starts in 2017. Anderson will make his third start since returning from injury and while he was limited to 73 pitches in his first outing, he threw 96 in his second and should have the freedom to fire away in this one. Anderson owns a 2.15 ERA in eight home starts this season, along with a .202 BAA and a WHIP under 1.00. He held the Cardinals in check with a 2.42 ERA in his five previous starts against them before this season and slammed the door on them at Miller Park in his one home start against STL in 2017. The Redbirds enter having won just 7 of their last 32 against starting pitchers with a WHIP under 1.15. We believe Anderson will be successful again.
Andre Ramirez
Cardinals vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9
I am siding with the Brewers in this contest. Anderson has only allowed three runs in ten innings since returning from the DL, and he features a minuscule 1.57 ERA over his last nine starts. In addition, Anderson owns a 2.70 career ERA against the Cardinals, so I am very confident backing him. Martinez has not been quite as sharp on the road this season, and overall Anderson has been the better pitcher.
The bookmakers have this total on the high side! According to my algorithms, I have the Brewers winning 5-2. Lay the money on the under here.
Tennis Insiders
C Suarez Navarro vs. M Lucic-Baroni
Play: M Lucic-Baroni +1½
We advised clients to fade Suarez Navarro on the game spread in her first round clash against Soylu (+6 Games), and courtesy of a bad beat the wager was a push (4-6/2-6) thanks to Soylu dropping 5 consecutive games after taking a 2-1 lead in the second set. Suarez Navarro is struggling in 2017, not playing the same level of tennis compared to recent years, and she's always struggled on grass/quick hard courts.
Little to separate either of these players despite the head-to-head, with Lucic-Baroni taking a set in two of the three previous meetings. Lucic-Baroni won a third set tiebreak to book her place in Round Two, expect her to carry that momentum into this tie and cover the set spread comfortably.
Big Al
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego -130
Padres LHP Travis Wood must have some mixed feelings about his situation right now. On the one hand, the 30-year-old veteran was traded from a playoff contender (the Royals) to a team that hasn't had anything close to a winning season in almost a decade. On the other hand, since he was traded to the Padres, Wood seems to have secured a full-time rotation job for the first time since 2014 having started in all six of the games he's appeared in. Wood was victimized by Giancarlo Stanton in his last start as all five runs he surrendered to the Marlins were driven in by the Major League home run leader (Stanton homered twice in that one). Needless to say, the Giants don't have Barry Bonds any more, or anyone else that is remotely close to Stanton at the plate. And Wood gets this start at his new home, which is a place that he really seems to like. The lefthander owns a 2.00 ERA in three starts at Petco Park since he was traded. The Giants will go with LHP Ty Blach, who will attempt to end his worst slump of the season as Blach is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six road starts vs. a team with a southpaw starter.
Jim Feist
Rays at Royals
Pick: Under
Tampa Bay is 13-3-1 under the total in Game 3 of a series. Jake Odorizzi has settled down, allowing 3 runs or less in five of his last six starts. Kansas City is #24 in baseball in runs scored. Jason Vargas (14-8 ) has been sharp and the Under is 12-5 in Vargas' last 17 home starts, and this shapes up as another pitcher's duel.
Jimmy Boyd
Mariners vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -133
Baltimore has won 6 straight to move within 1.5 games of the final Wild Card spot in the AL and I look for them to continue their winning ways Wednesday afternoon against the Mariners. While the Orioles are playing some of their best baseball of the season, Seattle has gone into a funk here of late and lost 4 straight. Not a big surprise given the circumstances, as this is now their 12th straight game on a grueling 12-game road trip.
I know the numbers aren't great for Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez, but the same can be said for Seattle's starter Ariel Miranda. This comes down to rolling with the hot team at the plate. Baltimore is coring 6.9 runs/game and hitting .313 with a .350 OBP over their last 7 games. The Mariners on the other hand are scoring 3.0 runs/game and hitting a mere .203 with a .264 OBP in their last 7.
Seattle is 10-22 in their last 32 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 at home against a left-handed starter, 61-26 in their last 87 home games against a team with a losing record and 30-10 in Jimenez's last 40 home starts.
Jack Jones
Giants vs. Padres
Play:Padres -130
The San Diego Padres are 34-31 at home this season while profiting backers 6.8 units. The San Francisco Giants are 22-46 on the road while losing backers 23 units. I think it's worth laying a little juice to back the Padres at home here Wednesday night.
Travis Wood comes in pitching well, going 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts. Wood has posted a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against San Francisco. He is no ace, but I trust him here to have a great start against this weak Giants lineup.
Ty Blach is having a decent season overall at 8-10 with a 4.67 ERA in 22 starts. But he is 3-5 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in nine road starts this season, and 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in his last three starts. The Giants are 0-3 in Blach's three career starts against San Diego.
Wood is 9-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last three seasons. The Giants are 1-5 in Blach's last six road starts. San Diego is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
Chase Diamond
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Marlins +205
This game features the 66-65 Marlins and the 8-51 Nationals. The Marlins are making a late run at the last wild card spot and are just 5.5 games back. The Nationals are 14 games up on the Marlins and are not gonna risk injury to anyone and that includes starter Stephen Srasburg who has looked good since coming back from injury but I don't see him going more then 5 innings today. Adam Conley is a pitcher you never know what you are gonna get he's either really on or really off. I can't pass on the hot hitting Marlins who are fighting hard for a spot in the Playoffs and love them here at +200 a big time value.
John Martin
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Red Sox +112
I don't agree that the Toronto Blue Jays should be favored here. They have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games to fall to 61-71 on the season. They are starting to realize they have nothing to play for now, and it's showing up in their performances. The Red Sox are trying to lock down the AL East. They have enjoyed the Rogers Centre in Toronto, going 6-0 in their last six trips there. Rick Porcello has been at his best on the road this season with a 3.96 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 road starts. J.A. Happ is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in his last two starts. He has given up 10 earned runs and 20 base runners in 11 innings during this stretch. The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings.
Chris Jordan
As I told you yesterday, it is tough to go against the league's most dominating baseball team, but I liked the Arizona Diamondbacks to upset the Los Angeles Dodgers last night. I'm taking the Snakes as my free play tonight, as the National League West rivals continue their three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix.
I'm not listing pitchers, as I believe Arizona's five-game win streak will provide enough momentum, just as I said last night in going against Rich Hill, who had to be the easiest go-against I've seen in quite some time. Anyone who thought he was mentally ready to bounce back doesn't have a clue.
The Diamondbacks have not only won five straight, but they're 43-23 at home after last night's 7-6 win over L.A. They're two games in front of the Colorado Rockies for the top wild-card spot, which all they can hope for at this point, since their 18 games back of the Dodgers in the West.
The Snakes have the fifth-best home batting average (.272) in the bigs, and third-best runs scored (367) at home.
Take Arizona here, as it shocks L.A. again.
1* DIAMONDBACKS
Jack Brayman
My free play is an early game, as I like the Baltimore Orioles to get things done over the Seattle Mariners.
Baltimore continues its ride after sweeping the American League East-leading Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, by extending their win streak to six games. Now sitting two games above .500, the Orioles are 1 1/2 games back from the second wild-card spot and they're 40-26 at home.
The momentum is real, and in hosting a west coast team that lost two straight in the Bronx against the New York Yankees over the weekend, and a third and fourth in a row in this series, I think the Orioles will continue to take advantage of a weary Mariners team.
Seattle, which will be playing its 12th road game in 13 days after previous trips to Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the Bronx.
I'm not listing pitchers. Just look for Baltimore to roll past Seattle in this one, while laying a cheap price doing so.
2* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Wednesday is on the Tigers and Rockies to make it 3 games played Under the total in as many days.
Just 7 runs combined on Monday for the Under. A few more last night, as the teams reached 10 total runs, but landed Under the total again.
The Tigers have now played all 5 on this road trip Under the total, while the Rockies enter Wednesday play having held Low in 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 games overall.
Justin Verlander has seen his last pair of starts, and 7 of his last 10 starts overall hold Under the total, while Chad Bettis has seen all 3 of his 2017 starts play Under the posted price.
Hard to argue those numbers.
Tigers-Rockies Under.
5* DETROIT-COLORADO UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Wednesday night is on the New York Yankees against the Cleveland Indians, and in this game I want you listing starting pitchers Trevor Bauer and Jaime Garcia.
Bauer himself said he didn’t have his best stuff his last time out, and even though he still picked up the win against the Boston Red Sox last Thursday, he allowed four runs, seven hits and three walks. Now I know this kid has not taken a loss since July 16, but this is a revenge game for the Yankees and Garcia.
New York's left-hander has yet to record a win in four starts, since the Yankees acquired him from the Twins on July 30 - including an Aug. 4 setback in Cleveland, where he was tagged for six runs on five hits and four walks. The Yankees have won two of the four games Garcia has started, and it's time for him to win one.
5* YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Phillies over the Braves.
They cannot beat them! I am speaking of Philadelphia when they face Atlanta.
Last night the Braves got a reprieve from Mother Nature, as the rain forced the teams to play a pair today.
Philly won on Monday, 6-1. That makes 7 straight series losses this year at the hands of the Phillies for Atlanta, and it also puts the Bravos at 2-12 in the season series!
Overall, the Braves have lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10, while the Phils are playing some free-and-easy baseball, claiming 2 of 3 off the Cubs over the weekend, and racking up 4 wins over their last 6 games played.
It will be RA Dickey opposing Jerad Eickhoff in the opener, and right now it could be Greg Maddux against Dicky Noles, and I would still back the Phillies based on the season series dominance.
Philly the call.
3* PHILADELPHIA - Game 1