BRANDON LEE
Tigers vs. Rockies
Play:Rockies -107
Colorado is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. Detroit is getting way to much respect here due to the fact that they are sending out Justin Verlander. The Tigers have been atrocious on the road this season and with little to nothing to play for figure to continue to struggle away from home down the stretch. Verlander is coming off a couple of strong starts, but is a mere 3-6 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in 14 road starts (3-11 team record). On the flip side of this, Colorado will give the ball to Chad Bettis, who has a respectable 3.79 ERA in 3 starts since joining the rotation earlier this month. Two of those starts have come at home and he was excellent in both of those outings, giving up a combined 3 runs on 14 hits in 14 innings (1.93 ERA).
DAVE PRICE
Athletics vs. Angels
Play: Angels -139
The Los Angeles Angels are only one game back in the AL wild card race. A big reason why has been the performance of Parker Bridwell, who is 7-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this year. The Angels have gone 11-2 (+12.6 units) in his 13 starts. Kendall Graveman is 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 6 road starts this year for the A's. The A's are 0-5 in Graveman's last 5 road starts. Oakland is 18-41 in its last 59 road games. The Angels are 9-2 in their last 11 home meetings with the A's.
Will Rogers
Athletics vs. Angels
Pick: Angels -141
The set-up: The Angels will wrap up a 10-game homestand looking for a three-game sweep of the A's. LA was 2-5 after the Rangers and Astros visited Anaheim but can now finish 5-5 with a win tonight, after 3-1 and 8-2 victories Monday and Tuesday (both wins coming without Mike Trout). Trout (stiff neck) hopes to be in the lineup on Wednesday, although he is mired in an 0-for-17 slump. The Angels remain one game behind the Twins for the second wild-card spot in the American League, while Oakland is just playing out the string, as its 58-74 record is better than only the Tigers and White Sox in the junior circuit.
The pitching matchup: Kendall Graveman (4-4 & 4.24 ERA) goes for Oakland and Parker Bridwell (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for LA. Graveman was on the DL for two-plus months and his return on Aug. 2 was a disatser. He allowed seven ERs in juts two innings of an 11-2 loss at San Francisco. A no-decision followed but he's won two of his last three, allowing just five ERs over 20 innings (2.25 ERA). Graveman is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Angels (team is 5-4). Bridwell just continues to impress. He did suffer his first loss in nine starts this past Friday but allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings against Houston in a 2-1 loss. He has yielded fewer than three ERs in four consecutive starts and in 10 of his last 12 while issuing more than one walk only once in his last eight outings. The Angels are 11-2 in Bridwell's 13 starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1232). He will be facing Oakland for the first time.
The pick: Graveman has pitched well his last three but Bridwell has been just terrific, since joining the rotation back on May 30. Take the Angels.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -113
After getting swept at home in a three-game series by the Orioles this past weekend, the Red Sox have won 6-5 (Monday) and 3-0 (Tuesday) in Toronto. Boston now owns a four-game lead over the NY Yankees atop the AL East. As for Toronto, nine losses in its last 11 games has left the Blue Jays at 62-71, 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot. If that's not all, the Blue Jays would have to climb over SEVEN other teams to reach 'the promised land' of a wild card berth.
Rick Porcello (8-15, 4.57 ERA) starts for Boston and J.A. Happ (6-10, 4.10 ERA) for Toronto. Porcello led the major leagues with 22 wins in 2016, while winning the AL's Cy Young award. Boston was 25-8 (plus-$1470) in all of his starts, giving him MLB's third-best moneyline mark. However, as the saying goes, what a difference a year makes! Boston is 12-15 in his starts, giving him MLB's sixth-worst moneyline mark (minus-$816). Porcello is 7-7 with a 4.70 ERA in 17 career starts against Toronto (teams are 8-9). Happ has been pounded in his last two outings, allowing 10 ERs on 17 hits in just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). After going 20-4 in 2016 (Toronto was 24-8, plus-$1189 in all of his starts), the Jays are just 7-12 in Happ's 2017 starts, minus-$816 (7th-worst moneyline mark in MLB).
However, Happ was 2-0 (2.79 ERA) and Toronto 3-0 in three starts against Boston last year, while in one start against them here in 2017, he allowed just two ERs over five innings of a no-decision. I'll take a shot with Toronto.
Chip Chirimbes
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +103
Los Angeles who has dropped three-straight games for the first time since June 6th are still winning at a 70% clip and still lead the NL West by 18 games over Arizona tonight's opponent. The D'backs are 2-games ahead of Colorado for the top NL Wild Card spot and will send Robbie Ray (10-5, 3.06 ERA) to the hill who is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 11 starts against LA and he's up against another lefty in the Dodgers Hyun Ryu (5-6, 3.34) who is 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA in eight starts against Arizona.
Ben Burns
White Sox White Sox / Twins
Play: Twins
These same two starters just faced each other, at Chicago. Holland got the better of Berrios in that 8/24 contest. With this evening's rematch being played at Minnesota, expect Berrios and co. to return the favor. Berrios is 7-1 with a superb 2.87 ERA and 0.90 WHIP at home. On the other hand, Holland is 3-6 with an ugly 7.82 ERA and 1.755 WHIP on the road. While Holland averages 4.9 innings per road start, Berrios averages 6 2/3 innings per home start. Payback time.
Wunderdog
San Francisco @ San Diego
Pick: San Diego -127
San Diego improved to 34-31 at home with a 6-3 win over the Giants, which was its eighth win in the last 11 meetings. Travis Wood goes tonight and he has made just one appearance against San Francisco this season and allowed no runs or hits in 2 2/3 innings. Last year Wood pitched five scoreless innings against the Giants. San Francisco is 22-46 on the road and 40 games out of first place as it can't wait to end its miserable season. The Giants have lost five of Ty Blach's last seven starts and five of his last six road starts. Also, the Giants have lost five of their last six road games versus left-handed starters and 15 of their last 22 overall against southpaw starters. Hitters have adjusted to Blach, who has been knocked around to the tune of 16 runs on 23 hits his last three outings in 16 1/3 innings. The Padres scored five runs on eight hits in seven innings against him on July 23.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit -1½ +180 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
21-36 + 21.15 units
N.Y. Mets +136 over CINCINNATI
Rafael Montero has pitched better than his surface numbers would indicate, especially lately. Montero has 27 K’s over his past 26 innings with a supported 12% swing and miss rate. His unlucky 68% strand rate is the reason his ERA is so high at 5.64. This is a starter with very good stuff that averages 94 MPH on his fastball. He’ll mix in a change and a slider to give him three legit pitches. Throw in a 48% groundball rate and a very respectful 4.09 xERA and there is no question as to which starter holds the value here.
Homer Bailey shouldn’t be favored over the Las Vegas 51’s (New York’s’ PCL affiliate), let alone the Mets. Bailey left his last outing due to irritation in the back of his right shoulder but to our delight, he’ll go today and he’s favored. Bailey is on the road back to full health after May 2015 TJS. A bad finish in six late starts last year and a lack of usable skills shouldn't come as a surprise given his lingering biceps tenderness. There was a lot to like pre-surgery, including a rising groundball rate and solid command-related skills but that was then and this is now. Bailey was hammered for eight earned runs in his first 2017 start, allowing six hits with 3 BB/2 K in 1.2 IP. He hasn’t been much better in 11 other starts. Bailey has walked 17 over his past 23 innings. His 30% line-drive rate would be the third worst in baseball among starters but he does not qualify. To us, he qualifies beautifully. This is a starter with a 7.99/6.62 ERA/xERA split that is 0-4 at Great American Ballpark with a 12.10 ERA. Nuff said.
Pittsburgh +185 over CHICAGO
Ivan Nova quietly has gone on a nice run since the All-Star Break. He has a 3.91 xERA since then and that mark has been accompanied by some excellent command sub-indicators: 11% swing and miss rate, 70% first-pitch strike rate and a 31% ball%. A crazy 41% hit rate and 27% hr/f have inflated his surface stats (6.67 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). There's some significant positive regression coming here and while it may not occur here, we’re willing to take our chances when the take-back is this high.
Pitching for the South Side for years, Jose Quintana was never close to being consistently priced so high and that’s because he was the South Side's proficient, easily-projected lefty that was slightly above average and never anything more. Jose Quintana then gets shipped to the Cubs and suddenly he’s priced like he’s Clayton Kershaw almost every outing. Quintana is the same serviceable pitcher he was on the other side of town as he is now. In fact, he might even be slightly worse. Quintana’s WHIP over his last five starts is an atrocious 1.52. He has 28 K’s in his past 27 frames but he’s also walked 12 over that span. His 9% swing and miss rate does not even come close to supporting the 162 K’s in 150 innings that he’s posted this year. Quintana has never put up strikeout numbers like he is right now and the sub-indicators say that is in for regression too. Quintana’s ERA since joining the Cubs is worse than his ERA before he came over. His ERA over his past five starts is 6.00 with an xERA of 5.01. We understand that the Cubbies are not the White Sox but Quintana was pitching for the South Side at a time in which they were a better team than the Cubbies and he was rarely priced in this range unless it was against a complete blow-up artist. Of course Quintana and the Cubs can win going away here, as that would not surprise us one bit. Chicago is hot and the Pirates are not. However, we’re value players and Pittsburgh is among the leaders in fewest team strikeouts. They’ll put the ball in play and they should have the opportunity to string together some hits in the same inning. All told, Jose Quintana is simply not good enough to be a 2-1 favorite every time he pitches at Wrigley. We’re simply playing the value here.
Buster Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
Play: Pittsburgh +183
We are going to take a flyer today for our free play with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Pirates RH Ivan Nova (11-11, 3.97 ERA) and he will face the Cubs LH Jose Quintana (8-11, 4.49 ERA) Nova has had a rough couple of months for the Pirates but he has pitched well against the Cubs in the past year. Nova has a 2-0 record and sporting a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP of 0.842 in 3 career starts against the Cubs. Nova is a quality pitcher so there is no reason why he cannot have a solid performance tonight against Cubs. As for Quintana, the 2017 MLB season has not been what the LH pitcher has expected. In his last three starts, he has a 5.06 ERA and has a real nasty WHIP of 1.687. The Pirates have lost the first two games of this series and we look for them to salvage one game of this series. We are getting +183 with the Pirates at the time of this writing. We will be more than happy to take the HUGE plus money in a game that we see is a tossup.
Cal Sports
White Sox at Twins
Play: Twins -1.5
Very few have pitched better at home than Joe Berrios who has a 7-1 record with a 2.87 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The White Sox Derek Holland has a ballooned ERA of 7.82 on the road with a 1.76 WHIP. In Holland’s L10 starts he never pitched more than 6 innings and lasted under 5 innings 6 times. That puts a lot of pressure on a poor and depleted White Sox Bullpen. Twins have their bat going as they have totaled 28 runs and 45 hits their last 4 games.
Bob Balfe
Mets / Reds Over 9.5
Both of the starting pitchers tonight give up a lot of hits and they can also put guys on via the walk. Homer Bailey has been brutal this year for Cincinnati and in front of the home crowd every pitch he throws goes up the middle for a hit. I don’t like either bullpen to lock this game down late and I expect a lot of runs.
DOUG UPSTONE
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Under 8½
You really have to feel for anyone in the Houston area. While the Astros players are not dealing what thousands are in the region, they are a part of the community. While displaced in nothing more than an inconvenience for the players it still matter from betting perspective. That is why I like AL home teams like Houston going UNDER with the total is 8.5 to 10, with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better, after a loss by four runs or more. Since 2013, this system is 37-10.