Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, August 31st, 2016

Sleepyj

Chicago / Detroit Under 7.5

'm on the under here in this one...Going up against Sale is never an easy out...Tigers at times can go cold and the loss of Maybin Might hurt this offense here today...Sale is usually strong in most outings and his last two games he has gone very deep inning wise....He is coming off a loss and that gives him motivation...He also went against the Tigers in Detroit in the beginning of August...He only allowed 2 ER in 8 full...I think he will be rather confident here...Tigers will send out verlander and i must say it's nice to see him back to his old self again..I thought he was dead and gone the last two years...Well he is back and has some good numbers...Verlander hasn't allowed 4 runs or more since June...His last 10 starts he is giving up 2ER on avg...His ERA has dropped over the last 10 games to a season low of 3.33....CWS hasn't had a look at Verlander since June 5th...I'm not sold the Soz can get to Verlander in his current form...Hits might be tough here let alone runs..I'm on the under above the key of 7.

Marc Lawrence

Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners -114

Edges - Mariners: Felix Hernandez 5-1 with 1.78 ERA last six team starts in this series; and 6-0 last six team starts during August. Rangers: Martin Perez 1-2 with 5.29 ERA last three team starts in this series. With the Mariners 5-0 in Hernandez’s last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Seattle.

Scott Rickenbach

White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Under 7½

Yesterday's 8-4 Tigers win got over the total but a pitchers duel should be on tap today. The under was on a 7-3 run in White Sox games before yesterday's under. Chris Sale gets the start for the ChiSox today and each of his last two starts against the Tigers stayed under the total and he compiled a 3.00 ERA in those outings. The White Sox southpaw comes into this outing in fantastic current form with a total of 3 earned runs allowed over his last two outings which have spanned 17 innings and seen him strike out 22. He'll be matched today by a solid outing from Justin Verlander whom has gone 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA in his last 9 starts! The Tigers right-hander has a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts against the White Sox and he has compiled a 3.15 ERA in these outings while allowing only 15 hits in 20 innings. More of the same expected this afternoon at Comerica Park.

Larry Ness

Cincinnati vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles

The LA Angels and Cincinnati Reds opened a three-game IL series Monday night in Anaheim. The teams began the series with similar records, the Reds checking in at 55-74 and the Angels at 56-74. However, as the teams meet Wednesday in the final game of the series, the Angels will look to complete after a sweep after winning 9-2 (Monday) and 4-2 (Tuesday).

The pitching matchup will feature Brandon Finnegan (8-9, 4.27 ERA) against Ricky Nolasco (4-12, 5.24 ERA), who was acquired by the Angels from the Twins at the trading deadline. Finnegan pitched out of KC's bullpen back in 2014 but has been a starter for the Reds in 2015 and 2016. Finnegan enters this game off back-to-back excellent efforts. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning of an 11-1 rout of the Dodgers on August 20, then amassed a career-high 12 strikeouts in six innings while allowing just two runs, two walks and three hits in a no-decision this past Friday against Arizona, for his FIFTH quality start in six appearances (D'backs won 4-3 in 11 innings).

As for Nolasco, he has been a major disappointment since being acquired from Minnesota, going 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA in five starts (Angels are 0-5). His last victory came all the way back on July 9 when he was still with the Twins. Finnegan makes his first career start against the Angels, while Nolasco is 3-2 with a 5.28 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Reds (teams are 3-7).

It's hard to be too confident with Nolasco but Cincy has now lost SEVEN of nine, while LA has won SIX of its last seven. What's more, the Reds are an awful 23-43 on the road in 2016. The bet is that the Angels complete the sweep.

Jim Feist

Reds at Angels
Pick: Over

This is a good home run park and Cincy 23-year old starter Brandon Finnegan has allowed 72 free passes in 147+ innings, a poor ratio. He is worse on the road, with a losing record and a 4.46 ERA walking 51 in 72+ road innings. Cincinnati is on a 16-5 run over the total, including 18-7-1 over against a right-handed starter. The Angels have had an impressive week with Albert Pujols riding a hot streak. The Over is 32-15-4 when the Angels face the NL Central. Starter Ricky Nolasco (4-12, 5.24 ERA) looks washed up at age 33. He is 0-6 at home this season with a 5.42 ERA and the over is 14-3 in the Angels last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing record.

Chase Diamond

Miami at New York
Play: Miami

Big time NL East game between the 67-65 Marlins and the 68-64 Mets. Marlins have dropped 4 games in a row and are desperate to get a win tonight versus the Mets who are 8-2 in their last 10 games and just 2.5 behind the Cardinals for the last Wild card spot in the N.L. The Marlins have the pitching advantage in David Phelps he is 7-6 with a 2.52 ERA. He is coming off a terrible start we he only last 3.2 innings and gave up 4 runs so he comes in super motivated tonight and so does the team.

David Banks

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -175

If the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to make a move in the National League playoff race, now’s the time. The Pirates are hot as of late having won four in a row in a sweep of the Brewers. They have won eight in a row on the road, including a win over NL West leader Los Angeles and a sweep of the Giants. Pittsburgh begins a three-game series on the road in Chicago on Monday.

Ryan Vogelsong (3-3) has done an admirable job of filling out the back end of the Pirates pitching rotation. In four starts in August, the right-hander has gone 2-2 with a 2.28 ERA. He won his last start pitching 5.1 innings yielding just four hits and two runs while striking out six in a 5-3 win over Milwaukee. Vogelsong will face a much tougher task in facing the heart of a Cubs lineup that features Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist.

Bryant is tied for the NL lead with 35 home runs while he and Rizzo are tied for third in the league in RBIs (89). Bryant bats a team-high .305, Rizzo .296, and Zobrist, who has 14 home runs and 66 RBIs, is batting .281. All three are a big reason why the Cubs are the winningest team in baseball (82-47). Another is one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Jason Hammel all have at least 12 wins and John Lackey (9-7) needs just one more to reach double figures. Mike Montgomery, normally a reliever, gets a spot start against the Pirates on Wednesday. He started against the Dodgers last week and pitched well. He allowed three runs in five innings as the Cubs won 6-4.

Pat Hawkins

Washington at Tampa Bay
Play: Washington +3

This game has been moved up a day because of impending weather heading into Tampa. Both teams will play this game out and get it over with. Starters will be scarce but Washington is on a two game win streak and now they are getting points on the road, a situation that we must embrace as the local team will be on the field but not give any effort.

Wunderdog

Oakland @ Houston
Pick: Houston -220

Houston has won nine of its last 11 after Tuesday's 3-1 win over Oakland - its third straight win against the Athletics this season. The Astros have won Mike Fiers' last two starts, including 5-4 over Tampa Bay on Friday when he allowed three runs and six hits in 6 1/3 innings, which followed an outing at Baltimore when Fiers gave up just a run on five hits in seven innings. The right-hander has done his best work at home this season with a 6-3 record and 3.43 ERA. Oakland has fallen into last place in the AL West after losing 11 of its last 16 games. The Athletics are #27 in the majors with a .699 OPS and tonight's starter, Ross Detwiler, is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA and his team has lost his last three starts. Detwiler has given up 14 runs and 23 hits his last 14 innings pitched. Oakland has lost nine of its last 11 games in Houston.

SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO +145 over B.C. Lions

After getting walloped by Calgary two weeks ago, the Lions responded with 29-23 victory and solid performance in Ottawa last week. That score was actually flattering to the Redblacks, as B.C. held a 36-23 time of possession edge. Sitting at 6-3 at the halfway point, B.C. is firmly positioned for a strong second half. The Lions are 4-1 on the road and may look like a steal here spotting some small road points. Not so fast. You see, B.C. will travel again for the second consecutive week to the East Coast and they'll also travel for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. In those last five games, B.C. has been outgained twice (once by 181 yards) while outgaining the opposition by just 9 and 20 yards respectively in two other games. Truth be told, B.C. is not really outplaying anyone these days and they are not going into a good situation here, that being traveling again and going into Toronto against a club that was humiliated last game out.

The Argos have had 11 days off to think about their embarrassing loss to Edmonton. Anyone that watched/bet on that game can’t be too anxious to get behind the Argos here.The Argos looked disjointed, disengaged, and to be blunt, wretched, in losing to the Eskies, 46-23. Entering the fourth quarter, Edmonton called off the dogs with a 46-14 lead so essentially, Toronto lost in three quarters to Edmonton by 32 points. The previous week, Toronto lost at home again to Winnipeg. The Argos have now lost four of five home games. Its stock has hit bottom, which is usually the best time to jump aboard. Toronto is a well-coached outfit that figures to be biting at the bit to get back on the field. They get Ricky Ray back here and the reports out of practice this week are that the Argos looked sharp and energized.Argos coach, Scott Milanovich isn't getting enough credit for his guidance of this club. Milanovich’s five years at the helm have seen one off-field challenge after another, which included not having a true home. The Argos are getting healthier now and so we'll take a tag on a coach and club that has placed a major emphasis on this game and has been prepping for it for 11 days.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees +117 over KANSAS CITY

Ian Kennedy had a near 5 ERA in July, but that mark was the result of a 20% hr/f. His skill foundation was rock solid: 10.5 K’s/9, 2.8 BB’s/9 and 37% grounders. Kennedy's risk comes from his periodic gopheritis, which is partly a function of his lack of a groundball pitch. In fact, Kenned6y’s groundball rate is a mere 33%. What sticks out is his 1.38 ERA over his past three starts, which makes him appealing pitching for a hot team. That makes us sellers because Kennedy has been erratic for five years and good stretches are inevitably followed by some blowups. His 38% ball% puts his control at risk, too. Because of his blowup risk, he has so much more appear taking back a price than spotting one.

Luis Cessa will make just his third start of the season. Prior to making those two starts, Cessa was used in long relief while in the majors, where his very small sample size was generally inconclusive (11 strikeouts, six walks in 19 innings over eight appearances), but five home runs in that small sample is a big red flag in the AL East. He faired better as a starter in Triple-A, showing a K-rate of 8.0/9 across 77 innings (14 starts), but still a few too many home runs (8, for a 0.9 hr/f). That makes Cessa a big risk at Yankee Stadium (+29% LH batter HRs) but much less so at The K. In his two starts against the Angels and Orioles, Cessa allowed just eight hits and three runs in 12 innings and went six full in both. He had a BB/K split of 2/10 in those two starts but when he pitched at The Big A in Anaheim, a pitcher’s park to be sure, he did not allow a bomb nor did he allow a run. At Yankee Stadium against the O’s, he was tagged for two jacks. Cessa has an elite 56% groundball rate and his profile is one that has played outstanding at pitcher’s parks like the one he’ll pitch in here.

Toronto -1½ +115 over BALTIMORE

The Orioles are now three games back of the Jays for first in the AL East and they’ve also fallen a game back of the Red Sox. The O’s lead in the Wild Card race is down to one game so it is really about time that Baltimore is put out of its misery. Frankly, we’re not sure how this group of designated hitters wins ball games. They steal a base once every 20 games. They hit jacks or nothing while swinging at everything. Baltimore’s five runs last night all came via the bomb. Every batter that comes to the plate is swinging for the fences and most of them swing and miss by two feet with regularity. They’ll now face Aaron Sanchez and his filthy stuff. Sanchez has done his time in the minors, where he did not pitch a single inning. The 10 days there was designed to limit his innings while opening up a roster spot for 10 days. Sanchez has 132 K’s in 156 innings to go along with a 2.99 ERA after 24 starts. His gold-plated groundball rate of 56% is the main reason he does not have more K’s. Sanchez is just as content to induce a grounder as he is to get a strikeout and his mid-90s stuff speaks to both his high floor and ceiling. Welcome back.

Then there’s the anti-Sanchez. Yovani Gallardo has zero skills. He can’t throw strikes, as evidenced by his 52% first pitch strike rate and league high 41% ball%. In his last start, Gallardo’s first-pitch strike rate was 33%. In his last five starts, Gallardo has walked 12 and struck out 14 in 25 innings. Overall, he has a BB/K split of 50/62 in 92 innings for the worst ratio in the majors among starters with 75 or more innings. Gallardo’s 6% swing and miss rate and 89 MPH fastball is asking for trouble at Camden Yards, which enhances LH HR by 37%. Yovani Gallardo will get hit hard here. Where those balls land is the only thing in question but he’s just as likely to get knocked out before three innings as he is of getting lucky for three or four or five frames. A profile like this is prone to fall off the cliff and when you're this bad, there's no guarantee that even a parachute will provide a soft landing. If the Jays can be patient at the plate, Gallardo will not see the fifth inning here. What a mess he is.

Jeff Alexander

Mets -120

I'll gladly take my chances here on the Mets as a small home favorite against the Marlins tonight. New York comes into this one playing great baseball, as they have won 8 of their last 10 (all 8 wins by 2 runs or more). Miami on the other hand is in a major funk at the moment, as they have dropped 4 straight 6 of their last 8. Mets will give the ball to veteran Bartolo Colon, who is coming off back to back strong starts and owns the Marlins with a 28.5 ERA in 12 starts against them. Miami will counter with David Phelps, who is coming off a poor showing at San Diego and has 6.75 ERA in 5 career starts against New York.

Brandon Lee

Reds +144

Cincinnati is worth a look here as a pretty big priced dog against the Angels on Wednesday. We are getting great value in this one, due to the fact that LA has won 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall. However, the pitching matchup is heavily favored for the Reds in this one. Cincinnati sends out talented youngster Brandon Finnegan, who has really came on strong over the last month. He's tossed at least 6 shutout innings in 3 of his last 6 starts and is coming in off two outstanding starts against the Dodgers at home and at Arizona. In those two outings, he's allowed a total of 2 earned runs on a mere 4 hits with 20 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Angels will send out Ricky Nolasco, who is 4-12 with a 5.24 ERA in 26 starts. He's 0-6 in 13 home starts and the Angels have dropped each of his last 5 starts.

Jack Jones

Seattle Mariners +100

The Seattle Mariners will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today against the Texas Rangers and put to end a four-game losing streak overall. That's especially the case after blowing the lead in the 9th inning last night.

Now the Mariners will have the edge on the mound behind ace Felix Hernandez, who is 9-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in his last three. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.66 ERA in his last seven starts against the Rangers, giving up just 9 earned runs in 48 2/3 innings.

Martin Perez is 8-10 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 27 starts this season. He has lost each of his last two starts while giving up 12 earned runs over 11 2/3 innings. Perez is also 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against Seattle.

The Mariners are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Seattle is 5-0 in Hernandez's last five starts. The Mariners are 24-11 in Hernandez's last 35 starts vs. AL West opponents. The Rangers are 0-4 in Perez's last four starts vs. a team with a winning record.