Free Picks for Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Stephen Nover
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
Alex Wood and Zack Greinke rank among the top six starters in the National League in my view.
So I'm surprised to see a total above 8 listed next to their names for this matchup. Yes, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have potent offenses. But some of that offense is going to be negated by the roof being closed at Chase Field for this game. That's a huge plus for pitchers. There also will be around a nine mph wind blowing in.
Oddsmakers may be skeptical about Wood's arm since his fastball had recently lost some steam. But Wood looked strong in his last start this past Thursday holding the Braves to one run in six innings at SunTrust Park, which has played as a hitter's park.
Just to make sure that Wood's strength was still there, the Dodgers gave him a bullpen session Sunday. That session went well. I'm confident his velocity still is there. If it is, then this number is a full run too high.
Greinke has been the nuts at home going 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA at Chase this season. Greinke has struck out 95 in 79 innings in his home outings.
The Dodgers have an elite bullpen, while the Diamondbacks relief corps is underrated.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Orioles -119
Gausman has been on fire, looking like the pitcher we saw down the stretch a season ago. The righthander has allowed just two earned runs and 28 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 27 2/3 IP. Gausman has 32 strikeouts during the four game hot steak, punching out eight batters in each start. Along the way, he's lowered his exit velocity to 84.2 mph, one of the 10 best marks in MLB as reported elsewhere. Troy Scribner makes his second Major League start for the Halos, lasting just four innings in his first start against Oakland. Scribner walked four batters. He'll face a Baltimore offense averaging 5 rpg in road day games against righties, while the Angels average less than 4 rpg in day games against righties. Manny Machado is batting .429 in his last 42 at-bats and we expect the offense to provide Gausman with enough runs on Wednesday.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head on Wednesday night and it would appear that runs will be at a premium in this one.
Alex Wood: He’s 13-1 with a 2.33 ERA. Wood gave up one run off seven hit over six innings in a victory over Atlanta on Thursday. The southpaw has now gone at least five frames of one-run ball or better in 11 of his 17 starts this season. Wood has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA on the road this year.
Zack Greinke: He’s 13-4 with a 3.10 ERA. Greinke comes in off an outing to forget against the the Cubs on Thursday, giving up six runs while striking out eight over six innings, lucky to earn a no-decision for his sub-par effort. Outings like that have ben few and far between for Greinke though this season and to go along with his respectable 3.10 ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 (he’s 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA at home as well.)
The bottom line: Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers points to a lower-scoring UNDER.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Play:Tampa Bay +109
The Rays fit a powerful 83% home dog system that pertains to last nights loss as a home dog where they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. Boston fits a play against system that pertains to their road favored win at -200 or more and their 10+ hits while scoring 2 or less runs in the win. These road favorites have lost 6 of 7. Boston has lost the last 3 starts against Tampa with Porcello pitching and he is on a 1-5 road run. Odorizzi is back for the Rays and he has won his last 3 home August starts. Look for Tampa to bounce back tonight.
Big Al
Kansas City vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -125
The latest installment of the Midwest I-70 series probably won't garner much interest outside of Missouri as both the Royals and Cards have tread water for most of the season (although the Royals have come alive somewhat as of late). RHP Mike Leake will get the start at home for the Cardinals and it will be his 23rd of the season. Since boasting the league's best ERA (1.91) on May 24, Leake has won just two of his next 13 starts and he has an ERA during that stretch of 4.54. He has, however, allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. His only previous effort against the Royals was a good one, as Leake allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in seven innings although he took a tough-luck loss. He will try for a little revenge tonight at home where he boasts a 3.20 ERA in 12 starts, even though he has a losing record here at 3-6 on the season. The Royals will go with RHP Trevor Cahill, who they acquired about a week before the trade deadline in a deal that many people didn't notice. Cahill hasn't been able to get on track since arriving in Kansas City as he is 0-0 with an ugly 7.27 ERA in two starts covering 8 2/3 innings.
Zack Cimini
Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Seattle +100
Wednesday the Mariners take on the Oakland As for their fourth series of the season. Thus far Oakland has had the upper hand in the series with a six wins to five losses. Although Jharel Cotton has not lived up to pre-season expectations the As as a whole have won seven of ten. That’s been accomplished via hot bats. Expect Yovani Gallardo to tame the As and lead the Mariners to victory.
Jim Feist
Houston at Chicago
Pick: Under
Houston has great pitching depth and heads to Chicago, a good park for pitchers. Houston is 17-8-1 under the total when Colin McHugh (3.24 ERA) faces a team with a losing record. Rebuilding Chicago has a bad offense, 9-4 under the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Starter Miguel Gonzalez has allowed 1 run in each of his last two home starts. And the Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
Edges - Cardinals: Leake 3.20 ERA with 1.21 WHIP at home this season… Royals: Cahill 3-5 with 6.30 ERA and 1.75 WHIP away team starts this season as opposed to 5-0 with 1.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP home this season; and visiting team is 3-10 in Cahill’s team starts this season. With Leake is good KW form with 13 Ks and 2 BBs his last three starts, and Cahill in wobbly KW form with 8 BBs and 6 Ks in his last three efforts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND -105 over Seattle
Like most baseball bettors, we can’t stomach the Athletics either but sometimes you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best and this is one of those times. Jharel Cotton is a change-up specialist that was dynamite last year after the trade from L.A., both at Triple-A (2.82 ERA at Nashville) and in his late-season audition. We have seen that dynamite plenty of times this season too. Cotton is still working things out. He’s spent time between the majors, the DL and the minors and the results have been mixed in his 85 innings at this level over 16 starts. Cotton's gopheritis has put the kibosh on what many thought would be a breakout campaign, as a 46% fly-ball rate has translated into 15 HR allowed in 16 starts. However, Cotton has not allowed a jack in three of his last four appearances and his groundball/fly-ball split over that span has improved greatly too. In fact, Cotton has a 50% groundball rate, a 15% line-drive rate and 35% fly-ball rate combined over his past two starts. Baby steps my friends, baby steps but he’s getting closer and is 100% more appealing than his counterpart here.
Yovani Gallardo is starting today for one reason and one reason only and that’s because everything is about money. You see, the Mariners will pay this stiff over 9M to pitch this season, which up to this point is more than a half a million a start. Gallardo has made just 17 starts and for their 9M, the M’s have received in return four victories, a 1.46 WHIP and an xERA of 5.88. Incidentally, Gallardo has made more “favorable park” starts than any pitcher in baseball. Where it gets sweet (for us) is on paper, where Gallardo has a 3.80 ERA over his last three starts and that’s a stat the market puts emphasis on so allow us to elaborate on that. Over those three starts covering 17 frames, Gallardo has walked 10 and struck out eight. His 6.81 xERA over that span is a full three runs higher than his actual ERA. His 4% swing and miss rate since returning to the rotation is putrid and it’s also the lowest of his career. Gallardo has regressed to a replacement-level starter—at best. That continues a multi-year trend for Gallardo, who has only earned positive returns in one season since 2012 and actually has been below replacement level in 2016 and 2017. This is one of the worst starters in the game with practically no skills remaining that we get to fade in an evenly priced game. Yeah, Oakland is unappealing for the most part but they win at home often.
Kansas City +140 over ST. LOUIS
Mike Leake comes in with a 7-10 record to go along with a shiny 3.34 ERA but we’re not buying it. For one, Leake doesn't miss a lot of bats, so he'll never be a major strikeout source. As a result, he’s at the mercy of BABIP. Leake’s skills have remained consistent throughout his career. He’s going to put the ball in play and he’s going to throw strikes. What happens when the balls are in play is where the luck factor takes over. With the EXACT same skills as he has this year, Leake posted a 4.69 ERA last year in 30 starts for the Cards. His strand rate last year was 66% and this year it is 78% and there lies the difference between a good and bad year on paper. Leake’s xERA last year (4.41) is the within a couple of percentage points of this year’s 4.43 mark. So, Leake will go out there again today and there will be base-runners. If his strand rate is high, he’ll have a decent pitching line and if it’s not or if it’s normal, he’ll likely give up between four and six runs. Mike Leake has appeal when taking back a tag but very little appeal when spotting one.
San Diego signing Trevor Cahill for $1.75 million this offseason was meant to provide a little stability to a questionable rotation but few thought that the former top prospect would suddenly ramp up his strikeout rate in such startling fashion while transitioning back to the rotation. Cahill’s career as a starter was punctuated by groundball after groundball, mediated by a perfectly normal strikeout rate for such a sinker-heavy starter. But this guy, injuries and all, turned out to be the best pitcher in an otherwise-terrible Padres rotation thanks to his regular use of five different pitches. The 29-year-old’s unexpected renaissance campaign has gone relatively unnoticed in San Diego. Over 11 starts, Cahill averaged nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings while posting an xERA that ranked 11th out of 171 pitchers with 60-plus innings. Fortunately for us, he’s gotten a bit unlucky and he now pitches for Kansas City as an underpriced starter. Cahill owns a .329 BABIP, which is nearly 40 points higher than his career mark. It may seem counterintuitive to upgrade a starting pitcher leaving San Diego, but Cahill should benefit from the Royals' stellar defense. The underlying metrics suggest that he’s vastly outperformed his surface statistics and is due for a rebound. Trevor Cahill has an elite profile of 55% grounders, 17% line-drives and just 27% fly-balls. He has struck out 77 batters in 70 innings this season. Not only should Trevor Cahill’s fortunes improve in Kansas City but he’s back from the dead and now there’s a legitimate buying opportunity here too. Pencil us in for that.
San Diego +125 over CINCINNATI
The Padres traded for Travis Wood but that was a move for the future and not for the present. The benefit for San Diego was that they unloaded Trevor Cahill and his contract and they were able to snag Matt Strahm from the Royals, which was the key cog in the trade. The Padres immediately assigned swingman Wood to the minors but swiftly recalled him, where he’s made two starts, both against the Pirates. Wood struck out 12 Pirates (a team that does not strike out often) over 11 frames. He now has a BB/K split of 4/17 over his last 21 innings. Wood brings risk for sure but this bet is more about fading the Reds against a left-handed starter because in 27 games against left-handed starters, Cinci has six wins, which is by far the worst winning percentage in the majors against southpaws. That alone makes this bet a worthy one but there’s more. Padres manager, Andy Green has his team playing winning baseball. The Papas have won 10 of their past 17 games. Hiring a manager for his managerial profile, instead of for his name value as a former player, is an increasingly rare bit of common-sense genius. In San Diego’s case, it's helped them establish an identity and put together some good runs. The Padres are live again and it’s worth repeating that Cinci is 6-21 against southpaws.
Asher Wojciechowski’s 28%/55% groundball/fly-ball split is a massive risk at this park. Aside from that, Wojciechowski only has 39 innings to his credit this year and most of those have been of the unimpressive quality. Wojciechowski has made just five starts this year and he’s been a big underdog in the +135 to +201 range in four of those five starts. He now goes from that to a significant favorite here all because it’s against the perceived weak Padres. Wojciechowski has upside but what he doesn’t have is the pedigree or results to be prioced in this range at this point in his career while pitching for the win-starved Reds. It’s all about playing value and we trust we found some here.
SPORTS WAGERS
PGA Championship
A major tournament brings with it a major field, and a whopping 113 of the top 115 players in the world of golf, plus some former PGA Championship winners and old favorites, will be in attendance at Quail Hollow. The only absentees are Martin Kaymer, who has undergone shoulder surgery, and Scott Piercy, who is absent for personal reasons. Other than that, all the big guns have come out to play in North Carolina.
Three new holes have been created by Tom Fazio to turn this PGA TOUR level course, which annually hosts the Wells Fargo Championship, into a major venue. The aim of that work has been to toughen up the stretch, with the new first hole now measuring a whopping 524-yards, but typically the greatest protection offered to Quail Hollow is the wind. Compare and contrast the winning scores of -9 (James Hahn, 2016) and -8 (Derek Ernst, 2013) here in blowy conditions compared to -21 (Rory McIlroy, 2015) and -15 (McIlroy 2010, Lucas Glover 2011) in a more benign set-up. What we do know is that the course has been lengthened to around 7,600 yards from 7,442, and that the traditional Par 72 mark has been squeezed into Par 71. The organizers are desperate for this not to turn into a low-scoring shootout, it seems.
Other factors to note are that the course was changed from Bentgrass to Bermuda after the 2013 edition of the Wells Fargo, and also that this track plays at significant elevation changes – the average is some 600 ft above sea level. The move to Bermuda grass could be significant. When dry, these greens will be much tougher to hold than wet Bermuda or Bentgrass of any sort, and playing from the rough can be a confidence-shaker as well. Will the players get fast shooters or soft flops out of the rough stuff?
What we’re looking for this week:
Length off the tee could be a crucial weapon this week in order to avoid those twitchy long iron approaches. A track measuring 7,600 yards is long by anyone’s standards, but when you factor in that there are only three Par 5s, getting a headstart off the tee could be vital. Even accounting for changes to Quail Hollow, we can still use data from Wells Fargo Championship editions of yesteryear for guidance. The 2016 event is particularly illuminating: of the top 10 players on the leaderboard, nine finished inside the top-25 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That’s another obvious point of reference when searching for undervalued players this week.
Putting on Bermudagrass is crucial of course – and remember, we’ve been on a Bentgrass wing for a few weeks now, but really the recipe for success this week, assuming the rain comes, is flushing irons in the 160-190 yard range and getting them close on softer greens than expected. There are elevation changes to consider, but if conditions are wet then these become less of an issue. No question that Ricky Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and the usual suspects have a great chance to win this week but we’re looking for bombs that have a legit shot of winning at big odds and hopefully one or more of these guys will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday with a chance to win it.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.
Daniel Berger 50-1
It has been a campaign in which Daniel Berger has come of age. He has grabbed his second PGA TOUR title and recorded six other top-five finishes. He was second only to Jordan Spieth’s ridiculous chip-in at the Travelers, but showed great mental strength to finish fifth at the John Deere Classic a week later. His T17 last time out at the WGC-Bridgestone doesn’t look all that impressive, but gaining +1.771 on the field from tee-to-green showcases how well he is striking the ball at present. Berger was also excellent from tee-to-green at Quail Hollow in the 2016 Wells Fargo, which informed his T17 finish there, and you sense that a big performance from the 24-year-old on the major stage is due. Berger ranks 6th ON TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green, 14th ON TOUR in Par 4 Scoring Average and 24th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. He’s a threat every single time he enters an event and this one is no different (Risking 0.2 units to win 10).
Brendan Steele 125-1
It’s been a strange old season for Brendan Steele. After winning the very first event of the campaign at the Safeway Open, he would have been confident of producing something very special in 2017, but it hasn’t quite panned out that way. There were quite a few top-20s in the first few months, but a natural fallow period followed and we wondered whether Steele had regressed to a more natural level. Perhaps he has, but T13 at the US Open was a timely reminder of his talents and T24 at the WGC-Bridgestone was capped by ranking 10th for Driving Distance, 18th for Driving Accuracy and T1 for Greens in Regulation. The only thing holding him back is the putter, but the switch from Bentgrass to Bermuda may just facilitate an improvement there. Steele ranks 4th ON TOUR in Approaches from 175-200 yards, 16th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and 33rd on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee. Steele’s best two performances at Quail Hollow have come in his last pair of visits (T9 in 2015 and T14 in 2016) and this just might be the year he takes it over the top (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Patrick Cantlay 125-1
So talented. The revival of the one-time phenom continues and is on an accelerated pace now. Cantlay can fire 66’s and 67’s with the best of them. The Cantlay comeback is so riveting for one, because he was essentially a can’t-miss star in golf several years ago, as he blitzed the 2010-11 college season by winning the Haskins Award Presented by Stifel as a freshman at UCLA. He only followed that by making the cut in all five pro events he entered that summer and fall. Those starts included an eye-opening T-21 at the U.S. Open and an astounding second-round 60 – the lowest single-round score ever produced on the PGA Tour by an amateur – on his way to the 36-hole lead at the Travelers Championship.
Cantlay’s success continued into 2012, as he had been the No. 1 amateur in the world for a record 55 weeks when he turned pro that June. He finished top 10 at the 2013 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and earned a Web.com Tour victory early in the year as well. But then the issues began. At the Crowne Plaza Invitational that May, he was forced to withdraw in the middle of the second round after suffering from pain in his back. It turned out to be a stress fracture in his L5 vertebrae. Cantlay said that he did worry during this time he might never be able to return to the PGA Tour stage. “It was a concern for sure. You know, being out for so long and not feeling the best for a long time,” Cantlay said. And to make things even tougher, Cantlay saw his best friend, Chris Roth, die right in front of him last February. Roth, walking about 10 feet ahead of Cantlay as they were out one night, was struck by a hit-and-run driver as he crossed a street. Roth was pronounced dead later that night.
Yet, Cantlay has persevered through it all. He made his triumphant return to the PGA Tour at Pebble Beach, where he put together four rounds of 72 or better on his way to a T-48 finish. He’s played in six more events since then and has made the cut every time including a T3 at the RBC Heritage, a T14 at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and a T22 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Whatever happens this weekend, the Cantlay comeback is in full swing and he’s proving his talent never disappeared. Could he really win this quickly? It’s possible, and that in itself proves Cantlay has already come so far so quickly. Expect him to contend almost every time he tees it up, as long as he stays healthy and at 125-1, he’s worth a bet (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Francesco Molinari 110-1
For a prolific winner on the European Tour, it’s somewhat surprising that Molinari has never quite made the grade Stateside. Molinari, the 34-year-old Italian, has played on two Ryder Cup teams and has six wins worldwide. So a look at the driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats (which always matter) take on added importance this week, and Molinari does well in each. He’s a quality ball striker who ranks 11th on Tour for Total Driving, and his closing round of 65 at the WGC-Bridgestone will have given him plenty of confidence ahead of the trip to North Carolina. A T17 return from his last trip to Quail Hollow suggests a decent run this week is in the offing if he plays anything close to the way he played on Sunday in Ohio, he’ll be right there this week (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).
Head-to-head Matchups
P. Casey -106 over S. Garcia
Sergio got his major, a Green Jacket no less, earlier in the year and the fire in his eyes just doesn’t seem to be there right now. It was a huge relief to get that elusive major and while he still wants to win, the urgency at his age is no longer present. Sergio was also married at the end of July so it’s been about as good a year as one could have and these majors just don’t seem as important to him after chasing that first one for so long.
Meanwhile, Paul Casey just always seems to play well in majors; in his last seven starts, he has recorded four top-25 finishes with three of those being top-10s. He doesn’t win often as we know, but then neither does Matt Kuchar and it took a miraculous performance from Spieth to deny Kooch his first major. Casey CAN win the PGA Championship if he plays his very best but we’re only asking him to beat Sergio here. Casey played well at the WGC-Bridgestone last week, finishing T5 and ranking fifth for Greens in Regulation and seventh for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.Most pleasing is his brilliance from mid-range: Casey ranks 13th and fifth for Approaches from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards respectively (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
H. Matsuyama +119 over R. McIlroy
McIlroy is the favorite to win this event and we can understand the hype surrounding him after an excellent four days at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. McIlroy was smiling, joking, and appeared to be enjoying his golf again and the result was a fine performance at Firestone. A T5 finish was punctuated by +2.029 strokes gained from tee to green. Importantly, he ranked first for Driving Distance and an impressive 14th for Driving Accuracy into the bargain. By ranking ninth for GIR, we can see that he backed his excellent drives with effective iron play. A two-time PGA Championship winner, just take a look at McIlroy’s record at Quail Hollow: 4-1-8-10-2-MC-1. Indeed he looks good but this week is a little different than last week. You see, once again, Rory’s expectations are through the roof and with that comes some added pressure. We’ve seen him lose his way far too many times this year to trust he’s all the way back and even if he plays outstanding again, he still has to beat the hottest player in the world. In other words, Matsuyama at this price is a must play.
How can we not after his brilliance at Firestone? He gained a huge +3.737 strokes on the field from tee-to-green, and that is symbolic of how much better he was than anybody else in Ohio! Matsuyama has shown a growing affection for Quail Hollow with a chronological run reading 11-20-38 – last year ranking fifth for SG: Tee-to-Green there. And let’s not forget his return from the last four majors: 14-2-11-4, with six career top-10s in majors to his credit as well. Matsuyama is clearly someone who thrives on the big stage, and it’s unlikely he will have entered a big tournament striking the ball as well as this before. He ranks 2nd in Par 4 Scoring Average, 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Matsuyama is in great form and we absolutely do not see this being a letdown spot after a win last week. He obliterated the field on Sunday in much the same way we saw DJ slay the field back when he won three events in succession earlier this year just before the Masters (risking 2 units to win 2.38 units).
T. Fleetwood +102 over P. Mickelson
The four majors attract the most action every year in terms of betting and for whatever reason, Phil Mickelson gets heavily backed in these events along with several other high profile pros. You see, the network(s) that carry these events will show Mickelson’s every shot and even if he’s not doing great, they’ll show every great shot over all 72 holes providing he makes the cut. For the networks to show Tommy Fleetwood, he’s going to have to be at or near the top otherwise you won’t see him or hear his name once. You’ll see over 200 shots by Mickelson though over the course of any four days of any event, Same with the rest of the “all-American boys” because they sell. The networks would rather show Mickelson walking to his next shot as opposed to Fleetwood taking a shot off the tee and that’s something we can try and take advantage of. The networks are pounding these high profile pros into the minds of the casual bettor but we’re here to tell you that win or lose, Mickelson favored over Fleetwood is incorrect because Fleetwood is the superior pro right now and may never be inferior to Mickelson again.
Fleetwood comes in a bit under the radar this week. Everyone loved him at Royal Birkdale for the Open, but it’s easy to foresee a lot of people being off him after a “disappointing” T27 there. Still, he has a win, six top-30’s and a top-5 at a major on U.S. soil (US Open) in his last six starts and it’s tough to beat that kind of form. We’re only asking him to beat a 47-year-old that is not in great form too (risking 2 units to win 2.04 units).
Will Rogers
Cubs at Giants
Pick: Over 7.5
The set-up: The Cubs and Giants will play the rubber match of this three-games series Thursday afternoon at AT&T Park. Chicago won 5-3 on Monday but Buster Posey ended a 23-game HR drought with a three-run blast to fuel Tuesday's 6-3 San Francisco victory. The loss was just Chicago's eighth in 24 games and the team was able to maintain its 1 1/2-game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Central, as the Brewers lost 11-4 in Minnesota. The Giants are happy with any kind of win these days, as they sit a hard-to-believe 35 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West with their 45-70 record plus own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$2927.
The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (4-4 & 3.81 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Madison Bumgarner (1-5 & 2.88 ERA) for San Francisco. Hendricks led all MLB starters with a 2.13 ERA in 2016 but this season has not gone as smoothly. He was sidelined for seven weeks due to tendinitis in his pitching hand and while he owns a 2.76 ERA in three starts since returning to the rotation, he's 0-1 and the Cubs 1-2. Hendricks is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against the Giants, losing both of his previous two outings at AT&T Park. Bumgarner also knows about spending time on the DL, as he went almost three full months between starts, from April19 to July 15. Bumgarner is 8-2 with a 2.44 ERA in 13 career outings against the Cubs (Giants are 10-3), including 5-0 with a 1.74 ERA over the last six in the regular season.
The pick: However, the Giants just can't seem to win with Bumgarner on the mound, as they are 1-8, minus-$1111 here in 2017. The Cubs loss last night was just the team's second in its last 14 contests away from home. The play here is the Over.
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Orioles -130
Baltimore suffered a rare loss here of late in yesterday's hard fought 2-3 defeat to the Angeles. The Orioles are still a red-hot 8-3 over their last 11 games. My money is on Baltimore to bounce back and take this series against LA in Wednesday's rubber match. Not only are the Orioles playing well as a team, but they send out one of the hottest starters in the league in Kevin Gausman. He's got a 0.42 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over his last 3 starts and is 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his last 8 starts. On the flip side of this the Angels are sending out Troy Scribner for just his second big league start. The first wasn't great, as he allowed 5 runs (2 earned) in 4 innings. The big concern for me is the 4 walks and just 3 strikeouts.
Doug Upstone
Marlins vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -166
Washington is trying to string together its starting pitching and has scored a ton to offset problems. There potent offense has been off some, yet is in a great spot to comeback. Play On NL home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 like the Nationals, with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better, with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. (40-9, 81.6%, L20Y)
John Martin
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego +133
The Cincinnati Reds shouldn't be this big of favorites against anyone. Asher Wojciechowski has shown nothing that would indicate he's worthy of this kind of price. He is 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in five starts for the Reds this season. Travis Wood hasn't been any better, but he does have a nice history against the Reds. Wood has posted a 2.69 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 previous starts against Cincinnati. The Reds are 6-21 against left-handed starts this season, hitting just .243 and scoring 3.7 runs per game off them.