ASA
Padres vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11½
Padres southpaw Clayton Richard has a 7.17 ERA over his last 4 starts and he has been rocked in 3 of the 4 outings. The ERA could easily be even higher too as his WHIP is over the 2.00 mark in these last 4 trips to the mound. When you're allowing 2 baserunners per inning on average and then pitching in an afternoon game at hitter-friendly Coors Field the results are unlikely to be good. The Rockies have exploded for 31 runs in their last 3 games and the over is on a perfect 5-0 run in Colorado's game. The Rockies will have Jon Gray toeing the rubber this afternoon and he has a 7.90 ERA and a 2.12 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The right-hander is facing a Padres lineup that has been swinging the bats well with averaging about 6 runs and 10 hits per game in their last 5 games. We expect the hot hitting to continue on a hot afternoon in Denver as the over moves to 27-15 this season in San Diego's divisional games!
Sleepyj
Phillies at Marlins
Play:Marlins
Miami took a loss yesterday, so I expect them to bounce back here at home...Miami is a tough lineup to deal with and the Phillies go with Pivetta...He got lumped his last game, but at times can surprise..My feeling is he gets bopped again here for a second consecutive game...Miami hasn't seen him, but I still favor the Marlins hitters against Pivetta without a look...Straily goes for the Marlins and he has been rather good this season...Straily has seen the Phillies, but that was way back in late May...Straily pitched rather well only giving up 1 ER...I think he comes in confident and seeking revenge coming off a loss...A bit pricey, but I'll throw a unit on the marlins to get back at the Phils today.
Carmine Bianco
Linfield at Celtic
Play: Celtic -3
The final scoreline in Leg 1 truly flattered Linfield as Celtic won 2-0 away but a look at not only the statistical numbers but the pitch Celtic were forced to play on show the final number could have been worse and should be on Wednesday as Celtic return home for leg 2. Despite a badly maintained pitch Celtic were able to generate 27 attempts on goal while registering 13 shots on goal and 60% possession. Expect that possession number to be higher on Wednesday and for this Celtic side to put up a big number.
Jimmy Boyd
Mariners vs. Astros
Play: Under 8½
I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in the series finale Wednesday afternoon between division rivals Seattle and Houston. The Mariners will send out James Paxton, who is 8-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 15 starts. Paxton got off to a great start, but struggled after a short trip to the DL. He's back to his early season form and has a 2.33 ERA and 07.24 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Paxton has already faced the Astros twice this season and has yet to allow a run, giving up just 6 hits over 13 innings.
The opposing starter in each of those starts was Charlie Morton, who again will counter Paxton. Morton is coming off poor start at home against the Twins, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings. On the bright side, he allowed just 3 hits and struck out 10. He's also still 5-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.277 WHIP in 8 home starts. Note that both meetings between these two starts this seasons ended with 8 or fewer runs being scored.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Hump Day is on the Miami Marlins, on the Run Line, over the Philadelphia Phillies.
Miami is going to take full advantage of Pivetta, who struck out the first four Brewers he faced last Friday, but then allowed eight straight batters to score. He responded by retiring 11 of the final 13 batters he faced, but this won't be an easy one, as Miami's batters can be dangerous at home.
Straily is the better side here, as he showed durability by pitching through a bruise on his right hand he sustained while batting during his last outing against the Dodgers. In two career starts against the Phillies, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA. He'll dominate here.
Take the Fish on the Run Line.
2* MARLINS -1.5
Brad Wilton
After a lengthy rain-delay to start last night's meeting, look for the Cubs and Braves to be a little sluggish today when they hit the diamond at muggy Sun Trust Park, and look for the Under to be the way to go to close out this series.
The first pair between the teams have landed Under the total, and the Cubs have now played Under the total in 3 straight. The Braves have also played Under the total in each of their last 3 games, and 4 of their last 5 overall.
Atlanta will go with R.A. Dickey who has found his form with 4 straight starts of allowing just one run, and 6 of his last 7 having seen one run or less cross the plate!
The Under is now 4-2-1 the last 7 times Dickey has climbed the hill.
Not real sure how many more starts Mike Montgomery is going to make, as he is just 1-6 this season, and of late sports an over 10 ERA for his last 3 efforts.
Montgomery will be the real key to the total in this game, and I say today he steps up uses the late night game/early day game factor to his favor.
Play the Under in the Cubs-Braves.
2* CUBS-ATLANTA UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free play for Wednesday is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, over the Milwaukee Brewers, and I won't list pitchers here.
Though the Bucs are in fourth place, and the Brew Crew leads the National League Central division, the momentum favors Pittsburgh.
Milwaukee has lost three in a row, and could be headed toward an epic collapse at this point. Though the Brewers have had a decent month, they're looking a bit weak in this series, going 3-for-16 with runners in scoring position in the first two games versus Pittsburgh.
With six wins in their past seven, Pittsburgh is now just five games back of the Brewers in the division. The Pirates are now 25-23 at home, and going back further, they've actually won eight of 10.
Take Pittsburgh as the free winner tonight.
1* PITTSBURGH
Jeff Benton
Wednesday freebie is the Over in the Diamondbacks-Reds contest.
Last night Arizona broke out the lumber, as the D-Backs were able to bring 11 runs home for their second Over in their last three games.
Expect the lumber to stay out tonight when they face Tim Adleman who they did defeat back on July 7th, as they got to him for 6 hits and 4 runs - 3 of them earned - in his 5 innings of work.
Adleman owns a season ERA of 4.99, and over his last 3 starts, his ERA is 6.91.
He will be the key to this Over play, as I do not feel the Reds will be getting too many runs off of Zack Greinke and his 2.86 season ERA.
The Reds have allowed 41 runs to cross in their last 4 games, and 3 of the 4 have landed Over the total.
This one does too!
3* ARIZONA-CINCINNATI OVER
Eric Schroeder
My comp play is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Texas Rangers, who have lost three in a row.
This one is about Texas, to be quite honest, as it continues to struggle to win games. The Rangers have the worst road batting average, with a .217 clip while ordering room service, and that won't cut it tonight in Baltimore.
Look for the O's to pull away for this one early, and hold their lead for an easy victory.
5* ORIOLES
Alex Smart
Tigers vs. Royals
Play:Tigers +106
The Royals enter this tilt against the Tigers in a funk as is evident by having lost four of five at home after the All-Star break. With starter Jason Hammel, at 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA through three July starts the Royals once again look they will continue in downward spiral. Hammel is 2-2 along with a ugly 8.02 ERA in 10 career outings, including seven starts, against the Tigers. HAMMEL is 0-8 L/8 against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%). Meanwhile, Detroit seems to have found their rhythm after the all star break, winning 4 straight times, behind a offense that has scored 37 runs during that span with 11,6,10,9 run outputs. Yesterday they scored a 9-2 win vs the Royals. DETROIT is 18-4 L/22 against the money line after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games . HAMMEL is 1-8 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -4 over Montreal
The Redblacks are not as bad as their record would indicate. Unfortunately, they've yet to post a win this season and last week's desperate backdoor cover might not inspire a lot of confidence in a fickle market. In their three losses this season, the Redblacks are just a minus seven in point differential. That's a fine line from 0-3-1 to 3-0-1. A few bounces go Ottawa's way and its season could look much different. Take last week for instance, a pass through the hands of Brad Sinopoli was ruled a lateral and returned for a touchdown by the Eskies. It was a classic case of “in-game variance” and a play that totally turned the tides against the Redblacks. One area the Redblacks cannot be disappointed is in the play of quarterback Trevor Harris. Harris is completing a solid 71.5% of his passes while throwing for 1379 yards and eight touchdowns to just two interceptions. In the red zone, the Redblacks are taking care of business with eight touchdowns in 12 attempts while on the other side of the ball, their opponents are just 6-for-16 in the RZ. You might think a slow start has the Redblacks down but Harris said this week “Hungry is a great word to describe us”. Desperation hasn't sunk in for the Redblacks yet, and why should it? This team won just eight games a year ago on its way to a championship. The reality is, the CFL season doesn't start until Canadian Thanksgiving and as long as Harris is healthy, the Redblacks are a contender. Another case study would be to look at the 2011 B.C. Lions. who started the season 0-5 before winning the Grey Cup that November.
The fact that the Alouettes are 2-2 is a small miracle. Victory number one came after the Roughriders missed a chip shot field goal in Week 1, while last week's W came against the beat up Stampeders. Sure, that win over Calgary might look impressive on paper and we backed the Als in that game, but bad weather and a battered Stamps defense played a huge roll in that win. Montreal made the biggest splash this offseason when they traded for Darian Durant from the Roughriders but maybe there was a reason Saskatchewan no longer wanted to pay top dollar for their franchise quarterback. Durant has been average at best completing 66.4% of his passes for just 940 yards and 1:1 touchdown to inception radio at four a piece. Durant is aging both physically and mentally. He’s never been a good decision maker but and now that he’s not the athlete he once was, those poor decisions are something he’s not going to be able to overcome. Durant is always at the mercy of throwing a pick because he makes so many bad decisions every game. Montreal is now in a letdown spot after that big win over the Als last week and they’ll now play the hungriest team in Canada. Our buy-low, sell-high philosophy comes into play for this game but perhaps more importantly is that the Redblacks are too good to be winless and certainly too good to lose to this Als’ team coming off a signature win.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego -1½ +240 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-24 + 23.65 units
BALTIMORE -1½ +141 over Texas
Over their past six games, the Rangers are hitting .187. Playing in Baltimore and Kansas City and one at home versus the Angels, Texas has scored 11 runs over its past six games. They have scored twice in two games in Baltimore. Now that we’re approaching the dog-days of summer, these old and beat up Rangers are about to fall off the map. Too many of their key players lack the most important offensive skill. They're dynamic, but not young, and they don't have enough old-player skills to overcome that lack of youth. They seem to always be battling injuries to key players, but that's because those key players tend to be quite old and have been signed at a discount because of their fragility, or both. The Rangers are loaded with a bunch of .240 hitters. They’re best hitter is batting .287. This is a weak lineup that will face one of the O’s better starters in Kevin Gausman, not to mention a solid bullpen behind him. The Rangers are in awful form and will send an awful pitcher to the hill to start this one.
Martin Perez crashed back to earth after a hit%/strand%-fueled mirage in April. He comes in with a 4.55/4.92 ERA/xERA split after 17 starts but nothing is trending positive. Perez’s xERA over his last five starts is 5.22. Over his last 19 innings, he’s walked seven and struck out seven. Other signs are ominous, as he doesn't miss enough bats to reverse his K-rate slide, and his poor xERA has been holding steady for years. Martin Perez is pitching for a team in serious decline and he has lots and lots of bad innings left in that arm of his. That’s not a good combination.
PITTSBURGH -1½ +140 over Milwaukee
With victories in the first two games of this series, the Pirates are now just five games back of the Crew and now the pressure starts to mount for Milwaukee. It was all fun and games in the first half for the Crew and they’re also hearing footsteps from the Cubbies. Milwaukee blew leads in the first two games of this series. That’s a bad sign. They had plenty of chances to put the Bucs away but failed to do so. The main reason is because they live and die by the long ball. Milwaukee hit a three run shot in the second inning last night and did not score again. They scored twice in the first game of this series and have now scored three runs or less in four straight. Now the Brewers will face a pitcher they would rather not see when they’re struggling.
Current Milwaukee batters have six hits in 54 combined AB’s versus Gerrit Cole for a BA of .111. The Pirates have won Cole’s last two starts and they’ve won five of his last six starts also. Among those starts was a seven-inning, three-hit gem in Milwaukee exactly one month ago on June 19. Over his last five starts covering 31 innings, Cole has a BB/K split of 7/29 to go along with a nifty 3.65 xERA. After some early struggles, Cole appears to be back on track and he and the Pirates could not have hand-picked a better time to face this visitor.
Zach Davies has started 19 games for the Crew and comes in with an 11-4 record and that’s because he’s been getting tremendous run support. That run support luck is likely to run out here. In his last start against the Phillies, Davies was smacked around for six runs in five innings but Milwaukee went deep twice in the second inning and hung up an eight-spot in that inning before hanging on for a 9-7 victory. Even with a six-run lead after two frames, Davies was getting banged around. Davies has very few redeeming skills. His BB/K split of 35/69 in 102 innings is weak. His swing and miss rate of 8% is below league average. His 1.50 WHIP reveals that he allows far too many baserunners to continue winning games at the pace that he’s winning them this season. His 16% hr/f is an alarming number that says Davies has been walking a tightrope all year long. Davies’ xERA over his last five starts is 5.62 and it’s 5.03 on the year, yet he has 11 wins in 15 decisions. Like the Brewers luck is starting to run out, Davies is next in line and so we must continue to fade him.
Larry Wallace
Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -1½
Cole is 3-3 with a 3.32 ERA in his career against the Brewers. Davies against the Pirates in his career is 1-3 with a 10.29 ERA. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 games overall.
Teddy Covers
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Play: Tampa Bay +113
The Rays have come out of the break playing winning baseball, winning four out of five on their current road trip. They’ve been clutch throughout this run; getting the key outs from their bullpen in high leverage situations and taking advantage of late inning opportunities themselves, like their ‘two out, nobody on’ rally in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday. The Rays trail Boston by only two games in the AL East standings right now, a surging team worth riding, especially in this underdog price range.
Meanwhile, the Oakland A’s, have been a steady fixture in last place in the AL West for the last two months. They notched a series sweep over the Indians last weekend., but were unable to carry any of that momentum forward, losing the first two games of this set. It’s surely worth noting that the last time Oakland had a home sweep, they followed it up by getting swept in a four game set at home in their next series. This is not the type of squad primed to deliver extended runs of winning baseball over the back half of the campaign."
Oakland GM Billy Beane has announced that the team is in full rebuild mode. He just traded two key relievers for future prospects, leaving manager Bob Melvin to say this about his bullpen moving forward: "We'll figure it out on the fly a little bit.” Figuring it out on the fly cost them the game last night, and the negative momentum in Oakland is palpable right now, even with ace Sonny Gray on the hill. Gray, too, is on the trading block — be sure to play this game as ‘action’ not as ‘listed pitchers’ if you get involved with a wager.
Wunderdog
Seattle vs. Houston
Pick: Houston -106
Seattle has a losing road mark and plays its sixth straight road contest. They come off a 6-2 defeat to this Houston squad and the Mariners are 8-20 when their opponent allows two or fewer runs in their previous game. Seattle is #18 in pitching ERA and goes with James Paxton, who has a 2.67 ERA at home but 4.05 on the road. Houston is tops in baseball in runs scored, seventh in pitching ERA. The Astros are 59-26 against teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game, plus 35-13 when the moneyline is -100 to -150. Houston starter Charlie Morton has won back-to-back decisions and six of his last seven. The balanced and powerhouse Astros are 72-34 vs. losing teams, plus on a 31-13 run against division opponents. The Mariners are also just 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Houston.