Rob Vinciletti
Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -152
The Pirates are 6-1 at home vs Milwaukee and have now won 11 of the last 14. The Brewers have lost 15 of 21 as a road dog in this range. They are off a tough loss last night and have C. Anderson and his dismal 6.29 road era. His Era vs the Pirates is not much better at 5.29. He will oppose Pirate Lefty J.Locke who has won 5 of 7 at home with a solid 2.56 era. The Pirates also fit a nice system that has won 9 straight times playing on home favorites off a 1 rum home favored win scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss scoring 2 or less runs and committing 3+ errors in the loss. Look for the Pirates to take another tonight.
Art Aronson
Rays vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11½
The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Chris Archer (4-13, 4.68 ERA) who was rocked for four earned runs off seven hits over 7.1 innings in a 4-3 loss to the Orioles on Friday. It will be hard for Archer to break his six start losing streak considering he’s just 3-6 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 5.50) who actually comes into this one off a decent outing, giving up one run over six innings in his team’s 11-6 win over Arizona on Saturday. We’re not reading too much into a couple of decent performances though, De La Rosa entered June with a 10.52 ERA. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head on Wednesday afternoon, the OVER is absolutely worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +117
Edges - Phillies: Jeremy Hellickson 5-1 career team starts versus Miami, and 13-3 last 16 overall team starts during July. Marlins: visiting team 0-3 in Wei-Yin Chen’s career team starts versus Philadelphia, and Chen 2-5 team starts versus N.L East this season. With Chen sporting a 6.00 ERA in his last 7 starts, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.
Bob Harvey
Twins vs. Tigers
Play: Under 9
A pair of hard throwing right-hander’s square off in Detroit where Justin Verlander will face Minnesota’s Ervin Santana in the rubber match of their three-game series.
Minnesota (34-59, 14-30 road) is 5-2 over its past seven games including a 6-2 victory on Tuesday night. Superstar in waiting—Eduardo Nunez—knocked in three runs in support of winning pitcher Tommy Milone who allowed two runs and four hits over a stellar 8.1 innings.
Detroit (49-45, 52-42 home) has hit the skids offensively. They’ve been held to five runs or less in their last nine games. Tigers MVP Miguel Cabrera has really struggled driving in just nine runs, with no home runs, in his past 15 games.
Santana (3-8, 4.12 ERA) has enjoyed plenty of success against Detroit in his career, going 9-3 with one complete game and a 3.27 ERA in 16 starts. He could also be making his final start for the Twins given that he’s rumored to be traded before the deadline.
Verlander (9-6, 3.91 ERA) is finally hitting his stride. After a slow start, the former AL Cy Young winner and MVP has won two straight and five of his last six starts. Verlander is 16-8 with a 3.14 ERA in 31 career outings against Minnesota.
The Twins are just 1-7 in the past eight series meetings.
The Tigers are 8-1 to the UNDER in their past nine overall.
John Ryan
Houston at Oakland
Play: Oakland +123
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-13 since 1997 good for 67% winners and made 22 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (OAKLAND) - poor AL offensive team (under 4.5 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA under 3.33), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is 16-26 (-17.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 28-37 (-20.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 33-42 (-21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 18-34 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 25-38 (-21.4 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Melvin is 70-49 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as the manager of Oakland. Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Athletics are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. American League West.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Oakland Athletics look to ride the momentum of their comeback victory and complete a three-game sweep when they host the American League West-rival Houston Astros for the finale on Wednesday afternoon. Oakland fell into a three-run hole Tuesday but scored two in the seventh inning and one in the ninth before Josh Reddick delivered an RBI infield single a frame later to finish the comeback. Fister is 7-7 lifetime and 2-1 this season against the Athletics. Mengden in June allowed two runs in three of his four starts and three in the other while working at least six innings on three occasions. Take Oakland Athletics.
Frank Jordan
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -180
Atlanta and Cincinnati are each last place teams and are under .500 by 25 games putting them in rebuilding mode. Atlanta is throwing Lucas Harrell who is 4th start of the year and is pitching to a 1.17 ERA on the road after one start. Cincinnati is throwing Anthony DeSclafani who is 4-0 on the year with a 2.55 ERA and Cincinnati is 5-2 in his starts. DeSclafani is 2-0 at home with a 1.80 ERA and is throwing to a 3.38 ERA against the Braves. Look for DeSclafani and Harrell to have a great pitchers duel, but Harrell will get tired and leave some pitches up to be smacked out by the likes of Bruce and Votto in a 7-3 Reds win.
Jim Feist
Padres at Cardinals
Pick: Under
San Diego has a weak offense and starter Andrew Cashner has turned things around, allowing 3 runs or less in 7 of his last nine starts. The Under is 9-2-2 in Cashner's last 13 starts vs. the National League Central. Cashner earned his fourth win of the season Friday versus the Giants, allowing just one run with nine strikeouts compared to no walks across six strong innings. Cashner has now delivered five quality starts in his last eight attempts. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Cardinals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. St. Louis goes with starter Jaime Garcia and the under is 16-5-2 in his last 23 home starts. Batters hit .225 off him at home and the Under is 8-1 in Garcias last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Joe DAmico
Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Angels
Los Angeles is red-hot, winning 5 in a row, including Games 1 and 2 of this series, while Texas, despite clinging to a 4-game lead in the West, has dropped 14 of their 17 contests. The Angels send Hector Santiago to the bump. The LH has won his L4 starts to bring his season numbers up to 7-4 with an ERA of 4.27. The LA lineup has put up 6.75 RPG during those 8 victories. Texas gives Martin Perez the nod. The LH has been shredded in his L2 turns, yielding 17 runs (12 ER's) and 15 hits, in just 9 2/3 IP to bring his stats on the campaign up to 7-6, with a 4.05 ERA. The Rangers pitching staff has allowed foes to post 5 or more runs in 8 of their L10 outings. Los Angeles is 5-0 their L5 at home and 19-7 in Santiago's L26 starts. Texas is 1-5 their L6 on the road and 2-5 their L7 played at Los Angeles.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
The LA Angels have scored 17 runs while winning the first two games of this series and will go for a three-game sweep over the Rangers on Wednesday. Los Angeles now owns the longest active winning streak in MLB with FIVE in a row, having won NINE of its last 11. Meanwhile, Texas has now lost 13 of its last 17, having given up eight or more runs on nine occasions during this trying stretch. However, the Rangers still own a 4 1/2-game lead over second-place Houston in the AL West, with the Angels a long way back at 12 1/2 games!
Tonight’s pitching matchup features Martin Perez (7-6, 4.05 ERA) vs Hector Santiago (7-4, 4.27 ERA). Perez defeated the Angels with six scoreless innings back on May 24 to improve to 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in seven career appearances, including six starts (team is 3-3). However, Perez has been rocked over his last two starts in allowing a whopping 17 runs (12 earned) on 15 hits in just 9.2 innings (that’s an 11.72 ERA!). As for LA’s Santiago, he enters tonight’s contest having not allowed a SINGLE earned run in any of his last three starts. He’s allowed just ONE unearned run in that stretch, over a span of 20 innings (only 12 hits allowed with 20 Ks).
His ERA has been lowered by a full run over these last three outings, going from 5.27 to 4.27 and he’ll seek a FOURTH consecutive win in the finale of LA’s three-game series with Texas. My bet says he gets that fourth straight win, as the Angels win a SIXTH in a row.
Jimmy Boyd
Indians/Royals Under 8.5
The books have set the total way too high for today's afternoon matchup between the Royals and Indians. Both teams are going to send out starters who are throwing it well and in a great spot. Kansas City gives the ball to Ian Kennedy, who has a 3.31 ERA and 1.225 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 2.11 ERA and 1.043 WHIP over 6 home starts.
Cleveland counters with Carlos Carrasco, who has a 2.20 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 1.94 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in 7 road starts. It's also worth nothing how good both starters have been in day games. Kennedy has a 1.46 ERA in 4 starts and Carrasco has been even better with a 1.19 ERA in 4 starts.
UNDER is 31-13 in Cleveland's last 44 road games with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs and 22-8 in the Royals last 30 with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Royals last 28 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6, 5-0 in Carrasco's last 5 road starts and 6-0-1 in Kennedy's last 7 starts against an opponent that just scored 5 or more runs.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +117
Philadelphia right-hander Jeremy Hellickson toes the rubber in good form with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last three starts. The 29-year-old has been especially effective in July, where he has posted a 3.00 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 18 IP (18.7% K% & 4.0% BB%).
Hellickson has also garnered a 3.98 ERA at home, which is supported by a 3.97 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP (22.0% K%; 4.9% BB%). Let's also note that the underrated hurler has limited the Marlins to 3 earned runs or less in each of his last four outings and 5 of his last six starts against Miami. In contrast, Miami southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has yielded a combined 7 runs (6 ER) in his last two starts against the Phillies, a span of just 11 IP.
Chen also owns a pedestrian 4.90 ERA, 4.63 FIP and 4.25 SIERA this season, together with an alarming 1.63 HR/9 rate and 14.5% HR/FB%.
BUSTER SPORTS
Toronto at Arizona
Play: Over 9
Stroman is 4-3 with a 5.34 ERA and a WHIP of 1.419 in nine road starts this season. In the month of June he had a 7.76 ERA with a WHIP of 1.91 Corbin has a 0-6 record at Home and a 7.15 ERA with a WHIP of 1.649. Last 3 starts 7.07 ERA with a WHIP of 1.929 These two teams will have their hitting shoes on all day.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Play: Houston Astros -124
Daniel Mengden showed some promise his first few starts, but then things went downhill as he has given up 17 runs (16 earned) and 19 hits his last three outings in just 13 1/3 innings. Oakland won his last start 8-7 over Toronto, however, Mengden didn't make it out of the fourth inning after being knocked around for seven runs and six hits plus three walks. The Athletics have lost five of his seven appearances and he is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA at home. The Astros scored six runs in 4 2/3 innings against Mengden on July 8. Doug Fister has shut down the Athletics this season allowing only three runs in 20 1/3 innings for a 1.31 ERA. Houston has won 11 of Fister's last 14 starts and I'm backing them in this one.
Nelly
Kansas City Royals + over Cleveland Indians
Ian Kennedy has endured an up-and-down season for the Royals with a great start to season before a mostly miserable stretch in late May into early June. Kennedy has rebounded with five straight strong outings for the Royals featuring a 2.96 ERA since June 21, posting 34 strikeouts in just over 27 innings of work. Four of those starts have been on the road including tough venues in his last two starts against Toronto and Detroit. The Royals are 30-14 in home games after shocking the Indians with a comeback win on Monday but losing behind an unproven starter last night. While the World Series champions have been somewhat underwhelming this season this is a huge series for the team and the host has completely dominated in the matchups between these squads this season. Kennedy has also been his best at Kauffman Stadium with a 2.11 ERA and the Royals 5-1 in his home starts. Carlos Carrasco is finally delivering on years of promise and expectations with a great season going to help the AL Central leading Indians. Carrasco has not had the same success against the Royals as in two starts this season he has surrendered 19 hits and five runs in 11 innings of work without picking up a win. The Cleveland bullpen has shown some recent vulnerability and that is still an area where the Royals have an edge in this matchup even with the recent late innings shuffling. This is a very favorable price on one of baseball's best home teams and the recent form for Kennedy is especially enticing while Carrasco looks due for regression sporting a 4.10 FIP relative to his 2.49 ERA.
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Pick: San Diego Padres Game 1
Even though the Cardinals Carlos Martinez has the better overall numbers in comparison with the Padres Colin Rea, there are a number of key factors as to why San Diego is offering extreme line value in this big dog spot. The Padres are 5-1 in Rea's 6 road starts this season. The Cardinals are 3-7 in the 10 home starts that Martinez has made this year! Rea has given up just 19 hits in his last 22 innings of work. He gave up 2 earned runs or less in 3 of those 4 starts. Martinez has given up 17 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two home starts. Though the Cardinals won yesterday's game they had only won 12 of their 28 prior games. Though the Padres lost Monday they had previously won 3 straight and 14 of their last 23 games. San Diego has struggled badly in day games this season but is actually a profit-producing 34-29 (+16.7 net units!) in night games. The Cardinals are only 21-28 (-16.5 net units!) in home games this year! The Padres got pummeled yesterday and are 17-12 the last 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Look for the Cardinals to drop to 5-9 in their Tuesday games this season as they drop to 3-8 in home games started by Martinez this year! Tremendous underdog line value here as Rea has been notching a lot of strikeouts and is pitching better than his ERA would lead you to believe.