Sleepyj
Braves / Reds Under 9
I'll be on the under here....Two decent pitchers get the call here early today...Braves Harrell is off a bad outing, but I expect him to rebound here in this one..he has some good stuff from what I see...He will have to navigate through this Reds lineup, but if he can limit walks and HR's that would be what is needed...DeSclafani is a good pitcher IMO...I'm surprised the Reds haven't dealt him away for some young prospects yet....Braves on the road will have trouble hitting him for sure...Lots of trade rumors for both teams and you wonder how the players are thinking heading into these games right now from these two clubs. Reds off a loss will look to bounce back, but I feel this one is all about the pitchers today. My numbers came out to 8o15....So I find value in getting a 9u25 right now..Under it is for me.
Chase Diamond
Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Brewers
Nice chance to make some plus money again on a game between the 39-52 Brewers and the 48-45 Pirates. I really like Chase Anderson although he has really been lit up last couple times out. I believe tonight he comes into super motivated to keep his rotation spot and the Brewers look to avoid losing 3 games straight. Brewers lost a close one last night but I think that will only motivate them more here. I think we are getting great plus money value here Jeff Locke is not much of a starter. 74% of the public are backing the Pirates yet we see this line moving the other way.
Brandon Lee
Astros -121
This is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Astros. Houston will be motivated to avoid getting swept and will have a big advantage on the mound with Doug Fister facing off against Daniel Mengden. Fister has quietly gone 9-6 with a 3.64 ERA in 18 starts and has owned the A's in 3 starts against them this season, allowing just 3 runs on 14 hits in 20 2/3 innings of work. Mengden on the other hand is 1-4 with a 5.54 ERA in 7 starts and has a 10.80 ERA and 2.101 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Mengden just faced the Astros on 7/8 and gave up 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings of work.
ASA
Toronto at Arizona
Play: Over 9
Toronto has a sub-.500 record against southpaws this season and has had a heavy shading toward the under in their games against left-handed starters. However, this is Patrick Corbin they face today and that is the key. Corbin has been struggling mightily including an ugly 6.46 ERA over the past two months. In other words, Corbin has been consistently bad and the Blue Jays can be expected to have a big day at the plate today. They will need it because Marcus Stroman is toeing the rubber for the Jays this afternoon and he has a 10.89 ERA in his last 4 road starts! Stroman has given up 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 road starts. The over is 8-4 in Stroman's last 12 starts. The over is 12-4-1 in Corbin's last 17 starts! The Diamondbacks were held to just 1 run yesterday but previously had scored 6 runs or more in 4 of their last 5 home games. They'll bounce back today. The Blue Jays are averaging 5.4 runs per game in their last 5 games.
Vegas Butcher
Cleveland Indians -132
Ian Kennedy has gone from 3.9, to 4.6, to 4.8 SIERA’s in his first 3 starts against the Indians this year. The more he sees them, the better they do against him. Coming off an inefficient start, where he threw 100 pitches in only 5 innings, I don’t see things getting any easier against a top-5 offense against right-handers. Throw in the fact that Carrasco has been lights out and I really like the chances of another win for Cleveland in this matchup.
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play on the Marlins to take another at the Phillies expense.
Miami came back on Monday with a pair in the ninth to beat the Phils in extra-innings, and they won another one run, extra-inning affair last night over Philadelphia.
I say let's ride the Fish one more time, as it is obvious to me that Miami feels a little "comfortable" in this series this week.
The Marlins are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card pursuit, and starter Wei-Yin Chen does own a 1-1 mark against Philly with a 2.84 in his 3 careers starts, so look for him to post a quality start that sees the Marlins once again nip the snake-bitten Phils.
Roll with Miami on Wedneday.
3* MIAMI
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is for King Felix to return with a bang at Safeco Field.
Felix Hernandez is back for his first start since May 27th, and while I do not expect a 9 inning, no-hitter, I do expect him to be dominant and give the M's the ptiching rotation boost that they need to take this game by at least a pair of runs.
Miguel Gonzalez will counter with a 2-5 season mark, and a 4.40 ERA.
Chicago snapped a 5-game losing streak with the win last night, but I don't see them being as lucky today in the series finale.
With 7-plus weeks of rest under his belt, look for Hernandez to post a slew of goose eggs on the scoreboard, and look for the Mariners to stay relevant in pursuit of a Wild Card.
M's on the Run Line.
3* SEATTLE -1.5
Gabriel DuPon
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 85-73 run with free picks: Toronto (-1', +100) at ARIZONA.
The STORYLINE in this game today - Let's head to Phoenix for my complimentary winner, as I love this game between the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays and usually savvy Arizona Diamondbacks. But in this one I am taking the Blue Jays, as I think there is a severe pitching mismatch, and the road team is going to come out ahead by plenty of runs.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key here is with Marcus Stroman, the Jays' crafty right-hander, who I know has never faced the Diamondbacks in his career, but has made eight appearances in Interleague Play. And here's the thing, in those eight outings - five starts and three relief appearances - Stroman is 4-0 with a 1.88 ERA over 38-1/3 innings vs. the National League.
BOTTOM LINE is - He'll get the run support, as Corbin is 0-2 with an 8.35 ERA over his last four trips to the mound, and has been tagged for 19 home runs in 19 starts. His last win was back on June 21, when he allowed two runs in 6-1/3 innings against these Blue Jays. Today he gets rocked.
1* BLUE JAYS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for today is on the Boston Red Sox on the Run Line, as they host the San Francisco Giants.
This is more about the Crimson Hose taking advantage of a slumping Giants team that is on the road, and likely a bit tired after opening the second half of the season in San Diego, losing all three to the lowly Padres, traveled cross country two days ago and then lost yesterday to one of the hottest hitting teams in the league.
This is going to be troublesome for the N.L. West leaders
For the season, the Red Sox rank No. 1 in the bigs with a .288 batting average, while the Giants rank 11th with a .260 clip. But the telling numbers are the Red Sox at home (.301) and Boston in the month of July (.298). In contrast, the Giants are hitting .230 this month and .256 on the road.
I don't see Frisco hanging with the Red Sox offensively in this one.
5* RED SOX -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals in their doubleheader opener, against the San Diego Padres. And in this one I want you specifically playing Carlos Martinez over Colin Rea, so be sure to list both pitchers.
Martinez is in after striking out 11 batters in a game for the first time since June 2015, in his last start just before the All-Star break. He looked brilliant, in fact, against the Brewers and has been anxious to return to the hill. His mechanics have developed nicely, and will handcuff the Padres. The right-hander has allowed six total runs over his last six starts with a 1.34 ERA during that span.
Meanwhile, while Rea's early numbers revealed he was allowing a low number of home runs per nine innings, it's increased of late, and now takes on the always dangerous Cardinals, in their ballpark and in the opener of a double dip. Never a good thing. St. Louis will set the tone for this twinbill by opening things up with an offensive surge.
1* CARDINALS
RAY MONOHAN
Los Angeles / Washington Under 9
The Dodgers and Nationals get set for Wednesday night action and the Under holds some value here. RH Bud Norris may be a little undervalued here by oddsmakers. Norris has gone 2-0 since coming over in a trade from Atlanta and has given the Dodgers a chance in every start.
Gio Gonzalez counters here and he's had solid career success against Los Angeles. Gonzalez has gone 2-1 with a stellar ERA of just 1.73 in 4 career starts. Both teams are surrendering well under 4 runs per game on the season as well, as both bullpens have done a nice job late in games.
Some trends to consider. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Under is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 overall. This is a nice spot here to grab the Under.
The total is on the higher side, which even gives both starters a little wiggle room.
JACK JONES
Cardinals -1.5 +10 Game 1
The St. Louis Cardinals hung 10 runs on the San Diego Padres Monday in an 8-run victory. I look for them to swing the bats well again today and put up another big number to beat the Padres by multiple runs in Game 1 of this double-header.
The Cards clearly have the edge on the mound behind Carlos Martinez, who is 8-6 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Martinez has posted a 2.77 ERA in two career starts against the Padres as well.
Colin Rea is 5-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.710 WHIP in six road starts. Rea has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in two career starts against them.
San Diego is 4-28 (-20.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last three seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 3.0 runs per game. St. Louis is 22-7 (+12.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. It is winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.
DAVE PRICE
Yankees/Orioles Over 8.5
The Key: I wouldn't be surprised if either the Yankees or the Orioles score 9 runs or more on their own tonight to cover this OVER themselves. Yovani Gallardo has been atrocious this season, going 3-1 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.759 WHIP in 10 starts, and 1-1 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in 6 road starts. Michael Pineda hasn't been much better, going 3-9 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.365 WHIP in 18 starts. He has allowed 15 homers in 57 2/3 innings at home this season. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. New York, while Pineda is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA in his last 3 starts against Baltimore.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -1½ +120 over N.Y. Mets
The total here strongly suggests that the wind is blowing out at ‘ol Wrigley Field today and that gives us three options. Option one would be to lay off the game altogether. Option two would be to play Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks does not possess the raw stuff of others mentioned here, but that lack of flash hasn't limited his effectiveness during the last 12 months (3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). His skills over the same period place him in the top 25 among all starters in MLB with 8.6 K’s/9, 2.5 BB’s/9 and 53% groundballs. Even though he's pitching at his potential now and his year-to-date 2.55 ERA will likely head north of 3.00, as his 26% hit rate and 79% strand regress, Hendricks is a great option with the wind blowing out because of his elite groundball ways. That makes him a pitcher that could not care less about which way the wind shall blow. That brings us to option three.
Bartolo Colon made the All-Star team almost 20 years after his first All-Star appearance. While there are no guarantees of anything in sports, we’re pretty sure that there will never be another big-headed, out-of-shape, all-you-can-eat-buffet loving 43-year-old starter that throws 87.8 MPH heat 88% of the time that makes another All-Star game. Colon has a BB/K split of 6/13 over his last 24 innings. His swing and miss rate of 4% since the beginning of June is the lowest among all starters in the game with five starts or more over that span. His xERA of 5.56 is nearly 2½-runs higher than his actual ERA of 3.13. He’ll now bring his 26%/33% line-drive/fly-ball profile to Wrigley with the wind blowing out. Colon’s 84% strand rate makes him the luckiest pitcher in MLB. He’s like the movie “Clockwork Orange” in that he’s developed a cult following but that’s a story for ESPN’s 30/30. Colon’s good fortune holding up this long is remarkable. We find it hard to understand how he gets through one inning, let alone nearly four months of a near 3.00 ERA, which brings us back to the three options. Again, we can lay off, we can play Hendricks and his groundball ways or we can play Colon and hope those hard hit fly-balls land in someone’s glove with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Colon’s gig is likely over, at least for today.
Los Angeles +105 over WASHINGTON
Gio Gonzalez has 103 K’s in 104 innings but with a 10% swing and miss rate and 91 MPH heat, don’t expect that K-rate to continue much longer. Gonzalez’s reputation is much better than his skills, which provides us with this opportunity. Gonzalez has a WHIP of 1.40. When he gets into trouble, he rarely gets out of it because he battles his mind too. He’s easily rattled so when guys get on base he slows down to a snail’s pace. We’re seeing signs of extreme fatigue too. Gonzalez is getting the ball up and walking too many batters lately with 16 walks over his past 26 frames. Since the beginning of June and covering seven starts, Gonzalez has a WHIP of 1.81. The Dodgers come in swinging some pretty hot sticks right now and we absolutely trust them to put up a sweet number again here.
Bud Norris was demoted to the bullpen after posting an 8.74 ERA and 1.99 WHIP during the month of April. Injuries led to the 31-year-old getting another shot in the starting rotation in early June and he has taken advantage, posting a 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 40.1 IP spanning seven starts. It’s all legit but on paper, his ERA is well over 4.00.
Norris's overall control mark this year is right in line with his career mark but he owns a Ball% and first-pitch strike rate that supports his 2.5 BB’s/9 since the beginning of June. Norris has gotten more swings and misses of late (June/July: 11%/13% - 8.6/10.6 K’s/9), thanks largely to the addition of a new pitch—a cutter (20% swing and miss rate) that he has used 15% of the time. Norris has always struggled vs. left-handed batters, but the cutter has replaced a woefully ineffective change-up as his primary weapon against them and the early results are extremely positive. Left-handed batters had a lifetime .290 BA and .479 SLG vs. the change-up as opposed to a .208 BA and .250 SLG thus far vs. the cutter. The cutter has also contributed to an uptick in groundball %, so that’s yet another benefit that has come from the change in pitch mix. In addition to scrapping the change-up in favor of the cutter, Norris also tweaked his mechanics to improve his posture on the mound. These adjustments have paid huge dividends, but we must also remember that we’re talking about a very small sample size. It will be interesting to see how he fares as batters see more of the “new” Bud Norris and have the opportunity to make adjustments of their own. Still, he makes for a decent bet pitching for the Dodgers, at least for now and perhaps for a few more starts. We’re stepping in.
Miami -1½ +127 over PHILADELPHIA
Jeremy Hellickson is a former top-tier prospect who has, for the most part, struggled to deliver on that prospect pedigree in five-plus years at the big-league level. Now pitching for Philadelphia, Hellickson is showing some skills development in this, his age-29 season. Here, we’ll put Hellickson under our spotlight, seeking to identify the drivers of this newfound success and assess whether they are sustainable. We'll check in on the following three areas:
Fastball velocity and command
Distribution and effectiveness of his secondary pitches
Approach and effectiveness vs. left-handed hitters.
The issue with left-handers merits further discussion and we’ll get into that in a minute. Hellickson’s initial call-up report from August 2010 cited an "88-93 mph fastball", but Hellickson has struggled to hold on to that range.Once a pitcher falls below 91 mph, his fastball can be a liability, regardless of how much command comes with it. Hellickson has been living below that line for four years running now. That's a discouraging trend, but not a surprising one. The rising BA against the pitch correlates perfectly with its declining velocity. Hellickson is surely aware of this, as he is responding by throwing the four-seamer at a career-low rate this season, compensating instead with the cutter and/or sinker.The hittability of Hellickson's fastballs put significant pressure on his secondary pitches. For him to be successful, he needs very good to elite offerings alongside the fastball.
So far this year, Hellickson is getting swing-and-misses on nearly 31% of the swings on his change-up, which represents a 50% gain over his prior, well-established, levels.Let's not sell the curveball short, either. It's not a swing-and-miss weapon like the change-up, but it is effective in a different way in that it helps him get ahead in the count. However, for all of the progress that Hellickson seems to be making this year, a new weakness has been exposed in that he doesn't seem to have an answer for left-handed hitters. Hellickson’s career platoon split was essentially flat until this year, and the problem doesn't look to be a fluke: it's manifested in SLG% as well as BA, with only a mild hit % gap between sides, and the command gap between sides is striking.It's those mediocre fastballs again. Whether it’s the four-seam fastball or that cutter/slider, lefties are tattooing both offerings, to the tune of 700+ SLG%. Right-handers get their fair share of good hacks at Hellickson's fastballs, but left-handers are simply raking against it.
In conclusion, Hellickson starts out with a significant handicap: his barely-cracking-90-mph fastball is a liability, which in turn calls for elite secondary offerings to compensate for the minus fastball. Hellickson has made some notable gains with his secondary offerings this year, particularly his change-up. With two near-elite offerings in his change-up and curveball, Hellickson has the tools to survive and occasionally thrive without lighting up the radar gun. Further, Hellickson is seemingly aware of the problem, and is actively reducing his use of his four-seam fastball. The cutter he has introduced is not a good pitch either, but it does point to awareness of the root issue.
Still, we can't give credit just for trying new things. Results matter and surviving without a quality fastball is a constant tap-dance for any pitcher. When Hellickson finds himself in situations where he needs to turn to his fastball, peril ensues—particularly against left-handed hitters. The Marlins will send up at least three very solid left-handed hitters today in Derek Dietrich, Ichiro Suzuki and Christian Yelich. Hellickson has not been able to recapture that early-career ability to outpitch his xERA, though he has since fallen into a much more typical ERA/xERA separation. What we are left with is a pitcher who has re-established some value this year, but lacks much further upside beyond the skills he is currently displaying (4.40 xERA) and that’s just not good enough against the Marlins.
Meanwhile, Wei-Yin Chen posted a cumulative ERA of 3.44 the past two seasons in Baltimore. He outpitched his peripherals, but with a move to the National League, and to a more pitcher-friendly home park, good things were expected again in 2016. That hasn't been the case so far but Chen’s skills are nearly identical to those of the past couple seasons. Chen is still getting his fair share of swings and misses, and both his K-rate and strikeout percentage (20%) are currently career highs. He hasn't been able to repeat last year's elite first-pitch strike mark, but he remains stingy with the walks, and should continue to excel in that area. His groundball rate is consistently low, which has led to some home run problems throughout his career. It's been a major issue so far this year, with 15 home runs allowed already, but his home run per fly ball rate should go down as the season progresses.
Chen has failed to meet expectations so far with his new team, as his home run issues have escalated, especially on the road, where he's served up 13 long balls in nine starts. However, his skills, while unspectacular, are remarkably consistent, and he's even bumped his strikeout rate up a bit. Chen was fortunate to post such low ERA's the past two seasons, but with nearly identical skills, a rebound should be forthcoming to his current 4.90 ERA. Now would be a good time to buy Chen, as the Phillies are brutal against lefties and the Marlins are heating up big time.
Power Sports
Orioles vs.Yankees
Pick: Yankees
That sound you hear might be George Steinbrenner yelling from the grave as the Yankees are widely expected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline. The bullpen trio of Miller-Betances-Chapman is the envy of every contender and unlike the team in pinstripes, any one of the three would be of great use to a top team.
But for now, skipper Joe Girardi still has the trio at his disposal and the team has allowed all of three runs during its current three-game win streak. The last two victories have come here in the Bronx at the Orioles' expense, an impressive feat considering what we've come to expect from the Baltimore bats. Michael Pineda is off a couple of less than stellar showings, but I'll call for him to bounce back here as he is unbeaten in four career matchups vs. the O's (1.98 ERA). All we need is a quality start as we know a bullpen that hasn't allowed a run in 25+ IP will take care of business.
The fact that Baltimore is in first place with such a putrid starting rotation should be considered somewhat of a minor miracle. Yovani Gallardo has a 7.39 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in six road starts and will go tonight. There's little to no reason to expect him to turn things around. The price range is key here as well as the Orioles are only 2-9 at +125 to +150 on the money line while the Yanks are 6-2 when -150 to -175. Sharp money seems to be on New York's side here.