Free Picks for Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ROYALS VS. TIGERS
PLAY: ROYALS +105
Two teams heading in very opposite directions and with what I suspect are two very different mindsets here. The Royals are on fire and with their win on Tuesday, the team jumped into the second wild card spot in the American League. The Tigers are dead in the water and appear poised to start selling off pieces as the trade deadline approaches.
As for this matchup, Ian Kennedy got roughed up last tine out for KC. But I’ll give him a partial pass as this was a day game in very hot and humid conditions. Not exactly a picnic for any pitcher. The Royals righty had been pitching pretty well prior to that glitch and I can see him having a reasonably good outing tonight.
Anibal Sanchez will throw for the Tigers. Sanchez has been mostly okay since coming back to the big club. But the old pro is also pretty much only good for a couple trips through the batting order. That means a good likelihood of at least four innings of work for the shaky Detroit bullpen.
The one little fly in the ointment is that Salvy Perez might be out tonight for KC due to a rib issue. It’s apparently pretty minor. But Perez can certainly use an extra day off considering his enormous workload and he’s actually got some pretty lousy career numbers against Sanchez to boot.
I can’t see KC as the underdog here. The Tigers are anything but go with right now and the road team is blazing hot. At any plus price, I’ve got to side with the Royals.
Scott Rickenbach
Reds vs. Yankees
Play: Under 9
The Reds Homer Bailey has poor numbers on the season in his limited action but, in July, he has pitched very well in 3 of his 4 starts. In fact, in those 3 outings he allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings of work. Velocity on his fastball is up and the under was a perfect 3-0 in those 3 quality starts for Bailey. The Reds come into this game having stayed under the total in 5 straight games while the Yankees are on a 9-2 run to the under in their last 11 games. Luis Severino gets the start for the Yanks and he is a hard thrower whom the Reds have never faced. By the way, Bailey hasn't made a start against the Yankees since 2012 so that truly won't help the current Yanks lineup at all and the Reds lineup will be getting their first look at Severino. The Yankees right-hander has seen 4 of his last 5 starts result in an under. Severino has given up a total of only 5 earned runs in 28 innings in those 4 starts. In other words, there is plenty of reason to expect the under trend to continue in this match-up early Wednesday afternoon. Look for the under to improve to 17-4 in Reds July games!
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -137
We have played against Ubaldo Jimenez a few times this season and we will again today. The Baltimore righty has been a disaster, including both on the road and in daytime outings and he owns a 9.95 ERA & 2.11 WHIP in four July starts. Jimenez has lasted just 19 innings in the four outings, allowing 6 home runs with a .365 BAA. The Rays have hit he 6th most home runs in MLB this season and could tee-off here. I certainly expect enough run support for Alex Cobb, who's lasted at least 7 2/3 innings in each of his last three starts, posting a 1.54 ERA. The righthander has a sizzling, 0.97 WHIP in eight home starts this season. Tampa Bay snapped a 5-game skid last night and we expect the Rays to make it back-to-back wins before heading to the Bronx for a series against the Yanks.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +140
Edges - Rockies: Hoffman 2.45 ERA with 0.85 WHIP away as opposed to 7.84 ERA with 1.84 WHIP at home this season… Cardinals: Martinez 1-5 last six team starts during July, and 1-3 versus NL West this season… With Hoffman 3-0 as a dog this season, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Kevin Thomas
Houston vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +1½
As much as teams want to win AJ Hinch manager of the Astros knows his team is in. He also realizes division and conference wins are better than winning Interleague games. Already up 2-0 on the Phillies we expect more rest for some injured players that could go like Alex Bergman. Nola has emerged as the Phillies ACE. Even though Fiers has not faced the Phillies since he pitched for the Brewers he did have his struggles in Philly.
Sean Murphy
Cincinnati at New York
Play: New York -225
We're dealing with a fairly steep price in this matchup, but I believe it could be even higher. Luis Severino has been terrific all season, but even moreso of late, working at least seven innings and allowing a grand total of just four earned runs over his last three starts. He should handle a Reds order that is having a tough time scoring runs in bunches right now. Give Reds starter Homer Bailey credit as he has bounced back with some strong outings lately, but he'll be in tough against the Yankees, who should be able to scratch out enough runs to secure another victory on Wednesday afternoon.
Chase Diamond
Reds vs. Yankees
Play: Reds +213
This game features the 41-59 Reds at the 52-46 Yankees. I gave out a free plus money big dog yesterday in the Braves and come back with the Reds today early. Homer Bailey has been up and down an mostly down since coming back from the DL but he has the stuff he showed it in the minors before getting the re-call and I think the Reds and Homer will go all out for the win today as the Yankees might catch themselves asleep at the wheel. 81% of the bets are coming in on the Yankees that is a'lot of money.
Ben Burns
A's vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9½
These teams combined for just five runs in Toronto’s 4-1 victory yesterday, but recent form displayed by Wednesday’s starting pitchers suggests that we’ll have more of a “slug-fest” on our hands tonight. The A’s turn to Paul Blackburn (1-1, 2.88 ERA) who was rocked for four earned runs off six hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in a 7-5 loss to New York on Friday. Are Blackburn’s early numbers all “smoke and mirrors?” Perhaps, considering that he has just nine K’s over 25 innings of work. Toronto counters with Marco Estrada (4-7, 5.52) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Friday, giving up five runs off six hits over 4.2 innings. Oakland has seen the total go over the number in 41 of 75 against right-handed starters this year, while Toronto has seen the total go over the number in 37 of 69 in the same position.
3G-Sports
Oakland vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto -160
When the 34 year old doesn't have to always worry about 1 run coming in on a non-hit play, then the Toronto righty has a better comfort zone on the whole, when pitching. Estrada has been throwing pitches that will are tough to hit with his high fastball and low plate change up. When the Jays think they have to play the perfect game, that is when dumb mistakes can be made. Not here. The Oakland offense continues to be a puzzle every game - with far too many poor outings. They only give up 3 runs in the first game with ease - then go out and give up 7 - it is craziness across the board. Oakland leading HR bat, Khris Davis, needs to get some handle of direction - swinging for the fences and striking out with lead runs on base is not a good habit to have Oakland is just 16-33 on the road and I think they'll struggle again here at Toronto on Winsday night.
Mike Anthony
Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco
Play: Pittsburgh +112
Since the Pittsburgh defense has come alive, since the break - and allowing just a few sprinkled runs being scored - they might start showing that they can win the close low scoring ball games. I don't see any issue with Andrew McCutchen as the top man for the Pirates, as he has been very solid with his avg, bat power, and run scoring - he has been everything for this team. Pittsburgh has been making a play on the fly balls coming at them in CF - and McCutchen can take care of business on the those as well. This inconsistent San Francisco offense is way passed waking - 2 runs isn't going to cut it. 1 run scored one day and an oddball 7-8, the next is beyond poor baseball. Samardzija's control remains shaky -- he has a .275 batting avg against him and an untimely knack for giving up big hits, as well as the Giants poor run support have left him with even worse situations to deal with.
Frank Jordan
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -134
Tampa Bay put up a five spot in the second inning and held on to win 5-4 as the Orioles put up runs in the 5th, 7th and 8th only to fall short. Wednesday is getaway day in this rubber match with the Orioles winning 5-0 on Monday. Baltimore is throwing Ubaldo Jimenez who is 4-6 with an ERA over seven and has dropped three of his last four starts. Jimenez is pitching a little better on the road with three of his four wins coming on the road and lower ERA of 6.39 which is two runs lower than at home. Jimenez 0-2 with a 12 ERA since the all-star break and is 0-1 in two starts against Tampa Bay with a 19.06 ERA. Jimenez is 0-1 in Tampa Bay this year with an ERA of 34.71 as he gave up nine runs in less than three innings. Overall in five career games in Tampa Bay Jimenez is 2-3 with an ERA of 6.67. Alex Cobb is 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA and is 2-0 in his last three games allowing just four runs in those three starts. Cobb is sporting a 2.75 ERA at home and a 4-3 record. Cobb is 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA since the all-star break, but 0-1 in two starts against Baltimore this year with a 6.35 ERA, however those games were in Baltimore. Look for Cobb to be sharp at home and Jimenez to have his struggles continue under the dome with a 8-3 victory by the Rays.
Jim Feist
Royals at Tigers
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and the light hitting Kansas City Royals are in town, tops in baseball defensively, on a 9-4-1 run under the total. Ian Kennedy is holding batters to a .214 average. Anibal Sanchez goes for Detroit, throwing much better after a dreadful start, allowing 3 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. And the Under is 9-4 in Sanchez's last 13 starts vs. the Royals.
Carmine Bianco
Jamaica vs. USA
Play: USA -1
It's the Gold Cup Final on Wednesday night at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara as tournament co favourites look for their first final win in four years and will take on surprise finalists Jamaica. This Jamaican side came through Group B finishing 2nd before a 2-1 Quarterfinal win over Canada and on Sunday surprised tournament co favourites Mexico with a 86th goal off a free kick to win 1-0. The US men's team finished in top spot in Group B before a Quarterfinal 2-0 win over El Salvador and a 2-0 Semi Final win over Costa Rica. Breaking down this Final and our selection on the US Men's team will come down to execution of midfield and strikers. The Jamaican team have progresssed in this tournament via a defense first mentality and coiuld be found regularly defending their 6 yard box with 9 men. It's a defensive formation that Mexico in two games (Group stage 0-0 and Semi 0-1 final scores) were unable to solve. As impressive as those results were we need to consider that Mexico did struggle offensively this tournament and were minus many of their key players after their National team were involved in last months Confederation Cup with many going back to their domestic clubs for preseason. Jamaica did get broken down defensively allowing goals against physical sides in El Salvador and Canada. They'll now face a US men's side that took advantage of the roster change rule and added team regulars and stars into their playoff roster and it led to a couple 2-0 wins. They faced a similar defensive first mined side in Costa Rica and were able to eventually break through. The rhythm and pace and organization of this USA side with the added changes will be a step up in class for Jamaica to face with Bradley controlling midfield and Dempsey and Altidore up front and Altidores physical play should create space in a tight 6 yard box for Dempsey. Not expecting much attack from Jamaica until they get down a goal and that should provide the US team with the ability to strike again soon after. It's a strong lean on the USMNT -1 on Wednesday night.
Larry Ness
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -120
The KC Royals made it seven straight wins with their 3-1 victory over the Tigers last night. KC now holds down the final wild card spot in the AL at 52-47 and has closed to within 1 1/2 games of the Indians in the AL Central. The Tigers have now lost five of seven and at 45-54, are eight back of Cleveland in the division (seven back in the AL wild card hunt, as owners of the AL's third-worst record).
Ian Kennedy (3-6, 4.61 ERA) takes the mound for KC and Anibal Sanchez (2-0, 5.95 ERA) for the Tigers, as the Royals look to complete a second straight series sweep (swept the White Sox this past weekend in KC). Kennedy lost his first six decisions to open the 2017 season (Royals were 3-8 in those 11 starts) and didn't pick up his first win until June 16. However, that 3-1 win at the LAA, has sparked a run of seven unbeaten starts in which Kennedy is 3-0 and the Royals are 6-1. Kennedy won at Detroit on June 28 with seven innings of two-run ball but that left him just 2-4 with a 4.34 ERA against the Tigers in eight career starts (teams are 2-6).
The Tigers brought Sanchez back in mid-June (after a stint in the minors and the bullpen) and in six starts since June 19, he's 2-0 and the Tigers are 4-2. Detroit has won Sanchez's last four starts. Sanchez is 6-4 with a 2.38 ERA in 13 career starts versus the Royals (teams are 8-5).
Sanchez has been (and still can be) an effective major-league pitcher. I'll back him here.