Will Rogers
Colorado vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -152
The set-up: Paul DeJong's two-run HR led the way for the Cards' 3-2 win Tuesday over the Rockies. The 23-year-old has created quite the buzz during his two months in the majors (13 HRs and 29 RBI in 48 games) and he's helping the St. Louis Cardinals remain in contention in the NL Central. The 49-51 Cards are four games out of first-place in the division. The Rockies, despite losses in 15 of their last 18 road games, are still holding down the NL's second wild card spot, 4 1/2 games clear of the Cubs. The Cardinals go for a three-game sweep of the visiting Rockies on Wednesday night.
The pitching matchup: Jeff Hoffman (6-2 & 5.10 ERA) will start for Colorado and Carlos Martinez (6-8 & 3.34 ERA) for St. Louis. Hoffman allowed seven runs and career-high totals in hits (nine) and walks (four) in a season-low three innings against Pittsburgh last Friday in a 13-5 loss. It marked his first since June 21. The good news here is, Hoffman has pitched considerably better, on the road, posting a 4-0 mark with a 2.45 ERA while allowing opposing batters to hit just .197 against him. That's opposed to a 2-2 record with a 7.79 ERA and .316 BAA at Coors Field! This is his first start vs. the Cards. Martinez saw his win-less stretch extend to six outings this past Friday, when he took a no-decision St. Louis' 11-4 win at Chicago. Martinez is 0-3 in his last six starts with the Cards going 1-5. Martinez is 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts vs. Colorado, including losing 10-0 to them back in May (note: allowed just three runs on six hits in 7 1/3 innings).
The pick: Right now, the MAJOR factor in this contest has to be Colorado's 15 losses in its last 18 road games. Take St. Louis to complete the sweep.
BRANDON LEE
Pirates vs. Giants
Play: Giants -142
San Francisco is worth a look here at home against the Pirates. The Giants evened up the series with a convincing 12-3 win on Tuesday and I just think the value here is with San Francisco given the pitching matchup and the struggling Pirates offense that just recently lost one of their best offensive players in outfield Gregory Polanco. Giants are turning to Jeff Samardzija, who has pitched so much better than his 4-11 record and 5.05 ERA would suggest and that's backed up by how big a favorite he is here. Pittsburgh will give the ball to Trevor Williams, who leaves a lot to be desired. He's got a 4.76 ERA in 14 starts overall, 5.45 ERA away from home and is not in good form with a 5.62 ERA over his last 3 outings.
JOHN MARTIN
Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick:Kansas City +112
I've cashed the Royals a lot recently, including the last two days as +134 and +137 dogs. They are dogs again today despite the fact that they have one of the best records in baseball since the start of June. The Royals have now won seven of Ian Kennedy's last eight starts while providing him 5.9 runs of support during this stretch. Kennedy has been at his best on the road where he is 3-2 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in nine starts away from home. The Tigers have dropped five of their last seven and are swirling in trade rumors right now after dealing away JD Martinez to the Diamondbacks. Kansas City is 30-15 (+20.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
RAY MONOHAN
Marlins vs. Rangers
Play:Under 10½
The Miami Marlins and the Texas Rangers face off on Wednesday night, and with such a high total, the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Marlins is Jose Urena who has pitched well this season. He comes into this game with an 8-4 record and an ERA of 3.74. In his last game he pitched really well. He went six innings against the Reds giving up three hits and only one run.
On the mound for the Rangers is Yu Darvish, who is hot commodity this trade season and he has pitched pretty well this season. When he goes out to the mound you know he is probably going to give up two or three runs, but that is usually it. Some trends to note. Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games. Under is 10-2 in Darvishs last 12 interleague starts.
DAVE PRICE
Astros vs. Phillies
Play: Astros -118
We're getting one of the best teams in baseball in the Houston Astros (67-33) against the worst team in baseball in the Philadelphia Phillies (34-64) as only -118 favorites today. The Astros have the best road record in baseball at 37-12 and +23.2 units of profit. Starter Mike Fiers has been flying under the radar at 6-2 with a 2.36 ERA in his last 10 starts. I think a big reason why this line is so low is because Aaron Nola has also been hot of late. But he has done most of his damage against weak NL lineups, and now he has to face an Astros lineup that is hitting .304 and scoring 7.2 RPG on the road this season. The Astros are 9-0 against NL East teams this season.
TEDDY DAVIS
A's vs. Blue Jays
Play: A's +155
I know the A's are nothing special at all and have lost the first two games of this series, but right now Estrada isn't better than Blackburn.
Estrada has failed to pitch a quality starts his last three games and has recorded a terrible 10.38 ERA in those starts. He is also 0-2 against the A's in his career with a 8.38 ERA.
Blackburn has only made 4 starts this season, but has a 2.88 ERA during those showing he is more than a capable starter especially at this big of underdog.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Angels vs. Indians
Play: Indians -1½
The Indians have looked great recently, and I think they’ll continue to play well. The Tribe has won seven of their last eight games in Cleveland. Carlos Carrasco has been phenomenal against the Angels over the past few years. Carrasco has faced the Angels four times in the last three seasons. He has a terrific 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. LA’s lineup has hit just .162 against Carrasco in those games.
Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Seattle Mariners, over the struggling Boston Red Sox.
Don't worry about listing pitchers in this one, as the M's will take advantage of what appears to be a tired Sox squad.
Yesterday we were in a dangerous situation, with this same free play, but got there with an extra innings game.
But Seattle had a chance to get back to the .500 mark, and that was also added motivation. Now it will shock the Sox as a big dog.
Take the M's as my comp play.
3* MARINERS
Rob Vinciletti
Astros vs. Phillies
Play: Astros -118
The Astros continue to kill it on the road as they average over 7 runs per game on the season and they are in a solid spot tonight as they are 10-as a road favorite off a 5+ road win vs a team that scored 2 or less runs dating back to 2009. They have won 9 straight vs N.L. Teams and are 9-0 as a road favorite when Fiers is on the mound. We get solid line value here as the Phillies have their Ace A. Nola going. Nola is 1-5 as a home dog and the Phillies are on a 1-9 home dog run and have lost 12 of 15 on hump day. The Astros have scored 5+ runs in 13 of 16 road game. Look for the Astros to take another from the Phils.
Micah Roberts
Brewers at Nationals
Play: Under 9
For whatever reason, the Nationals don't feel like scoring when Gio Gonzalez pitches lately. He's pitched extremely well, but they've won only once in his last five starts. All five of those starts stayed Under. Jimmy Nelson has been effective with Milwaukee staying Under in his last four.
Oskeim Sports
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Boston southpaw Chris Sale has distinguished himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, going 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 20 starts. Sale is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the road and 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in afternoon affairs.
The 28-year-old also boasts elite peripherals: 1.96 FIP, 2.64 xFIP and a 2.51 SIERA, together with remarkable strikeout (12.74 K/9) and walk (1.66 BB/9) rates.
Sale is 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in seven career starts against the Mariners, while the Red Sox are 11-4 in Sale's last fifteen starts, 5-2 in his last seven road outings and 8-2 in his last ten starts with four days of rest.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are a money-burning 5-12 in their last seventeen home tilts, 3-8 in their last eleven home affairs versus .501 or greater opposition and 1-7 in their last eight contests after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.
Buster Sports
Twins vs. Dodgers
Play: Twins +160
The Minnesota Twins play the final game of their 3 game series tonight against the best team in baseball in the LA Dodgers. The starting pitchers for tonights game are for the Twins RH Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.26 ERA) and he will face the Dodgers RH Brock Stewart (0-0, 0.00) Santana has been his steady self this year and has 11 wins for the Twins. He has pitched really well on the road with a 2.28 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.096 in 9 starts. The Dodgers will bring Stewart out of the bullpen for a start and he has been almost unhittable this year. He has pitched 13 innings out of the pen this year and has allowed only 5 hits. As we know starting is a different animal and when Stewart started last year he went 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 5 starts. We are going to go with the underdog Twins tonight getting a nice plus 160, as this might be one of a very few spots where the Dodgers can get beat at home.
Bob Balfe
Nationals -140
The Nationals have been on a roll as of late while the Brewers have not. Washington is a better team from top to bottom. Both pitchers have been really good this year, but Gonzalez has been better. Washington should get the victory at home tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Twins at Dodgers
Pick: Twins
The Dodgers have recovered from that brief blip last week vs. the Braves to win four straight, stretching their current run to an eye-popping 36-6 over their past 42 games. But there are some clouds on the horizon due to starting rotation durability (or lack thereof) especially in light of Clayton Kershaw's back injury. Recent call-up Brock Stewart gets the start tonight and might not justify this kind of favorite's price, especially since Twins starter Erwin Santana has been mostly solid this season, with an 11-7 record and 3.26 ERA.
The Prop Specialists
Milwaukee vs. Washington
Pick: Over 1st 5
Based on our suite of Machine Learning algorithms, we have identified a 5* investment opportunity on the 1st 5 innings totals market in this game. Our rated run differential compared to the 4.5 run total for the 1st 5 innings of this game is 0.65 runs. This repesents a fair value price of -143 on the OVER and a 8.5% edge on the market's price of -112