DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT RED SOX
PLAY: TIGERS +105
There’s a pretty definite starting pitcher edge for the Tigers with star rookie Michael Fulmer going against Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
Fulmer should be the favorite here based on my work. He’ll still occasionally make a mistake that costs him, but his stuff is good enough so that even when he misses the target, he’s often able to get by regardless.
Rodriguez is showing signs of life after struggling badly returning from his leg injury. I don’t think he was at full strength, as he seemed to be having problems finishing his pitches. The Red Sox need innings from ERod with the status of the bullpen right now, and he has only gone seven innings once. Even that start was a bit misleading as it was one of those games where almost everything that got hit was right at someone.
Day/night splits for the two hurlers are small sample as neither has been around long. But Fulmer is 4-0, 1.85 under the sun while Rodriguez logs in at 3-5, 7.06. The Tigers have won the first two games in this series and while getting a sweep against Boston is obviously no cinch, especially at Fenway, I think the price is right to take the Tigers in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle +146
Way much of an overlay on Pittsburgh, which is not the same team it was last season. Ask Wednesday starter Gerrit Cole, as the Bucs are winless in his last five starts. After last night's 7-4 win, the Mariners are confident, and starter James Paxton has pitched better lately, especially in his last start on Friday at Toronto when allowing just one run on three hits in 7 IP of a 2-1 win.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. Royals
Play: Royals -121
KC has won 7 of 8 as a home favorite in this range. The Angels are a dismal 0-13 in the last game of a road series vs a starting pitcher that has a strike to ball ratio of higher than 2. LA has lost 5 of the last 7 as a road dog. They have Shoemaker on the hill and they have lost 7 of his 10 road starts as he has a 4.74 road era. Shoemaker has allowed a staggering 14 runs in 5 innings over 2 starts here in this park. He will oppose durable lefty Danny Duffy who has a a solid 3.17 era. KC has won 6 of his 7 home starts this season. Look for the Royals to take the finale.
Mike Lundin
St Louis at New York
Play: St Louis -131
The St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets split a doubleheader on Tuesday after Monday's opener of the three-game set rained out. I like the Cardinals in the rubber match.
Adam Wainwright (9-5, 4.09 ERA) takes the ball for St. Louis. He's earned three wins in his last four starts while surrendering just a total of three runs while striking out 27 through 29 innings. He tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets back in 2014 in the most recent meeting.
The Mets turn to Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.14). who is 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA as a starting pitcher this year and he has struggled to log innings lately. New York could need a lot of innings from the 26 year old after yesterday's demanding doubleheader.
Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 12-3 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
New York vs. Houston
Play: New York +116
Edges - Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka 9-2 last 11 team starts during July, including 4-0 the last four; and 4-1 as a dog and 4-1 team starts versus A.L. West this season. Astros: 4-10 as a host in this series; and McCullers just 5-6 last 11 overall home team starts. With the visiting team a perfect 3-0 in Tanaka’s career team starts in this series, and Tanaka sporting a 1.50 ERA away as opposed to a 4.30 ERA at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Pinstripes.
Bob Harvey
Mariners vs. Pirates
Play:Mariners +148
The Seattle Mariners look to continue their dominating interleague play when they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. At 10-3, the M’s own the Major’s best interleague record.
The Mariners (50-48, 25-25 road) took the series opener 7-4 for their fifth win in seven games. Kyle Seager belted his second homer in three games during his five games and is 7 for 19 with four RBI’s over that stretch.
While Seattle is closing the gap in the American League West, The Pirates (51-47, 28-22 home) failed to cut into the Cubs lead in the National League Central. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco have done their best to keep the Bucs afloat. Marte has five hits and four runs scored in his last three games while Polanco homered among his season-high four hits in Tuesday’s loss.
Paxton (3-4, 4.18 ERA) was outstanding in his last effort on Friday. The Canadian lefthander had nine strikeouts in seven innings in a 2-1 victory Toronto. Paxton has pitched well on the road, posting a 2-2 mark while his ERA (3.62) away from home is a bit more than a half-run better than his season average.
Cole (5-6, 2.99 ERA) rebounded from a dismal return from the disabled list to fluster the Phillies on Friday, allowing one run on six hits in as many innings en route to a hard-luck 4-0 setback. He’ll be making his 88th career start and first versus Seattle. He’s 1-3 despite posting a 2.89 ERA at home this season.
Jesse Schule
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -164
The Rangers have split the first two games of this home series versus Oakland, but they look good here in the rubber match Wednesday. Yu Darvish will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's undefeated at home so far. Darvish (2-2, 3.12 ERA) allowed two earned runs on seven hits, striking out 11 in six innings in a loss at Kansas City his last time out. He's totaled 27 strikeouts in his last 15 1/3 innings pitched (WOW). The Athletics hand the ball to Sean Manaea, who is winless on the road this season. Manaea (3-5, 4.61 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits in 4 1/3 innings in a no decision at home versus Texas earlier this season. He's 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA in four starts away from Oakland. The Rangers Joey Gallo hit a home run last night in his first game since being called up from Triple A. The 22 year old will try to fill a void left by the injuries to Shin Soo Choo and Prince Fielder.
Will Rogers
Cincinnati vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -1.5
After the Giants won 9-7 in a slugfest in San Francisco last night, I expect to see a pitcher's duel at AT&T Park Wednesday afternoon. The Giants are 30-18 at home this season, and they should add to that total this afternoon.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Madison Bumgarner will get the start for San Francisco, and the Giants ace is 5-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 11 home starts in 2016. His last start in San Francisco was a complete game, one hit shutout. He struck out a whopping 14 batters in that game.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Bumgarner is 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA in his last three starts versus the Reds. Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart are a combined 4-for-29 with seven strikeouts versus the Giants ace.
3. X-Factor - The Reds have lost 40 of their last 56 road games, and eight of their last 11 versus the Giants.
Jim Feist
Yankees at Astros
Pick: Under
The Yankees have a weak offense, on a 12-3-1 run under the total, including 7-0 under against a righty starter. Ace Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.00 ERA) is on a roll, with the team 7-3 under in his last 10 road start. Tanaka induced 11 swinging strikes his last start, and has now given up only four earned runs over the 24.1 innings encompassing his four July starts. Houston is 18-7 under the total against a winning team and 11-1 under when Lance McCullers starters at home. The Under is 16-5 in McCullers' last 21 starts overall and the Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Houston between these teams.
Sleepyj
Phillies / Marlins Under 8
I feel pretty good about this under here today...Early game for us to cash in with a winner...Miami's Conley has been dialed ion and hasn't given up more then 2 runs in his last 4 games..Miami is making a small push and he is part of the reason..He looks to be taking that step as a solid starter in this league...Limiting the Phillies isn't hard and if Conley is on we should expect another solid game here..Phils haven't seen him since early May and he pitched well in a win...That's a long layoff for a team to see a guy at home who has been hot...Phils will send out Zach Eflin...Another young hurler in the Phils system who has been solid as well...A high strikeout guy at times who the Marlins haven't seen yet...marlins may struggle here Vs. Eflin being that Miami hasn't been all that great Vs. RHP...Needing 9 runs seems rather tough here just looking at the pitching..Marlins Vs. RHP + Phils lineup sets up for an under call.
Matt Fargo
A's vs. Rangers
Play: A's +148
Oakland took the second game of this series last night with a 6-3 victory and it looks to win the series tonight before heading to Cleveland for a three-game set. It was the fourth win in five games for Oakland and it now sits just four games under .500 on the road which is pretty respectable when looking at some of the other road records in baseball. Texas still holds a 3.5-game lead over Houston in the American League West but it has been playing some below average baseball since late June. The Rangers are just 7-16 over their last 23 games and prior to this skid, they held a 10-game lead over Houston so they have fallen hard and quickly. They hope to get Yu Darvish back into the win column as they have dropped his last three starts no thanks to scoring just one run in each of those games. He has been pretty solid since his return but he is still unable to go deep into games as they are bringing him back slowly. This is not a great thing as the Rangers bullpen ERA of 4.85 is third worst in baseball. Going back, the Rangers are 0-4 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Oakland counters with Sean Manaea who is coming off two solid starts where he did not allow a run over 15 combined innings. This includes seven shutout innings at Houston, his best start on the road this season where Oakland has gone 0-4 in his four road outings. But Oakland is 4-0 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in its previous game.
ASA
Padres vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 10½
The Padres Luis Perdomo is off of a solid start but previously was rocked for 17 hits in less than 11 innings over his two prior starts. He has a 5.55 ERA on the season and the Blue Jays have won 6 of their last 8 games and are beginning to again swing the sticks with confidence. The Jays will have R.A. Dickey toeing the rubber in this one and he has been roughed up for 11 earned runs in his 9 innings of work since the All Star break. The knuckle-baller has given up 4 home runs in those two starts and now faces a Padres lineup that has produced at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is 6-3 in Perdomo's 9 starts this season and San Diego is 10-3 to the over in interleague action this season. We'll grab the over in this very early start Wednesday.
Jimmy Boyd
Reds/Giants Under 7
I really like the value here with UNDER in today's afternoon matchup between the Reds and Giants. San Francisco will send out their ace Madison Bumgarner, who owns a sensational 1.76 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 11 home starts. Bumgarner hasn't surrendered a run in each of his last two starts at home, including a complete game shutout in his most recent home start against the Diamondbacks.
Cincinnati will counter with the underrated Daniel Straily, who is going to come out with something to prove against one of the league's best starters. The Reds have won 10 of Straily's 18 starts, which is impressive given how bad they have been this season. Straily comes into this game in great form, posting a 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He also faired well in his lone start against the Giants this season, limiting them to just 3 runs in 6 1/3 innings at home.
UNDER is 4-1 in Straily's last 5 starts after throwing a quality start in his last appearance and 7-1 in Bumgarner's last 8 after a quality start in his last outing. UNDER is also a dominant 8-1 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts following a win.
Oskeim Sports
Rays at Dodgers
Pick: Under
Tampa Bay southpaw Matt Moore has thrown five consecutive quality starts and finally appears healthy after Tommy John surgery derailed his promise two years ago. Moore is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine day starts this season and has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 27 innings of work in July. Moore should remain hot against a Los Angeles lineup that is averaging just 3.5 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.297 OBP; .645 OPS) and 3.9 runs per game at home (.308 OBP; .682 OPS).
Los Angeles right-hander Brandon McCarthy also appears healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015. The veteran hurler toes the rubber with a 1.61 ERA, 2.33 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP over 4 starts this season, together with a 32.1% K% (10.48 K/9) and a 23.5% K-BB%. In his last full season (2014), McCarthy garnered a 3.55 FIP, 2.87 xFIP and a 3.00 SIERA in 200 IP, and I expect those peripherals to remain constant throughout the second half of 2016.
The UNDER is 37-15 in the Dodgers' last 52 home games, including 11-1 in their last 12 home games versus left-handed starters. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Rays' last nine games versus right-handed starters and 19-6-1 in their last 26 games following a loss.
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Seattle Mariners won 7-4 at Pittsburgh last night and are now a MLB-best 10-3 in interleague play this season. The Mariners look to complete a sweep of their two-game IL series with the Pirates tonight in Pittsburgh. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both 51-48 but while the Pirates are within 2 1/2 games of the NL’s second wild card spot (two teams are ahead of them), the Mariners are 4 1/2 games out in the AL’s wild card race with three teams ahead of them. Tonight’s pitching matchup features James Paxton (3-4, 4.18 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (5-6, 2.99 ERA).
Paxton has made 10 starts in 2016 with Seattle going 3-7 (minus-$527). Cole, who had a 2.60 ERA last year with 19 wins, has seen his ERA moderately rise so far in 2016 (to 2.99) but after 14 starts, he’s just 5-6 (team is 6-8 ). Cole spent more than a month on the DL and pitched poorly in his first start back (July 16), allowing FIVE runs in just four innings of a 6-0 loss at Washington. However, he rebounded from a that dismal effort last Friday vs the Phillies, allowing just ONE run on six hits in six innings but suffered a hard-luck 4-0 loss. Cole hasn’t won since May 20, going 0-3 with the Pirates going 1-5 in those six starts.
This marks Cole’s 88th career start but FIRST vs Seattle. Here’s the rub. Cole entered this season with a three-year record of 40-20, with Pittsburgh going 50-23 ($2,107) in his 73 starts. His ERA over that span was 3.07 but so far in 2016, his 2.99 ERA has allowed him to go just 5-6 (team is 6-8 ). I believe that will change down the stretch, as the Pirates look to earn a FOURTH straight wild card spot. My bet tonight says Cole’s turnaround starts right here.