Chase Diamond
Detroit at Boston
Play: Detroit
This game has the 53-48 Tigers and the 55-43 Red Sox. Normally I don't take the bait on a game that looks to easy but this one does. Michael Fulmer is the real deal 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA versus a pitcher who is 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA. Fulmer is a 23 year old stud pitcher and if you can get plus money in this game it's a gift. Fulmer is off a poor start last time out but with the Tigers only 5.5 back of the Indians I expect a big motivation to get this win today from both pitcher and team. Tigers are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Dave Essler
Cleveland -110
Maybe this seems to easy - the first thing I really like here is the comeback the Indians made last night and for a couple of reasons. First, it's a huge momentum builder for the Indians as well as a huge momentum killer for the Nationals. And because the Nats had the lead and were trying to close the game out, they had to use several of their key arms out of the pen. For the Indians pen - Cody Allen didn't throw a pitch, and they the day before off so if they need Shaw again he should be available. In Carrasco's last seven games the Indians are 6-1 and his WHIP is 0.87 which is not something you want to bet against, or at least I don't. Stasburg is what he is - but what surprised me is how many at bats most of the Indians have against him. It's not a ton - but it's a piece of the puzzle nonetheless. Strasburg now has to pitch with a DH so pitching around people is a bit more difficult, and Cleveland is 27-16 at home. The Indians are staying put after the game and in fact have tomorrow off. Washington travels from Cleveland to San Francisco after the game - I usually prefer home teams in day getaway games (see Dennis), with arguably Cleveland's' best starter - laying -110 just to win at home seems like the right thing to do?
Bryan Leonard
Atlanta at Minnesota
Play: Under 8.5
Two of the least powerful teams in baseball face each other today with two underrated starters on the hill. Mike Foltynewicz was highly touted and has ran into some injury problems in his young career. But he's now healthy and showing the promise of his younger days. Tyler Duffey looked really good for the Twins last year but he has struggled with inconsistencies this season. That said, both pitchers are better than public perception. With home runs from these two a relative rarity we will look for this contest to stay under the posted total.
Dwayne Bryant
Reds at Giants
Play: Under 7
Nothing needs to be said about Bumgarner, and Straily has tossed four Quality Starts in four July outings. Both bullpens are in good current form over their last five games. Home plate umpire Kerwin Danley shows an Under bias. Air Density Index (ADI) of 68 means the ball should not travel as well as normal in what is already a pitcher's park.
Carmine Bianco
Hapoel Be'er Sheva at OLYMPIAKOS
Play: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.5
Although almost all their matches over the past 18 months have been domestic league and domestic cup games with a few club friendlies tossed in, they've only lost 4 of approximately 50 matches in that time frame and only one of those losses was by more than a goal. They'll definitely be taking a hike up in class but will look to get a manageable result in Leg 1 and return home with a shot at advancing.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
Play: Detroit Tigers +107
Detroit's bats came alive last night, including the bottom of the order, in a 9-8 win at Boston. Jarrod Saltalamacchia had three hits and two RBIs as the Tigers banged out 13 hits. Michael Fulmer gets the call today and he gives the Tigers a good chance for a sweep as he's 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and Detroit has won 12 of his last 13 starts. Fulmer gave up five runs in a win at the White Sox on Friday, but in his 10 previous starts, he allowed a total of only six earned runs. Also, Fulmer is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in day games. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA and the Red Sox have lost four of his last five starts. The left-hander is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA at home and the Sox have lost all four of his home starts.
Kyle Hunter
Rockies / Orioles Under 9
Dylan Bundy was the number one rated prospect in the Baltimore organization coming into this year. Bundy has an extremely high upside. He flashed that potential last outing against Cleveland. He faces a free swinging Rockies team that isn't very good offensively on the road in this contest.
Jon Gray is a good pitcher who has a bunch of potential for the Rockies moving forward as well. Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last four games. Baltimore's offense is absolutely capable of scoring a bunch, but they have been in a funk of late. The Orioles haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games.
D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a very solid under guy. He'll give both pitchers the corners throughout in this one. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 14-0 in the Orioles last 14 games overall. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 vs. a right handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 following a loss. A 55-0 angle.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta +143
We were wrong as heck on Tuesday in this rematch of the 1991 World Series as the Braves shut down the Twins offense. This Wednesday pitching matchup does not suggest the Twins laying this sort of price as Tyler Duffey has labored since the All-Star break, allowing ten runs on 15 hits with four walks just 9 IP in two starts. Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has allowed three runs or fewer in 8 of his last ten starts.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -183
Tampa Bay is a terrible road team (19-33) and is 3,000 miles from home, ending a nine-game trip here. They look road weary, losing four in row and tallying a total of seven runs. Rays' lefty Matt Moore (6-7, 4.31 ERA) owns a 2-3 record and 5.37 ERA in 10 career interleague starts. Tampa Bay is on an 18-42 run, including 16-35 against a right-handed starter. The L.A. Dodgers are off a 3-2 win yesterday that keeps them 2.5 games behind first-place San Francisco in the NL West. Dodgers' righty Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 1.61 ERA) continues to impress, holding St. Louis to two runs (one earned) on one hit over 6+ innings Friday. He is 5-0 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts since joining the Dodgers last season. The Dodgers are on a 22-6 run at home, as well as 12-5 in interleague home games. Los Angeles is also 4-0 all-time in Dodger Stadium against the Rays, who have lost seven of 11 since the All-Star break.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Tigers/Red Sox Under 10.5
This is simply too many runs to not take a shot on the UNDER in today's matchup between the Tigers and Red Sox. Keep in mind that this is an early start time and these day games have a history of trending towards the UNDER. On top of that, we have two very capable starters on the mound. Detroit's Michael Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez struggled early when he joined the rotation, but has been much much better of late. In his last two starts he's allowed just 3 runs over 12 1/3 innings of work. UNDER is 5-0 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 in the Tigers last 21 games overall.
STEVE JANUS
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -135
Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, in July games. This system is 56-23 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
RAY MONOHAN
Los Angeles / Kansas City Over 8
The Angels and Royals get set for battle on Wednesday and the Over here has some value.
Matt Shoemaker takes the ball for the Angels and his past against the Royals has not been pleasant. Shoemaker has gone 0-2 with an ERA of 13.50. In just 10.2 innings of work, the Royals sit with a .464 batting average.
On the other side of things, Duffy has compiled a 4 plus ERA when it comes to facing the Angels. Mike Trout has a small sample size of success, going 3 for 6 with a homer.
Some trends to consider. Over is 9-2 in Royals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1-2 in Angels last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Both starting pitchers haven't had much success against the opposition. Given that, expect a lot of run scoring opportunities here.
BRANDON LEE
Cubs -1.5
The Cubs were just swept by the White Sox on the south side. The series now shifts to the north side, where the Cubs are 31-16 at home this season. I'm not about to lay the -200 juice on the Cubs here, but I love the value with them on the -1.5 run line. The Cubs will have a massive edge on the mound with Jason Hammel squaring off against Anthony Ranaudo. The only reason Ranaudo is starting here is because of the Sale suspension and I just don't think he's equipped to shutdown this potent Cubs offense that is poised to explode at any moment. Cubs are 20-9 in their last 29 home games against a team with a losing record, while White Sox are 5-16 in their last 21 road games against a right-handed starter.
TONY GEORGE
Cardinals -125
A split yesterday between these two teams, both with 53 wins, but I will lean Wainwright tonight for the Cards with run support to get over on the Mets in the rubber match. Wainwright has had 4 very strong outings and getting back to “Ace” status for the Cardinals. I am going to ride him here with a short number. In his last 3 starts he has won all 3 and had an ERA of 1.26 in those outings.
Verrett has not had a win as a starter for the Mets since April 26 and I am not sold on him against the Cards, who have some bats, and with the Mets offense shaky at best, it is Wainwright who is hot and the vastly better starter that will have run support.
JACK JONES
Kansas City Royals -109
The Kansas City Royals have lost four straight, including an embarrassing 13-0 shutout loss to the Angels last night. It's safe to say that they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid and avoid the series sweep.
Ace Danny Duffy will take the ball for the Royals. The left-hander is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Over his past 36 innings pitched, Duffy has struck out 34 and walked only four. His 8.50 K/BB ratio since June 27 ranks the best in the American League.
Matt Shoemaker is 5-10 with a 3.99 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 10 road starts. Shoemaker has never beaten the Royals, going 0-2 (0-4 money line) with an 8.64 ERA and 2.160 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Duffy is a perfect 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite this season. The Angels are 1-5 in Shoemaker's last six road starts. The Royals are 5-0 in Duffy's last five starts overall. Kansas City is 26-9 in Duffy's last 35 home starts.