DAVE PRICE
St. Louis Cardinals -121
The St. Louis Cardinals have the clear advantage on the mound over the New York Mets tonight. Adam Wainwright leads the majors with a 0.93 ERA this month, allowing just 3 runs in 29 innings pitched. He also has not allowed a home run in his past 60 2/3 innings, a span that stretches all the way back to May 28. Wainwright is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 2 starts against New York, pitching 14 shutout innings while allowing only 10 base runners. Logan Verrett is 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in 8 starts this year for the Mets. The Cardinals are 40-17 in Wainwright's last 57 starts. The Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. New York is 1-5 in Verrett's last 6 starts.
TEDDY COVERS
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -138
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Arizona is a hot mess right now. The D-backs spent a small fortune this past offseason, expecting to be contenders in 2016. Instead, they started off poorly, never got hot and are now thinking about dumping salary before the trading deadline. As late as June 24th, this team was 36-40, looking to make a move up in the standings. They’ve gone 5-19 since, including losses in six of their last seven contests.
Arizona’s mediocre (at best!) bullpen is spent . None of their last seven games has seen the starting pitcher finish the sixth inning. The pen imploded again last night, turning a 4-4 game in the 8th inning into a particularly demoralizing 9-4 defeat. That’s particularly bad news with Avery Bradley on the hill tonight – he’s no innings eater. And their lineup has gone cold, producing only nine runs in their four losses on this current road trip.
The non-descript Brewers are a team that nobody has paid attention to all year; a complete afterthought in the MLB betting world. But Milwaukee is swinging hot bats right now, pounding out five runs or more in more than half of their games since the All Star Break, including each of their last four on this homestand.
Starter Jimmy Nelson has been the Brewers best pitcher this year, allowing two earned runs or less in 15 of his 20 previous starts. Expect another strong showing tonight, especially after a throwing error on a simple grounder to the mound cost him to lose his last start. Manager Craig Counsell: “Defensively, he kind of made a couple of mistakes that hurt him. But I thought his stuff was good." The price here is perfectly reasonable to back Milwaukee in a game they should win with relative ease.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +138 over PITTSBURGH
Gerrit Cole has made two starts since coming off the DL and the Pirates are 0-2 in those games. Cole had a WHIP of 1.60 in those two starts to go along with a 4.50 ERA. We’re not going to put a lot of weight on his last start against the Phillies, in which he struck out seven batters in six innings, because Philadelphia swings at everything and many balls were hit hard. Cole’s K-rate and swing and miss rate have both fallen to worse than league average this season for the first time in his career. Cole is still bringing 94 MPH heat but his pitches lack life. His swing and miss rate against St. Louis two starts back was only 5% and his batted ball profile on the year (38%/30%32% - GB/LD/FB) isn’t very impressive either. Cole has a 2.99/4.11 ERA/xERA split. Truth is, Gerrit Cole is not having a great year and neither are the Pirates. Cole does have the ability to dominate and it may be just a matter of time before he gets back into his potential Cy Young form. For now, however, Cole pitches for a team that is losing a lot more games than they’re winning recently and that often gets dominated by the opposing pitcher.
Enter southpaw James Paxton, who is quickly becoming one of MLB’s most dominating starters. Paxton has struggled to make an impact since his recall from Triple-A (4.18 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) but that only works in our favour in terms of the take-back on him here. There are many reasons to view Paxton as an elite target. His raw stuff has improved; he has a high-90s fastball and averages 97 MPH on the gun. Paxton carries an assortment of strikeout pitches. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 19%. He also keeps the ball on the ground (50%) at a high rate. A 40% hit rate has been the main reason for his average surface stats so the window to buy low on Paxton likely will close soon. Don’t miss it.
L.A Angels +101 over KANSAS CITY
Danny Duffy has good skills and usually gives the Royals a chance to win. However, what he doesn’t have is a good history of durability or consistency. Duffy may be on the rise but he’s only started 13 games this year while working out of the pen for 16 others. His high strikeout rate is legit but working out of the pen will increase one’s K’s/9 every time. That said, this one is not about fading Duffy. It’s more about taking back a tag with the Halos/Shoemaker combination.
We’re going to stick with the hot hand here. The Angels made quick and easy work of the Royals last night in a 13-0 victory for their eighth win in their past 11 games. Matt Shoemaker is quite capable of throwing a gem or at the very least giving the Halos another quality start or a chance to win. Shoemaker owns a 3.99 ERA after 19 starts, but his skills so far in 2016 have been excellent with 9.3 K’s/9 and 1.9 BB’s/9. His command sub-indicators are also elite: 13.5% swing and miss rate, 69% first-pitch strike rate, and 34% balls thrown. Shoemaker has a variety of pitches he’ll throw at any time in the count and is doing a masterful job of keeping hitters off balance. He’ll now face a K.C. team that has dropped four in a row, seven of eight and that has scored 17 runs over those eight games.
Atlanta +150 over MINNESOTA
Tyler Duffey may indeed throw a good game here and the Twinkies may indeed beat the Braves but that is of no concern to us whatsoever. What we know for sure is that we’re getting the superior pitcher plus a significant tag and that prompts us to step in immediately.
Mike Foltynewicz has been a prospect for a long time because of his big and powerful fastball. Like many pitchers known mostly for big and powerful fastballs, Foltynewicz has a history of throwing an insufficient number of strikes. He was a part of the Astros’ trade for Evan Gattis, and back then, it was unclear whether Foltynewicz would be a starter or a reliever. He’s been with the Braves now for a year and a half. Before that, in the upper levels with the Astros, Foltynewicz threw a below-average rate of strikes while ahead in the count. As a Brave, Foltynewicz has moved forward, and he’s done so this year in a big way. How big? Well, he’s thrown a greater rate of pitches while ahead in the count than anybody else, given the same role, and when you do that you give yourself a hell of an advantage. Foltynewicz keeps hitters on the defensive, and he’s doing this as a starter, a starter who the other day lasted 107 pitches. This isn’t the guy the Astros traded. This is a guy that guy could’ve become, but usually, pitchers stop short of developing this successfully.
Foltynewicz has 27 K’s in his last 28 frames. His swing and rate over his last six starts was 12%. Foltynewicz’s 13% line-drive rate since mid-June is the lowest among starters with five or more starts over that span. Batters are having trouble squaring up on him. It’s not like he’s an ace now. There’s polishing yet to be done, as Foltynewicz looks to get hitters to more often expand their zones. As has been the case for a while, he could stand to improve the secondary stuff but just look at where things are now. Foltynewicz is a 24-year-old who can buzz triple digits, and he’s now frequently getting ahead in the count. More than ever before, Mike Foltynewicz is looking like he’s in command. The Braves have been collecting big arms with big risks. Here’s one that’s working out. Of course the Braves can win here.
Power Sports
Angels vs. Royals
Pick: Royals
While its true that Los Angeles is underperforming its YTD run differential at the same time Kansas City is overperforming its own (which would normally have me looking to bet the Angels), the fact that the Royals were humiliated last night here at Kauffman Stadium has me looking for the home team to bounce back in a major way tonight. For most of this year, the reigning World Series Champs have been an excellent bet here at home and they have their top starter going tonight as well.
Home teams don't take too kindly to being humiliated in the fashion the Royals were last night. It was a 13-0 loss, although it should be noted that seven of the runs were scored in the top of the ninth when 13 Angels came up to hit. KC is 4-2 this season after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. All of a sudden, they've dropped six out of seven here at home, but I think it's critical to note that prior to that, their record at Kauffman Stadium was 30-13. This is a good opportunity to "buy low" on them.
Making the Royals an even better value is the fact they send Danny Duffy to the bump. In 13 starts this year, he has a 3.17 ERA and 1.017 WHIP. The team has won 10 of the 13 times he's taken the mound, including six of seven here at home and five straight overall. There have been just two starts where Duffy allowed more than three runs. He faces off w/ Matt Shoemaker, who I went against his last time out and won w/ Houston. Admittedly, Shoemaker has been pretty good lately, but as I mentioned in my analysis for his last start, his road results leave a lot to be desired as he has a 3-7 TSR w/ a 4.74 ERA.
Big Al
Angels vs. Royals
Pick: Royals
LHP Danny Duffy goes to the mound for his 14th start of the season for the Royals tonight (he also has 16 relief appearances). Duffy posted another strong outing in his last start against the Rangers, giving up one run and four hits through 6 2/3 innings while winning his sixth game of the year (vs. just one loss). The Royals have now won each of Duffy's last five outings and are 10-3 with him as a starter this season. He has lowered his ERA to 3.14 and his WHIP to 1.05. But the most impressive improvement for Duffy this season has been his strikeouts vs. walks. His K:BB ratio the last three seasons has been 1.57, 2.13, and 1.97. But this season, Duffy has raised that number to an astounding 5.25. That's what happens when you drop your walk rate in half (3.5 to 1.9) and raise your strikeout rate from 6.7 to 10.0. After going 16-4 in 2014 and just missing the AL Rookie of the Year, RH Matt Shoemaker won just seven of 24 starts last season, and is just 5-10 in 19 starts so far in 2016. It's not all his fault, as the Angels have not supported him much this season, and that certainly will not help his confidence. The Royals are 26-9 in Duffy's last 35 home starts.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals -130
Adam Wainwright is in his zone and this bullpen is great on the road. The Mets Logan Verrett is just not the pitcher to be able to hang with this Cardinals power lineup. This guy gives up too many walks and it will cost him with one swing of the bat.