Free Picks for Wednesday, July 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
RED SOX AT RANGERS
PLAY: RANGERS -108
I’m clearly not a blind system player, but that’s precisely what I’ll be doing with this game.
There has been only one instance the entire season where one team has swept another in two series. The other 35 series sweep rematches have seen the vanquished team win at least one game in the return match.
The Texas Rangers will be the second team to suffer that fate if they’re unable to top the Red Sox tonight. I’m going to go the blind play route and take Texas.
There’s certainly a good case to be made for the Red Sox if one is just looking a the game on its own. The Bosox are very hot right now, and it’s not like Andrew Cashner would be anyone’s first choice to slow them down here. But at the same time, it’s not as though shopworn Doug Fister is likely to dominate too many opponents either. In other words, on a hot and humid evening in a ballpark that can be very favorable to offenses, we might see a good deal of scoring tonight. That’s obviously in the Total, with the current O/U at 11 with the Over juiced.
Bottom line is if you’re looking for me to provide substantive reasons aside from the sweep revenge system to back Texas, I don’t have any. That said, I’ll be taking the Rangers tonight to salvage the series finale and avoid a second straight sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.
RAY MONOHAN
Boston / Texas Over 11
Two offenses that can lineup the scoreboard make this a solid free play. Both these offenses are putting up 5 runs per game and getting to play in a hitters ballpark tonight makes this a nice move. Andrew Cashner is also another big reason for this move. He's been a struggle all year and has battled injuries this season. He returned from the DL and got rocked by the Indians and after getting hit with a bat, he likely isn't 100%.
Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Texas. This two teams play to the Over head to head and with the matchup here, this is a nice move.
CAPPERS CLUB
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Play: Marlins +131
Miami is worthy of a chance here at this price.
St. Louis just hasn't been a dependable team this season and laying this kind of juice on them is over the top.
The Cards are an under .500 ball club and have flirted with the .500 at home this season.
Miami sends out Volquez, who despite a 4-8 record, still holds a solid ERA. He's been a reliable pitcher for the Marlins, getting deep into games and giving them chances to win.
Some trends to note. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Lets take a shot on the Marlins, as this matchup is a battle of two similar pitchers.
SEAN MURPHY
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.
We're dealing with a favorable total here as despite their successes, both of tonight's starting pitchers have been lights out well below the radar this season.
Zack Godley has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five road starts this season. He's coming off back-to-back outings that saw him work seven strong innings. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-4 in Godley's 10 starts this season.
Alex Wood remains undefeated on the season at a perfect 9-0 with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. In 39 1/3 innings pitched here at home that WHIP drops to 0.86. Wood has given up exactly one earned run in each of his last three trips to the hill, with the 'under' going 2-1.
This has actually been a high-scoring series so far this season but I expect a different story to unfold at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday night.
JESSE SCHULE
White Sox vs. A's
Play: A's -175
Oakland has split the first two games of this home series versus Chicago, but I like the A's in the rubber match with their ace on the mound Wednesday. Sonny Gray will toe the slab for the A's, and he's coming off a solid outing. Gray (3-4, 4.09 ERA) allowed one run on two hits over eight innings in a 3-1 home loss to Atlanta his last time out. His previous start was a win at Chicago, allowing a pair of runs on four hits, striking out seven in seven innings. He's 2-0 with a 2.27 ERA in five starts in day games in 2017. The White Sox hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey, who allowed three runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings in a 3-0 home loss to Oakland earlier this season. Pelfrey was 0-2 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Athletics last season. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league, batting just .249 versus right-handed pitching. The White Sox have lost 21 of their last 30 away from Chicago.
VIC DUKE
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +121
Hard to not go with Vargas. He's been electric this season and the KC bats are now awakening. KC is 20-6 in Vargas' last 26 starts. Royals have won 9 of their last 12 on the road. Seattle's Miranda has been a strong home pitcher but not crazy about taking on the Mariners which dropped their last 5 at home. We'll grab Vargas who sports a strong 1.70 ERA against the Mariners.
BEN BURNS
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a classic “pitchers duel” on our hands in this one. Zack Godley (3-2, 2.67 ERA) enters off a tough setback against St. Louis on Wednesday, giving up three runs off two hits while also striking out seven over seven innings (note that Godley has been particularly effective on the road this year as well with a 2.84 ERA.) Alex Wood (9-0, 1.83) continues to dominate, most recently allowing one run off two hits and three walks over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Friday, also going on to strike out eight. To go along with his stellar 1.83 ERA, Wood also sports a tiny 0.95 WHIP and has 83 K’s spanning 68.1 frames of work (is 6-0 with a 1.83 ERA in front of the home town crowd.)
HANDICAPPERS HUB
Padres vs. Indians
Play: Padres +220
Way too high of a number for Bauer here tonight in Cleveland as he is coming in 7-6 with a 5.24 ERA on the season and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime against the Padres! Meanwhile, Perdomo is plitching pretty well of late, going 2-1 with a a 3.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. Look for the Padres bats to get to Bauer early and San Diego to hold on tonight for the big upset!
JIMMY BOYD
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Royals +120
Kansas City has really been playing well of late. The Royals are 17-6 over their last 23 games and have taken each of the first two in the series here against Seattle. I like KC's chances of finishing off the sweep with their ace and legit Cy Young candidate Jason Vargas on the mound. Vargas is 12-3 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.115 WHIP in 16 starts. Only Scherzer and Kershaw have a better ERA on the season for qualifying starters. Consistency has been the name of the game for Vargas, who has allowed more than 3 earned runs once all season. Seattle's offense is slumping and the Mariners are just 2-7 in their last 9. Good chance Vargas keeps them in check.
Seattle sends out a decent starter here in Ariel Miranda, but the Royals are red-hot at the plate right now. Kansas City put up 7 with King Felix starting for the Mariners yesterday. The fifth time in the last six games they scored 5 or more runs. I'll take my chances the Royals do enough here for the win.
MIKE ANTHONY
Tampa Bay vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -153
Many teams want that big time, HR smasher, and there is no question that this Chicago team has a big bat in the center of the lineup with Anthony Rizzo. And adding that power at the plate, creates even more problems for pitchers to handle. Chicago at home have been very good - Tampa Bay will struggle to get anything done. Tampa Bay will not fit in with the swing of things, until they get some semblance of a defensive lineup. The Rays also need more contact and basic on-base hitters, and their guys will just not do. Tampa Bay has a terrible issue in the field - and their biggest weakness has been there up the middle fielding - and has been even worse over the last few games. Chicago Cubs win this one on Wednesday afternoon.
TJ MASTERLINE
San Francisco vs. Detroit
Play:San Francisco +165
As both of these teams have had terrible starts based on their current year to year standards, the bottom line is they both are not very good this year. In this game, we get a better pitcher and team that has shown a little promise lately, going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Love the +165!! Road team is 4-1 in Gucciones last 5 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. San Francisco. Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Guccione behind home plate. Giants are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 overall. Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass. Tigers are 5-11 in their last 16 overall. Tigers are 5-11 in their last 16 games on grass. Tigers are 7-16 in their last 23 games following a win. Tigers are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. National League West. Tigers are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games. Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. Tigers are 2-5 in Norris' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 2-6 in Norris' last 8 home starts. Tigers are 1-5 in Norris' last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
ROB VINCILETTI
San Francisco vs. Detroit
Play: Detroit -165
Detroit snapped the SF. 6 game win streak last night and to night they fit a solid 27-6 database system that plays on home teams with a total of 10 or higher that won by 2+ runs as a -200 or higher home favorite while scoring 5+ runs and plating error free ball, vs a team like SF that scored 4 or les in a road dog loss. SF has lost 21 of 31 vs losing teams and the Tigers have won 6 of 8 at home if the total is 10 to 10.5. The Pitching stats between Blach for SF and Norris for Detroit are similar. However we will back the home team with the system in their favor.
Jim Feist
Miami at St. Louis
Pick: Under
Miami is #20 in runs scored and 9-4 under the total when Edinson Volquez starts. he has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last six starts and for the season batters are hitting .228 off him. St. Louis is ranked #18 in runs scored. Mike Leake continues to have a great season, with batters hitting .238 off him. And the team is 15-5-1 under the total when he starts.
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta @ Dallas
Pick: Atlanta +5
Atlanta is in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, but only 2 1/2 games out of first and it comes off an 81-72 win over New York on Sunday. Brittney Sykes led the Dream with 19 points and nine rebounds against the Liberty and Layshia Clarendon added 15 points. The Dream has won and covered the last four meetings and six of the last seven. Dallas snapped a four-game winning streak with an 89-69 loss at home to Seattle on Saturday. The Wings shot only 35.3 percent, including just 1-for-17 from three-point range. Glory Johnson led the Wings with 18 points and 10 rebounds. The Wings are also just 1-4 ATS their last five home games.