ALEX SMART
Mets at Nationals
Play: Mets -107
The Nationals starter right-hander Tanner Roark (6-6, 5.27 ERA), has struggled this season, and looks like fade material against the NY Mets. Meanwhile, the Mets starter today In his last four starts, deGrom went 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA while holding opponents to an average of .139 BA.The top tier hurler is one of the most consistent starters in baseball and has allowed one run or fewer in 42 of his first 92 major league starts. Needless to say, with him on the mound today the Mets have the edge.Washington batters are hitting 31-for-143 (.217) against deGrom. NY METS are 13-5 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season/ WASHINGTON is 3-8 L/11 against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Mets have lost the first two games of this series, but with DeGrom on the hill and a capable offense, on their sides the Mets salvage crew I'm betting will be golden. MLB teams like the Nationals - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games are just 14-33 L/47. MLB Road teams like the Mets - starting a pitcher who walked 1 or lesshitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing are 38-18 L/56 opportunities for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.
Stephen Nover
San Francisco at Detroit
Play: San Francisco
I'll take the Giants at this price. San Francisco is playing much better winning six of its last seven. The Giants' power - dormant all season - has finally started to emerge. Veterans Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford are showing signs of coming around.
Tigers starter Daniel Norris has looked terrible in his past two starts giving up 10 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on 13 hits, four walks and three homers.
Detroit is 2-6 in Norris' last eight home starts. The Giants have underachieved all season, but the Tigers aren't playing well losing 11 of their last 16.
Ty Blach pitched well when he first entered San Francisco's rotation. Then he went through a slump. The buy sign is back on Blach after his last start where he held the Rockies to one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 victory last Wednesday. The Tigers have never faced Blach.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
San Francisco vs. Detroit
Play: San Francisco
Fantastic line value here when you consider the Giants had won 6 straight games prior to yesterday's loss. Also, Ty Blach's numbers over his last 3 starts are ugly but the numbers were skewed by 1 bad start. The San Francisco left-hander allowed a combined 4 earned runs in 13 innings in the other two starts. Also, Blach's overall poor numbers on the road this season were certainly impacted by 2 bad outings. The fact is that if you look at Blach's last 4 road starts, 3 of the 4 were quality road outings. In those 3 starts he allowed only 6 earned runs in 22 and 2/3 innings! He's capable of frustrating a Tigers lineup that continues to battle inconsistency at the plate in recent weeks. Detroit will have Daniel Norris on the mound and the Tigers are only 2-5 in his home starts this season as Norris has compiled a 5.73 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his home outings. Also, Norris has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. The simple fact is that Detroit is priced way too high here as they could very easily get upset in this one and drop to 2-6 in Norris home starts on the year! Grab the hotter team at the very generous price in this one. Free Pick on San Francisco Giants on the money line early Wednesday evening.
BRANDON LEE
White Sox vs. A's
Play: Under 9
Oakland is giving the rock to Sonny Gray, who is arguably throwing the best he has all season. After allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings against these White Sox, he held the Braves to to a mere 1 run on 2 hits in 8 innings in his most recent start. A lot of incentive for Gray to pitch well, as he's likely to get traded to a contender. The numbers aren't great for Chicago's Mike Pelfrey, but he's thrown the ball well on the road, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 6 road starts. You also have to factor in the A's are one of the weaker offenses in the big leagues and come in hitting an atrocious .178 as a team over their last 7 games.
DARRYL TUCHOLSKI
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Diamondbacks +187
Alex Wood's masterful season is the reason this line is so huge, The dbacks sit at 52-32. Zack Godley has allowed 3 ER or less in his last 10 starts himself. The Dodgers are 34-11 at home, I get it. But bank on the upset tonight
LARRY WALLACE
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets -107
DeGrom this year is 8-3 with a 3.55 ERA. He has 2.95 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals. Roark is 6-6 with a 5.27 ERA this year. Roark is on 4 consecutive losses. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games with DeGrom on the mound. Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games with Roark on the mound.
JOHN MARTIN
Mets vs. Nationals
Play: Mets -110
We're getting the more motivated team here as the Mets look to avoid the sweep Wednesday against the Nationals. We're also getting the better starter in Jacob DeGrom over Tanner Roark. DeGrom has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past month. He has gone 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last four starts while holding opponents to an average of .139. DeGrom has allowed one run or fewer in 42 of his first 92 major league starts. He is also 4-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts against the Nationals. Tanner Roark is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in his last three starts to fall fo 6-6 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts this season.
DAVE PRICE
Astros/Braves Over 9.5
The Houston Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball. They are hitting .293 and scoring 6.8 runs per game on the road this season after hanging a 16-spot on the Braves yesterday. And the Braves have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball at 4.6 runs per game, and they should be better moving forward now that their best hitter in Freddie Freeman has returned from injury. Freeman is playing 3rd base now so that the Braves can get Matt Adams' great bat in the lineup at 1st base. Two struggling starters are in line to get rocked today. Joe Musgrove is 0-3 with a 10.28 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Jamie Garcia is 0-1 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Garcia is also 3-7 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 lifetime starts vs. Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +192 over Los Angeles
The Alex Wood/Los Angeles Dodgers combo is perhaps the most hyped up one in MLB right now. The Dodgers are terrorizing opposing pitchers while Wood is 9-0 with a 1.83 ERA. Everything about Wood is legit but he has not thrown over 100 pitches all season and therefore he’s on a limited pitch count. That takes him through six innings usually and then he’ll hand it over to the ‘pen. Perhaps this is another easy victory for the Dodgers but throughout history, even the very best starters rarely win six or seven games in a row, let alone nine or 10. You will pay a hefty price to back the Dodgers/Wood combo and we warn you not to get caught up in it. Furthermore, this one could easily be tied or the D-Backs could have the lead when the ‘pens take over because Zack Godley has been just as good as almost any pitcher in the game and a pitcher of his quality is always worth a bet at this price.
It took 118 years before the first “Zack G.” graced Major League Baseball. We all know about Zack Greinke. He’s good at pitching and has admirably represented Zack G.’s everywhere. However, now there’s a new Zack G. stealing some shine and he just so happens to share a rotation with Greinke. If getting groundballs is divine, Zack Godley has been downright heavenly this season and has emerged as a key member of the Diamondbacks rotation. Through 10 starts the former Tennessee Volunteer has been lights out, en route to a sparkling 2.67 ERA, which is a team best. He even has managed to strike out a few more guys, fanning nearly a batter per inning while riding a 14% swinging-strike rate, 10th best in baseball for pitchers logging at least 50 innings. His .205 BAA against ranks fifth best in the league, behind only Dallas Keuchel, Max Scherzer, Alex Wood and Chris Sale. In the words of baseball fan and comic Larry David: Prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay good.
So, what happened? How did he do it? Can he keep it up? It appears Godley has made significant changes to his pitch mix and zone profile. His reliance on a cutter has decreased each season, and the 21.2 percent usage rate in 2017 is down over 20 percentage points from his 2016 profile. Instead, Godley has leaned on his curveball, a pitch that he throws about 29% of the time and gets nearly 25% whiffs, along with the crown jewel of his new and improved arsenal, the sinker. A year ago, Godley threw the pitch in nearly a quarter of his offerings. This season he has increased that number to over 37%, and has been rewarded with ground balls in nearly 70% of batted balls. The increased sinker usage also has helped Godley keep the ball in the yard. The pitch has yielded a 0.64 percent home run rate this season, helping him to fend off the growing trend of long balls in the game. While his 0.6 homers per nine innings seems hilariously low, it comes with a 12.9 percent HR/FB, which isn’t very far from his previous career levels. Godley even has fared better against left-handed hitting this season, again increasing sinker usage at the expense of his cutter. The results have been impressive, as he has limited lefties to a line of .205/.277/.353 in 25.2 innings. Godley’s start is legit. The elite ground-ball (59%) and swinging -strike rates make for a deadly combination that provide a solid baseline. There’s a lot to like here with Zack G, especially when taking back nearly 2-1.
Cincinnati -1½ +230 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
15-18 + 30.65 units
San Francisco +160 over DETROIT
We started fading Ty Blach very early this year but that’s when the Giants were perceived as a decent team and therefore Blach was overvalued. With a 33-52 record, the Giants are now greatly undervalued and that makes us interested buyers. Blach is not going to dazzle and he could easily get whacked here but that’s not our concern. What we know for sure is that the Giants are not as bad as their record suggests and even if they play .500 or slightly below for the remainder of the year, there are some great profits to be had in backing them in certain spots. An improving Giants offense that has posted an OPS well north of .800 over their last 13 games is very worthy of taking back a tag like this against the Tigers with Daniel Norris starting and that awful ‘pen behind him.
Norris comes in with an ERA/xERA split of 5.00/5.89. He also brings an unsightly WHIP of 1.62 into this start. You put that many runners on base and crooked innings are bound to happen. Norris has been a physical mess since his September 2014 debut. He’s had off-season surgery for thyroid cancer, a fractured back and an oblique strain among other ailments. A 54% first-pitch strike rate has led to walking 35 batters in 81 frames. Norris’ groundball rate is trending wrong too, as it’s down to 30% over his last five starts. Norris has not pitched more than 69 innings in a MLB season before and he’s now up to 81 this year. He has not shown the durability or consistent skills to trust him at this price at this point of the season. The Tigers favored by this much here is really about the riskiest bet one could make today. Norris and the Tigers -180 or thereabouts? Really? Of course, we’ll bite.
SPORTS WAGERS
The Greenbrier Classic
The countdown to the British Open is on but we still have a pair of tournaments to go before then and first up is the welcome return of the Greenbrier Classic. Cancelled in 2016 due to severe flooding which caused widespread damage and devastation in the area, host course The Old White TPC has been patched up and restored to its former glory. The result is a strong test of ball striking at 7,287 yards (Par 70), with generous fairways and larger than average Bentgrass greens. The early weather forecasts suggest there is plenty of rain around in West Virginia this week. How that will manifest itself – and when – is anybody’s guess – but we are keeping our eyes peeled to the forecasts to see if any early or late draw advantages are likely.
The reigning champion from 2015 is Danny Lee. The conclusions drawn from The Old White TPC last time out is that tee game is mostly irrelevant and it’s been that way for years. Of the 12 players who finished T6 or better in 2015, only two gained +0.750 strokes on the field off the peg. Clearly the second phase of holes is, yet again, most important. Eight of the first 10 players home gained at least one stroke on the field from tee-to-green, as you might expect, and there were plenty of good numbers made on approach too with most of the top gaining on the field with their short irons and wedges. Given the myriad of Par 70s of late in warm and humid conditions, you would argue that current form is perhaps the best guide this week and the transfer from the Quicken Loans to here should not be too much of a problem. Similar yardages, Bentgrass greens, both Par 70...really, it might just be the weather that is the differentiating factor. So take a look at any of the recent events for guidance, especially strokes gained: tee to green stats, and as far as correlating tournaments ago, perhaps the Sony Open and Dean & Deluca are the best bets.
The good news for bettors like us is that this tournament has thrown up a myriad of weird and wonderful winners down the years from Angel Cabrera in 2014 to Ted Potter in 2012. It’s a thin field this week and there are British Open places up for grabs here, so expect the unexpected. As such, we can almost guarantee some bombs will be on the first page of the leaderboard throughout and on Sunday so once again we’re on the hunt for some longshots and hopefully one or more of our choices will be there.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
Gary Woodland 60-1
Is the ‘Nappy Factor’ actually a thing? Maybe, maybe not, but one thing that is for sure is that Gary Woodland is a better player in this field than sportsbook quotes of 60-1 or thereabouts suggests. Incidentally, the “Nappy Factor” is a phrase coined back in the 90’s regarding “first time fathers” and how they perform better after the birth of their first child. Welcoming a new son into the world after the premature death of the baby’s twin might just help Woodland to kick on from being a tour nearly man (four top-fives this term) to a proven winner, and while he hasn’t played since the US Open, sometimes a new arrival in the family can help to put a sense of perspective on things. Woodland’s form has tailed off since the spring, but a player that ranks in the top 25 on tour for Greens in Regulation and SG: T2G should, theoretically, go well at the Old White. Woodland ranks 17th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation, 25th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and 25th ON TOUR in Approaches from 150-175 yards. Nice overlay here. (Risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-head Matchup @
G. Woodland -110 over G. DeLaet (Risking 1.1 units to win 1).
Jason Kokrak 66-1
A pair of T26s in his last two starts doesn’t necessarily indicate a player in great form but Kokrak is hitting the ball so nicely at the moment that a stronger showing should be just around the corner. A week after topping the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green stats at the Travelers Championship, he followed up by gaining +2.05 on the field at the Quicken Loans. Only four players outperformed him in that area. So what does Shots Gained: Tee to-Green tell us? Simply, that a player is hitting the ball flawlessly nearly every time. That breeds confidence and while his putter is a bit cold, we’re quite aware that it could click into gear at any time. We played Kokrak last week and in a very tough course, he held his own. A minor tweak in his putting and he’ll be right there this week. With 15 top-10 finishes to his name, Kokrak is overdue a maiden PGA TOUR title (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head - MATCHUP of the WEEK @ Bet365
Jason Kokrak +100 over Harris English
While betting longshots to win outright is fun and brings a large return for a small wager, head-to-head matchups are the bread and butter of golf wagering and our research often reveals very favorable one’s like the one we trust we have found here. Lots of moving parts to this wager so we’ll lay out the main parts for you. We often talk about Pinnacle being the sharpest book out there and they had Kokrak at just 46-1 (he has since gone up but they had Kokrak low is the point) to win outright while offering up Harris English as an 86-1 proposition. By contrast, BET365 has English a slightly smaller price (60-1) than Kokrak (66-1). Pinnacle’s “position” alone makes this a strong value play. Furthermore, Pinny has Kokrak -157 to defeat David Hearn over 72 holes, which is another sign that Pinny is expecting a strong showing from Kokrak. That’s good enough for us and is part of the basis for this great value play that figures to win. Therefore, we’re making this our matchup of the week.
Bet Kokrak +100 to defeat English (Risking 2 units to win 2 units).
Jonas Blixt 125-1
A winner here in 2013, Blixt is another one of those players who wouldn’t raise that many eyebrows if he were to win one of the PGA TOUR’s lesser events. The Swede is a three-time Tour winner – the last of which was at the Zurich Classic this year, and that’s thanks to his ability to go on low scoring sprees. He also ranks very nicely ON TOUR for Birdie Average and Total Birdies. Blixt isn’t very good off the tee but as we’ve mentioned, that isn’t as important around this stretch, and instead, his short game and exceptional putting could well elevate him to the business places on the leaderboard. Remember, Blixt was a big factor in his team’s win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and has made 11 out of 19 cuts so far. Finally, we really like that Blixt finds himself teeing off with Patrick Reed and Charles Howell early (8:00 AM) on Thursday and good golfing is contagious among groups. If that pair can do well and get off to a strong start, so, too, can Blixt (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Head-to-head Matchup
There are no head-to-head matchups available for Blixt so we’ll post this unrelated one here:
D. Lingmerth +102 over P. Mickelson (risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units).
Lingmerth looked like he was going to be a runaway winner last week until his driver got a little loose on him. We won’t hold that against him, though, as he is still playing the arguably the best golf of anyone in this field right now. Lingmerth also has an exceptional course history at this event, going three-for-three in made cuts with two top 10’s. Meanwhile, Phil is off a layoff and while he plays his heart out every week, he’s still 46-years-old and to us, this feels like more of a tuneup for the upcoming major in a couple of weeks. A hungry Lingmerth that is knocking on the door, gets this heads up matchup call.
Sean O’Hair 66-1
Looking down this field, there are probably 20-25 guys who have a legitimate chance of winning this event and Sean O’Hair is certainly one of those. His form in our correlating events this year – T11 in the Sony Open and T2 at the Dean & Deluca – is pleasing, as is a run of 13 cuts made in 17 starts. O’Hair is one of those players that is capable of winning an event like this where the field is thin, and by finishing T13 on this track in 2015 and T7 three years earlier, he served notice of his potential for glory in this neck of the woods. (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head Matchup:
S. O'Hair +100 over Sung Hoon Kang (Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit).
For Fantasy Players:
We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is:
Kevin Kisner
It’s been a fantastic season for Kisner, no doubt about it. Six top-10s this term highlight just how consistent he has become, a pair of runners-up spots confirm he can contend with the best and his win at Dean & Deluca…well, that shows he possess the intestinal fortitude to get the job done. We mentioned two correlating events earlier in this preview and Kisner’s form in those (1st at D&D, T4 at the Sony Open) is particularly eye-catching. The elevation in Kisner’s game is clear for all to see. Other finishes such as T11 at the WGC Mexico and T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational confirm he is ready to sit at golf’s top table – not that he needs such elite prowess amongst this field. With a second here in 2015, there is no reason why Kisner can’t take down a second title of the season here and earn lots of fantasy points too.
Others to consider:
Xander Schauffele
It has been a stiff learning curve for Schauffele this year on the PGA TOUR in his first full season, but just lately he has shown some real signs of quality. A top-five performance in the US Open was just desserts for his hard work, and he has continued his fine form (sort of) with T14 at the Travelers Championship and T35 at the Quicken Loans National, where he ended nicely with a round of 68. A number of Schauffele’s fellow Web.com graduates have won this year, and he may just follow suit with a great performance here.
Larry Ness
Miami vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
The Marlins began a 10-game road trip which leads up to Miami playing host for this year's All Star game (July 11th) back on Jun 30. The Marlins won 5-2 on July 4th in St. Louis to leave them 2-3 halfway through their trek but also just 2-5 overall their last seven. The 37-45 Marlins are 12 games back of the Nats in the NL East and not much closer in the wild card chase, 10 games out of the No. 2 spot. The Cards saw a four-game winning streak snapped Sunday night on ESPN and with two losses in their last three, are 40-43, 4 1/2 games out in the NL Central.
The pitching matchup features Edinson Volquez (4-8, 3.97 ERA) for Miami and Mike Leake (6-6, 2.97 ERA) for St. Louis. Volquez opened 0-7 through his first nine starts of 2-7 (Marlins were 1-8 ) but owns a 4-1 record in his last seven starts (Marlins are 5-2), a stretch which includes a no-hitter on June 3rd at home against the D'backs. The veteran Volquez has posted a 5-6 mark with a 4.27 ERA in 18 career starts versus St. Louis (teams are 9-9). Leake owns a sub-3.00 ERA on the season yet snapped a six-start win-less skid with a strong outing this past Friday, allowing one run on five hits in eight innings of an 8-1 rout of Washington. Leake had gone 0-4 (team was 2-4) in that six start span.
Leake's pitched better than his record in 2017 (2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP & .238 BAA) plus has experienced a lot of success in his career against Miami, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.36 ERA over seven starts. Take the home team.
Zack Cimini
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Pick: Diamondbacks
Wednesday, the Dodgers are priced as over two dollar favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Factors for the steep price lie with Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood's strong 9-0 record. Furthermore, the Dodgers have won 75% of their home games with a 34-11 record. Value of this sort doesn't come to often in MLB. Play the value here on the road Diamondbacks.
Drew Martin
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Recommendation: Over 6 1st 5
There a reason this 5-inning total is sitting at 6: Two above average offenses that rank in the top four in runs scores in the American League going up against two very suspect starting pitchers in a ballpark that has a tendency to play "small" during the summer months.
Boston's Doug Fister has been serviceable since being called (11 IP, 6 ERs) up but the 33-year-old veteran wasn't pitching in The Show for a reason. After parlaying his success in Detroit for a big pay day in Washington, Fister's stuff started to diminish. North of 30-years-old, Fister was then shipped to the Astros and thus the American League where he was pounded around throughout the 2016 season (4.64 ERA, 32 starts). The Red Sox are hoping he can chew up a few starts but it's not likely he'll produce much long term.
On the other side is Andrew Cashner, who after a strong April and May, saw his numbers skyrocket. While only recording 22 IP in June, Cashner gave up 33 hits. Cashner's new pitch-to-contact style got him through the first two months of the season but his stats (4.36 Ks per 9, 3.87 ERA, 5.39 xFIP) suggest his struggles will continue. In an earlier start vs. Boston, he was smacked around for five runs over five innings. And he was obviously afraid to attack hitters, hence four walks and only two strikeouts.
Respect both bullpens which is why we'll key in on the 1st five inning going over 6.
Bruce Marshall
Marlins at Cardinals
Pick: Marlins
This looks like enough of a price to get us interested in the Marlins, who have been hitting the ball pretty well the past two days at Busch Stadium, scoring 17 runs in the process. The Cards have hinted at a recent recovery, and have won in Mike Leake's last three starts, but Edinson Volquez has also been mostly sharp lately (Miami 5-2 in his last seven starts) and is worth a look at this price.
Eric Schroeder
Taking a shot here with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as the big road underdog against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I know Alex Wood enters his this game with a 9-0 record and a 1.83 ERA in 73.2 innings, and I know he has limited opposing batters to a .178 average while striking out 87 versus 20 walks. But I also know the due theory has to kick in at some point.
And since I don't play my free plays, and they're nothing more than an opinion play, I say the value is with the underdog.
After all, when everything looks like it points to one side, the suckers usually fall for it.
So I'll side with the National League West's second-place team, as the Diamondbacks are 20-19 on the road, they've won six of 10 and they're chasing the division-leading Dodgers with a vengeance.
I'll list both, too, as Wood already struggled against the Diamondbacks once this season. Back on April 21, he had one of his poorest outings of the season, allowing seven hits and four runs in 4.2 innings.
I'll side with Arizona's Zack Godley, who has gone seven innings and allowed three runs in each of his past two starts.
Take Arizona as my free play tonight.
5* DIAMONDBACKS