Dave Cokin
Texas -104
I see all kinds of small edges here for Texas. Prefer Hamels to Bauer, and doesn't hurt that Cleveland doesn't exactly mash lefties at home. Rangers now on another winning streak, while the Tribe is backing up after their nice run ended. Texas isn't missing a beat with catalyst Odor serving his suspension, as Profar raking in the top spot in the order. This guy was one of the two best prospect position players in the game a few years ago, but got crushed by injuries. Looks great now that he's healthy. Have the better pitcher is at least a little better form than the home team starter, and let's just say I trust Hamels far more than I do Bauer. Price is reasonable enough and I'll take Texas.
Sleepyj
Twins / A's Over 8.5
A few select 8.5's left out on the board..Grab em quick..Early day game will produce some action on the over I would assume..Good reason here as well...A's Manaea can be a pitching machine at times for the opposite team..I have seen him get lit up a few times this year..Twins are starting to hit and that can be trouble for them today..I'm a little surprised the A's are above the -130 mark to be honest..Dean gets the nod for the Twins and at times he can confuse a lineup..I'm not so sure he can do that on the road here today however...A's have been hitting well and winners of 4 straight..Dean will need to bring the goods, but his numbers are up and down in all stat categories..He might hit in one area and not in another...Bullpen guy converted pitcher here with Dean.It's a small sample size with him, but he has picked up a win in his last two starts..I think we see both teams hit each other today in a rather entertaining tight game..I got this one getting over and hitting double digits..Whatever bullpen does a better job should get the win here IMO..They both might give up a few here as well..Both bullpens rank in the lower half of the league.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Mike Scioscia's squad has dominated the Tigers, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, after a dramatic 11-9 win last night. I expect the Halos to make it 12 of 13. Matt Shoemaker has held Tiger hitters to 5 hits in 44 combined at-bats against him. Meanwhile, the Angels have averaged 5.79 rpg in their last 19 games as the bats have truly heated-up. The Angels will face Michael Fulmer, who'll make his 7th start in his MLB career. Fulmer has looked decent in his last two starts, but enters Anaheim with a 4.67 road ERA, to go along with a 1.56 WHIP, and a .291 BAA. Eventually, the hot Angel bats will step-in against the Tigers' bullpen, carrying MLB's 28th worst ERA. Back to Shoemaker for a moment, the right-hander has allowed just one earned run and 13 base runners in three starts against the Tigers, spanning 19 2/3 IP. He's had his best 2016 "stuff" over his last two starts, holding the Astros & Orioles to a combined two earned runs and 10 hits in 15 2/3 IP, while striking out 23 batters without issuing a single walk. We'll look for the Halo bats and Shoemaker to remain hot, and we'll back the Angels as they look to make it 4-0 against Detroit when Shoemaker toes the rubber.
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago White Sox at New York Mets
Prediction: Chicago White Sox +1.5
The White Sox finally snapped a long losing skid yesterday and that could help them to turn the corner here. However, the Mets are a big money line favorite in this one for a good reason...it's based on the pitching match-up. The reason I still like like this play...but like it on the run line...is because the White Sox have had plenty of tight one run losses of late and many of the Mets recent wins have come by only a single run. The Mets just don't score a lot of runs. The Mets are 7-6 in their last 13 games and averaged only 3 runs per game during this stretch. 4 of the 7 wins came by just a single run. For the White Sox, even though they had endured a tough losing streak and with yesterday's win are only 4-9 in their last 13 games, the ChiSox saw 5 of those 9 losses come by just a single run. This afternoon's match-up should play out to be a tight low-scoring ball game where having the run and a half at this price is absolutely a bargain. The Mets Jacob deGrom is off of a strong start but previously had a 4.64 ERA in his 4 prior starts. The White Sox Miguel Gonzalez has allowed only 5 earned runs with 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in the 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. This game is likely to go down to the wire which means excellent line value is being offered with the run line.
Larry Ness
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox opened the season losing NINE of their first 17 games but are an AL-best 24-11 since that time to reach 32-20 and move past the 28-22 Orioles for first-place in the AL East. Boston leads all of MLB in batting average (.294), runs scored(308), doubles (134) and slugging percentage (.489). Xander Bogaerts went 1 for 5 on Tuesday to extend his hitting streak to 24 games. He's batting .393 with five homers and 17 RBI during the run. That’s the second-longest streak in the majors this season behind teammate Jackie Bradley Jr., whose 29-game streak ended Thursday (note: Bradley was placed on the paternity list Tuesday). David Ortiz is batting .469 with 13 RBI during an eight-game streak and Mookie Betts joined the ‘party’ last night with three HRs (five RBI) in Tuesday's 6-2 win. It made him the first Red Sox player with a three-HR game since Will Middlebrooks in 2013.
The Orioles held the division's top spot for most of May but have now lost 10 of 15 to drop a season-high three games behind Boston. The starting rotation has let the team down lately, compiling a 6.10 ERA during the team's 2-7 current stretch, with 14 HRs allowed over 48.2 innings. Mike Wright (2-3, 5.50 ERA) gets the start for Baltimore and seems an unlikely candidate to slow Boston. He has an 11.25 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox with three HRs surrendered in eight innings but he was a 9-5 winner at Fenway Park on April 12, despite allowing four runs in five innings while throwing 96 pitches. In fact, Wright has failed to make it through six innings in either of his last two outings but has been bailed out by the offense, avoiding a loss in both.
Boston’s Joe Kelly is 2-0 with a 6.30 ERA in just five starts so far in 2016. Kelly dominated in his first start off the DL, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Cleveland back on May 21 but his second outing didn’t fare as well. He did strike out eight in 4.2 innings but he also allowed FIVE runs on nine hits (including two HRs) and three walks in a no decision at Toronto this past Friday (Blue Jays won 7-5). As with Wright against Boston, Kelly has struggled against Baltimore in his career, going 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in six starts against the Orioles (teams are 3-3).
The Red Sox have taken the first two of this four-game series but with two struggling starting pitchers, I’m going with the home team.
Mike Lundin
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9½
The Boston Red Sox are looking to complete a three-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards Wednesday night. The Red Sox have outscored the Orioles 13-9 over the first two games of the series, but I think the Orioles will put up a fight in a high-scoring contest here in the series finale.
Joe Kelly (2-0, 6.30 ERA) will take the ball for the Red Sox, and he conceded up five runs on nine hits and three walks with a pair of homers in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision against Toronto his last time out. Kelly earned a win over Baltimore on April 13, yielding just two runs despite giving up seven hits and five walks in five innings and might not be so lucky here. He has a 5.10 ERA in six starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles turn to Mike Wright (2-3, 5.05) who surrendered four runs in five innings at Boston in his season debut. Wright struggled at Cleveland his last outing, giving up three runs and six hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-4 win.
Boston leads the major leagues in runs scored averaging 5.92 runs per game and its .294 batting average is also the best mark. Over is 4-1-1 in Wright's last six home starts. Over is 4-1-1 in Kelly's last six road starts.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees +105
Edges - Yankees: Hiroshima Tanaka 6-2 career team starts in this series, including 3-0 here. Orioles: Aaron Sanchez 4.88 ERA home this season as opposed to 2.38 ERA away. With the Pinstripes having struggled against southpaws (6-12) this season, but 18-14 versus righties, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 8
The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89 ERA) who would throw seven shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Rays on Friday, scattering two hits and walking none in the dominant performance. Tanaka has now thrown back-to-back gems and has been particularly impressive on the road this year, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.34 ERA. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29) who gave up three earned runs off five hits, walking two and striking out six over six innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Friday. Sanchez has become the leader of the Jays’ rotation and note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA in all night games this year. With these two quality starters going head-to-head on Wednesay night, the under is definitely worthy of a second look.
Jim Feist
Pirates at Marlins
Pick: Under
Sixth straight road game for Pittsburgh and they head to Miami, a big park that's tough to hit in. Starter Jonathon Niese is having a fine season and is on a roll, allowing 1, 1, 2 and 3 runs his last four starts. Niese (5-2) surrendered seven hits, an earned run and a walk over six innings in Friday's 9-1 victory over the Rangers. He struck out two. He threw 62 of 93 pitches for strikes Friday, and notched first-pitch strikes on 15 of 26 batters. The last three years he's 4-0 against Miami with a 3.67 ERA. Miami ranks No. 22 in baseball in runs scored and 12-5 under the total at home against a team with a winning record. And the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee +154
Jaime Garcia came back from a terrible performance against Arizona when he gave up five runs and 10 hits in 2 1/3 innings and won a 6-2 decision at Washington. However, the left-hander has now allowed 10 runs and 22 hits his last 14 1/3 innings overall. Milwaukee has a .724 OPS against southpaws. Zach Davies followed up three decent starts with a 5-4 loss at the Mets in which he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and then gave up five runs in a 9-5 win over Cincinnati. In that game, however, Davies gave up a three-run homer in the first inning before settling down to pitch well until taken out in the sixth inning. Davies hasn't given up more than two earned runs in four of his last five starts. It's a good opportunity for Milwaukee to salvage a game from St. Louis as it has won four of its last five after losing the first two games of a series.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +122 over OAKLAND
As painful as it is to watch these pitiful Twins play baseball, we have to stick with playing value and hope the Twins weak defense makes the routine plays. What we know for sure is that southpaw Pat Dean is the recipient of a high small-sample rating for this start at Oakland against an Athletics offense that has produced a mere .639 OPS at home this season. Dean was solid in his last start, a seven-inning outing at Seattle on May 27, and he is a decent under-the-radar play here against an Oakland team that doesn’t hit left-handers well. Dean has a nice BB/K split of 5/20 over 21 innings. He keeps hitters off balance all game with his great location and feel for pitching.
For whatever reason, Minnesota’s best results have come in day games, where they are 8-14. In its other 29 games, they are just 7-22. Sean Manaea’s rise to this level was swift. He went from Rookie ball to High-A to Double-A last year. At the start of this year, he threw 18 innings in Triple-A, where he put up a 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio facing 73 batters in three games started. That’s it’. Manaea had 18 innings of experience above Double-AA before his late April call-up. While he might be the best 7-something-ERA play of the day in fantasy baseball, he’s not a good play spotting a tag. Manaea has been hit hard several times already. He brings one of the worst xERA’s (5.05) among starters into this one, not to mention a WHIP of 1.56. Manaea’s prospect ranking was higher than Dean’s ranking but right now, Dean is the more seasoned pitcher. He also looks more confident out there as well. We’ll plug our nose and play the true value here.
Texas -1½ +170 over CLEVELAND
You can play the Rangers at a pick-em if you like but we much prefer spotting the extra half run and taking back a big price. The Indians are favored so this would be a “MLB alternate run-line” wager.
Cole Hamels owns a 1.63 ERA on the road this season and the veteran left-hander has nice career numbers against Indians batters. The Indians have struggled against southpaws (.693 OPS) and right now they are struggling against everybody. Cleveland has recent losses to Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Mike Wright and Mat Latos. They have been outscored in their last three games, 22-9. Hamels has 67 K’s in 62 innings to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. Hamels is not throwing as many strikes as he has his entire career but that could be on purpose because hitters are swinging at them and missing at a rate of 14%. The bottom line is that Hamels is great and his skills are a thing of beauty.
Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer is being Trevor Bauer. He’s erratic as always and unreliable as always. He’s the type of starter that we never know what we’re going to get. While it seems like ages ago, Trevor Bauer tore up AA and AAA to the tune of a 12-2 record with a 2.42 ERA and 10.8 K’s/9 in 2012. Bauer hasn’t lived up to that hype at the major league level. He’s occasionally brilliant but has enough wildness to have some disastrous outings. Bauer began the season in the Cleveland bullpen after losing out on the fifth starter competition to command artist Josh Tomlin. Then Carlos Carrasco got injured and the Indians were forced to promote Mike Clevinger. Carrasco comes off the DL tomorrow but Clevinger will be the odd man out because of his 8.79 ERA. Had Clevinger been better, Bauer would have been the odd man out again. Bauer has a 4.32 xERA. The Indians have lost his last three starts by a combined score of 20-6. He’s been tagged for 10 runs over his last 17 innings and comes in with a 1.40 WHIP. Bauer is a fragile pitcher. He’s always been prone to giving up jacks and he’ll now face a hot hitting squad. The Indians bullpen, aside from being overtaxed is a complete mess too. Hamels v Bauer is not a pick em or a 50/50 proposition, it’s a mismatch.
San Francisco -1½ +138 over ATLANTA
Williams Perez stock is high right now because of his 2-1 record and 3.72 ERA. Remarkably, Atlanta has won five of Perez’s last six starts so anyone that has bet against Perez lately is not so anxious to bet against him again. We are. Perez has a very weak BB/K split of 12/19 in 38 innings. He has a 4% swing and miss rate. Pitchers like Perez rely on the extreme variances of batted balls in play. In that regard, those balls are either going to be hit at people or not. Perez will give up hits and he’ll put the ball in play. He will then pray that those hits are not strung together and that his defense is very sharp. Current Giants have hit .333 against Perez with a OPS of .809. Perez’s run of good fortune will not last much longer, as this is the exact same pitcher that posted a 1.55 WHIP last year to go along with an ERA of 4.78.
One of the top right-handers in the Rays system way back in 2008, Albert Suarez has flown under the radar because of physical issues. He was not resigned by Tampa and then signed as a free agent with Anaheim before being granted free agency again and signing with the Giants on November 18 of 2015. Suarez missed much of 2009 and the first three months of 2010 after Tommy John surgery and he was sidelined until late July of 2011 with Lyme disease. The road to the majors has been a long one but Suarez has remained focused and extremely determined. He has shown a fluid delivery as well as a knack for getting hitters out. Suarez's fastball returned last summer to its previous velocity of 93-94 mph, and he throws it on a steep downhill plane. He also has a good feel for a sharp curveball and a changeup. He has maintained his control and command despite his setbacks and repeated stints on the disabled list. Suarez has tremendous makeup with a strong desire to get better. He’ll now make his first MLB start after eight long years and 523 minor league innings. Prior to his call-up, Suarez posted a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings for Sacramento of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. People have great respect for anyone that perseveres and shows great determination. His Manager, Bruce Bochy and his teammates are rooting for him big time and we trust the Giants to dig down deep in support of Suarez here. The jacked up Giants get the call.
Power Sports
Seattle vs. San Diego
Pick: Under
I had the M's yday as they rolled to a 16-4 victory. Those expecting a similar offensive explosion tonight need to be aware of two key factors. One, this series now moves to pitcher friendly Petco Park. Two, Seattle scored 13 of those 16 runs yday w/ two outs. So, I'm calling for an Under tonight.
Oh, by the way, Seattle will be sending Felix Hernandez to the bump here. King Felix is deserving of far better than a 5-5 team start record given his 2.86 ERA and 1.222 WHIP. Those aren't the best numbers in baseball by any means, but they looked a lot better before a somewhat disastrous outing against the Twins over the weekend. I'll call for him to bounce back here against a Padres team he has dominated throughout his career. Hernandez has posted a 1.13 ERA his L6 starts at Petco Park and has thrived in Interleague Play, going 20-9 in 37 starts (2.75 ERA). Remember he gets to face the pitcher here.
James Shields was absolutely awful (allowed career-worst 10 runs) yday for San Diego. Needless to say, I expect today's starter Christian Friedrich to be better. There is no denying that he has a spotty track record, but Friedrich has pitched relatively well in 2016. That includes his last start where he didn't give up any runs (only three hits) in seven innings (Padres won 10-2 at Arizona). The bottom line is this should be a low-scoring game.
Brandon Shively
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado -1.5
I usually don’t like to lay -1.5 runs with the Colorado Rockies, but facing a beaten up and batterred Cincinnati Reds team, that is going to be an easy decision for me tonight.
John Lamb is rumored to be still injured but the Reds don’t have any more pitchers they want to use due the lengthy list of pitchers already on the DL. Lamb has been terrible this season, especially on the road where he has given up 13 runs off of 17 hits in only 7.2 innings as he has failed to make is past the 4th inning. That’s not a good thing as the Reds have a historically bad bullpen, the worst in the Majors by far. Facing a Rockies team that teed off for 7 homeruns last night, this is a dangerous ballclub and one the Reds should be fearing.
Tyler Chattwood takes the mound for Colorado. While Chatwood is not Clayton Kershaw, he has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 80% of his starts this season and the Rockies have won 70% of his starts, opposed to the Reds losing ALL five of John Lamb’s starts.
The Reds have lost 80% of their road games this season. 70% of those losses have come by two or more runs. When Colorado wins at home, 80% of their wins this season have come by 2 or more runs.
Chase Diamond
Mariners vs. Padres
Play: Padres +1½
Late night game with the 30-21 Mariners and the 20-33 Padres. The Padres were roughed up in Seattle yesterday 16-4 I believe they come out fighting today and Christian Friedrich has been solid at 1-1 with a 1.65. Yes King Felix is going for the Mariners but last time out he really did not look sharp and I think the Padres will be out for blood tonight after yesterday's bad loss I like taking the points with the Padres tonight late but don't be shocked if they win this game ourite.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox/Orioles Over 9
Boston features the best lineup in baseball and could eclipse this total on their own. The Red Sox have scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 10 games and figure to at least hit that mark in this one. The Orioles will send out Mike Wright, who has a 5.16 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 8 starts. He's had no luck slowing down the Red Sox offense in his two starts against them, giving up 10 runs on 11 hits in just 8 innings of work over 2 starts. Baltimore also figures to have a strong day at the plate, as the Red Sox will start Joe Kelly, who has really struggled in 2 road starts and has a 5.10 ERA and 1.633 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Orioles.