Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Yankees -107
The Yankees and Blue Jays continue their series and it's New York who has value here. New York sends out Masahiro Tanaka, who has been dominant on the road. Tanaka sits with a 2-0 record with just a 1.34 ERA over a 5 start span. Over his last 3 starts, he has allowed just 1 run in 22 innings of work.
Aaron Sanchez goes for Toronto and he is still in search of his first win at home. Sanchez sits with an 0-1 record, while holding a 4.88 ERA inside the Rogers Centre.
Some trends to consider. Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.
New York has a strong edge with this pitching matchup here and given that, they hold solid value at a PK price.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles +107
The Baltimore Orioles are highly motivated for a victory today against the AL-East leading Boston Red Sox. They have lost the first two games of this series and seven of their last nine games overall. But now they are undervalued here as home dogs to the Red Sox.
Mike Wright is the better starter in this matchup and has shown some good signs of turning it around here of late. Wright is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in his last three starts in which the Orioles have gone 3-0 against the money line.
Joe Kelly is the biggest weak link in Boston's rotation. He has posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.999 WHIP in five starts this season, including a 14.08 ERA and 2.868 WHIP in two road starts. Kelly is also 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.633 WHIP in six career starts against Baltimore.
The Orioles are 21-6 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 12-28 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last three seasons. The Orioles are 76-35 in their last 111 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Brandon Lee
Rays +101
I know that Archer hasn't pitched up to his potential so far this season, but I just can't pass up on the value here with Tampa Bay's ace. Archer is coming off one of his best starts of the season, as he allowed just 1 earned run in 8 innings against the Yankees. He's more than capable of stringing together 10+ starts like this. He will be opposed by Danny Duffy, who hasn't pitched past the 6th inning in 3 starts and was hit hard in his last outing at home against the White Sox, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 1/3. Archer is 13-3 in his last 16 road starts against a team that averages 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.
John Ryan
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Rangers -102
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-15 over the last 5 seasons good for 72% winners and made 23 units/unit wagered. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on Wednesday. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 26-16 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season; 46-25 (+35.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 24-12 (+18.0 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season: 23-13 (+14.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Fundamental Discussion Points Hamels is 3-0 with a 1.63 ERA in four road starts. He has terrible numbers against Cleveland, however his 2 starts were a long time ago against very different Indians teams. Current Indians have only a .173 average against Hamels. Take Texas Rangers.
Alex Smart
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 8
Tanaka has been in top form during his most recent two starts, posting a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings against the A's and Rays. He took a no-decision in a 3-2 win on April 12 at Toronto, allowing two runs in five innings and is ready , to slow the Jays offense again tonight. Meawhile, the Jays top young gun Sanchez has limited the opposition to three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts this season. In a previous start vs NYY the righty allowed one earned run over six innings in a no-decision on April 12.
Under is 6-0 in Tanakas last 6 road starts.Under is 8-2-2 in Yankees last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 7-0 in Tanakas last 7 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Matt Josephs
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9½
There should be plenty of runs in Baltimore with two vulnerable pitchers on the mound. Mike Wright is 2-3 with a 5.16 ERA in eight starts for the Orioles with five of those going over the total. Wright beat Boston at their place back on April 12th despite allowing four runs and five hits in five innings of work. Boston has scored five runs or more in five straight and nine of their last 10. Joe Kelly has a 6.30 ERA and a WHIP of 1.999 in five starts this season. He has allowed 12 runs and 16 hits in two road outings. Kelly has a 5.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.633 in six career starts against the Orioles. He only allowed two runs to them at home back on April 13th despite giving up five walks and seven hits. The Orioles are hitting .259 against right-handed starters and around .258 this season overall. These two have the potential to score a boatload of runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Pirates -103
Pittsburgh fell 1-3 at the hands of the Marlins on Tuesday, as they couldn't get anything going offensively against Miami ace Jose Fernandez. The Pirates are still an impressive 11-5 in their last 16. The key thing to note is that all 5 losses have come against quality starters in Teheran, Chatwood, Darvish, Perez and Fernandez.
Today the Pirates will face lefty Adam Conley, who has a 4.15 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 10 starts, including a 5.91 ERA and 1.641 WHIP in 4 starts at home. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in their last 7 road games against a left-handed starter and 6-1 in their last 7 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Pirates are also a dominant 36-16 in their last 52 after scoring 2 runs or less.
Pittsburgh will send out Jon Niese, who comes into this game with a less than impressive 4.42 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 10 starts. However, Niese has been a different pitcher of late. He's got a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP over his last 3 starts. It's also worth noting that the Pirates have won 7 of his 10 starts this season.
Chip Chirimbes
Rays at Royals
Play: Rays
It is difficult for me to comprehend how the Rays keep coming up the favorite in this series against the World Champion Royals. Kansas City has won five straight straight and have scored 36 runs in the streak while the Rays have dropped nine of their last 11 games. Chris Archer (3-6, 4.62 ERA) who finally put it together last time out against the Yankees is just 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts versus Kansas City. Danny Duffy (0-0, 3.23) is making just his fourth start and is off a poor outing against the White Sox allowing five runs in a no-decision.
Harry Bondi
LA ANGELS -105 over Detroit
We love the way Angels starter Matt Shoemaker is trending right now and this price gives us a ton of value. Shoemaker started the season 1-5 with an ERA north of 9.00, but in his last three starts he is 2-0 with as 2.18 ERA and he has struck out 28 with just two walks. He is also a much better pitcher in his ballpark, compiling a 3.28 ERA. Angels simply have the Tigers' number as they have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a wild 11-9 decision last night. Lay the short price at home with LA.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the same as Monday's free play winner, and that is the Under in the Sharks-Penguins game.
I told you that 5 1/2 was just a little too high a total, and voila, the teams end on 5 goals.
Same thinking applies tonight, as the Under now stands at 4-1 the last 5 times these teams have faced one another.
San Jose has played 3 of their last 4 on the postseason road Under the total, while Pittsburgh has held Under in their last pair at home, and are 3-1-1 Under their last 5 playoff home games.
Once again a game that sees right around 5 total goals, as Game 2 holds Under the total in the quest for the Cup.
2* SAN JOSE-PITTSBURGH UNDER
Scott Delaney
I'm headed back to Oaktown for my free play today, as the Twins and Athletics take the field for a matinee contest. And once again, I'm just going to ride the momentum in the city of Oakland. The town is rocking right now.
TV trailers, national media, celebrities - everyone - is headed to Oakland.
When the Golden State Warriors clinched the Western Conference Monday night against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the city caught fire. The sports fans are running ramped. They're electric.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals is Thursday. Until then, there are the Oakland A's. Last night I told you the line was off, as the Twins were a slight favorite, and the Athletics proved that.
Trust me, cause if you don't think momentum carries over from sport to sport, in the same city, then you live in a shoebox, or have never experienced a professional city.
Last football season, I went to see the Kansas City Chiefs against the Pittsburgh Steelers, in KC's first game after the Royals clinched the American League Championship Series. The stadium was electric. And the Chiefs won. The Royals were honored, but the crowd came out and ignited the Chiefs.
With the town abuzz, and the Warriors having everyone excited about another title, the last thing the A's are going to do this week is spoil the mood. Look for the A's to carry that same momentum over to this game, take advantage of a Twins team that has lost four in a row.
Take Oakland.
1* ATHLETICS
Brad Wilton
My Wednesday comp play is the Under in the Yankees-Blue Jays.
New York should send out a missing persons ad for their offense, because the Yankees just cannot seem to get anything working these days at the plate.
Over their last 27 innings played, they have scored a grand total of 5 runs, as they have held Under the total in each of their last 3 games, and 5 of their last 6 games overall.
Toronto has also held Under the total in 3 straight, and 7 of their last 10 games overall.
Masahiro Tanaka has made 10 starts this year, and 7 of the 10 have played Under the total. His ERA is a most respectable 2.89.
His counterpart Aaron Sanchez has also made 10 starts, with 6 of them holding Under the total, and an ERA of 3.29.
Look for the runs to be few and far between tonight at the Rogers Centre, as the Yankees and Blue Jays hold Under the total once again.
4* N.Y. YANKEES-TORONTO UNDER
Otto Sports
Detroit at Los Angeles
Play: Under 8
LA's Matt Shoemaker has always been a tricky handicap. When he's bad, he's one of the worst starters in baseball. When he's good -- like he's been on late -- he typical offers pretty good value. Thanks to a plus splitter, Shoemaker has been missing bats like crazy with 23 strikeouts and 48 (!) swinging strikes over his last two starts against Baltimore and Houston. Detroit's Michael Fulmer is also is good form having allowed only 1 earned run over his last two outings. And what's impressive about Fulmer is his overall numbers (34 IP, 36Ks, 3.97 ERA) were produced despite five of his six starts coming on the highway which for a rookie, can be a difficult task. With two right-handed starters and two right-hand heavy lineups -- as well as the potential for shadows given the funky 4 pm PT start -- this sets up well for a lower scoring game.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals -1.5 -130
I'm willing to lay some juice even to back the Nationals on the Run Line today given their edge on the mound in this game against the Philadelphia Phillies. Max Scherzer is 5-4 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 11 starts this season with 90 K's in 73 1/3 innings. Scherzer owns the Phillies, going 5-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.925 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against them. Adam Morgan has been the worst starter for the Phillies this season, going 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 6 starts. Morgan is 0-3 with a 9.88 ERA and 1.902 WHIP in his last 3 starts to boot. The Nationals slugged four homers yesterday and should tee off on Morgan here, too. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 63-53 run with free picks: San Jose at PITTSBURGH (5.5-over, +140)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final was certainly interesting. The Penguins opened up a 2-0 lead. The Sharks skated in the second period with Pittsburgh and was able to tie the game. That late goal by the Penguins provided the final margin. Now, the Sharks have a better idea what to do, and they're going to force the Penguins to play faster paced in all three periods.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - San Jose's agility on the blades is my key. I'm not going to play the side, but make it clear, I can see San Jose bouncing back and winning Game 2 tonight. The Sharks can skate with the Penguins. They just need to do it for more than a period and a half. If you wanted a bonus play for free, I would venture to say it wouldn't hurt to play SMALL on the Sharks - but I am not and won't commit to them. I do think the Sharks can win this series in 6 or 7. But tonight, it'll be their faster paced style that will help us go over.
BOTTOM LINE is - This is still Sidney Crosby's team. And that's why I won't be playing the side. The Penguins have shown far too much resiliency in this postseason, and Crosby has finally found a bit of a groove. I think he will be the lynchpin in keeping the Penguins moving tonight, and helping this one land on six or seven.
1* Sharks/Penguins Over