Free Picks for Wednesday, June 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego -125
This is a play on Chacin and against Garrett. It’s really as simple as that, as Garrett might be the only lefty I’d take a shot against with the Friars. They are horrendous offensively against southpaws.
But Garrett looks overmatched right now as he can’t get his mechanics straight. So he’s a straight fade at this point. I really like the potential for the Las Vegas lefty, but he appears to be in dire need of more seasoning presently.
Chacin has been spectacular at Petco for the Padres, so I’ve got some confidence in him here. From a team perspective, the Friars are not all that awful at home, but Cincy has been quite bad on the road lately, losing seven in a row and trailing again as I’m writing this.
I’m not going to pretend I’m wild about laying a price with SD, but Garrett is very possibly the worst starter in baseball right now. So the Padres are the pick in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Reds vs. Padres
Play: Under 9
I know Amir Garrett of the Reds has struggled recently but the biggest problem for him has been giving up the home run ball. That is unlikely to be an issue for him here as the Padres have a .341 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. That ranks San Diego dead last in the majors for slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching on the year. The Reds are slumping and have averaged just 3.6 runs per game in their last 5 games. They didn't score any runs in the first 8 innings of last night's game. Now they face a starting pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin who is 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his 6 home starts this season! Also, Cincinnati has only faced him once since the 2011 season and the Reds were held to 4 hits in 6 innings in that match-up in 2014. Both teams were trending over prior to last night's result but I expect that under to carry momentum right into another under this afternoon. Keep in mind, as bad as Garrett's overall numbers look this season, teams are only hitting .265 against him and the Padres season-long struggles against lefties continue here.
Mike Lundin
Texas vs. Houston
Play: Texas +1½
The Houston Astros are sitting top of the AL West 11 games ahead of LAA and the Texas Rangers who are tied for 2nd. The Rangers are however the team riding a five-game winning streak and the visitors can complete the sweep of this three-game series Wednesday night.
Houston hands the ball to Francis Martes (0-0, 9.82 ERA) who will make his first career start. The 21 year old was charged with four earned runs in 3 2/3 frames of relief against the Angels on Friday, and this is not a good time to face the Rangers who have averaged more than five runs per game during their winning streak.
Andrew Cashner (3-5, 3.17 ERA) takes the ball for Texas. The right-hander has come up with six quality starts over his last eight appearances. He's not had much success against Houston this season, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA, but the Astros have struggled at the plate lately resulting in losses in six of their last eight games.
Stephen Nover
Kansas at San Francisco
Play: Kansas City +169
The Golden State Warriors are a team for the ages. Their baseball counterpart in the Bay Area, the San Francisco Giants, are a team for the Dark Ages. The Giants are 26-40. Only the Phillies have a worst record. San Francisco didn't lose 40 games until July 24 last year. Hope Madison Bumgarner enjoyed that dirt bike ride he took back in April. The Giants haven't recovered from his absence. Minus Bumgarner, the Giants' top pitcher is Johnny Cueto. That sounds OK, but truth be told the 31-year-old Cueto has been declining for more than a year now. He has a 4.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Cueto still has the big name, though, which has made the Giants very overpriced for this matchup. Kansas City is five games below .500, but showing life. The Royals are only five games out of first in the AL Central Division. The Royals have scored 28 runs in winning three in a row, including defeating the Giants, 8-1, last night. The Royals are familiar with Cueto, who helped Kansas City win the World Series in 2015. Cueto has a 3.79 ERA in three career starts versus his former team. Journeyman Jason Hammel gets the start for the Royals. I can't say I like Hammel, but he's not one of those pitchers who should be in a junkyard rather than a big league rotation. Hammel is good for innings and brings a veteran savvy. He's pitched better in his last two starts giving up four runs in 13 2/3 innings to the Indians and Astros. The impressive thing about those two outings was he had 11 strikeouts and no walks. Both the Astros and Indians have better offenses than the Giants, who rank second-to-last in runs scored. It's hard to believe just three years ago these two teams met in the World Series. The Giants are really scuffling. The Royals are down, too, but in a better place right now. Cueto is far from the long-time ace he was with the Reds. There is clear value taking the underdog Royals.
Cappers Club
Orioles vs. White Sox
Play: Orioles -122
The Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox face off on Wednesday night, and the Orioles have a ton of value in this one.
Although the Orioles come into this game struggling. This is a perfect spot for them to turn it around.
On the mound for the White Sox is Miguel Gonzalez who has really struggled this season. He comes into this game with a 4-7 record and an ERA of 5.01. In his last two starts he has given up a total of ten runs. The Orioles are a team that can score and I would look for them to do a lot of that in this game.
On the mound for the Orioles is Dylan Bundy who has pitched well this year but has been a victim of poor run support. In his last ten starts he has only given up more then three runs once.
Some trends to note. White Sox are 1-7 in Gonzalezs last 8 starts. Orioles are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Scott Spreitzer
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego -124
Jhoulys Chacin did it again on Friday, another good performance at home in a 6-3 win over the Royals. Chacin allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings to lower his home ERA to 1.58 and opponents are batting just .152 against him at Petco Park. Amir Garrett got off to a strong start this season, but lately has been hit hard allowing 23 runs on 21 hits in 12 2/3 innings his last four starts in which Cincinnati has lost by a combined score of 37-22. Garrett has an 8.14 ERA on the road and in two day games, he's given up 14 earned runs on 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings. The Reds have lost five in a row and 19 of their last 24 road games. The Padres have won 14 of the last 19 meetings and eight of the last 11 at home, including the first two games of this series.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Indians
Play: Indians -155
Edges - Indians: Kluber 6-1 last seven team starts during June, including 4-0 at home… Dodgers: McCarthy 1-6 last seven team starts during June. With McCarthy just 1-3 his last four team starts vs the Tribe, and Kluber in strong KW form with 22Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jesse Schule
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Over 7½
The Yankees are knocking the cover off the ball, leading the major leagues in runs scored. New York has won six straight, including Game 1 of this series in LA. The total for Wednesday's Game 3 looks a little low all things considered.
Michael Pineda will toe the slab for the Yankees, and he's having a solid season. Pineda (7-3, 3.39 ERA) allowed one run on three hits, striking out eight in seven innings in a 9-1 home win over Boston his last time out. He hasn't had as much success on the road, going 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA in five starts.
The Halos hand the ball to Matt Shoemaker, who has a 4-1 home record, but along with an ERA of 4.76. The Yankees have hit him pretty good in the past, batting .317 over a combined 41 at bats. He's been taken deep four times in his last three starts (17 IP).
Aaron Judge leads the American League in batting average and home runs, and he's second with 49 RBIs. He's hit four home runs and has eight RBIs in his last three games.
3G-Sports
Rangers at Astros
Play: Astros -153
Houston's Brad Peacock's fastball has been pretty nice. And shows signs of being a very good go-to pitch in the future. Houston has been ripping the ball with their outstanding power hitting skills - and their fielding has been better than it has had been at times. Cashner has shown he be pretty hard to hit, with some strong movement on his pitches. The Texas pitcher has struggled with his command at times, with a consistent K pitch with just 3.99 K's/9 innings. Texas has not had steady "put em out pitcher" from their starters over most of the last 10-12 games. Houston wins this one at home on Wednesday night!
Mike Anthony
Oakland vs. Miami
Play: Miami -163
The Miami starting pitching has had some questionable runs - but their fielding and batting can both be pretty good. Volquez has been carrying around a 3.41 ERA and the bats of Oakland cant catch Miami's best pitcher. The problem, is that the players in Oakland just aren't that good. The A's team, on the whole, has lucked out more than a couple of times thus far with some late errors, and late hits. Oakland has really struggled with defense and their pitching isn't up to par with Miami.
Frank Jordan
Oakland vs. Miami
Play: Miami -163
Oakland managed just three hits and one run on Tuesday night while striking out nine times. Miami was able to collect 11 hits, four walks leading to eight runs and a win. Oakland is 9-24 on the road while Miami is within a game of reaching .500 at home. Miami is throwing Edinson Volquez is 3-7 on the year with a 3.41 ERA and is coming off three great starts allowing just a single run total in those three starts which were all wins and included a no-hitter. Volquez is throwing well at home with a 2-2 mark and ERA of 2.40 in five starts. Thus far in two June starts Volquez is sporting a 0.00 ERA. Oakland has rookie Daniel Gossett on the mound making his first career start. Look for the rookie to make some mistakes in the middle of the play and Volquez to keep his scoreless streak going as the Marlins win 6-0.
Jim Feist
Baltimore at Chicago
Pick: Under
This is a big park in Chicago and Baltimore is #22 in baseball in runs scored, #25 in on-base percentage. Starter Dylan Bundy (3.05 ERA) has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of the last 10 starts. The Under is 11-4-1 in Bundy's last 16 starts on grass. Chicago is #19 in runs, #22 in on-base percentage. Starter Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.04 ERA at home and the Under is 5-2 in his last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
Kyle Hunter
Chicago at New York
Play: Chicago -108
The Chicago Cubs have badly underachieved this season. I think we have reached a point where so many public bettors have been burned by them that the Cubs lines are going to have too much value now.
This is a Cubs team that has flaws right now, but they are fully capable of making a deep playoff run again. I expect them to get hot. Matt Harvey has been terrible this year. Harvey has a 5.02 ERA and his FIP is 5.87, so it isn't bad luck that has gotten him this year. Harvey's walk rate is the highest of his career and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.
Mike Montgomery isn't great, but he's a lefty who could give the Mets trouble. The Mets have a miserable .298 OBP against lefties this year.
The Cubs have the big bullpen edge. Michael Conforto is doubtful here with a back injury.
Drew Martin
Los Angeles at Cleveland
Play: Los Angeles +140
The Cleveland Indians host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber takes the hill for the Tribe; his ninth start of the year and third since being activated from the DL. Last time out, Kluber went six innings and allowed three runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts against the White Sox. It was a very favorable matchup and the second time this season Kluber rolled through Chicago's lineup. In fact, if you eliminate Kluber's two outings against the White Sox, his ERA is an alarming 5.50 over seven starts.
Brandon McCarthy doesn't always get the respect he deserves because he's so injury prone. But when healthy, his stuff grades out as well above average. Note that his average exit velocity against, according to Statcast, is 84.4 mph. That ranks seventh-best out of 146 starters with at least 100 balls put in play. McCarthy has been throwing a cutter at a much higher rate this year which has significantly helped his ability to tame left-handed bats.
Cleveland is one of the most over-priced teams in MLB at nearly -15 units despite being a game over .500. Yes, the American League continues to dominate Interleague play, but this particular matchup is far more even than the price suggests. At +140, the Dodgers offer lots of value.