SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +102 over Detroit
Taijuan Walker comes off the disabled list for this start so he’s been somewhat forgotten about. In 52 innings before his injury on May 19, Walker posted a 3.43/3.23 ERA/xERA split. With 18 walks and 46 K’s in 52 frames, Walker was looking pretty sweet at the time and now he’ll get right back at it. Walker pitched for the Mariners last year and went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA. Flat feet apparently caused a foot and ankle issue that led to some flat skills in the 2nd half, but his 1st half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Walker has yet to post a full season ERA under 4.00, but xERA says it's there for the taking. He's on the precipice of bigger and better things and we’ll gladly put that to the test here.
Have you seen the Tigers vomit-inducing bullpen at work this season? If you haven’t, you’ll see them today if you watch this game and you’ll likely see them early too. It wasn't long ago that Jordan Zimmermann was viewed as one of the more reliable starters in the game with a sub-3.25 ERA each season from 2010-14. Fast forward to 2017 and Zimmermann currently sports one of the worst xERAs among active starters with a 5.71 mark through 12 starts (BTW, we warned you about him too). The question is can he rebound or improve? The numbers say NO WAY! Zimmermann’s skills are getting worse. Much worse. Zimmermann was never a big strikeout guy, but his K-rate has plunged into the danger zone and his low swing and miss rate won't bail him out. He's not getting ahead in the count as often and he's throwing fewer strikes in general (Ball%). Ominous signs that Zimmermann's once-pinpoint control might be a thing of the past. His xERA of 5.76 says Zimmermann fully deserves the awful surface stats. His skills confirm this hasn't been bad luck; just bad skills. Zimmermann's decline is bad; we've seen three-year drops in almost every major skill: xERA, groundball rate, control, K-rate, command, first-pitch strike rate and Ball%. That's really hard to do and unfortunately for Zimmermann, it means the unrosterable numbers aren't going away. The best news however is that we don't owe him $92 million through the 2020 season. The Tigers do and we’ll get to cash in on that many times before they can’t stomach it anymore. Fade.
Texas +146 over HOUSTON
While we have very little interest in backing Andrew Cashner, our hand is forced here because the price on the Astronauts here is just plain stupid. Houston is in its first funk of the year and will be forced to bring in some reinforcements. You see, Houston’s rotation has been hit hard by the injury bug. Charlie Morton, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers are all out while Colin McHugh remains out. That’s four of the Astros projected starting five on the rack. As a result, the Astros announced that Francis Martes will make his first MLB start today, which is something that they didn't necessarily want to see this early. For now, it looks as though they might have to rely on Martes more than they wanted to and now this not-ready-for prime-time kid is favored like he’s Chris Archer? Are you kidding?
We understand that Cashner could blow up and the Astronauts could score 10 runs here. It happens. Hell, we took the Mariners last night and they scored seven times but gave up 20 but it’s something we can’t concern ourselves with because Francis Martes is not supposed to be here and cannot be favored in this range. Martes was not the Astros next man up either. There have been four guys before him so four starters and one reliever had to get injured for him to get this call and he’s not ready. Martes is a great prospect and is even projected to be a front-line starter someday but he just turned 21 and has just 32 innings above Double-A ball and just 139 innings above A-ball. To say that Martes is raw would be an understatement. At Triple-A, Martes was struggling with a 5.29 ERA after eight starts. In 32 Triple-A innings, Martes surrendered 40 hits and 24 runs. When he got the call last week, he threw 3.2 innings of long relief and walked two batters, struck out two batters and was behind every batter he faced but one. Frankly, it’s beyond ludicrous that Francis Marten is this big a favorite in his first major league start. Furthermore, the Astros just lost two of three to KC, two of three to the Angels and the first two games of this series. Looking for value? If so, this one must be played.
Seattle +121 over MINNESOTA
Sam Gaviglio has an excellent feel for pitching and can command his sinker/slider combination impeccably well. He works to both sides of the plate and induces a high number of groundballs by getting great, late action on his fastball. He’s only made five starts but over 29 innings but his 53%/18%/29% groundball/ line-drive/flyball profile is one of the best in the game. Caviglio’s groundball rate in his last game was 76%. Gaviglio’s best offering may be his change-up. He repeats his arm speed consistently and it gives him a deceptive weapon against left-handed hitters. Despite all the accolades, he doesn’t throw very hard—sits in the high-80s—and he is a pitch-to-contact guy but he does have 19 K’s in 29 innings. An elite groundball pitcher in these hitting conditions at Target Field is worth getting behind but this is more of a fade against a pitcher in line for some major regression.
With 2,200+ career innings of a 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, you'd have been pretty safe to expect little from Ervin Santana this season. Santana’s 2.20 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 13 starts in 2017 has not gone unnoticed and now his stock is through the roof. We’re sellers because Santana is actually posting some of the worst skills of his career. Look at the 2½-run gap between xERA and ERA. Santana's benefited from an other-worldly hit%/strand% combo. Santana's posting fewer Ks than ever before, and it corresponds with a drop in his swing and miss rate to its current 8%. Overall, Santana has an ugly BB/K split of 33/63 in 90 innings. He's been unable to sustain 2016's control improvement and his underlying first-pitch strike and Ball% remain below league average. Santana's current pace simply isn't sustainable. The last starting pitcher to post a sub-2.50 ERA with skills this poor was Clay Buchholz in 2010 before he blew up. We told you about him and we warned you about Marco Estrada too, who is in the midst of blowing up and Santana is in line to do the same. With fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an insane amount of luck, it's time to cash out on Santana and sell. Things will get worse from here.
SPORTS WAGERS
U.S. Open
Wow, where to start. Erin Hills has been greeted with a rather mixed set of reviews from those who have played a practice round or two on the track. Dustin Johnson was enthusiastic in his praise for the layout after playing a couple of rounds there last week, although subsequent social media posts from Wes Bryan and Kevin Na have bemoaned the difficulty of the rough stuff. Bryan took to Twitter to showcase just how deep the fescue is, while Na’s it’s-funny-but-don’t-laugh-because-he’s-angry Instagram post confirmed that if your ball lands in the thick stuff this week. you can basically kiss it goodbye. For the purists at least, that’s how the US Open should be. Look at the roll call of former winners here: the likes of Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Graeme McDowell, Webb Simpson, and Lucas Glover have taken the title. Those guys have a few things in common, most notably their short-and-straight hitting and an ability to avoid disaster on the course. If that’s the blueprint for the US Open champion, then we’re all for that.
That’s one angle but then there’s the polar opposite of that. Erin Hills is big….extremely big. Set in 652 acres of land – four times that of the average golf course, and from the very back tees measures a ridiculous 8,348 yards in total. The suggestion is that it will actually play at around 7,693 yards this week, making it the second longest track in US Open history and even then by just two yards to Chambers Bay. And it’s not just the hitting length. Erin Hills is said to be an exhausting physical test, with players walking more than six miles per round up and down hills and through thick grass if tee shots are wayward; in total, the champion will have stomped more than 20 miles on route to glory. With very little shade and temperatures expected to reach 88 degrees, the US Open 2017 could well be a young man’s game. The breeze can reach up to 30 mph at Erin Mills and it very rarely comes from a single direction. Course management is going to be tremendously difficult this week.
It’s not all doom and gloom. The US Open will revert to a Par 72 for the first time in 25 years, and initial observations have suggested that fairways are wider than normal; perhaps Bryan and Na are scaremongering slightly with their criticism. The Bentgrass greens are said to be responsive but not lightning fast, and noticeably there are few trees on the course. It feels very open.
Erin Hills is untested as a professional golf course though (it did host the 2011 US Amateur Championship), and anybody who remembers the fiasco at Chambers Bay in 2015 – only five players finished under par at a course that Gary Player described as ‘the worst I’d seen in 63 years as a golfer’ – will be concerned.
This is going to be a slightly different test to the US Open norm in that it is a Par 72 and it is being played at a much longer course than normal, so strokes gained from tee-to-green will be a key statistic. Picking out players with strong Total Driving stats – but with a heavy focus on the distance metric – is a good starting point. Our picks are going to have to stay out of that fescue altogether or scramble supremely well from medium range; with the small greens perched on elevations, or with brutal run-off areas, scrambling will be a key stat full stop.
The bunkers are described as treacherous at Erin Hills, so effective course management will be crucial, with course designer Michael John Hurdzan quoted as saying that ‘nobody will be able to play the bunkers very well’ so strong approach play, from around the 125-175 mark, will be essential.
As for the Bentgrass greens, well, you don’t win a major unless you putt well. They will play pretty fast, especially if windy, so looking out for Bentgrass specialists makes sense.
This is a major, so you kinda know the drill here already. The absolute cream of the crop is in town while some other big names like Phil Mickelson seems unlikely to make his tee time after attending his daughter’s graduation, and Ryan Moore, who is struggling with a shoulder injury, will also miss out. Tiger Woods, who could have teed up as a former US Open champion, has declined the invitation. Other than that, the field is as star-studded as you can imagine it would be with the top 60 in the OWGR taking their place alongside an eclectic mix of qualifiers and those exempt from qualifying. Basically, anybody who is anybody in world golf – plus some incredibly talented amateurs – will take to the tee at Erin Hills and hopefully, one or more of our choices will be in the mix come Sunday. Let’s see if we can find some value here. We’ll also add some DFS notes.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
Brooks Koepka 45-1
He’s not your traditional sleeper by any means, but many bettors may miss Koepka this week given that he is surrounded in the listings by more fashionable or recognizable names. Missing out on his exceptional record in majors would be foolhardy though. His T11 at Augusta earlier this year continued a fine trend for Brooks in majors. Since the start of 2014, his record in the four big ones reads 21-13-4-33-18-10-5-4-67-15, so you should be getting plenty of bang for your buck. Most interesting is that Koepka has been able to change his game based on requirements, faring well in attritional editions of the US Open and Masters and scoring well in the PGA Championship and at Augusta when conditions suited. Some of his key stats are 5th ON TOUR in Driving Distance, 39th ON TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Around-the-Green and 12th ON TOUR in Birdies average (Risking 0.2 units to win 9 units).
Head-to-Head Matchup
Koepka +105 over Thomas (Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units).
Byeong Hun An 100-1
It’s surprising, but the Korean continues to go under the radar both in the betting markets and for DFS enthusiasts despite the most consistent campaign imaginable. He’s missed just one cut in fifteen starts – fantastic from a youngster, and among that run has been a trio of top-10 finishes in frontline PGA TOUR events. Two of those have come in his last three starts, so confidence must be coursing through An’s veins.
Is he a major winner? Maybe not just yet, but he has already won a big event – the BMW PGA Championship in England and at this price, he’s worth a shot. Hun An ranks 3rd ON TOUR in Approaches from 100-125 yards, 15th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and 21st ON TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee (risking 0.2 units to win 20).
Top Korean
Bet365 has several propositions and the one that caught our eye regarding Byeong Hun An is “Top Korean”. Hun An is in that field against three others and he’s the overwhelming favorite at +140. In the head-to-head matchups at Pinnacle, he’s a pick’em or -106 against R. Cabrera Bello. So, instead of betting Hun An to beat Bello, we’re playing him at a better price to be the Top Korean in that quartet because he’s by far the most threatening and the vastly superior of the bunch. The second choice in that group, Si Woo Kim, had a huge win at Players but that has been followed by a lot of spotty play. It’s clear he’s not fully healthy. Therefore the wager is Byeong Hun An +140 to be the top Korean against the listed others (Risking 1 unit to win 1.4 units).
Alex Noren 60-1
While golf fans across the pond are yet to see the best of him, there really is something truly special about Alex Noren. The Swede won the BMW PGA Championship at the end of May – about as prestigious an event as the European Tour has to offer, and that was his 10th title worldwide and fifth since July 2016. Noren fired a stunning course-record 62 to claim the biggest victory of his career at that event and the way he slayed that course should not be ignored. The 34-year-old is blossoming late in his career after missing more than a year with tendinitis in the wrist in 2014, and maybe now is the time for him to break through. 10th last time on American soil at THE PLAYERS Championship, Noren truly is up there with the best on the planet right now but he’s certainly not priced like it here. (risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).
Head-to-Head Matchup
A. Noren +101 over K. Kisner (Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units).
Thomas Pieters 45-1
There’s a swagger about Thomas Pieters that suggests he might just take down a major one day and as we know, youthful exuberance could be a factor this week given the physical examination the players will face.
The Belgian offers a hefty bump off the tee and yet is surprisingly good when finesse is required, with a healthy GIR stat of 66.9% an indicator of that. His driving will set him up for the ability to go low all four days. A prolific winner on the European Tour, there is something special about Pieters. Sure, this event is in Wisconsin, but for a pro that played college golf in the Midwest, Pieters has a legit shot to win here. Thomas Pieters is a great golfer, that is widely unknown but make no mistake that he has all the tools to navigate through Erin Hills.
Head-to-Head Matchup
There are two head-to-head matchups available with Pieters but he’s in tough in both against Brandon Grace and Paul Casey so we’re going to make an unrelated bet here and call it our 2-unit Matchup of the Week at Bet365
Matthew Fitzpatrick -120 over Lee Westwood
This course figures to be tough on some of the vets when you consider the length of the course, the hills, the heat and the difficulty. Lee Westwood is 44-years old and way past his prime while Matthew Fitzpatrick is a young and talented pro with nothing but upside and a very high ceiling. Matt Fitzpatrick will be making his third U.S. Open start at Erin Hills, and seems to be below everybody’s radar. Maybe you remember him. Fitzpatrick is the guy who made the cut and collected low amateur honors at the 2013 Open Championship, who won the U.S. Amateur, and rocketed to the top of the WAGR in 2013. Even as an 18-year old, Matt Fitzpatrick had both game and guts. Fitzpatrick was briefly playing collegiate golf for the Northwestern Wildcats but the big stage called to him and he couldn’t resist. The 19-year-old from Sheffield, England packed up his sticks and left Chicago in his rearview mirror, heading for the European Tour. Fitzpatrick’s first pro victory came in 2015 at the European Masters and two more have followed. He played for the Europeans at the 2016 Ryder Cup and he won the DP World Tour Championship last November in Dubai. His best finish in a major came at the 2016 Masters when he finished T7. In other words, 2016 was a very good season for Fitzpatrick. He’s finished inside the top 20 in five of his last six starts at European Tour events, and his most recent finish at the Nordea Masters was as runner-up. He’s played three PGA TOUR events this year, most recently at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and consistently finished inside the top 20 at all three. Is he warmed up enough to convert to a top 10 finisher in Wisconsin? He just might but he’s absolutely primed to leave Westwood in the dust in this young v old mismatch.
Fitzpatrick -120 over Lee Westwood (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
Martin Kaymer 80-1
Martin Kaymer ($7,000). The German has cooled off lately (T-69, MC in last two starts) but has mostly boasted a strong year. Kaymer can pop up without warning, too and we just love the way Erin Hills could fit his unimpeachable tee-to-green game. It also helps that many shots around the green will be from short grass, by far where Kaymer has performed best on short game shots in 2017. It's rare to have so recent a winner at such high odds but Kaymer might be the most hit and miss player in the world. He has three top 10s in his last 25 majors and two of them were wins. This is a pro that is a complete wild-card but if he makes the cut and is on his game, we don’t want to be left out in the cold. Kaymer is one of the best when he’s focused and has his swag on (risking 0.2 units to win 16).
Head-to-Head Matchup
M. Kaymer -106 over B. Watson (Risking 106 units to win 1 unit).
For Fantasy Players:
We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is Jason Day.
Even though the US Open has played host to a number of surprise winners over the years, history dictates that the cream rises to the top when it comes to majors but of the big names to take their place at Erin Hills, there are drawbacks to selecting each. The birth of Dustin Johnson’s second child is imminent, and despite being the model pro (these days) that will surely have some impact on DJ taking his eye off the ball. There’s the curse of the world number one in majors too, plus the fact he will be desperate to make up for lost time after missing out at Augusta. This could prove to be fuel for the defending champion, but it’s enough for us to give him a fade this week.
Rory McIlroy hasn’t played much golf in 2017 after suffering a number of different injuries. He will be well prepped this week of course, but surely heads to Wisconsin undercooked as far as competitive golf is concerned. Jordan Spieth? Well, we just don’t know which version of him is going to turn up. All of which leads us to the forgotten man of world golf: Jason Day. The Aussie hasn’t played much golf this year either due to a variety of personal issues, but recently there has been signs of life. He missed a key putt at Byron Nelson to lose in a playoff, before finishing very nicely at the Memorial Tournament to finish T15. Day ticks the current form box. He is long enough off the tee to compete and his form this season in the final throes of holes has been excellent: Day ranks first for Strokes Gained: Around the Green and third for Sand Saves. They say that Whistling Straits is the older sibling of Erin Hills, and that track provided Day with one of the finest moments of his career, as he lifted the 2015 PGA Championship, and it is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility that he will follow up here this week.
Others worth considering:
Shane Lowry: Lowry joins Johnson, Day and Grace as the only four golfers with top 10s in each of the last two U.S. Opens. You could win some pints at your local brewpub with that knowledge and Lowry could house them for you. He led after 54 holes last year.
Branden Grace: Grace has a pair of top-five finishes in the last two years, and his ball flight is the stuff of dreams.
Aaron Rai: Making his debut among the world’s best in the second Major of the year will be Aaron Rai, the 22-year-old from Wolverhampton who has been leaping up the rankings since recording his first victory as a professional in the Glenfarclas Open on the third tier Europro Tour. Rai is now 166th in the world after winning the Barclays Kenya Open and the Andalucia Costa Del Sol Matchplay on Europe’s Challenge Tour. He’s cheap as hell and could surprise.
Justin Rose: Rose is criminally underrated, it seems, when every big event rolls around. Rose is No. 5 on the PGA Tour in approaches from 225-250 yards, and there will be plenty of those this week. Since his win at Merion in 2013, he has two top 30s and a missed cut.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The set-up: the Pirates have taken the first two of this three-game home series with the Rockies (won 7-2 on Monday & 5-2 on Tuesday) and with four straight wins, own their longest winning streak of the season (modest though it may be). The back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh added to Sunday night's 7-5 loss at Wrigley, matches Colorado's longest losing streak in 2017. Colorado scored 50 runs during a seven-game winning streak prior to its current skid but has managed only four runs in the two losses in Pittsburgh, going 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position.
The pitching matchup: German Márquez (4-3 & 4.44 ERA) starts for Colorado and Chad Kuhl (1-5 & 5.63 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Marquez won his final four starts in May (four ERs allowed for a 1.46 ERA) but he allowed six runs in five innings at San Diego on June 2, (8-5 loss), before lasting only three innings (threw 80 pitches!) in a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs on Friday. Kuhl's lone win this season came in his 2017 debut and he has not pitched beyond five innings since April 18. However, with his spot in the rotation in jeopardy, he has responded with back-to-back solid efforts in a pair of no-decisions. He allowed two runs and three hits in five innings versus Arizona on May 31 and one run and four hits at Baltimore last time out.
The pick: Colorado has scored the most runs in the National League with 344 but the Rockies have mustered just four over the first two games of this three-game series. Like Kuhl, Márquez's spot in the rotation is hardly assured, as Tyler Anderson and Jon Gray are both closing in on their returns for Colorado. Marquez looks shaky at best after throwing 80 pitches in just three innings in his last start, while Kuhl owns a 3.72 ERA over his last four starts and is coming off one of his best outings of the season. The Pirates get the sweep.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Typically, when I see a pitcher with a 3-0 team start record, but a 9.00 ERA and 1.750 WHIP over the same time, I think "fade." But in the case of Toronto's Francisco Liriano, those numbers are a tad bit misleading. They include one start - 5.10 vs. Cleveland - where he allowed seven runs in just two innings. He went on the DL shortly thereafter and in the two starts since his return, he's been much better, allowing just six runs (five earned) in 10 IP. This line being steamed in Toronto's direction was fairly eye-opening to me.
It's not as if the Rays' starter, Jake Odorizzi, comes in displaying fine form. He has a 1.84 WHIP his L3 starts, although like Liriano much of that can be tied to one poor outing (where he was charged w/ five unearned runs). But one worrisome factor w/ Odorizzi is the home run ball. He's allowed one in eight consecutive starts and going back to last year, 16 of his last 17 starts. While he's fared well in two starts against the Jays this year, note both were at Tropicana Field. In seven career starts at Rogers Centre, his ERA is 4.54. As a team, Tampa Bay is just 14-17 on the road this season.
At no point this season have the Rays been more than three games above or below .500. That could change after tonight, if they were to win. But odds are NOT in their favor even after an 8-1 win last night. Typically when we see a home team lose by that kind of margin, they bounce back the following day, provided they are the favorite.
Zack Cimini
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Colorado
Thursday there is value to be had on the Rockies. The home team Pirates are aiming to complete a series sweep as Andrew McCutcheon continues to ignite the Pirates. Pitching for the Rockies is German Marquez whom has struggled in consecutive outings. Marquez lasted just three innings in his last start and gave up six runs prior to the Padres. Still, grab the slight road favorite in the Rockies here.
Larry Ness
Baltimore at Chicago
Pick: Baltimore
The Orioles have lost the first two of this four-game series in Chicago against the White Sox and have now lost six in a row and eight of their last 10. They led the AL East on May 20 but are now fourth at 31-32. Baltimore is in an extended slump, as they've lost 22 of their last 31 games and have been outscored 60-17 during its six-game losing skid. Chicago has rebounded from a 2-9 stretch by winning three of its last four but at 28-35, resides in last place in the AL Central.
Dylan Bundy (6-5, 3.05 ERA) takes the mound for Baltimore and Miguel Gonzalez (4-7, 4.89 ERA) for Chicago. Bundy allowed just three runs on five hits in six innings at the New York Yankees last Friday but took the 8-2 loss. That dropped him to 1-4 over his last five outings but Bundy's ERA over his last four is a respectable 3.24. Bundy is 2-0 in three games (two starts / won both) with a 3.21 ERA against Chicago. Gonzalez has struggled for a longer stretch than Bundy, checking in with a 1-7 mark and a 6.56 ERA in his last eight starts.
Gonzalez began his career with Baltimore (2012-2015) and this marks his third career start against the Orioles. He's 0-2 with a 3.55 ERA against his former team. No denying that the Orioles are suffering an 'ugly' stretch but I kinda like Bundy and Gonzalez is a mess. Take Baltimore to grab a rare win.
Brandon Lee
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1.5
Texas might look like a decent play here as a big dog with Andrew Cashner facing off against youngster Francis Martes making his first career start. However, I feel the value is with Houston on the run line for a decent return on our investment. While this will technically be Martes first start, he threw 78 pitches in relief last Friday. He wasn't great in the 3 2/3 innings, but nerves certainly played a part in it. Keep in mind this is the Astros top pitching prospect, so there's plenty of talent there. I look for the offense to try and do their part to get this kid a win his debut and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they threw up a big number here. Houston just faced Cashner in Texas back on 6/3 and roughed him up for 5 runs on 11 hits in 6 innings.
Ray Monohan
Braves / Nationals Under 9.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Nationals and the Braves face off on Wednesday and although the first two games have been high scoring I really like the under play in this one. This game features two pitchers who are coming into this game off a good start in their last game. On the mound for the Braves is Julio Teheran. In his last start he went six innings against the Mets only giving up four hits and one run. Although I expect him to give up some runs I think he will keep the Braves in this game.
On the mound for the Nationals is Tanner Roark. He has a 6-3 record and an ERA of 3.87. He has done a good job going deep into games and that should really help the Nationals in this one. Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 overall. Under is 8-1-1 in Nationals last 10 home games. Under is 4-1 in Roarks last 5 home starts vs. Braves.
Teddy Davis
Royals vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½
I cashed a premium winner the Over last night in this game and will head back to it again. The Royals are swinging some hot bats right now as their total as gone over 4 straight games and 7 of their last 8. While the Giants bats haven cold I see them picking it up today as Hammel has been handing out batting practice all year.
Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.43 ERA. He has been even worse on the road yet to record a win and has a 6.43 ERA. He is also 0-3 lifetime against the Giants.
Cueto is a good pitcher no doubt, but in his 12 start this year the total has gone over 8 times. At home he is also 3-1 favoring the Over.
Chase Diamond
Seattle at Minnesota
Play: Seattle +125
This game features the Seattle Mariners at the Minnesota Twins. Mariners can not be happy after giving up 21 runs last night to the Twins but tonight's game should be polar opposite low scoring and the Mariners are getting some nice plus money despite having a better team. Ervin Santana has been down right amazing going 8-3 with a 2.20 ERA I was thinking all year he'd want to get his numbers good so he could be traded but the Twins look like contenders. Sam Gavigilo goes for the Mariners he is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA I think he is undervalued here and the Mariners should come out looking for revenge from yesterday.
Doc's Sports
Yankees vs. Angels
Play: Yankees -137
Angel Stadium is the site of the matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday, June 14, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Michael Pineda for the Yankees and Matt Shoemaker for the Angels.
New York opens at -125 while Los Angeles opens at +115. The Yankees have a 35-26-0 over/under record and a 40-21-0 run line mark. The Angels are 35-29-0 against the run line and have a 29-34-1 over/under record.
Valuable New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 35-26-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 40-21-0 against the run line
Important Los Angeles Angels Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Angels are 29-34-1 against the over/under
The Los Angeles Angels are 35-29-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Yankees have a 38-23 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Michael Pineda has a 7-3 record with an earned run average of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.13. He has 75 strikeouts over his 71.2 innings pitched and he's given up 64 hits. He allows 8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.17. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.88 and they have given up 137 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .194 against the bullpen and they've struck out 214 hitters and walked 74 batters. As a team, New York allows 7.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 2nd in the league in team earned run average at 3.55. The Yankees pitchers collectively have given up 469 base hits and 216 earned runs. They have allowed 70 home runs this season, ranking them 23rd in the league. New York as a pitching staff has walked 176 batters and struck out 561. They have walked 2.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.18 and their FIP as a unit is 3.78.
Hitting Statistics
As a team New York is hitting .275, good for 1st in the league. The Yankees hold a .475 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .353, which is good for 1st in baseball. They rank 1st in MLB with 9.7 hits per game. Starlin Castro is hitting .328 with an on-base percentage of .365. He has 81 hits this season in 247 at bats with 41 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .530 and an OPS+ of 133. Aaron Judge is hitting .347 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .453. He has totaled 74 hits and he has driven in 49 men in 213 at bats. His OPS+ is 205 while his slugging percentage is at .728. The Yankees have 589 hits, including 104 doubles and 103 home runs. New York has walked 245 times so far this season and they have struck out 538 times as a unit. They have left 454 men on base and have a team OPS of .827. They score 5.87 runs per contest and have scored a total of 358 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Los Angeles has a 33-34 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.22, Matt Shoemaker has a 6-3 record and a 1.26 WHIP. He has 67 strikeouts over the 74.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 67 hits. He allows 8.1 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 4.96. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.75 and they have given up 191 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .229 against the Angels bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 242 batters and walked 74 opposing hitters. As a team, Los Angeles allows 8.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. They are 12th in the league in team earned run average at 4.1. The Angels pitchers as a team have surrendered 557 base knocks and 272 earned runs this season. They have given up 94 home runs this year, which ranks 2nd in Major League Baseball. Los Angeles as a staff has walked 199 hitters and struck out 567 batters. They give up a walk 3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.5 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.27 while their FIP as a staff is 4.36.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .239, good for 26th in the league. The Angels hold a .382 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .316, which is good for 21st in baseball. They rank 27th in MLB with 8.0 hits per contest. Andrelton Simmons comes into this matchup batting .277 with an OBP of .335. He has 69 hits this year along with 28 RBI in 249 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .406 with an OPS+ of 102. Yunel Escobar is hitting .278 this season and he has an OBP of .336. He has collected 54 hits in 194 at bats while driving in 18 runs. He has an OPS+ of 104 and a slugging percentage of .412. The Angels as a unit have 539 base hits, including 96 doubles and 72 homers. Los Angeles has walked 230 times this year and they have struck out on 499 occasions. They have had 445 men left on base and have an OPS of .699. They have scored 4.24 runs per game and totaled 284 runs this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego -128
I really like the value here with San Diego as a short home favorite in Wednesday's afternoon series finale against Cincinnati. The Reds have cooled off from their hot start and after yesterday's 2-6 loss, they are now 0-5 on their short 6-game west coast road trip. They just aren't hitting and don't have the pitching to win games without putting up a lot of runs. They have scored just 5 runs combined in the first two games of this series against the Padres and I look for them to struggle again. San Diego will send out Jhoulys Chacin, who is 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in 6 home starts.
You also have to factor in the Padres are clicking offensively right now, scoring 15 runs on 26 hits in their last two games. They will face Cincinnati's Amir Garrett, who is 3-5 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 10 starts and hasn't been getting better, as he owns an awful 17.65 ERA and 2.422 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Dennis Macklin
Cincinnati at San Diego
Play: San Diego -128
The Reds are 0-5 on this road trip and send Amir Garrett to the mound with his 7.40 ERA in 10 starts which is actually 17.65 over his last three starts where he has lasted a grand total of 8 2/3 innings giving up 16 hits (including 8 home runs yikes) and five walks. Jhoulys Chacin has been nails at Petco Park and is 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA for a 26-40 Friar outfit. If form holds this looks to be one of the better bets on the board and you can't beat the 28 cent price.
Jack Jones
Mariners vs. Twins
Play: Twins -131
The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in baseball at 33-28 on the season. And now they send their ace to the mound in Ervin Santana and we're getting a very fair price with them against the Seattle Mariners.
Ervin Santana is putting up Cy Young-like numbers to this point. He has gone 8-3 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 13 starts. He is coming off a complete game shutout in a 4-0 win at San Francisco his last time out.
Sam Gaviglio has pitched well in only five starts for the Mariners this season. But he hasn't fared well on the road, going 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in his two starts away from home.
The Mariners are 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Twins are 7-1 in Santana's last eight starts vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle is 2-7 in its last nine road games vs. a right-handed starter.
ASA
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Braves +1½
The Braves are offering a lot of line value here at the short price on the run line. Getting the +1.5 runs is a big edge considering that Atlanta is only 6-8 on the money line since May 31st but 9-5 on the run line at +1.5 runs in those 14 games. We do expect the upset win for the Braves here but should they fall short the +1.5 could definitely come in handy. Washington is only 5-6 on the money line in their last 11 games and on the run line at -1.5 runs in those 11 games the Nationals record is only 3-8 as two of the five wins have come by just a single run. The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark for this one and he has given up 16 hits (with 3 homers included) in his last 2 starts. Roark also gave up 2 homers the last time he faced the Braves. Julio Teheran will be toeing the rubber for Atlanta in this one and he has produced quality starts in 3 of his last 4 outings. In those three Teheran outings he has given up only 4 earned runs in 18 and 1 / 3 innings. Look for his strong run to continue here as the Braves have won each of his last three starts and the Nationals are over-priced considering they had lost 4 straight games prior to yesterday's win.