DAVE COKIN
MARLINS AT PADRES
PLAY: OVER 8.5
If you’re looking for what projects as a bottom of the barrel starting pitcher matchup, Justin Nicolino vs. Luis Perdomo fits the bill.
Nicolino has actually been a little better than I expected for the Marlins. That’s really not saying much, however. He’s a pitch to contact type with a very low K rate. Nicolino is generating only a 13.8% soft contact rate, so I think it’s fair to say that even with a .328 BABIP, he’s perhaps getting a bit fortunate. The one mystery to me is that Nicolino has actually been racking uno some strikeouts lately. He’s recorded 20 in his last four starts, covering 21.2 innings. But he has also surrendered 35 hits in that stretch, so with his normal K rate, it’s fair to offer he might be getting blown up.
Luis Perdomo has been hit very hard, and he’s really only starting because the Padres are woefully short on starting pitchers. In effect, the Padres have lost four projected starters, three to injury and one in a trade. So Perdomo, who had not even gotten as far as AA ball in the Cardinals organization, is now a starting pitcher for San Diego. The results have not been surprising.
It certainly would appear as though the offenses for these two teams have the advantage today. That’s amplified by the fact the rather impotent Friars have actually been raking against lefties this season. It’s a day game at Petco, which helps as the ball generally carries better in the afternoon than the evening at this ballpark. As for the weather, it’s going to apparently be on the cool side on Wednesday, but whatever breeze should be heading out to right according the forecast.
I would expect runs to be fairly plentiful in this game, with either or both starting pitchers good candidates to get blown up. The oddsmakers never make it easy, as the number here is 8.5 with juice. But I see this one having a very good chance to get to double figures, so I’ll go Marlins-Padres Over for the Wednesday free play.
Mike Lundin
Seattle at Tampa Bay
Play: Seattle +111
The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight of their past 10 after an 8-7 win against the Seattle Mariners last night. I like the Mariners to rebound with a win to tie the series Wednesday night.
Drew Smyly (2-7, 4.94) will take the ball for the Rays, and he has struggled lately. The left-hander has surrendered a total of 17 runs and 25 hits in 15 innings in his last three starts and had his last start skipped to give him a mental break. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 6-4 loss at Seattle on May 10 and odds are he'll get hit hard once again.
The Mariners turn to Nathan Karns (5-2, 4.09 ERA) who held Cleveland to one run on a pair of hits in 4 1/3 innings. He has struggled with his command lately with 10 walks in his last two starts, but Tampa Bay is not a team that draws a lot of walks and its .313 on base percentage ranks in the bottom third of the major leagues. Karns will make his first start against the team he spent the last two seasons with.
Rays are 1-4 in Smyly's five starts at the Trop this year, Mariners are 5-1 in Karns' six road starts.
Marc Lawrence
Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers +159
Edges - Tigers: Mike Pelfrey 3.86 ERA away as opposed to 6.61 ERA at home this season. White Sox: Chris Sale: 1-3 with 6.76 ERA last four overall team starts. With all three of Sale’s 13 team start losses this season coming at the hands of A.L. Central division foes, and Sale off a phony ‘inside-out’ win over Kansas City in his most recent start last Friday in which he hurled 6 innings while allowing 12 batters on base in a 7-5 victory, we’ll back the big ugly dog here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Martin Griffiths
France vs. Albania
Play: France -1½
France made heavy weather of beating Romania in the first game, maybe it was nerves, maybe it was pressure, who knows, but they did not play to the standard that the talent they have at their disposal warrants.
Albania did far better against Switzerland than most people thought, especially when they were reduced to ten men and they will not be the walkovers that most probably expect.
That said, they are playing France, the host side, a team full of world class talent and a team who are probably more settled now they have the first game out of the way.
If the French players play to their full potential then they would beat Albania easily and I do expect them to play to their talents this evening.
I take France to win, they are clearly the better side and they will probably cover the spread which is set at 1.5 goals.
I expect Albania to give a good account of themselves, but sometimes they play against a team that is simply better than them and that is what will happen tonight in Marseille.
I take France to cover the spread.
Scott Spreitzer
Yankees vs. Rockies
Play: Yankees -108
New York scored 10 runs and lost on Tuesday but the Yankees should score plenty of runs again to win against Colorado's Chad Bettis today. The right-hander has been pummeled to the tune of 22 runs and 32 hits in only 16 1/3 innings his last four starts. Bettis escaped with a no-decision as the Rockies beat Pittsburgh 11-5 in his last outing. Colorado lost his three previous appearances by a combined score of 25-14 and Bettis is 1-2 with a 6.41 ERA at home this season. Ivan Nova has lasted at least six innings his last five starts and has walked just nine batters in 55 1/3 innings. The Yankees have won 11 of Nova's last 12 interleague starts. Colorado heads into Wednesday 17-17 on the road but just 14-16 at home.
Bob Harvey
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Indians -131
The top two teams in the American League Central division square off in Kansas City where the Royals host the first-place Cleveland Indians. First pitch is slated for 8:15 PM EST at Kauffman Stadium where the pitching matchup features Corey Kluber toiling for Cleveland (35-29, 31-33 RL) and Ian Kennedy working for KC with has won four straight overall including the first two games of the series.
The Royals (34-30, 35-29 RL) have won eight in a row at home to improve to 21-7. Salvador Perez smacked a two run homer in Tuesday’s 3-2 victory and is now 12 for 24 in his last six games. However the KC backstop is just 4 for 25 (.160)
Indians RH Corey Kluber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) vs. Royals RH Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06)
Kluber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) registered his second complete game of the season on Friday after permitting two runs and three hits in a 6-2 triumph over the Los Angeles Angels. Since starting the year 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA, Kluber has rebounded with four victories in his last five outings. Included in that run is a dazzling effort against versus Kansas City on June 5 in which Kluber scattered two hits and struck out six in as many innings of a 7-0 victory.
Kennedy (4-5, 4.06) fell to 0-3 in his last six outings following a less than stellar effort against the Chicago White Sox on Friday. Kennedy, who has surrendered 11 home runs in his last six appearances, served up four gopher balls in a 7-5 loss to the Chisox. Kennedy yielded two blasts and five runs in a 7-1 setback against Cleveland on June 4, a markedly different performance than when he scattered four hits over seven frames in a 7-0 rout of the Indians on May 7.
The home team has won eight of the nine contests in the season series.
Brad Diamond
Brewers vs. Giants
Play: Giants -207
The Giants (40-26) jump back in against the Brewers (30-35) out in the Golden Gate area this afternoon. SF has won 4 straight, the Brewers losers of back-to-back games. The Giants have a 6 game lead in first place over LA in the West. Milwaukee's season is almost over considering they are 15 games back to the Cubs in the NLC. Recently, the Giants show 13-3 against Milwaukee, 8-1 in San Francisco. In addition, SF formulates another major edge of 8-0 with RHP Cueto (9-1, 2.16) against losing units. Milwaukee is trying to rebound Wednesday with RHP Nelson, but he is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA last three times out. And, the Brewers with the hurler are 0-6 versus >.500 units.
Jim Feist
Indians at Royals
Pick: Under
A pair of strong arms and strong defensive teams clash in the AL Central. The Indians are 33-16-5 under the total away vs a team with a winning record. 30-year old Corey Kuber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) goes here, throwing great allowing 71 hits in 88+ innings and 87 Ks. The team is 4-1 in his last five starts, off 6-2 win over the Angels, throwing 9 innings allowing hits with 8 strikeouts. He has struck out 8 or more batters in 6 straight starts. Cleveland is 42-14-3 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Kansas City has great bullpen depth and starter Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06 ERA) has been great at home with a 1.46 ERA. Kansas City is 6-1-1 under the total against a team with a winning record.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles at Arizona
Pick: Arizona +1.5
The Dodgers have split their first two games of this series in Arizona, but despite a sub .500 road record, they are heavy favorite in the rubber match. Nobody likes to bet against Clayton Kershaw, but the Dodgers ace has a history of struggling here in Arizona. Kershaw (9-1, 1.52 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits, striking out 13 in a 3-2 win at San Francisco his last time out. He's just 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA in his last four starts at Chase Field. The D'Backs are batting .265 over a combined 136 at bats in previous meetings with Kershaw. That's better than their team batting average against the rest of the major leagues so far this season. The D'Backs hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, who has shown flashes of brilliance in recent starts. Corbin (3-5, 4.81 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits, striking out six in 6 1/3 innings in an 8-6 home loss to Miami his last time out. He's 0-4 with a 7.53 ERA in six starts at home this season, but he's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Dodgers. Jean Segura is swinging a hot bat of late. He was 4-for-4 last night, and he's batting .327 at home this season.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. San Diego
Pick: Miami
The Marlins scored five times in the top of the first inning in last night's win at PETCO, and they may get off to another fast start here in the series finale Wednesday afternoon. The Padres turn to a struggling pitcher, and their defense hasn't done them any favors either. San Diego's fielding percentage of .981 ranks 28th in the major leagues.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - With Tyson Ross on the DL and James Shields traded to Chicago, 23 year old right-hander Luis Perdomo is getting a shot in the rotation. So far it's been nothing short of a disaster, as he's conceded 10 runs on 18 hits over 10 innings in two starts since coming out of the bullpen. He wasn't exactly effective as a reliever either, posting an ERA of 10.17 in nine appearances in the month of April.
2. San Diego's Bullpen - The Padres relief pitchers have posted an ERA of 4.68 so far this season. The only two teams that rank worse are Cincinnati and Texas, and at least they have the excuse of pitching in a hitter's park.
3. X-Factor - The Marlins Martin Prado is batting .333 so far this season (3rd in the National League), and he was 2-for-5 last night.
Larry Ness
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Cleveland Indians
The Kansas City Royals beat the Cleveland Indians 2-1 on Monday and 3-2 on Tuesday, setting up a three-game sweep opportunity tonight at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have won four in a row after snapping an eight-game losing streak this past Saturday. Tonight’s pitching matchup features 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (6-6, 3.65 ERA) up against Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06 ERA). Kluber has been much better this year away from home, going 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in seven road starts (team is 4-3). He threw a complete-game to beat the Angels 6-2 in his previous start, allowing two runs on three hits, while striking out eight and walking one.
Ian Kennedy gave up a career-high four HRs and allowed seven runs in a 7-5 loss Friday to the Chicago White Sox. He has now lost his past three decisions and has not won since May 7 when he won at Cleveland, a span of six starts (Royals are 3-3).
Kennedy allowed two HRs and five runs in a 7-1 setback against Cleveland on June 4, a markedly different performance than when he scattered four hits over seven innings in a 7-0 rout of the Indians on May 7. Over his six-start winless stretch, Kennedy has allowed 11 HRs. However, Kennedy does own a 1.46 ERA in four starts this season at Kauffman Stadium.
Kluber has turned around his 2016 season after a disastrous 0-3 start with a 6.16 ERA. He’s 4-1 over his last five outings, posting a 1.53 ERA in the four wins. That stretch includes a dominating performance vs Kansas City on June 5 in which he scattered two hits and struck out six in as many innings of a 7-0 victory. NO sweep here!
Scott Rickenbach
Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +1½
A lot of line value here as the Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is off of a tough start and that is being given way too much weight here. Before his rough start against the Nationals, Hellickson had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts! In these outings, the Phillies right-hander compiled a 2.89 ERA while striking out 36 in 37 and 1/3 innings. Hellickson has good "stuff" as that is why he has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning this season. He's had success against the majority of the Blue Jays hitters he'll be facing today and he's given up only 6 earned runs in his last 4 home starts. Toronto will have Marco Estrada on the mound. He has been phenomenal this season but his ERA is more than a run and a half higher on the road compared to at home. Also, the Blue Jays righty has given up 8 homers in his last 8 starts and the Phillies can be dangerous when they get the home run ball going at home. With their win yesterday the Jays improved to 6-5 in their last 11 games but 3 of those victories came by a single run meaning that at a -1.5 on the run line, the Blue Jays would be on a 3-8 run. Considering that as well as the short price on the Phillies with +1.5 runs here and you have a situation that is certainly worth investing in here.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals -136
I believe this game means a lot more to the Nationals than it does the Cubs. Washington desperately wants to win this series after getting swept in a 4-game series at Chicago earlier this season, while the Cubs could be looking ahead to a return home after a 9-game road trip, which they have already secured a winning record on. Chicago also knows they have two huge series on deck with 3 against the Pirates and then 3 against the Cardinals.
Not only is Washington going to be the more motivated team, I give them the advantage here on the mound, as they send out Stephen Strasburg against Jason Hammel. While Hammel has a strong 2.36 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in 12 starts, he's pitching over his head right now. I believe it's only a matter of time before he comes back to reality and he showed signs of that last time out, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits (2 HR's) in just 5 2/3 innings at Atlanta.
Strasburg is 10-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts and the Nationals have won all 7 of his home starts in 2016. He's struck out 10 a piece in each of his last 2 starts and has a 11.51 K/9 on the season. Cubs hitters have been prone to the strikeout of late, including 28 k's over the first two games of this series.
Nationals are 7-2 in their last 9 following a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 starts against a team with a winning record.
John Ryan
Marlins vs. Padres
Play: Padres +105
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match and/or support the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Marlins are 2-5 in Nicolinos last 7 starts. Marlins are 1-5 in Nicolinos last 6 starts on grass. Marlins are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in San Diego.
Fundamental Discussion Points Nicolino has pitched more than six innings just once this season back in April. He's 0-3 over his last seven starts and was hit hard by Arizona in his last turn, when he gave up season highs in runs (five) and hits (12) while receiving a no-decision. Nicolino will continue to struggle and help the Padres stop their losing streak.
Wunderdog
Texas @ Oakland
Pick: Texas +128
Texas is tough, with a top 10 offense in runs and slugging, plus a pitching staff that has been impressive (#11 in team ERA). Texas has a winning road record after pummeling Oakland 10-6 last night. The Rangers are on an 18-6 run, including 11-3 in division play. The team is also 17-8 when lefty Derek Holland gets four days of rest. They face an Oakland team on an 8-15 run, with an offense ranked #24 in runs, #26 in on base percentage and #20 in slugging. The pitching staff is worse, #27 in team ERA (4.72). Sonny Gray (3-6. 5.34 ERA) goes here, opening the season as the expected ace, but he's been all over the place, with the A's losing six of his last seven starts. With the Athletics are 4-12 at home against a team with a winning road record, jump on the road again and back Texas.