Free Picks for Wednesday, June 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -134
Justin Verlander hasn’t won in over a month, and he continues to have big problems with walks. JV is now at 42 for the season, and has issued 12 free passes in just 14 innings over his last three starts.
I’m a little wary about James Paxton here to be honest, as he has not been remotely close to his best lately, and I don’t like the velocity drop. But Verlander’s awful numbers on the road and Paxton’s strong data at home is a plus.
Most importantly, the Tigers are about as pure fade as it gets right now, as they’re a team in disarray, yet it doesn’t seem to be showing up to much extent in the betting line.
Seattle bullpen scenario isn’t the best as I don’t think there’s any chance Diaz is available tonight. But Vincent can close if necessary and the Tigers pen remains a cesspool.
I’m willing to stay on the Mariners.
Scott Rickenbach
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Cincinnati +129
The Reds almost rallied for the win yesterday but fell short, 6-5. They did outhit the Rays again (13-8 yesterday) and lets not forget they got the upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday. As bad as the Reds road record is this season they have outplayed the Rays so far in this series and they have the decided pitching edge here. Tim Adleman has rounded into form (to say the least!) as he has a 2.25 ERA in his last 6 starts and has given up only 20 hits in the 32 innings spanning his last 6 starts. As for Tampa, they'll have Erasmo Ramirez on the mound here and he has been heading the other direction. The right-hander has given up 19 earned runs on 32 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 4 starts. Cincinnati has averaged 10.5 hits per game in their last 4 games. TB has averaged only 8.4 hits per game in their last 7 games. Underdog value here absolutely makes the road dog worth a look in this one.
Ben Burns
White Sox vs. Twins
Play: Under 10
Recent form from these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a bit of a pitchers duel on our hands in this one. Chicago hands the ball to David Holmberg (1-0, 2.63 ERA) who will be given another start in the rotation after Miguel Gonzalez was sent to the DL. Last Thursday Holmberg looked sharp in allowing just one run off four hits with one walk while striking out three over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against Baltimore (through 27.1 innings of work, Holmberg has posted a 2.63 ERA and minuscule 0.88 WHIP). Jose Berrios (6-1, 2.74) enters off a gem against Seattle on Thursday, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out six and walking one over eight innings (to go along with his 2.74 ERA, Berrios also owns a sparkling 0.96 WHIP and 45:14 K:BB through 46 innings). With both of these staters coming into this one on top form, I’ll recommend a second look at the under.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Braves
Play: Giants -128
Edges - Giants: Samardzija 3-1 last four away team starts during June, and 69 Ks with only 3 BBs last nine overall starts… Braves: 2-7 home Game Three of a series this season. With Braves hurler Sean Newcomb winless (0-2) in his MLB career team starts, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Jack Jones
Houston at Oakland
Play: Oakland +111
The Oakland A's just swept the Yankees in four games at home. They have been a sneaky good home bet this season at 22-15 on the year and +7.6 units of profit. They are consistently home dogs with great value, which is the case again today against the Astros.
The A's clearly have the edge on the mound today with Sean Manaea, who is 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 12 starts with 73 K's in 67 1/3 innings. Manaea has owned the Astros, posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in five career starts against them.
Mike Fiers is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven road starts. Fiers has never beaten the A's, going 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in six career starts against them.
The Astros are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. The A's are 6-0 in Manaea's last six starts. Houston is 1-5 in Fiers' last six starts vs. Oakland. Oakland is 7-0 in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more HR's/start this season.
Will Rogers
Toronto vs Texas
Pick: Toronto
The set-up: Toronto won the first of this four-game series with Texas 7-6 on Monday but Texas bounced back with a 6-1 win last night with Adrian Beltre hitting his 447th career HR to move into a tie with Detroit's Miguel Cabrera (1,585) for 35th place on the all-time RBI list. The Rangers won for the eighth in 11 games and speaking of 'eights,' Toronto failed to reach the .500 mark for the eighth time this season. "We've got a good team," Blue Jays utilityman Steve Pearce told reporters after the loss. "We'll get over the hump. It's just a matter of time." We'll see.
The pitching matchup: Joe Biagini (1-6 & 4.26 ERA) gets the nod for Toronto and Tyson Ross (1-0 & 3.18 ERA) for Texas. Biagini is filling the rotation spot of the injured Aaron Sanchez but s 0-5 over his last six starts (Jays are 1-5). He was torched for seven runs (six earned) aon eight hits in one-plus innings against the Chicago White Sox in his last outing and Toronto sits 3-5 in his eight starting assignments this season. He lost to the Rangers on May 28, when he allowed two runs and seven hits over six frames (3.00 ERA), in his only previous starts against Texas. Ross won his Texas debut on Friday, when he allowed two runs and two hits in 5 2/3 innings versus Seattle. He is trying to regain the 13-victory form he displayed with San Diego in 2014 after pitching just once last season due to shoulder issues and then having thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in the off-season. Ross' lone career start against Toronto came in 2012, when he gave up three runs and five hits over 5 2/3 frames of a loss while with Oakland (4.36 ERA).
The pick: Ross surprised in his first appearance since the season opener in 2016 with the San Diego Padres, so it's more than fair to say, "the jury is still out." The Rangers are back at .500 (35-35) after snapping a two-game losing streak, a standard remains elusive for the Blue Jays for the 34-36 Blue Jays, so far. However, the play here is for Toronto to win and get yet another chance to reach .500 in Thursday's series finale.
Jim Feist
Cardinals at Phillies
Pick: Under
St. Louis is not a strong offensive team, #26 in runs scored. Michael Wacha has excellent stuff, with a 60-26 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 innings. Philadelphia is one of the worst offensive team in baseball, #29 in runs, #27 in on-base percentage. Philadelphia is on a 6-2-3 run under the total and when these teams clash the under is 5-2.
John Martin
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -122
The Cincinnati Reds are just 1-10 in their last 11 games overall. Despite that fact, they continue to get respect from oddsmakers. I like the Rays here as only -122 home favorites in this early 12:10 EST start time Wednesday. Erasmo Ramirez has gone 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in four home starts this year. Tim Adleman is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA in five road starts for the Reds. Cincinnati is 0-8 in road games after having lost three of its last four games this season. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games. The Rays are 41-13 in their last 54 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in Ramirez's last five home starts
Doc's Sports
Houston at Oakland
Play: Oakland +113
The Houston Astros visit O.co Coliseum on Wednesday, June 21, 2017 to play the Oakland Athletics. The probable starters are Mike Fiers for the Astros and Sean Manaea for the Athletics.
The opening line for this matchup has Houston at -125 and Oakland at +115. The Astros have a 34-31-6 over/under record and a 41-30-0 run line mark. The Athletics are 36-34-0 against the run line and have a 39-29-2 over/under record.
Valuable Houston Astros Betting Trends
The Houston Astros are 34-31-6 against the over/under
The Houston Astros are 41-30-0 against the run line
Important Oakland Athletics Betting Trends
The Oakland Athletics are 39-29-2 against the over/under
The Oakland Athletics are 36-34-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Astros have a 47-24 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Mike Fiers has a 4-2 record with an earned run average of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.36. He has 62 strikeouts over his 72 innings pitched and he's given up 73 hits. He allows 9.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.78. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.87 and they have given up 191 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .213 against the bullpen and they've struck out 310 hitters and walked 84 batters. As a team, Houston allows 7.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. They are 3rd in the league in team earned run average at 3.65. The Astros pitchers collectively have given up 547 base hits and 260 earned runs. They have allowed 84 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Houston as a pitching staff has walked 214 batters and struck out 721. They have walked 3 men per 9 innings while striking out 10.1 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.19 and their FIP as a unit is 3.70.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Houston is hitting .279, good for 1st in the league. The Astros hold a .476 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .346, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.6 hits per game. Carlos Correa is hitting .300 with an on-base percentage of .377. He has 75 hits this season in 250 at bats with 43 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .516 and an OPS+ of 145. Jose Altuve is hitting .326 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .397. He has totaled 87 hits and he has driven in 34 men in 267 at bats. His OPS+ is 155 while his slugging percentage is at .528. The Astros have 681 hits, including 135 doubles and 112 home runs. Houston has walked 228 times so far this season and they have struck out 485 times as a unit. They have left 481 men on base and have a team OPS of .822. They score 5.39 runs per contest and have scored a total of 383 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Oakland has a 31-39 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 4.01, Sean Manaea has a 6-3 record and a 1.11 WHIP. He has 73 strikeouts over the 67.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 49 hits. He allows 6.5 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.69. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.98 and they have given up 229 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .251 against the Athletics bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 226 batters and walked 91 opposing hitters. As a team, Oakland allows 8.8 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings. They are 24th in the league in team earned run average at 4.79. The Athletics pitchers as a team have surrendered 602 base knocks and 327 earned runs this season. They have given up 85 home runs this year, which ranks 17th in Major League Baseball. Oakland as a staff has walked 227 hitters and struck out 559 batters. They give up a walk 3.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.2 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.35 while their FIP as a staff is 4.37.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .241, good for 27th in the league. The Athletics hold a .428 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .309, which is good for 26th in baseball. They rank 28th in MLB with 8.1 hits per contest. Jed Lowrie comes into this matchup batting .287 with an OBP of .358. He has 74 hits this year along with 25 RBI in 258 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .484 with an OPS+ of 129. Yonder Alonso is hitting .301 this season and he has an OBP of .395. He has collected 58 hits in 193 at bats while driving in 37 runs. He has an OPS+ of 174 and a slugging percentage of .622. The Athletics as a unit have 564 base hits, including 130 doubles and 98 homers. Oakland has walked 222 times this year and they have struck out on 651 occasions. They have had 448 men left on base and have an OPS of .737. They have scored 4.27 runs per game and totaled 299 runs this season.
Dave Price
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -103
I like the price we are getting with the Texas Rangers at basically even money at home here against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rangers are heating up, going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. They have scored at least 5 runs in 8 of those 11 contests. Tyson Ross was sharp in his first and only start this year, giving up 2 runs and 2 hits over 5 2/3 innings of a 10-4 win over Seattle. Joe Biagini is 1-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 8 starts this year for the Blue Jays, and 0-2 with a 5.12 ERA in 4 road starts. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Biagini's last 4 starts. The Rangers are 12-3 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Larry Ness
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis -123
The final read 8-1 one but note that the Cards needed a seven-run 11th inning to beat the Phillies in Tuesday's 8-1 triumph. St Louis has now outscored Philadelphia 24-8 en route to winning all four encounters this season, which should come as much of a surprise. The Philadelphia offense hasn't been doing much of anything of late with just 31 runs scored in losing 12 of its last 13 contests. The Phillies check in at 22-47, owners of MLB's worst overall record.
The Cards are a modest 32-37 but with no team separating itself in the NL Central, St Louis finds itself just four games out of first. Michael Wacha (3-3, 4.78 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards. Wacha has posted a 1-2 mark with a bloated 8.86 ERA in his last five starts (Cards are 1-4) and on the season, St Louis is 4-8 in his starts. He has been battling both fatigue and opponents with not much success this season. Wacha is 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four career starts vs the Phillies.
Nick Pivetta (1-3, 4.46 ERA) out-dueled Chris Sale in his last encounter, recording career highs in strikeouts (nine) and innings worked (seven) while scattering four hits in a hard-luck no-decision against Boston on Thursday. However, it marked the first time in seven starts that the rookie ventured past the fifth inning. Pivetta faced St Louis two starts ago (June 10), allowing four ERs over five innings of a 7-0 loss.
The pick: I noted Wacha's current poor run at the top but will now add that his lone win in that stretch was a strong outing against Philadelphia, when he permitted just two runs on five hits in six innings. to improve to 2-2 in his career versus the club. The Cards have a team they can beat and do just that in this one.
Rocketman
San Diego at Chicago
Play: Chicago -1½
The San Diego Padres travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon. San Diego is 28-44 SU overall this year while the Chicago Cubs come in with a 36-34 SU overall record on the season. Miguel Diaz is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA overall this year and 0-0 with a 10.81 ERA on the road this season. Eddie Butler is 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA at home this year. San Diego is scoring only 3.6 runs per game overall this year, 3.6 runs per game on the road this season, 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.6 runs per game on grass and 3.2 runs per game in day games. San Diego is allowing 5.4 runs per game on the road this year and 5.9 runs per game in day games this season. Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.3 runs per game while allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line today!
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Play: Cincinnati +113
I really like the value here with Cincinnati as a short road dog against the Rays. The Reds have been red-hot at the plate, scoring 19 runs over their last 3 games and will be in a great spot to keep the offense rolling here against Rays starter Erasmo Ramirez, who has a 6.48 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 7 starts this season and an ugly 9.20 ERA and 2.045 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Reds will counter here with Tim Adleman, who is 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.283 WHIP in 11 starts, but has been trending in the right direction. Adleman has a 2.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games and 8 of 9 overall. Rays are also just 8-25 in 33 games over the last 2 seasons after a 5 game span where the bullpen had an ERA of 6.50 or worse.
Handicappers Hub
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals +133
There is good Pomeranz and bad Pomeranz and I will take my chances that the bad one shows up tonight on the road against a tough Royals team. Look for KC to work the count and make him throw a lot of pitches and then pounce on the fastball when they get the chance.
I also like Kennedy to slow down this Sox offense who struggles in mid week day games. Love the Royals in the spot to get the home W.