DAVE COKIN
DIAMONDBACKS AT BLUE JAYS
PLAY: DIAMONDBACKS +155
I make today’s Diamondbacks-Blue Jays interleague battle being a close call on the analysis. That’s where the price comes into play, as I see Arizona having a good deal of value with the number on this contest being as high as it is.
JA Happ gets knocked from sabermetrics number crunchers. His W/L record going back to the second half of last season is downright spectacular. But when examining several of the Happ peripherals, it’s not outrageous to suggest the veteran lefty has had Lady Luck smiling at him on a regular basis.
I won’t got the knock Happ route. He’s consistency done well enough to give his team a good chance to win, and his game scores for the season are above average. Believe me, I’ve been very much a metrics guy over the past several seasons. But I’ve also come to realize that the ability to hang in and find ways to win might ultimately be more important, and Happ has been dynamite as far as that goes.
Robbie Ray will be on the mound for the Snakes today. He has become somewhat predictable in that when his command is good, he’s a very tough lefty. When Ray struggles to find the strike zone, his pitch count explodes and he ends up having to work behind in the count. That’s when bad things happen to Ray. The good news is that Ray seems to be figuring things out. I’ve been very impressed with his last two outings, each of which included just one free pass. I have little doubt that Ray will still throw in the occasional clunker, but I think it’s fair to say that I’m beginning to have more confidence in him at this point.
I like the idea of backing a hot team catching a nice price, and that’s certainly the scenario here as the Diamondbacks are playing their best ball of the season right now. Granted, the first four wins in their current 5-0 run came against the reeling Phillies. But Arizona has now won eight of its last ten and they’ve actually been a pretty good road team all season.
The Blue Jays had been on a tear with seven wins in eight games, and the offense was really coming together for this Toronto team. But the Jays have now dropped three in a row, and while Happ dominated the Phillies in his more recent start, he was roughed up in the prior two.
I make Toronto the favorite in this game, but not by nearly as much as the Blue Jays are currently priced. So I’ll go with the Diamondbacks as a live dog with a nice price tag to get the upset this afternoon.
Mike Lundin
Rockies vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -140
The Colorado Rockies picked up a rare win in the Bronx when they defeated the New York Yankees 8-4 in the first game of a two-game series last night. They've lost five of the last six meetings in New York though, and I like the Yankees to bounce back with a win today with CC Sabathia on the mound.
Sabathia (5-4, 2.20) has been magnificent all season long. He's given up just one run through his last three starts while covering a total of 18 innings. The left-hander has not allowed a single earned run through his last two turns at Yankee Stadium despite facing two powerful lineups in the Blue Jays and the Tigers. He has the current Rockies team limited to a .172 batting average over 64 at bats.
Colorado turns to Jon Gray (4-3, 4.55 ERA) who much like Sabathia has been sharp lately. Gray has struggled with the long ball lately though surrendering at least one in each of his last five starts.
Rockies are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter while the Yankees are 14-5 in Sabathia's last 19 interleague starts.
Stephen Nover
Royals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -177
You better have a lot of confidence in a starting pitcher to lay a price this high especially when the offense hasn't been great. But I have that faith in Noah Syndergaard. He just might be the best right-hander in baseball - at least when he pitches at Citi Field where he has a 1.80 ERA and 64-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Mets have never lost in five games when Syndergaard has been home chalk of $1.60 or higher. The Royals don't figure to end that streak averaging 3.1 runs a game on the road and not being able to start DH Kendrys Morales because of playing in a National League park.
Kansas City has the best home record in baseball at 25-8. But the Royals are not the same team on the road going 13-24, including losing 10 of their past 12 away from Kauffman Stadium.
The two major concerns about backing the Mets at this high of a price is New York's offense and bullpen, which went 8 2/3 innings last night. However, Syndergaard is just 23 and pitching on extra rest. He's gone into the seventh inning during 62 percent of his starts this year. Closer Jeurys Familia is the Mets' key reliever - and he's fresh. Familia hadn't pitched since Sunday until throwing 14 pitches on Tuesday night in earning a save.
Lefty Danny Duffy is going for Kansas City. The Mets have a winning record versus southpaws. They scored 11 runs off the Pirates and Jeff Locke the last time they faced a lefty. Duffy has done a credible job since joining Kansas City's starting rotation in the middle of May going 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. But he's been prone to the long ball and isn't close to Syndergaard's stature.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee at Oakland
Play: Milwaukee +101
Edges - Brewers: Junior Guerra 7-2 MLB career team starts with 3.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, including 4-0 away. A’s Daniel Mendgen 0-2 MLB career team starts. With Oakland struggling at 5-15 in its last 20 overall games during the month of June, We recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Jim Feist
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9½
Toronto is an easy home run park and the Diamondbacks pick up the DH for this interleague series. Arizona has a strong offense anyway, No. 12 in baseball in runs scored. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Diamondbacks last 9 interleague road games. Arizona lefty Robbie Ray has a losing record and a 4.44 ERA and the over is 7-1 in his last eight starts. Toronto's offense continues to roll, No. 7 in baseball in runs scored. The Over is 18-6-2 in the Blue Jays last 26 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. JA Happ's last three starts have resulted in final scored of 13-2, 11-6 and 11-0. And the Over is 39-18-4 in the Blue Jays last 61 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
Matt Josephs
Rockies vs. Yankees
Play: Rockies +1½
It's young vs. old in New York as the Yankees host the Rockies. CC Sabathia continues his hot stretch of pitching as he has allowed one run and 13 hits in his last three outings. Sabathia is 5-4 with a 2.20 ERA in 11 outings for NYY. He'll face a Colorado team that is scoring 4.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters and are 15-11 in day games. Jon Gray is 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA in 11 starts for the Rockies. He has 72 strikeouts to just 19 walks in 65.3 innings of work. The righty has allowed just seven runs and 15 hits in his last three games. Not a single hitter on the Yankees has faced Gray and that's an advantage. New York is hitting .237 in day games and are now 1-5 in interleague play. I think there's good value with the road team's runline in this one.
Bob Harvey
Angels +133
The Houston Astros go for a three-game sweep of the Anaheim Angels when the two teams meet at Minute Maid Park.
The Angels (31-39, 30-40 RL) June swoon continues. They’re just 5-12 this month and rumors are now circulating that long time manager Mike Scioscia’s job could be in jeopardy. However his supporters say the problem is owner Arte Moreno, who set the franchise back by giving huge contracts to C.J. Wilson (injured), Josh Hamilton (traded) and Albert Pujols who is sidelined—again—with hamstring and ankle soreness.
The Astros (36-36, 32-40 RL) have won six of their last seven games and 19 of 27 to reach the .500 mark for the first time since April 6. In Tuesday’s 3-2 victory, Carlos Correa drove in all three runs with a solo homer and a two-run, walk-off single in in ninth to win it. Correa has garnered six RBIs in the series and has gone deep in both games after not hitting one since May 29.
The pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers. It’s been a tale of two seasons for Shoemaker (3-7, 4.50 ERA) who has rebounded nicely from a slow start. He’s 0-2 with a 2.20 ERA during his four-start winless stretch and has given up two or fewer runs in five of his last six turns. E’s struck out 55 and walked just two over his past six outings. Shoemaker is 2-1 with a 4.55 ERA in six career appearances (four starts) against Houston.
McCullers (3-2, 4.24 ERA) was 1-1 against the Angels in four starts as a rookie last season but had an impressive 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He has struck out 50 batters in just 40 1/3 innings this season, but control has been an issue as he has walked at least three in each game and issued 26 overall.
Will Rogers
Italy vs. Ireland
Pick: Under
Italy has already secured the top spot in the group after back-to-back wins against Belgium and Sweden. Belgium can tie them with six points, but Italy would still claim the top spot because of head-to-head. With Italy content to earn a draw here, it's going to be very difficult for the Irish to create any offense.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Italy Strategy - Very few expected much from the Italians heading into the European Championship. They've perfected tournament football over the years though, and today's scenario should fit them very well. Republic of Ireland need to win to have a chance to qualify for the knockout stage, and Italy is very confident in its ability to sit back and hit teams with effective counter attacks.
2. Ireland At Big Tournaments - The Irish are winless in their last seven games at Euro finals with a pair of draws and five defeats. They've scored just a total of four goals in eight games at the Euros.
3. X-Factor - Not only has Italy registered consecutive clean sheets in the tournament, they won 1-0 versus Scotland and 2-0 versus Finland in their previous two matches.
Jesse Schule
Kansas City vs. New York
Pick: Kansas City +1.5
The Royals lost by a score of 2-1 in Game 1 of this series at Citi Field, and another pitcher's duel may be in the cards this afternoon.
Danny Duffy will toe the rubber for the Royals, and this looks like a good spot for the southpaw. Duffy (2-1, 3.17 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over five innings, with all the damage coming by way of the long ball in a home loss to the Tigers his last time out. He's been better on the road than he has been at home, with a 1.37 ERA in 12 appearances. His day/night splits are also encouraging, going 1-0 with 0.44 ERA in nine appearances in day games.
The Mets hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, who has been "lights out" all season. The 23 year old flame thrower could be asked to do all the heavy lifting today though, as he's backed by a Mets offense that has scored a total of six runs while losing three of it's last four overall. The Mets rank 29th in the majors batting a woeful .233.
Five of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have been decided by one run.
CARMINE BIANCO
Portugal at Hungary
Play: Portugal -1
It'll be an interesting final set of matches today and this is one of them. Hungary come into this with a surprising lead of group F with 4 points and are assured of a spot in the knockout stages but could drop out of first spot with a loss today to Portugal who themselves are in need of a full 3 to be certain of qualification. Portugal have underachieved to say the least but have looked like the better side in both draws at this point. They'll need to be at their best today to break through as you can expect a formation change by this hungary side with an additional midfielder to drop and support the backline. Typically teams that make these adjustments have trouble recovering after conceding so I'll back Portugal here in a must win and if they break through early (first 25-30) they'll be in a great spot to cover today's line.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Under in the Mariners-Tigers contest.
Last night the pitching shutdown the hitting in Detroit's 4-2 win.
Look for Hishashi Iwakuma and Michael Fulmer to keep the bats silent for another night tonight.
Iwakuma has done a better job pitching on the road, as he brings in a 3.46 road ERA for the season into this assignment, and his ERA is at 3.43 for his last 3 starts overall.
Fulmer has worked his last 6 starts with just 2 earned runs crossing in his last 40 innings worked!
Fulmer will set the tone, and Iwakuma will follow suit.
Mariners-Tigers Under.
2* SEATTLE-DETROIT UNDER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 71-64 run with free picks: Milwaukee at OAKLAND (-125)
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free winner is on the Oakland Athletics today, as they host the Milwaukee Brewers in an afternoon contest about a parking lot away from where the Warriors broke the hearts of their fans three nights ago. It's a healing process, but I think the A's are doing a good job and giving the town's sports fans something to cheer about.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Momentum is in Oakland's favor, as the Brewers have now lost four in a row, after falling 5-3 last night. Milwaukee has now lost seven of 10, while it is a dismal 12-23 on the road this season.
BOTTOM LINE is - Meanwhile, as the Athletics are in the cellar of the American League West, they're scrapping to catch the Angels, who are having a tough time right now and could get swept in Houston. If Oakland sweeps the Brewers, and the Angels continue to freefall, the A's will be out of last place by the weekend.
5* ATHLETICS
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Detroit Tigers over the struggling Seattle Mariners. Though the Tigers' pitching staff has been reliable, I'm not going to bother listing pitchers, cause in the event Michael Fulmer can't go, I still want action on Detroit.
The M's have lost four in a row, and their staff is in disarray. Reports out of Seattle reveal they may have to bring up right-hander Zach Lee, just acquired Sunday from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nothing is going right for them right now, and that's not good when you're on the road against a fellow contender. Especially one that could be a thorn in your side come wild card time.
Detroit, sitting in third place in the tightly contested American League Central, is 19-13 at home this season. The Mariners have been much better on the road this year - they're 15-18 at home and 21-17 on the road - but they also lost a tough one Monday night, falling 8-7 to the Tigers, and then again 4-2 yesterday.
Those losses will resonate and the Tigers will win again.
1* TIGERS
RAY MONOHAN
Boston -109
The Red Sox and White Sox continue their 4 game set and its Boston who holds the value here.
Chicago has taken the first two and losing 3 in a row at Fenway for this Boston team has been extremely rare. In fact, winning 3 in a row for the White Sox has been even more rare.
Chicago hasn't won 3 straight since the first week in May. Since that 4 game span, the White Sox have gone 11-26. They send out Jose Quintana who is getting zero run support too. Quintana has gotten just 5 runs of support over his last 7 starts.
Some trends to consider. BOS are 8-3 in their last 11 Wed. games.BOS are 8-3 in Rodriguezs last 11 home starts.
Boston at a price like this, at home, is always tough to find. Given that, this a real nice spot to back them.
JOHN RYAN
Royals +180
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-34 since 1997 good for 63% winners and made 33 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (KANSAS CITY) - average AL hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against an excellent NL starting pitcher (ERA under 2.70), in June games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is 64-47 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons; 21-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 3 seasons; 20-10 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season; 45-26 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series. Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Royals are 5-1 in Duffys last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Fundamental Discussion Points Duffy (2-1, 3.17 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits over five innings, with all the damage coming by way of the long ball in a home loss to the Tigers his last time out. He's been better on the road than he has been at home, with a 1.37 ERA in 12 appearances. His day/night splits are also encouraging, going 1-0 with 0.44 ERA in nine appearances in day games. The Royals bullpen is very solid on the road posting a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.156 in case the southpaw goes south. The Mets' offense has scored a total of six runs while losing three of it's last four overall. The Mets rank 29th in the majors batting a woeful .233 average with an OBP of just .302.