SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +127 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yankees have three wins in their past nine games. All three victories came against the sad-sack Twins. They continue to be overpriced daily because, well, we have no idea why. They were favoured in Colorado last week in both games and lost both games. They lost the opener of this series last night.
We previewed C.C. Sabathia and his recent strong results last week and rather than write it up in a different way, we’re just going to run it again. Keep in mind that Sabathia pitched against the Twins that day and allowed six hits and one run in six innings. He had traffic all day and fought his way out of a few jams. He may not be as lucky today. Here is that piece on CC:
Professional baseball is a game of adjustments. Of adjusting to life on the road. Of adjusting to no longer being the alpha dog on the field. Of adjusting to the adjustments that teams make once they have a reliable scouting report. Of adjusting to one’s body over the course of a long career. C.C. Sabathia has been forced to do all of that. He’s gone from Cy Young candidate to below-replacement pitcher. He’s checked himself into rehab and handled the P.R. ramifications of such a public choice. He’s listened to his body—more directly, his decreased velocity—and introduced a cutter into his repertoire to cope with it. In short, CC Sabathia is a professional pitcher in the true sense of the word, a guy who works at his craft and takes meaningful steps to remain successful. Some things have worked more than others. But in the last 30 days, Sabathia has been the second-best starter in Major League Baseball surrounded by Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto and Noah Syndergaard. That’s quite some company surrounding Sabathia—four front-line starters...and the Yankees’ lefty, which begs the question, is CC Sabathia fixed? Has he discovered an avenue toward sustained success with this cutter?
So really what we’re talking about is his last six-game stretch, in which he’s been phenomenal. He has only allowed three earned runs in his last 38 innings, good for an 0.71 ERA, and he’s holding hitters to a .176/.265/.221 slash line. It’s a stretch of performance that has been so utterly dominant that it has effectively made his early-season disaster look like a mere speed bump on a newly-paved road. His cutter hasn’t been a magical pitch for him in 2016. He actually struggled with it in the month of April, as opposing teams hit .290 against the pitch, admittedly with a .375 BABIP. Still, it wasn’t handcuffing right-handers like it was supposed to. It’s no secret as to what Sabathia was trying to do with his cutter to neutralize righties. He tried to pound them on the extreme inner half, often working it up in the zone to make it very difficult to handle. One could argue that his cutter vastly improved since the month of May. Opposing teams are only hitting .159 against the pitch, something that’s helped by an unsustainable .200 BABIP. When it comes to location, though, nothing really changed. Sabathia is still doing the same thing with the pitch, just suddenly getting very different results.
There is no evidence whatsoever to defend any argument that suggests Sabathia is finally improving because he’s locating it better. It’s about the same. What Sabathia’s recent run of success stems from is actually pretty simple, though, it seems. It’s simply a matter of throwing more strikes to get ahead in the count on the first pitch. But this is a game of adjustments, as noted above. Opposing hitters swung 42.42 percent of the time against Sabathia’s sinker in the month of April. They put the ball in play 24.24 percent of the time. Since May? Opposing hitters are only swinging 14.04 percent of the time on first-pitch sinkers. Opposing hitters tried to adjust to the fact that Sabathia couldn’t throw strikes. Unfortunately, when hitters stopped swinging, Sabathia started throwing more strikes, getting ahead in the count, and relying on his cutter/slider/changeup to get outs. Hitters will adjust back. They’ll start swinging more, and when they do, Sabathia will get whacked but he’s the exact same below-replacement pitcher that he was before. Will that happen today? We wish we knew but you can be damn sure we are going to be attacking Sabathia when he’s overpriced like he is here.
Jonathan Gray has eight PURE quality starts in 11 tries. That puts him on an elite level. Gray is one of only seven starters in MLB who can claim elite skills across the board both with the bases empty and with runners on base. He has been victimized by a terrible 14% strand rate when guys are on base. With top-tier punch-out potential and a groundball tilt, Gray is a budding ace who won't come cheap much longer. That Gray and the Rocks are being offered this high a price against C.C. Sabathia and the Yanks confirms how perception is reality. Regardless of outcome, that perception is so wrong.
Philadelphia +155 over MINNESOTA
The Twins exploded for 14 runs last night on Aaron Nola and several relievers but that is a rare feat for them. On most nights, Minnesota is beating themselves. Lost in their 14-10 victory last night was the fact that they gave up 10 runs, which isn’t a rare feat for them. Now Kyle Gibson goes from a +125 underdog at home versus the Yanks and C.C. Sabathia to a -168 favorite over Adam Morgan and the Phillies. Really?
Gibson has 15 walks and 17 K’s in 33 innings. He has a 6.06/5.16 ERA/xERA split to go along with a 1.59 WHIP. He also plays for a team that can’t get out of its own way. In other words, there’s also team-level, across-the-board incompetence and for an average pitcher like Gibson, sustained success is near impossible as long as he’s on THAT team. From Eduardo Nunez’s pathetic fielding at SS to a bunch of outfielders that can’t calculate the path of the baseball correctly, Minnesota’s defence allows a ton of runs that other teams would not. Remarkably, by the conventions of modern scoring, obvious defensive blunders are scored a hit. A simple fly ball landing on the ground despite the nearby presence of a major-league outfielder is not an “error,” even though the right-fielder on your average office softball team would make the play 9,999 times out of ten thousand, even if he had to get out of his lawn chair to chase the ball.
One has to wonder how many hits would be outs but for the Roberto Duran manos de piedra fielding of Nunez and Kepler. His team can’t get outs from routine grounders to short or cans of corn to right, and the sad spectacle of Miguel Sano lumbering around the OF in other Twins games does not make for a positive outlook on that front. One also has to wonder how many inherited runners will continue to score if the manager puts in southpaws to face strings of RH hitters, because more broadly, he doesn’t have relievers who can get batters out.
Twins’ relievers have a combined ERA of 5.28, second-worst in MLB (the Reds are at a truly historic 6.28, by the way). And while they are only slightly worse than the 31% league average in allowing inherited runners to score, Twins relievers have so far allowed runners to romp home at a 54% clip. The point is that the Twins are instant fade material when priced in this range, especially with a pitcher like Gibson going.
Our win expectation for last night’s opener between these two was actually higher than we figured. When your team scores 10 times, you are supposed to win. Our win expectation for this game is just as good because Adam Morgan is a pitcher high on our radar. Morgan’s surface ERA of 6.49 makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Morgan has a solid BB/K split of 13/45 in 53 innings. In his last start he struck out eight batters in four innings. He has a 15% swing and miss rate since mid-May covering his last six starts. Morgan’s 62% strand rate and incredibly high 16% hr/f rate have combined to torpedo his surface stats. His xERA of 3.66 reveals just how effective he’s been and it also almost guarantees a string of good outings at some point. We are merely pointing out that Morgan is better than his numbers. At the end of the day, it really doesn’t matter which starter is going against Minnesota because the Twinkies are not even close to being worthy of this price. Big overlay here.
DETROIT -1½ +177 over Seattle
Michael Fulmer is emerging as a starter with breakout potential. No starter in the AL has posted better skills against righties than Fulmer has. In addition, only Jose Fernandez has a higher strikeout rate vs. RHers than Fulmer's 12.9 K’s/9. A strikeout pitch against LH bats (5.3 K’s/9) is the biggest missing piece to a breakout. He is getting a 15%+ swing and miss rate on two off-speed pitches and his 95-mph four-seam fastball is generating more swings-and-misses than that type of pitch normally does. He’s also done a good job keeping the ball on the ground. His 13% hr/f is high, but with so few fly balls, he’s not been hurt too much. With a 7-2 record, Fulmer has been a much-needed revelation for the Tigers’ staff. But keep in mind he’s still quite young (just turned 23), and his AAA time in 2016 was his first exposure at the level. We like that Fulmer was knocked around in his last start. That prevents him from being a little too complacent and cocky after going three straight without giving up a run. We also like that the Mariners have never faced him before.
This bet, however, is more about fading Hisashi Iwakuma, a pitcher that is performing a dangerous high-wire act. Iwakuma is coming off a 7-inning, four-run performance in Boston against the suddenly weakening offense of the Red Sox. Iwakuma induced a mere eight grounders in that game against 17 fly-balls. The game before that, he induced just six grounders against 17 fly-balls. Iwakuma’s batted ball profile of 38%/24%/38% groundballs/line-drives/fly-balls is one of the more disturbing batted ball profiles in baseball. Iwakuma gets hit hard every single game and now it’s just a matter of where those balls land. His velocity is way down to 87 MPH. His swing and miss rate is sinking every month and is down to 7% in June and 5% in his last start versus the Red Sox. Iwakuma’s xERA over his last three starts is 5.18. The cherry on the top here is that current Tigers have hit .356 against Iwakuma by going 37 for 104. Eight of those 37 hits were home runs and that was mostly when Iwakuma was better than he is right now. Iwakuma is getting far too much credit here.
Larry Ness
Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The Cleveland Indians look to complete a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, as well as a 6-0 sweep of the team's homestand which also comes to an end with tonight’s contest. The five-game winning streak has extended Cleveland’s home wining streak to 10 in row, which is the longest home winning streak in the majors this season. The Indians opened just 12-12 at home but are now 22-12 at Progressive Field this year (have averaged 5.56 RPG), with their last loss at home coming back on May 31 in a 7-3 loss to Texas. The 40-30 first-place Indians (AL Central) are currently 10 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2013 season, when they qualified for the playoffs as a wildcard with a record of 92-70.
Cleveland’s success is in stark contrast to that of the Tampa Bay Rays who are in last place in the AL East at 31-38, having lost SIX in a row. Injuries have taken a toll on the Tampa Bay offense (Rays have placed EIGHT players on the DL in the last 37 days), as in the team’s six-game losing streak the Rays have scored a total of just 14 runs (doing the math, that’s 2.33 RPG). In Tuesday night's game the Rays only had two players in their starting lineup hitting over .238. The bottom five in the order were hitting a combined .197. In this final game of Cleveland’s homestand, the Indians will send Trevor Bauer (4-2, 3.46) up against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (4-9, 4.60 ERA).
Many expected Archer to have a breakout season in 2016 but he suffered his second straight loss and FIFTH in six outings this past Friday (4.91 ERA). He allowed four runs on six hits in as many innings of a 5-1 setback to San Francisco and the Rays are now 5-10 in his 2016 starts, minus-$584 at $100/game. Archer was originally drafted by the Indians in the fifth round of the 2006 draft and he’s had ZERO success against the team which drafted him, going 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA (note: the Rays have been shutout in THREE of those games!).
Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer looks to extend his streak of good starts when he takes the mound, having posted a 2.12 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .204 batting average over his last four starts (28 Ks in 29.2 innings). He’s just 1-0 in that span but the Indians are 3-1. No reason to back the Rays or buck the Indians in this spot.
SCOTT SPREITZER
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: San Francisco Giants -105
Pittsburgh is in free fall after a 15-4 loss to the Giants last night, the 11th loss in 13 games for the Pirates. Francisco Liriano has lost his last four starts while allowing 20 runs (16 earned), 26 hits and 16 walks in 21 innings. San Francisco has won 19 of its last 26 road games and nine of its last 10 overall. Jeff Samardzija had a rough patch but recovered to throw a complete game at Tampa Bay on Friday giving up just one run and four hits with no walks. Samardzija has a 2.89 ERA against the Pirates the last three years, including a 1.61 ERA and a .194 opponent batting average at PNC Park. Liriano has issued 46 bases on balls this season, which leads the major leagues in that dubious category. We're getting great value in this matchup.
Scott Rickenbach
Braves at Marlins
Pick: Over
I would have liked to have posted this Free Pick even earlier because this game goes so early Wednesday but I had to wait on the revised numbers to come out from the books based on the pitching change for Atlanta. The Braves decided to save Matt Wisler for tomorrow so they are going with John Gant this afternoon. The Atlanta right-hander got the win in his 2nd start but he faced the slumping Mets lineup. In his first start he faced the Cubs and Gant did not last 5 innings as he struggled. The damage could have been much worse than the 2 earned runs he allowed as Gant gave up 4 hits and 4 walks in only 4 and 1/3 innings of work. He's facing a Marlins team that dropped to 5-3 their last 8 games with yesterday's loss but Miami has averaged 5.4 runs and 10.4 hits per game in their last 8 games. The Braves have averaged nearly 6 runs per game during their current surprising 6-game winning streak. That said, Atlanta is certainly stepping into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one and I expect them to pound the Marlins Adam Conley. He has a 4.67 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his most recent start walks were an issue and in his prior start 11 hits in 5 innings was certainly an issue. Today he's facing the wrong team at the wrong time. The over is 13-6 in Atlanta's games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The over is 23-16 in Marlins games against teams with a losing record this season.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -121
Cleveland has won five straight, including 6-0 last night as Corey Kluber threw a complete game against the punchless Rays, who have lost six in a row. Trevor Bauer takes the mound tonight and he has not allowed more than three runs in nine of his last 10 starts, including a 3-2 win against the White Sox on Friday when he allowed one run and four hits in seven innings. Bauer is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA on the season and the Indians are 22-12 at home. Chris Archer has struggled all season and Tampa Bay has lost five of his last six starts, including 5-1 his last appearance when he gave up four runs and six hits in six innings against San Francisco. We're getting a bargain price with the hotter team.
Chip Chirimbes
Giants at Pirates
Play: Pirates
Their are many experts that predicted the Pirates would be a contender in the NL but they are struggling and are currently three games under .500. With the Cubs and Cardinals in front of them in the NL Central they have to turn it around soon. Pittsburgh has now lost 16 of their last 21 and were absolutely destroyed 15-4 by the Giants yesterday. When a team loses like that and is embarrassed even in baseball they seem to manage a good performance the next time out. Pittsburgh starter Francisco Liriano (4-7, 5.03 ERA) is in a four-start losing streak but is 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in five start against the Giants and needs some support tonight.
Greg Shaker
Nationals / Dodgers Under 7.5
With a day off for both teams tomorrow and neither getting one Monday or last Thursday we might see a couple of players get a rest for tonight. That will help our cause but that's not the primary reason to play this one. This UNDER Venue (26-11 UNDER this Season) has popped out 2 more in this series and on getaway day no reason to believe we will not see another. Nat's Pitcher very capable, Urias has Dazzled his last 2 and the Nats have not seen him. (I Think) 2 Better than average Pens for these teams.
Dave Cokin
White Sox +105
Total mismatch on the mound. Quintana continues to be phenomenally unlucky, as he's pitching at a near elite level but doesn't get wins. But I've got to fire on him here. The Red Sox bats have suddenly gone into a bit of a slump. The White Sox still aren't hitting much, but they've managed to grab a couple of needed wins at Fenway to stop the bleeding. Eduardo Rodriguez has been horrible since coming back from his injury. His velocity is still down from last year, but more importantly, his location has been lousy and he's getting blown up. I thought the line on the Tuesday game was a little strange, and will say the same about this one. I'll be happy to take my chances with Quintana and the White Sox.
Vegas Butcher
San Francisco Giants +103
Liriano is one of the worst pitchers in the league this year, ranking 134th out of about 150. He’s been even worse over the last 30-days sporting an e-ERA (expected ERA) of 5.7. I’ll grab Samardzija at this price, who is a top-40 pitcher.
Tampa Bay Rays +102
The fact that both Archer and Bauer have an eERA of 3.6 the last 30-days is one thing but Archer has faced a much tougher competition during that span. Bauer’s numbers are indicating some correction is in order (4.2 SIERA vs. 3.2 ERA), while Archer’s are indicating that he’s due to receive better luck going forward (3.7 SIERA vs 4.6 ERA). I’ll grab the plus-odds with a better pitcher here.
Philadelphia Phillies +154
Gibson is my 143rd ranked starter and the Twins shouldn’t be laying this many points to anyone. Morgan sports a 4.3 SIERA which is a full run better than Gibson’s 5.3 mark, and we all know there’s a ton of value on the Phillies here.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Pirates -101
Pittsburgh was embarrassed in Tuesday 15-4 loss at home to the Giants and are now just 6-18 over their last 24. As bad as it's been for the Pirates, this is still one of the most talented teams in the NL and I like the value we are getting with them at home tonight with Francisco Liriano on the mound. Liriano has a strong 2.86 ERA in 6 home starts and is 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 5 career starts against the Giants. San Francisco will give the ball to Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a complete game at Tampa Bay, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits. However, Samardzija is just 6-15 in his last 21 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in his last 2 outings. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 14-3 in Liriano's last 17 starts at home.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Pirates -101
Pittsburgh was embarrassed in Tuesday 15-4 loss at home to the Giants and are now just 6-18 over their last 24. As bad as it's been for the Pirates, this is still one of the most talented teams in the NL and I like the value we are getting with them at home tonight with Francisco Liriano on the mound. Liriano has a strong 2.86 ERA in 6 home starts and is 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 5 career starts against the Giants. San Francisco will give the ball to Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a complete game at Tampa Bay, where he allowed just 1 run on 4 hits. However, Samardzija is just 6-15 in his last 21 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in his last 2 outings. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 14-3 in Liriano's last 17 starts at home.
JACK JONES
San Francisco Giants -103
The San Francisco Giants cannot be tamed right now. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall and are the hottest team in the league. They put up a whopping 15 runs on the Pirates yesterday and should continue to stay hot at the plate.
Jeff Samardzija is enjoying his new home in San Francisco. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 14 starts this season. Samadzija has also posted a 2.44 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Pirates.
Francisco Liriano is finally showing signs of being well past his prime in 2016. The left-hander is 4-7 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.623 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He has really struggled of late, going 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Giants are 21-5 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. San Francisco is 8-3 in Samardzija's last 11 starts. The Pirates are 5-16 in their last 21 games overall. Pittsburgh is 0-7 in its last seven during Game 3 of a series.
BRANDON LEE
Dodgers -130
LA is rolling at the moment. The Dodgers have won 5 straight and 7 of 8 overall. The Nationals on the other hand have lost 4 in a row and it appears the current road trip is taking it's toll on them. Washington has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 straight games and figure to have another tough day at the plate against 19-year-old phenom Julio Urias, who has got better with each start. Urias has a 4.50 ERA overall in 5 outings, but a 1.88 ERA in his last 3. He's also been at his best at home, where he has a 1.00 ERA in 2 starts, both resulting in Dodgers' wins. Washington will counter with Joe Ross, who has hit a bit of a rough patch with a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts against soft-hitting teams like the White Sox, Phillies and Padres. Ross' only career start against Dodgers came last season in LA and it wasn't pretty. He gave up 5 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 4 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss.
JIMMY BOYD
Tigers -110
Detroit is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mariners. The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series and I like their chances of making it three in a row. Seattle is in a major funk at the moment. The Mariners have lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall.
Detroit will give the ball to talented rookie Michael Fulmer, who is 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 10 starts. He's allowed a mere 2 runs over his last 6 starts, which included a stretch of 33 1/3 scoreless innings. He faces a Seattle offense that has scored 2 or less in 3 of their last 4.
The Mariners will counter with veteran Hisashi Iwakuma, who has had an up and down go of things in 2016. Iwakuma is just 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA in 14 starts. He faces a Tigers offense that is scoring a solid 5.2 runs/game and hitting .286 as a team at home this season. Seattle is just 3-7 in his last 10 starts after scoring 2 runs or less and 0-5 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter.
Tigers are now 14-3 in their last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record and 7-1 in Fullmer's last 8 starts.
DAVE PRICE
Washington Nationals +133
I believe the price is right to back the Washington Nationals tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Nationals come in hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight, including a blown 2-0 lead in the 8th inning last night. Now they'll send out the underrated Joe Ross, who is 6-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Ross is also 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 8 road starts this season. Julio Urias is a nice young prospect for the Dodgers, but he hasn't lived up to the hype yet. He's 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 5 starts this season. The Nationals are 15-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 5-0 in Ross' last 5 starts.