TEDDY COVERS
Phillies vs. Twins
Play: Over 9
To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement. Minnesota is 14-1-1 to the Over in their last 16 ballgames. My clients and I have been cashing betting the Twins Over repeatedly during that span, and tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring Slugfest. Here’s why:
In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the just concluded NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples. But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next.
Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise. A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out. And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now!
When an MLB team wins 14 out of 16 games, they’ll be one of the lead stories on SportsCenter – even if they’re a bottom feeder. But when a team goes 14-1-1 to the Over in a 16 game span, nobody notices. The markets don’t significantly adjust off that short sample size. The public doesn’t pay much attention to totals streaks, because they don’t necessarily stand out. The bookmakers aren’t particularly concerned either. But savvy bettors can take advantage of these streaks; cashing winning bets sometimes for weeks at a stretch. That’s where I’m at with Minnesota right now.
Twins starter Kyle Gibson got roughed up in April before an extended stint on the DL, and he’s been roughed up in two starts since coming off the DL, allowing eight earned runs in 12 innings of work. Gibson’s advanced metrics stats are terrible, issuing nearly as many walks as strikeouts on the season. The Twins bullpen behind him has been a disaster area all year, allowing another four runs last night in six more innings of work.
The Phillies pitching has been so bad that despite scoring three runs or less nine times in their last 13 ballgames they’re still trending Over the total during that span (9-4 to the Over). Starter Adam Morgan is barely holding on to his spot in the rotation while showing extremely vulnerability to the home run ball, a bottom tier pitcher on a bottom tier team. And the Phillies exhausted bullpen hasn’t had a day off since June 9th, primed to pour gas on any late inning fires should we need it!
Harry Bondi
SAN FRANCISCO +105 over Pittsburgh
Lots of reasons to take the plus price here and go against the Pirates. First off, Pittsburgh is in a free fall, losing six of its last seven games and 11 of 13. During this stretch they have scored more than four runs in a game just three times and have failed to score more than five. Starter Francisco Liriano is also in a funk, having lost his last three starts while compiling a 6.60 ERA and a whopping 2.133 WHIP. The Giants, meanwhile, have won 12 of their last 18 and have been profitable against southpaw starters, going 15-10 (+5.2 UNITS) this season. Take the slight dog that should be the favorite.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -115
Michael Fulmer has been awesome in his short work this season and in his last three starts has been just about perfect. If this guy could get his walks down he would be as good as any pitcher in the league, but sooner or later more men on base means pitchers getting rocked. I expect Seattle to continue to struggle tonight.
Oskeim Sports
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -135
The technical analysis in this game strongly favors Los Angeles as the Dodgers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games, 37-18 in their last 55 during game 3 of a series and 7-0 in their last seven games versus National League East foes. The Dodgers have also dominated this series, posting a 36-15 record in their last 51 home games versus Washington (4-0 L/4).
Los Angeles 19-year-old phenom Julio Urias takes the mound in excellent form with a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. In two home starts, Urias has compiled a 1.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and he also owns a 3.94 FIP, 3.01 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA overall this season. The sample size is too small to draw many conclusions, but the teenager boasts a 29.9% K% and 21.6% K-BB%. Urias has also been hampered by an unsustainable .375 BABIP so inevitable regression in that department will improve his surface numbers.
Los Angeles relievers have been outstanding this season, posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 227 innings, including a 2.40 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home, a 2.63 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at night and a 2.80 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, Washington's bullpen has really struggled recently as evidenced by its 5.89 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last ten days. Washington starter Joe Ross has yielded a combined 11 earned runs on 15 hits in his last three outings, a span covering just 17 innings (5.82 ERA & 1.23 WHIP).
A gradual decline is Ross' peripherals has also been evident: 2.95 FIP in April; 3.75 FIP in May; and a 4.42 FIP in June. His walk and home runs rates have also increased over the last six weeks so Ross seems to be trending in the wrong direction. In his lone start against the Dodgers last August, Ross allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Finally, Los Angeles falls into a very good 81-28 system that has generated +47.6 net units of profit since 1997. The idea is to invest on certain home favorites with a starting pitcher who is winless on the season after 5+ starts, provided he is supported by a good bullpen.
Take the surging Dodgers, winners of 7 straight, and invest with confidence.