Free Picks for Wednesday, June 28th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ray Monohan
Giants / Rockies Over 8.5
The Giants and Rockies face off on Wednesday and with two pitchers coming off bad starts, the over has a lot of value in this one. On the mound for the Rockies is Kyle Freeland who has been up and down all season and In his last start he was really down. He went six innings against the Dodgers giving up ten hits and five runs.
In his last start against the Giants he did only give up one run, but he also gave up eight hits. I think the Giants will be able to capitalize this time, and that will lead them to putting up runs early. On the mound for the Giants is Ty Blach who was also terrible in his last start. He went three innings against the Mets giving up 11 hits and seven earned runs. Some trends to note. Over is 6-1 in Giants last 7 home games. Over is 6-0 in Scheurwaters last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -133
Edges - Diamondbacks: Godley 2.13 ERA and 0.83 WHIP home this season, and 6-1 last 7 overall team starts, and 9-2 career as a favorite… Cardinals: Wainwright 9.28 ERA away as opposed to 2.64 ERA home this season, and 0-3 last three away team starts during June… With Godley in strong KW form with 32 Ks and 5 BBs his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Vic Duke
Kansas City +123
Not convinced Detroit is out of their slump. Norris has been beaten up over his last 3 starts (5.29 ERA), 2-5 over his last 7 home starts. And Detroit has last 4 of its last 5 Game 2 selections. On the other hand, KC is a smoking 10-1 in Game 2, 7-1 on the road, and won 5 of its last 6 at Detroit. We'll look for Ian Kennedy (3.78 ERA last 3 starts) to eat some quality innings. KC bullpen also gives up nearly a run less per game than Detroit.
Ben Burns
Dodgers vs. Angels
Play: Over 8½
I’ve recommended a play on the “over” through the first two games of this series and in my opinion, everything points to slug-fest in the finale as well. Hyun Jin-Ryu (3-6, 4.30 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday. Ryu’s numbers are pedestrian at best this year (just 1-4 with a 4.45 ERA on the road). Alex Meyer (3-3, 3.52) gave up five runs off five hits over just 3.1 innings in a 9-4 loss to Boston on Friday. It was Meyer’s shortest outing of the season for the Angels and while he’s been decent at home, he’s still just 2-4 with a poor 4.60 ERA in all “night” games this year. Recent performance displayed by these starting pitchers points to a higher-scoring affair on Wednesday night, consider the over.
Power Sports
Baltimore vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has somewhat struggled of late, dropping B2B outings including a poor showing his last time out at Texas where he allowed seven runs in just four innings. But that's nothing compared to the year-long struggles of Baltimore's Wade Miley, who has been really bad recently. Over his last three starts, Miley has an ERA of 10.38 and a WHIP of 2.154. He's also allowed four or more runs in five of his last six starts, including four in a row.
Now last night did see Baltimore come to Toronto and take the series opener by a final score of 3-1. But despite being able to win on the road in such low-scoring fashion, I remain quite skeptical of the O's. First off, while they may be at .500 (38-38) for the season, they've actually been outscored by a total of 63 runs. That's the second worst run differential in the entire American League right now, just ahead of Oakland. For the sake of comparison, the Blue Jays' YTD run differential is "only" -24 despite being four games below .500.
One of the key issues for Toronto this season has been a 2-8 record vs. Baltimore. But, at home, they should fare better. That's because even after last night's win, the Orioles are only 13-24 on the road. They're getting outscored by nearly 1.5 runs per game outside of Camden Yards. Stroman is far more likely to bounce back than is Miley, at least in my estimation. Home team gets the slight recommendation tonight.
Zack Cimini
Texas vs. Cleveland
Pick: Under
We'll look at the under for Wednesday's game three between the Rangers and Indians. Starters in Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer will look to offset their struggling bullpens. Tuesday, Cody Allen drew another loss for the Indians while Matt Bush had an uneasy save for Texas. Still, here look for a relative high total number to sway bettors minds to the attraction of the Indians and Rangers hot bats. Go opposite with the under here.
Jim Feist
Mets at Marlins
Pick: Under
The Mets have Steven Matz (3.60 ERA) going, and the Under is 4-1 when Matz faces the National League East. Miami is #20 in baseball in runs scored, #18 in slugging. Miami is 4-0 under the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Stephen Nover
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +175
It's not that I don't like Marcus Stroman. I just don't trust him in this price range. Now I'm not a huge fan of Wade Miley, whose average of 19 pitches per inning are the second-most in the majors, but the Orioles have a lot going for them to be this big of underdogs.
Baltimore is hot winning three in a row for the first time in nearly four weeks. The Orioles have owned the Blue Jays lately winning eight of the last 10 against them. Miley is a southpaw. The Blue Jays are 5-13 versus lefty starters this season.
Stroman is not in good form. He's surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He's allowed six homers in his last two starts and has a poor history against the Orioles with a 2-3 lifetime mark and 5.27 ERA in seven games, including six starts. The Orioles entered this week leading the American League in batting average with runners in scoring position.
Miley is 1-1 against Toronto this year with a 2.08 ERA. He's pitching on five days rest. Baltimore is 5-1 the past six times Miley has pitched on five days rest.
Miley isn't likely to go deep into the game, however. He's usually good for just five innings. But Baltimore's bullpen - at least their backend - is much better than perceived with closer Zach Britton not due back until July 5 because of a forearm strain.
Interim closer Brad Brach has allowed only one run in his past 14 appearances giving up just five hits during his last 14 1/3 innings. Setup man Darren O'Day has gone three scoreless innings since returning from the DL this past Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -1½
Great spot here to get your day started off on the right track, as I look for Seattle to have no problem beating the Phillies at home by at least 2 runs this afternoon. The Mariners are going to be locked in after dropping 3 straight and have their ace on the mound in Felix Hernandez, who will be making his second start back from the DL. He looked sharp in his first outing back, allowing just 3 runs with 6 strikeouts in 6 innigns against a loaded Astros lineup. I look for him to have no problem keep a mediocre Phillies offense in check.
Philadelphia is going to counter with Mark Leiter Jr., who was sharp in his first big league start at Arizona. I just think he's going to struggle to throw that well again, as were talking about a guy that had a 4.74 ERA in 12 relief appearances (19 innings) prior to that start. Seattle's offense is also poised to breakout of their recent slump, which has saw them score exactly 2 runs in 3 straight games.
The Mariners are 11-4 in their last 15 interleague games with a losing record, 5-1 in Hernandez's last 6 interleague starts and 9-2 in his last 11 home starts. Phillies are a mere 12-40 in their last 52 road games and 2-8 in their last 10 interleague games.
Handicappers Hub
Rangers vs. Indians
Play: Rangers +101
Yu Darvish is dazzling this season, especially on the road where he is just 3-2 despite a 2.23 ERA on the season for the Rangers. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer is 6-6 with a 5.53 ERA for the Indians this year and not much better at home - going 3-2 with a 5.18 ERA. The one strength that the Indians have over the Rangers is that of the bullpen, but Yu evens that out as he has gone 7+ in 4 out of his last 5 games.
This will allow the Rangers bullpen to get some much needed rest and I think that the Rangers knock Bauer out of the game early and get an easy win here tonight on the road!
Jim Feist
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Play: Milwaukee -111
Milwaukee is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chase Anderson (6-2, 2.92 ERA) goes here, allowing 6 runs his las 6 starts (40+ innings, 21 hits, 8 walks, 43 Ks). Cincinnati has terrible pitching and goes with Luis Castillo, who has walked 5 batters in 5 innings. The Reds are 3-10 vs. a team with a winning record, 23-49 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Reds are on a 3-14 run while the Brewers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Twins at Red Sox
Pick: Over
One of Rick Porcello's best outings of the season was back on May 6 vs. the Twins, when he pitched seven innings of 1-run ball in an 11-1 win. But Porcello's form has mostly been shaky since, as his 5.00 ERA suggests, and he had deceiving success last Friday vs. the Angels, who hit the ball hard and managed 8 hits and 3 runs in 6 1/3 IP. Meanwhile the Twins are unlikely to get more than five innings from their starter Adalberto Mejia, who has pitched into the 6th inning just twice all season.
Will Rogers
Colorado vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The set-up: The SF Giants opened a three-game series Monday night at home vs. the Rockies, coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the NY Mets, who outscored the Giants 24-8 at AT&T Park. That left the Giants an abysmal 5-21 in their previous 26 games (27-51 on the season), with the All Star break just two weeks away. However, in the Rockies, the Giants were facing a team which had all of sudden lost five in a row as they came to San Francisco. The Rockies woes have continued in the Bay Area, losing 9-2 and 4-3 (in 14 innings), giving Colorado seven straight losses. The Rockies look to avoid a second straight three-game sweep (were swept by the Dodgers over the weekend), while the Giants look to win three straight games for the first time since the middle of May.
The pitching matchup: Kyle Freeland (8-5 & 3.70 ERA) takes the mound for Colorado and Tyler Blach (4-5 & 4.86 ERA) for San Francisco. One could argue that Freeland is the best rookie pitcher in the National League this season, having compiled an 8-5 record and a 3.70 ERA in 15 starts. Freeland will be making his AT&T Park debut but he's already beaten the Giants twice in Coors Field (8-0 and 5-1), allowing just one run in 13 innings (0.69 ERA). Blach has filled in during Madison Bumgarner's shoulder injury but Bumgarner made a successful rehab start in the rookie-level Arizona League on Sunday and is expected to return to the rotation after the All-Star break. That's none too soon, as Blach has gone 0-3 in his past four starts (Giants are 0-4), having allowed 22 ERs on 37 hits in 21 1/3 innings (9.28 ERA). He's made one start against Colorado (0-0 & 4.05 ERA / team is 0-1).
The pick: No argument that Freeland is pitching much better than Blach but the Rockies are in a funk, having scored three runs or less in five of their seven losses in their current slide. I'm sticking with the home team.
Larry Ness
Yankees vs. White Sox
Pick: Yankees
The New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox square off on Wednesday in the rubber match of their three game set. The Yankees won 6-5 on Monday but fell 4-3 last night. New York had won six straight from June 9 through June 12 and held first place in the AL East at 38-23 but last night's loss makes them just 3-11 since and the Yankees are now 41-34, a game behind the Red Sox in the division.The White Sox are 10 games under .500 on the season (33-43) and find themselves in last place in the AL Central, although they are just seven games out of first.
Masahiro Tanaka (5-7, 5.74 ERA) takes the mound for New York and he'll be opposed by Chicago's Carlos Rodon, who will be making his first start of the 2017 season for the White Sox. Tanaka is arguably coming off his best start of the season, as he shut out the Texas Rangers over eight innings on Friday while striking out nine. Tanaka has been wildly inconsistent in 2017, as he's now allowed one or zero runs in five of his 15 starts but he's also yielded at least five ERs six different times.
Carlos Rodon has been out all season due to left biceps bursitis and said prior to the Tuesday game, "It's good to be back here with the boys. I know it's a job, but it's fun to be with my teammates." Rodon got roughed up on a rehab assignment, posting a combined 10.06 ERA in one start for Class A Winston-Salem and three starts for Triple-A Charlotte.
It's also hardly good news that in three career starts vs the Yanks, Rodon is 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA. Conversely, Tanaka is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 25 strikeouts against the White Sox in four career starts (Yanks are 4-0). Throw in the fact that New York is 7-0 in Tanaka’s last seven starts against AL Central foes and the bet is on the Yankees.