SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. ANGELS +106 over L.A. Dodgers
Is there a team in MLB that is attracting more hype than the Dodgers right now? No, not even the Astronauts are getting as much press as the Dodgers recently. What that means is you are going to pay a premium to back these Dodgers in almost every game they play especially when they’re playing teams much less popular than they are. Next, we have the seemingly short price on the Dodgers, which means the oddsmakers are “taking a position” here because they absolutely are aware that a high majority of bets on this contest will be placed on the Dodgers. We’re pretty sure that a high majority of bettors took Colorado to beat Matt Cain last night at a short price and this one has a similar feel to it. The red-hot Dodgers appear to be a steal tonight at -115 but you may have noticed we did not play Colorado last night because, that, too, looked too good to be true. Always be mindful of short prices on popular teams and that applies here.
What this market is likely going to overlook is that Hyun-Jin Ryu is not pitching very well despite what his surface stats suggest. Ryu has a seen a jump in fly balls lead to five over the wall over his last three starts. Ryu’s last effort resulted in a no-decision against the Mets but he only lasted five frames. Ryu is 1-4 on the road in six starts and he’ll now face an Angels’ squad that has scored an average of 6.0 runs per game with an OPS of .831 over their last eight games.
Alex Meyer faltered in his last but a look at the weeks leading up to that Fenway disaster gives us plenty of confidence. Meyer has exhibited improved command on both sides of the equation and he at least draws the Dodgers in a game away from Chavez Ravine where recently L.A. has terrorized opposing pitchers. One of the most difficult things to do is to come right back on a pitcher that you bet last game out after he gets smoked a and that is the case with Meyer. We had him in that aforementioned game at Fenway and he looked awful in walking two batters and allowing five runs in 3.1 innings of work before he was yanked. However, Meyer has 58 K’s in 49 innings to go along with a 46% groundball rate. If he’s throwing strikes, he’s difficult to hit and the oddsmakers are gambling that he’ll be throwing strikes tonight. That’s good enough for us.
SAN DIEGO -1½ +165 over Atlanta
Bartolo Colon has not pitched since June 6th and we doubt he was running around the track or lifting weights during his brief but significant hiatus. A strained left oblique landed him on the DL and much to our delight he’s been activated for this start. For years, Colon’s ERA somehow showed continued life but we kept preaching that his xERA tells a different story. Something had to give and it finally did, as there are momentous signs of erosion all over the place. Colon’s ERA is no longer his friend. He’s sporting a 7.78/6.22 ERA/xERA split. His swing and miss rate is down to 4%. In 12 starts, he has two wins and his fastball, his primary/only weapon averages out at 86 MPH. When he finally retires, he can entertain friends with tall tales of being on that team with Julio Franco and Ricky Henderson. His presence on the mound is more of a freak/side show than it is serious and we’re not going to miss an opportunity to fade him at prices like this even if it means spotting 1½-runs with the home side.
We told you about Luis Perdomo very early last year but his potential and upside have barely been noticed in this market. Perdomo is a Rule 5 success story from last year and may be one of the most undervalued starters in the game. He managed to post a 4.02 xERA in 146.2 innings last season and this year his xERA is even lower at 3.68. That’s really good for someone who’d never pitched above A-ball prior to last year! Perdomo’s heavy sinker drives his league best 65% groundball rate. He has nine pure quality starts in 13 games this season, which is a top-10 mark in MLB. Perdomo has sacrificed strikeouts for groundballs but he still gets his fair share of K’s when needed. He has a decent BB/K split of 28/61 in 73 innings. Digging deeper, nearly all of his problems have been inflicted by LH bats but righties have had no shot against him. This is a pitcher to put on your watch list and for DFS players, he can be played every time he starts because his potential for a gem is always present. Perdomo v Colon is a mismatch and we’ll play it accordingly.
N.Y. Yankees -1½ +117 over CHICAGO
Yesterday we cited pitchers coming off layoffs have been hit extremely hard this year and we find another one here in Carlos Rodon. Rodon has recovered from left biceps bursitis and has been activated from the 60-day disabled list for this start. The 24-year-old lefty makes his season debut here after tossing 17 innings in the minors after missing nearly three months. Over a four-start rehab at Triple-A Charlotte, Rodon gave up 21 hits and 20 earned runs while striking out 17 and walking nine in 17 innings. He also went 0-4 in those four starts. Rodon has anchor upside but he has to round into form again and it’s not going to happen overnight. Rodon's prospect pedigree—he ranked 17th in 2015’s top 100 prospects and his ability to miss bats provides long-term upside but there's still plenty of work to do. Aside from having to recover from a long layoff, his control sub-indicators (first-pitch strike rate and Ball%) and vanilla xERA warn against a step up in 2017. Remember one of our oldest adages: "Never pay for a level of performance a player has not previously achieved." It rings especially true for Rodon and so we’ll wait for a better opportunity to back him. This is now a great opportunity to fade him.
Masahiro Tanaka is one of just 20 starters in MLB who owns an xERA of under 3.68 in both home and road starts. Yet he has a 5.88 ERA at home and a 6.70 ERA on the road. At home, he has been victimized by a 29% hr/f, the highest home-park hr/f in the AL. He has also been hurt by a 22% hr/f away from home, in addition to an inflated 37% hit rate. Don’t be fooled by Tanaka’s surface stats because frankly, he’s never been better than he is right now. Tanaka has 85 K’s in 85 innings while issuing just 20 walks. His swinging strike rate of 15% is outstanding and his 18% swing and miss rate over his last five starts is tops in the league over any five-game span. Throw in an elite groundball rate and an elite line-drive rate and it all adds up to some major regression coming in Tanaka’s actual ERA. That regression very likely starts here. Invest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Quicken Loans National
Onwards we go this week to Maryland for the Quicken Loans National, another Par 70 event but this time it is at a new track: TPC Potomac. The reviews of the course have been overwhelmingly positive although it is yet to host a PGA TOUR level event. Two Web.com Tour contests in 2012 and 2013 are as high profile as it has got since a major overhaul. TPC Potomac has undergone a $20 million renovation to get it up to PGA TOUR standard. After reopening in 2009 it won a stack of ‘Best New Course’ awards, and that at least bodes well.
The early suggestion is that the players will find conditions to their liking. That’s not to say it will be a walk in the park, however. It’s short at 7,139 yards, but the indication is that there won’t be a massive amount of room off the tee. Significant volumes of water are in play on the back nine, and the bunkers have been redesigned deeper and wider. So, this is a similar kind of test to a number of the recent Par 70 events, with light winds again a factor.
The renovations include the reformation of Rock Run Creek, a voluble stretch of water that plays a hand on five holes of the back nine. Keeping it out of the drink will, naturally, be a factor come Sunday afternoon. The greens are Bentgrass in build while the fairways have been planted with Zoysia grass; the first of the ‘Championship’ courses to do so. This surface is familiar for those who have played their golf in South Africa; it is thin and reedy, and a potential nuisance when wet.
The bunkers have been remodeled to a Scottish Links style design and lined with fescue grass. Keeping out of those might be a wise idea. The course hosted the Booz Allen Classic (renamed from the Kemper Open) between 1987-2006, but since redevelopment it has only played host to a couple of Web.com Tour events – the Neediest Kids Championship in 2012, and the Mid-Atlantic Championship a year later.
As mentioned, this is a new course for the Quicken Loans National this time around and so details are fairly narrow in their scope. As we know, this is a short track and follows in a lineage of Par 70 events that have dominated the tour in the past few weeks. The weather will again be warm with a touch of wind, and so really there is nothing to suggest that current form will not translate to further success here. The tour has ricocheted from Bentgrass to Bermuda greens in recent weeks, so putting stats are only relevant to a certain extent, but pinning your hopes on those who have excelled on the former – tracks include Erin Hills, Muirfield Village and Colonial – is a wise move.
There are only two Par 5’s so the players will have to do the bulk of their scoring on the Par 4s. We have no idea of what the average winning score is here, but anything from -10 to -13 seems likely, so avoiding bogeys is key too. Can Potomac be overpowered by long hitters? We shall find out this week, but we suspect that sticking with methodical players might well be the best bet success. With all that in mind, here’s hoping we can dig out one or two players that will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
Graeme DeLaet – 50/1
He ranks seventh on tour for Total Driving, 20th for Greens in Regulation, and 21st for Strokes Gained: Putting, so it remains something of a mystery as to how Graeme DeLaet hasn’t broken his PGA TOUR duck as yet. It’s not as if 2017 has been a bad year for the Canadian either: 12/18 cuts made, eight top-25s, and five top-10s. So why can’t he get over the line? As we see it, he becomes less aggressive on the weekend and that is something he has to change. Champions attack with no fear and if Delaet can change his mindset, he’ll become more dangerous than he is. His game is good enough to win so maybe this is the week he does. DeLaet heads to Maryland on the back of a T10 at the Memorial and T26 at the Travelers; an effort which included an outstanding opening round of 65. Everything is in place for a DeLaet challenge (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).
Head-to-head matchup
G. DeLaet +101 over K.Stanley (Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units).
David Hearn 90-1
With back-to-back top-10s, the going is very good for David Hearn at present. The Canadian’s performances often flatter to deceive (his average drive is 279 yards long), so there’s always going to be missed cuts at longer courses – but on this Par 70 stretch of the tour he is coming into his own. Six of his last eight rounds have been in the 60s, so we have no reservations about his ball striking. At a course where we suspect length will not be an advantage-maker, there’s no reason why Hearn can’t post low numbers again. T10 at the St. Jude and T8 at the Travelers on courses that correlate in terms of length to Potomac is handy momentum (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).
Head-to-head matchup
D. Hearn +124 over K. Na (Risking 1 unit to win 1.24 units).
MacKenzie Hughes 140-1
Why stop at DeLaet and Hearn? We’ll go for a trifecta of Canadians here because Hughes was one of the first of the new batch of Web.com Tour graduates to break his PGA TOUR duck at the RSM Classic, and while his maiden tour campaign has shown inconsistencies – natural really given the step up in class – Hughes burst back to form at the Travelers last week. There he finished T12 but gained a whopping +2.289 strokes with his putter and if the short stick is hot – and the rest of your game follows – then excellent things are achievable. The upward curve is no surprise to anyone that witnessed his T16 return at THE PLAYERS Championship, and Hughes’ short but methodical game should stand in good stead at Potomac. Nice overlay here (Risking 0.2 units to win 28 units).
James Hahn 55-1
It was something of a surprise that James Hahn didn’t play in the Travelers last week at a track that would presumably suit him, but not to worry as that means he will be fresh for this week in an event he should go well in. As one of the tour’s shorter hitters, naturally Par 70 set-ups suit his game more readily and decent showings at Byron Nelson (third) and the Memorial (T6 at a short Par 70) confirm the point. Hahn’s ability to find fairways and greens on time should be useful this week, as will an impressive touch on Bentgrass greens, as he gained an outstanding +1.498 strokes on the field with his putter at the Memorial. He is also one of the few who has played this course competitively – T36 at that Neediest Kids Championship back in 2012 – so a few different factors are converging quite nicely for Hahn this week (Risking 0.2 units to win 11 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
J. Hahn -127 over O. Schniederjans (Risking 1.27 units to win 1 unit).
Jason Kokrak 66-1
Having finished T26 at the Travelers, you might assume that Kokrak produced what we might term a “competent performance” but digging down into his numbers reveals otherwise. He gained +2.105 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – a metric that typically defines how well a player is striking the ball – and only six men in the field outperformed him for this measure. There was also +1.669 strokes gained on approach and only three players bettered that effort. So why didn’t Kokrak finish top 10, as the absolute minimum, then? Well, because his putter was ice cold: -0.785 with the short stick. But what we do know is that good putting comes and goes – one day it can click and everything sinks – and so for that reason it might just be worth having Kokrak on side this week. His upward trend appears ready to continue and if his putter gets as hot as the rest of his game, we don’t want to miss out (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
J. Kokrak +111 over A. Hadwin (Risking 1 unit to win 1.11 units).
Head-to-head matchups
These wagers are over 72-holes and will be played either at BET365 or Pinnacle. We previously had listed these head-to-head matchups under the individual names to win but we’ll list the unrelated one’s here.
Matchup of the Week
Danny Lee -125 over J.B. Holmes
Danny Lee was very close to making our winners list because there is no question that he has the ability to win here. Had he been more than 35-1, we would’ve absolutely had him on our slate even though 35-1 is nothing to sneeze at (29-1 at Pinnacle). At BET365, however, we find Lee favored over Holmes and we’re going to pounce for 2 units.
With three top-10s in his last five starts, there aren’t many players on the PGA TOUR who are in as good form as Danny Lee at present, and he will be hoping to covert that into silverware this week. Most pleasing is that each of those has come at what we might consider correlated courses – Colonial, Muirfield Village, and TPC River Highlands are all Par 70s, which confirms Lee’s love of shorter stretches. Like many other players in the ascendancy, Lee’s stats don’t read that well given his poor start to the campaign, but his key numbers at the Travelers – he gained at least a shot on the field from tee-to-green and with his putter – highlight just how well he is playing (Risking 2.5 units to win 2).
For Fantasy Players:
We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is:
Rickie Fowler
That first major title continues to elude the world number nine, who really should have converted at the US Open. An opening round of 65 got Fowler into a winning position and a third round of 68 kept him in contention. But once again Sunday proved to be his downfall, and in the end he had to settle for a T5 finish. But add that to his T11 return at Augusta and clearly, we have a player for whom a big win is surely a probable rather than a possible outcome. Fowler has help up in run of the mill events too with top-10s at the Memorial, Houston Open, and Phoenix Open as well as victory at the Honda Classic. In 13 starts he has notched six top-10 finishes, which is an incredible conversion rate of nearly 50%. Even his missed cuts come with caveats. The first was at the Zurich Classic, a team event which you sense some of the pairs took more seriously than others. And then of course there was the FedEx St. Jude Classic, when you sense his attention was focused on Erin Hills rather than a tilt at the title there. His game should presumably be well suited to TPC Potomac given that he is brilliant off the tee and in finding greens, and you won’t find many whose record on Bentgrass greens can match that of Fowler.
With his key stats being Total Driving – 1st, SG: Total – 2nd and SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th, Fowler is simply too good to leave what could be a mountain of points on the table.
Others worth considering in DFS are:
Bill Haas (could be your horse if you don’t want to spend that much on Fowler)
It’s hard to overlook Haas’ record in this event; particularly when we factor in a top-five in his last outing into the mix. A 3-4 double whammy in the last two years of Quicken Loans action confirms that he is able to adapt his game to different courses and maybe he just loves playing golf in the Maryland Area? Haas is a six-time PGA TOUR winner and you suspect he isn’t done quite yet. Maybe that journey has started already. Haas played some fine golf to finish T5 at the US Open and that had followed a T12 at the Dean & DeLuca Invitational. It’s an event that is a footnote rather than noteworthy, but Haas also finished T4 in the CSV Classic a couple of days after Erin Hills.
Luke List:
Luke List remains a real headscratcher for fans of deep stats because his numbers suggest he should be challenging for titles week in and week out. It doesn’t ever seem to pan out that way for the 32-year-old, although it has to be said he played supremely well last time out the St. Jude Classic. A middle pair of 66s getting him into contention before a final round of 73 left him in T18. That was a Par 70 though, which shows the big hitter can find a way on short courses. He gained +2.79 strokes from tee-to-green there and ranks 22nd for the same stat on tour, so if he could just get his putter going, he would be a genuine contender for honors. He may miss the cut but he’s always underpriced.
Morgan Hoffman
Hoffman is one of the few players in this field with a competitive start at Potomac to his name and that was a nice T6 there in 2012. That will give him plenty of confidence, as will a decent run of form in the past few months. He finished T2 at the Honda Classic back in February as a nod to his quality and in the past few weeks has made four out of five cuts; each resulting in a top 30 finish. The obvious standouts are the pair of T12 returns at Wells Fargo and Dean & Deluca; proving that he can shoot low numbers and in good company too.
MIKE ANTHONY
Colorado vs. San Francisco
Play: Colorado -117
Mark Reynolds looks like the ultimate constant - for Colorado and one of the best power hitters in MLB with 18 dingers and a rock solid .298 avg. How they are going to deal with that - is very tough to figure out for San Francisco. Charlie Blackmon is also a slight threat to steal bags as his numbers have shown - so the staff of San Francisco better keep an eye out. There is still serious concerns over the Giants pitching - considering they have not been putting players down at the plate and have a lousy 4.28 ERA currently. Blach cannot pitch his way out of a paper bag right now - allowing 18 hits over the last 9 innings pitched - his high ended ERA of 4.86 is going to balloon.
ROCKETMAN
St Louis vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -131
The St Louis Cardinals travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. St Louis is 35-41 SU overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 50-28 SU overall record on the season. Adam Wainwright is 7-5 with a 5.35 ERA overall this year, 2-4 with a 9.48 ERA on the road this season and 1-1 with a 7.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Zack Godley is 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA overall this year, 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA at home this season and 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. Arizona is scoring 6.3 runs per game at home this year, 5.4 runs per game against right handed starters, 7.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.3 runs per game at night this season. Arizona is allowing only 3.8 runs per game overall this year, 3.8 runs per game at home this season, 3.3 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 3.8 runs per game on grass and 3.8 runs per game at night. St Louis is 2-7 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Arizona is 30-10 at home this season. Arizona is 40-20 this year against right handed starters. Arizona is 32-14 this year against teams with a losing record. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight!
Brandon Lee
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Play: Milwaukee -111
Simply too good a price to pass up on Milwaukee with Chase Anderson on the mound, especially against a below-average Reds team that will send out Luis Castillo for his second career start. Anderson has been outstanding this season, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 15 starts. He's shown no signs of slowing down and has a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts. Castillo lasted just 5 innings in his debut at Washignton and while he only allowed 2 runs, his 5 walks are a sign of bad things to come. Very fortunate that the 2 home runs he gave up were both solo shots.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Rays vs. Pirates
Play:Rays +118
This line looks a little "funny" and, when that is the case I always like to investigate. In this case you have Pittsburgh as a very small home favorite even though they are at home and Ivan Nova is 5-2 in home starts this season and they're facing a Rays team that has Blake Snell on the mound and he is 0-4 on the season! Not only does the line look like a bit of a "trap" I also like the movement on this line as the majority of wagers (at least early on) have come in on the Pirates and yet the line has moved toward the Rays. Why is that? It's of course because the bigger dollars (and sharper money) are coming in on the road dog! Tampa's Snell does have 16 strikeouts in the 15 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts so he does have potential to give the Pirates lineup some issues here. This is his first ever start against them so that is an edge whereas Pittsburgh's Nova has faced the Rays 3 times in the past 24 months and he has been roughed up and gone 1-2 in those starts! Also, the Pirates have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall while the Rays have won 6 of their last 9 games overall. Look for the "upset" in this one!
MIKE LUNDIN
Rockies vs. Giants
Play:Rockies -117
The Colorado Rockies have lost seven straight after Tuesday's marathon 14 inning loss here at AT&T Park. I think they'll end that nasty skid here with Kyle Freeland (8-5, 3.70 ERA) on the mound. The 24 year old rookie southpaw has been knocked around in each of his last two road starts, but he's had a terrific year overall and we can note that the Giants are 0-4 in their last four games vs. a left-handed starter.
San Francisco turns to another rookie left-hander in Ty Blach (4-5, 4.86 ERA). The Giants have lost each of his last four starts, and Blach himself has been charged with 22 runs and 37 hits in 21 1/3 innings for a 9.28 ERA during that span. The Rockies have the third best batting average in the National League against left-handers.
The Rockies are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings despite last night's defeat.
JACK JONES
Yankees vs. White Sox
Play: Yankees -135
The Chicago White Sox are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall. They are in over their heads here when you consider the starting pitching matchup against the New York Yankees tonight.
Carlos Rodon makes his 2017 debut here and will be on a pitch count for the White Sox. Rodon is 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA and 2.571 WHIP in three career starts against New York, giving up 15 earned runs and 36 base runners in 14 innings.
Masahiro Tanaka is 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three starts. Tanaka has never lost to the White Sox, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in four career starts against them. He has given up just one run in 14 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.
Tanaka is 15-3 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. The Yankees are 15-2 in Tanaka's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. New York is 7-0 in Tanaka's last seven starts vs. AL Central opponents.
JOHN MARTIN
Rangers vs. Indians
Play:Rangers +109
Yu Darvish is having another dominant season for the Rangers. He has gone 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts this year, and 3-2 with a 2.23 ERA in seven road starts. He has posted a 3.62 ERA in five starts against the Indians in his career. He should not be a dog to Trevor Bauer, who is 6-6 with a 5.53 ERA in 15 starts for the Indians and is clearly the weak link in their rotation. Bauer also has a 4.36 ERA in three starts against the Rangers in his career. The Indians are 1-4 in their last five games and have scored a total of three runs in those four losses, so their offense is abysmal right now. The Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Texas is 8-3 in Darvish's last 11 road starts.
DAVE PRICE
Kansas City Royals +125
I like the price we are getting with the Kansas City Royals as road dogs to the Detroit Tigers Wednesday. Ian Kennedy has pitched very well of late as he's 1-0 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts. In his last 2 starts at Detroit, Kennedy has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 innings for a 1.50 ERA. Daniel Norris is 4-5 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 14 starts this year, and 2-3 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 6 home starts. Kansas City is a solid 22-14 (+12.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 2 of a series. The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.
MARK FRANCO
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Play: Milwaukee -111
Veteran catcher Stephen Vogt is expected to make his first start for Milwaukee on Wednesday night when the Brewers continue a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Vogt will be behind the plate for right-hander Chase Anderson, who has been among the team's most consistent starting pitchers over the past 12 months.
Despite an 8-6 loss on Tuesday, the Brewers (41-38) have won six of eight meetings this season against the Reds.
In his past 27 starts dating to last July, Anderson has gone 11-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 149 innings. He is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Anderson (6-2, 2.92 ERA) hasn't faced the Reds this season.
Brewers are 7-3 in Andersons last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Reds are 3-14 in their last 17 overall.
Andrew Lange
Colorado at San Francisco
Recommendation: Over 9
Expect the ball to be put in play and some this afternoon with Colorado's Kyle Freeland facing San Francisco's Ty Blach. Combined, the two lefties have tossed 167 innings and recorded only 88 strikeouts. And in 48 plate appearances, opposing pitchers have struck out only eight times against the soft-tossing duo. Regression has hit Blach in a big way. Over his first eight starts he flashed a 3.08 ERA including a complete game shutout vs. Philadelphia. Since that outing, he's been tagged for 22 runs in 21.1 innings. Freeland is perhaps a little more protected against a hard regression in that he garners a ton of ground balls (58.5%). But since his hot start (6 starts, 2.65 ERA) he's been far more hittable (9 starts, .295 BAA against, 8 home runs, 4.36 ERA). A few more starts at Coors and a Denver heat wave will be all it takes to see his numbers really start to bottom out. The question, however, is can these two below average offenses take advantage? Temps are expected to be in the low 60's but the wind is blowing out to left center which with two lefties on the hill, should yield a home run or two. You knew the 8.5 wasn't going to last but there's a clear reason why this total got played over.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND (-120) over Texas
Darvish has struggled against the Tribe, going just 1-4 in his career, including an 8-5 loss earlier this season. The Indians also have a huge edge in the bullpen department, as their relievers have a combined 2.29 ERA at home with the Ranger relievers have a 6.27 ERA on the road. Cleveland has already won four of five this season against the Rangers and get another “W” here tonight.
ASA
Dodgers vs. Angels
Play: Under 8½
This series now shits from Dodger Stadium to Anaheim but we expect the low-scoring results to continue. The Dodgers have stayed under the total in 4 of their last 5 games and the Angels have recorded 4 straight unders. The two games between these teams at Dodger Stadium each ended up 4-0 finals. The total hits in those games averaged only 5.5 hits per team per game. There is just not a lot of offense being generated right now for either one of these clubs. The Dodgers Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-0 and has not allowed a single earned run in 16 innings over his two starts against the Angels in his career. The Angels Alex Meyer has never faced the Dodgers and they are likely to struggle in their first look at him as he has proven tough at home! Meyer has yet to be charged with a loss at home this season and he has compiled a stellar 2.02 ERA in his 5 starts at Angel Stadium! In his most recent home start he pitched 6 scoreless innings and struck out 9 batters in a fantastic outing. Only 1 of his 5 home starts has gone over the total and the under is 4-2 in Ryu's road starts this season. The under is 5-2 this season in Dodgers road games with a total set at 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The under is 25-15 in Dodgers games against teams with a winning record this season and the under is 17-10 in Angels games against teams with an above .500 record this season. The under is also 64-44 in Angels games versus southpaw starters in recent seasons. We expect another pitchers duel in the Battle for LA bragging rights!
LARRY WALLACE
Braves vs. Padres
Play: Padres -126
Colon while on the road is 1-4 with a 7.46 ERA. In his last 3 starts he is 0-3 with a 13.91 ERA. Perdomo in his last 3 starts is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA. The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Colon on the mound against a team with a losing record. The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with Perdomo on the mound.