JESSE SCHULE
Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -126
The Rays won 4-2 at Pittsburgh last night, but they are still below .500 on the road this season. They face the Pirates ace tonight, and I like Pittsburgh to bounce back with a win in Game 2. Ivan Nova will toe the slab for the Bucs, and he's been fantastic since arriving in Steel Town. He's 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts at home this season, and he was 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 14 starts at PNC Park last season. The Rays hand the ball to southpaw Blake Snell, who is coming off the DL to make his first start since mid May. The 24 year old was torched for 10 runs on 16 hits and four walks over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts. He's 0-4 with a 4.71 ERA in eight starts overall this season. The Rays have lost seven of Snell's last nine starts, and eight of his last 10 road starts. The Pirates have won four of Nova's last five home starts.
Eric Schroeder
After hitting my free winner for Monday on the Over in the Texas Rangers-Cleveland Indians showdown at Progressive Field, I nailed the Baltimore Orioles with Kevin Gausman, over the Toronto Blue Jays and Joe Biagini, last night with my comp play.
Tonight I'm rolling with another total, as I love the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds to stay Under the posted number.
Anderson rolls into this matchup after pitching six strong innings in the Brewers’ win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The crafty right-hander allowed two runs on two hits with seven strikeouts and two walks. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in six straight starts, during which he's compiled a 1.32 ERA. He will be at his best on the road today.
Meanwhile, the Reds are handing the ball to Castillo, who earned a second start after allowing two runs in five innings in his Major League debut last Friday, against the hard-hitting Washington Nationals. The 24-year-old right-hander is the organization's No. 5 prospect, according to MLBPipeline.com, and could very well be the heir apparent to this staff one day.
Both pitchers will be out to prove their relevance, and I like this one stay low.
3* Brewers-Reds Under
Jack Brayman
Now on a 14-5 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Phoenix, as I like the Arizona Diamondbacks over the St. Louis Cardinals.
Just when you thought it was safe to count out the Snakes, they slither back into the picture.
Arizona's engine is still revving off six straight series wins. The Diamonbacks come in having won 16 of 19, incuding three against the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, and last night's win over the Redbirds.
The Diamondbacks, who are 30-10 at home, held their own while the Los Angeles Dodgers surged past everyone and into first place via a 10-game win streak. After last night's win, and a win by the Dodgers, the D'backs are sitting just 1 1/2 games back in the National League West.
St. Louis, which is 15-21 on the road this season, is mired in a 13-22 slide, in the midst of playing 47 games in 48 days leading up to the All-Star break.
The Cardinals fail here, while the Diamondbacks continue to win.
4* DIAMONDBACKS
Chris Jordan
My free play is in H-town, as I like the Oakland Athletics to get it done over the Astros at home, in Houston.
Real quick analysis here, just like last night with my 300♦ underdog winner on the A's, as there isn't much more to say except revenge.
Oakland's Jesse Hahn just took a loss against these same Houston Astros last Thursday, when he was brutalized for 10 runs - nine of them earned - in just two innings of work. But the thing is, over just one of his previous 11 starts this season had he yielded more than three earned runs. He is much better than he showed us at home against the Astros, and will be out for revenge.
On the other hand, it was David Paulino who pitched the Astros to the win over Oakland and Hahn. The overpowering righty has won his last two starts, allowing four earned runs and 10 hits in 11.1 innings of labor. But that's a vast difference than what the 'Stros had been used to, as he allowed 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings over his first three starts of the year. I think he could make one too many mistakes in this game and get caught.
I'm taking Oakland with the value road price, and listing both pitchers.
5* ATHLETICS
Jeff Benton
Good spot to play the Rays, as Tampa Bay has quietly moved to 3 games over .500 as we head to the All-Star Break. The Rays have won 6 of their last 9, including last night's 4-2 win in 10 innings over a Pittsburgh team that has dropped 4 of their last 6 games.
Tampa starter Blake Snell is still searching for his first win of the 2017 season, as he enters this one with an 0-4 mark, and his team just 2-8 when he does start.
Ivan Nova has found a home with the Pirates, and has really done a good job of keeping his team in the hunt in most of his starts. Nova is a known commodity to the Rays from his days with the Yankees in the American League, and I have an inkling that Tampa is going to get to Nova and hand him the loss.
With the Yankees slumping, the Rays have a real shot to pass them before the All-Star Break and take over second in the competitive A.L. East, look for Tampa to knock off Pittsburgh for the second straight night.
2* TAMPA BAY
Brad Wilton
Freeway Series resumes down the road in Anaheim tonight after a split in Los Angeles. Each team winning 4-0 in those 2 games contested at Chavez Ravine.
Have to lay the small road wood with the Dodgers tonight, as they have been way too hot to go against right now. The Dodgers have lost just twice in their last 19 games, so it's sort of pointless to pick the night they are going to slip up.
The Angels had won 3 straight prior to last night's shutout loss, and they will go with Alex Meyer who stands at 3-4 in limited duty this season. The team is just 3-7 in his season starts, and while Hyun-Jin Ryu has not had a stellar campaign, his team is simply smoking right now, so I will lay it with the Dodgers.
Play on the National League Los Angeles.
4* L.A. DODGERS
STEPHEN NOVER
NY Mets +104
Steven Matz and Jeff Locke are both left-handed. But that is where the similarity ends. Matz is one of the better young pitchers in baseball. Locke is a stiff, who is a near auto-fade whenever he toes the rubber especially at this price.
Locke is brutal again this season with an 0-3 mark and 5.70 ERA. He hasn't reached the fifth inning during his past two starts. Locke has made four career starts against the Mets and is 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in those outings.
Buster Sports
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets +102
The NY Mets play game 2 of their 3 game set against the Marlins in Miami and they are looking to even up the series tonight and we believe they will do just that. The starting pitchers are for the Mets LH Steven Matz (1-1, 3.60 ERA) and he faces the Marlins LH Jeff Locke (0-3, 5.70 ERA) Matz has a 1.59 ERA in two starts in Marlins Park in his career and this year in his only two road starts he has a solid 2.77 ERA with a WHIP of 1.077. We see Matz putting in a nice quality start against the Marlins tonight. As for Locke he hasn't found a win yet in 5 starts this year. His last 3 starts have been really bad sporting an ugly 7.43 ERA with a WHIP of 1.875. The Mets have won their last 2 games against LH starters and little over a week ago put up 6 runs off the best LH pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw. We are getting the Mets as the smallest of dogs here which we will gladly take.
Bryan Leonard
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -130
1% edge in the starting pitcher matchup with Kennedy and Norris, along with a slim 1% relief edge for the Tigers. Defensively these teams are completely even, but when it comes to offense it's all Tigers. A 17% advantage overall, a whopping 23% edge home/away and a 9% lefty/righty advantage. That's puts us squarely on the host in this price range.
Oskeim Sports
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -126
Atlanta right-hander Bartolo Colon has been activated from the disabled list (oblique injury) and gets the start tonight against the Padres. Prior to getting injured, Colon had posted a 7.78 ERA, 5.12 FIP and 4.95 SIERA across twelve starts, a span covering 59.0 innings of work.
Colon has been susceptible to the long ball (1.68 HR/9) and posted his highest walk rate (2.59 BB/9) since 2009. To be fair, Colon has been victimized by an unsustainable .353 BABIP (career .295 BABIP) and an unlucky 48.5% strand rate (career 72.6% LOB%).
“We’re going to break him out,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “He threw a bullpen on Sunday and everything was good, so we just wanted to make sure after the off day to see how he was feeling. It’s all a go for Wednesday.”
San Diego sends Luis Perdomo to the mound, who toes the rubber in excellent form with a 2.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his last three starts. The 24-year-old excels at keeping the ball on the ground as evidenced by his elite 65.1% ground ball rate.
The Padres are a profitable 4-1 in Perdomo’s last five home starts and 4-0 in his last four home outings against teams with a losing record. San Diego is also 10-4 in its last fourteen home games versus teams with a losing road record and 5-2 in its last seven home affairs against .499 or worse opposition.
I should also note that the Braves have lost 14 of their last seventeen games within the spacious confines of Petco Park. Perdomo owns a decent 3.72 FIP and a 3.80 xFIP at home this season, together with a minuscule 0.60 HR/9 rate.
The underrated right-hander boasts an incredible 68.2% ground ball rate at Petco Park. An unlucky 66.9% strand rate is the reason for Perdomo’s misleading 4.60 at home in 2017.
Bob Balfe
Braves +115
The Padres continue to be the worst hitting team in the majors. San Diego can’t hit right handed pitching which is the kiss of death in baseball. There is no way this team should be favored by this much and there is great value in taking any team they play at even money or in this case a small dog.