DAVE COKIN
DODGERS AT BREWERS
PLAY: DODGERS -115
Brock Stewart has been called up to fill the #5 slot for the Dodgers. His stock has skyrocketed this season with some spectacular minor league numbers. Stewart’s last two AAA starts were beyond dominating, and he could be a live newcomer for LA.
Stewart now throws mid-90’s and has been touching 96, plus he has two sliders and an improving change. Scouts have raved about his poise. So I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by the surroundings, and the fact he’s opening on the road is probably a plus as far as that goes.
Junior Guerra has been a very pleasant surprise for the Brewers, although I still see him as strictly a mid-rotation type. There’s no denying Guerra has exceeded expectations since getting promoted, and he has been in pretty solid form. But the overall numbers are those of a #3-4 starting pitcher, so I’m not intimidated by the prospect of trying to beat him this evening.
The Dodgers have now won 10 of their last 14, so the team is in good form. The Brewers have been pesky and have a winning record at home, so this is by no means a snap. But I like the idea of backing the unseen rookie who has been throwing it extremely well. Therefore I’m willing to spot a short price on the road with the Dodgers tonight.
Sleepyj
Cubs / Reds Under 9
I like this one under here...Cubs have gone a little cold and so have the Reds..Both pitchers have the stuff to get these guys out if the bats are slow today..Hendricks can strike guys out in bunches and Reed has been rather good IMO..He has enough stuff in the tank to both the Cubs on the road here..9 seems a bit high as I made my number 8o20...I'll grab the 9 needing 10 to beat us.
CFL - Ottawa...I don't watch or cap the CFL, but a trusted source gave me Ottawa at PK.
Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +107
Milwaukee looks to bounce back from last night's 6-5 loss to the Dodgers and the Brewers are getting value opening as a short home underdog. Brock Stewart will make his major league debut for Los Angeles after starting the season at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga but the right-hander has a tough assigmnent on the road in a hitters park. Junior Guerra is 4-1 with a 3.67 ERA and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 10 starts, including a 4-2 win at Oakland last Wednesday when he allowed two runs and five hits in seven innings. Guerra has struck out 65 batters in 74 2/3 innings and arguably is the best pitcher on the Brewers starting staff. Also, the righty has pitched better at home where he has a 3.09 ERA with 26 strikeouts and only nine walks in 32 innings.
Marc Lawrence
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Twins +104
Edges - Twins: Ricky Nolasco 3.92 ERA away as opposed to 5.80 ERA home this season. White Sox: James Shields 3-12 teams starts with 6.12 ERA and 1.70 WHIP this season, including 1-6 with 11.79 ERA and 2.41 ERA last seven. With the Pale Hose just 12-18 in division frays this season, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Colorado
Pick: Toronto
I gave out the Blue Jays last night as a premium release (they won 14-9) and offer up a small recommendation here on Getaway Day. While Toronto's offense was "a little slow" to come around (compared to LY's historic production), Tuesday marked the 7th time since June 11th that they scored 10 or more runs in game.
Though the Jays might not be leading the league in runs scored as they did in 2015, they still rank 7th, which isn't bad at all. Obviously, Coors Field is a place where you'd expect the numbers to go up. Yesterday marked in season high in both runs and hits. There was a lengthy rain delay (almost three hours!), but it certainly didn't affect the Toronto offense, which scored in each of the final seven innings. As a reminder, visiting teams are averaging nearly 7.0 rpg here at Coors this season.
I was right to believe that yday's starter for Colorado (Eddie Butler) had little chance of slowing down the Jays and I feel the same way about Tyler Anderson, who gets the baseball today. Anderson is still winless after three starts and this will be - by far - the best lineup he's faced to date. Toronto counters w/ Aaron Sanchez, who will be looking to make it three consecutive quality starts. He's also allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. Had Toronto not blown a four-run lead Monday, they'd be in position for a sweep. They'll have to settle for "just" winning the series now.
Big Al
Pittsburgh vs. Seattle
Pick: Over
There was much hype at the beginning of the season surrounding the pending debuts of a pair of Pirates pitching prospects, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. But it was much lesser-known Chad Kuhl who stole the spotlight last week when he beat the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw in his MLB debut on National TV. And whereas Glasnow has yet to make his MLB appearance, the original hype around Taillon has waned amid his inconsistent performances of late. After a stellar eight-inning outing against the Mets in his second start, Taillon has thrown in a pair of almost identically-dull four-inning efforts against the Cubs and Dodgers. He will try to improve on that tonight in Seattle against one of the best offenses in the AL. LHP Wade Miley takes the mound for the M's and although he missed two starts while on the 15-day DL with a sore left shoulder, Miley threw four hit-less innings in a rehab start Friday for Class-A Everett. But the veteran southpaw has a 7.09 ERA in his last five starts. Finally, runs have not been a problem in Bucs games this season as the over is 47-29 when Pittsburgh plays.
Jim Feist
Twins at White Sox
Pick: Over
Minnesota can't pitch, 29th in baseball in team ERA (5.17), last in the AL. Minnesota is on a 39-13-3 run over the total, 16-7-2 over on the road. Ricky Nolasco (3-5, 4.95 ERA) goes here and lasted 6.2 innings in Thursday's loss to the Phillies, 7-3. He allowed four runs, 10 hits and four walks while striking out one. Chicago is 5-1 over the total following an off day. The White Sox go with struggling James Shields (2-9, 6.33 ERA), who looks washed up. And the Over is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings in Chicago.
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Indians on the Run Line over the Braves.
The Indians winning streak is now up to a gaudy 11 straight games after last night's 5-3 win over the Braves, and there is no reason to think a loss is in the cards tonight when Atlanta sends Joel De La Cruz to the mound for his first big league start tonight.
Danny Salazar will counter for the Tribe, and he is looking for his 10th win of the season versus just 3 defeats.
Salazar is on a personal 5 game winning streak, and right now all systerms are go for Terry Francona's team.
Indians continue their steam roll with another victory by 2 runs or better.
Tribe on the Run Line.
4* CLEVELAND -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for Wednesday is on the Atlanta Braves, over the Cleveland Indians, and in this one I want you listing only one scheduled starter, as I play Atlanta's Joel De La Cruz in his Major League debut.
Atlanta's 27-year-old makes his debut after 21 appearances in the minors including five starts, all at Triple-A Gwinnett. As a starter, he went 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA and had a 4.68 ERA overall. But he was also working extensively on mechanics and several of his pitches, and things like that tend to favor hitters.
De La Cruz is a talented pitcher with a tremendous upside. I'm not necessarily sure this is the right organization for him, however. He should thrive tonight, as the Indians will let their guard down against the rookie.
Cleveland is in on an 11-game win streak, and has won 23 of 41 on the road this season. The Tribe was on a mini-run when the NBA Finals were taking place, but caught fire even more so once the trophy was delivered by LeBron.
It's time for the run to end.
Cleveland will take De La Cruz lightly, and the Braves will get the win here.
4* BRAVES
Brad Wilton
My Wednesday comp play is the Mariners over the Pirates.
Maybe the Mariners should relocate to the Senior Circuit! Seattle has owned the National League this season, going 9-2 in interleague action. That includes last night's 5-2 series opener.
Tonight it's Wade Miley's turn to notch the win. Miley is back from the disabled list to make the start tonight, and while his ERA is not where it should be, he has found a way to go 6-3 for the Mariners.
Pittsburgh is on a 1-10 road dive their last 11 games, and they will go with rookie Jameson Taillon who is making just his 5th start of the season. Taillon has allowed 8 runs on 16 hits in his last 8 innings pitched, so look for the M's to get some solid wood on his pitches tonight at Safeco Field.
Go with the Mariners to make it a 10-2 interleague run.
5* SEATTLE
JEFF ALEXANDER
Nationals -1.5 +111
Washington has outscored the Mets 16-4 in the first two games of the series and I look for another blowout win in the finale. The Nationals will send out their ace Max Scherzer, who has a 3.32 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.39 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in 8 career starts against New York. The Mets are a mess right now. Their starters can't stay healthy and the offense can't score runs. New York is hitting just .231 as a team against right-handed starters and are forced to turn to Logan Verrett with Matz not able to make his scheduled start. Verrett has made 4 spot starts and has a 5.78 ERA and 1.768 WHIP in those outings.
ART ARONSON
Twins/White Sox Over 10
The visitors hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who gave up four runs off ten hits with four walks to just one K over six innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Thursday. His four walks were a season high and his one K was a season low. Note that Nolasco has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going 1-3 with an atrocious 6.47 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side counters with the beleagured James Shields (2-9, 6.22) who comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up three runs off five hits with four walks over five innings vs. the Red Sox on Thursday. His 9:17 K:BB ratio over his last five starts is one of the worst in MLB history. No need to overthink this one, with these two volatile hurlers going head-to-head on Wednesday night, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
BRANDON LEE
Twins +105
Minnesota has won two straight, including yesterday's 4-0 win over the White Sox in the series opener. I got no problem riding the Twins while their hot against Chicago with James Shields on the mound. There's clearly something not right with Shields. He's 2-9 with a 6.22 ERA and 1.703 WHIP in 15 starts. He's 0-2 with a 15.80 ERA and 3.07 WHIP in 4 starts since being traded to the White Sox. Until he shows something, I think you have to keep fading him, especially at this price. Minnesota will send out Ricky Nolasco, who has a very respectable 3.92 ERA and 1.186 WHIP over 7 road starts this season. Chicago is 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 1-5 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Orioles vs. Padres
Play: Orioles -131
With their 11-7 win yesterday, the Orioles have now won 6 straight games. Baltimore has averaged nearly 8 runs per game in their last 9 games and the Padres just don't have the offense to keep up with them. San Diego has been getting some higher run totals of late but they're really not swinging the bats all that well. Yesterday's game marked the 5th time in their last 6 games that the Padres have been held to 8 hits or less. Though I rarely play favorites in money line sports, the Orioles are in a small enough price range that they are well worth an investment Wednesday. The O's are also a perfect 3-0 this season as a road fave of -125 to -150 this season. Also, when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, Baltimore has gone 12-5 this season. The Padres are an ugly 3-11 as a home dog of +125 to +150 this season. San Diego is also a horrific 6-19 (24%) this season in day games! The better team at a fair price here and Gallardo has pitched a little better in his last 2 starts while Friedrich has a 5.57 ERA in his home starts this season and overall has allowed 10 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two starts.
BRAD DIAMOND
Rays +1½ -108
Seemingly, the line (-170) favoring the Red Sox is over stated considering LHP Price's (2-1/3 innings 12 hits and 6 earned runs) Texas effort last time out. In his last ten teams starts Price (8-4, 4.68) and Boston are 6-4, which is much more productive than Moore and TBs 2-8 L10 starts on the hill. The winning key for the Rays today is a solid outing by Moore with the Rays 24-10 (2.68) when he achieves 6 innings or more on the hill. Last time out Moore pitched in Camden Yards where he surrendered 7 hits and 5 runs in 6-2/3 innings. Remember the Orioles are the hottest hitting team in Baseball with Adam Jones streaking. Boston is 42-35, 4-1/2 games (second) behind Baltimore in the East. TB trying to effectively get back to the .500 legend is 32-44. However, this is an important bounce back game for the Rays who are 1-12 L13 times out. They catch Price as a stiff road chalk at a huge number, but the Sox are 0-6 L6 games versus LHP and 1-6 game #3 of a series. And balls and strikes umpire Welke is 4-0 with TB last four games. For a small play try the Rays +1-1/2 runs in what should be a close call, no matter.