Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, May 24th, 2017

Scott Rickenbach

Blue Jays vs. Brewers
Play: Under 9

Matt Garza has been the Brewers best pitcher early this season and has a 2.43 ERA on the year with a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, the under is 11-2 in his 13 starts against the Blue Jays in his career for those of you that like historical data. By the way, even though his 2.14 ERA against Toronto was compiled many years ago, the fact that Garza hasn't faced the Jays since 2010 is also an edge for him as the Blue Jays hitters lack familiarity with him. Look for his strong start to this season to continue here while Toronto's Marcus Stroman should also prove tough on the Brewers. Stroman pitched a complete gem against Milwaukee earlier this season but was a tough-luck loser in the 2-0 final in mid-April. He has been fantastic early this season and has been particularly sharp of late with a 1.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even when he gives up a few hits he gets out of jams by inducing ground ball outs or coming up with big strikeouts. I know the Brewers have been a strong play for overs this season but the under is now 3-0 in their games against the Blue Jays this season. Also, the under is 9-5 in Toronto's day games this season. With this total also moving up to a 9 (from an 8.5) in some spots, there is also added value with the under. Yesterday's game totaled only 7 runs and I would not be surprised to see a similar result today.

Scott Spreitzer

Marlins vs. A's
Play: A's -125

Miami comes off a win Tuesday night, but the Marlins still have lost eight of their last 11 games and 20 of their last 27 overall. Miami has lost Edinson Volquez's last five starts and seven of his eight starts this season. Volquez gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings against the Dodgers on Thursday and that tied his longest stint of the season. Volquez is 0-6 with a 4.87 ERA, including 0-4 and 5.26 on the road. Sonny Gray didn't make his first appearance until May 2 due to a lat injury, but he has pitched well his last two starts allowing five earned runs on nine hits and just one home run in 12 innings against the Rangers and Red Sox. Oakland has had a rough time on the road, but the Athletics are 14-10 at home and the Marlins are 1-6 their last seven road games versus right-handed starters.

Marc Lawrence

Pirates vs. Braves
Play:Pirates +133

Edges - Pirates: 15-7 L22 games in this series… Braves: Teheran 5-18 last 23 overall home team starts, including 1-4 with 10.50 ERA and 2.00 ERA this season, and 0-6 L6 home team starts during May… With the Braves just 1-4 home in Game Three of a series this season, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.

Mike Anthony

Miami Marlins vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics -125

The A's are veteran team with tough road ahead - which is currently keeping them out of race in a very tough AL West division. Oakland's 2B Jed Lowrie, is having a better than normal batting avg on the season at .278 and has also leading the team in hit, as of 5.21.2017 - bottom line - Miami, who are even worse off, is still just not going to be able to score with them. Christian Yelich going to be a good player - with his strong bat, but the 4 year Miami CF is still struggling with hitting stuff towards the bottom of the plate. Miami has not been great in simply getting on base to create very the much needed runs - Oakland players will abuse that.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Pick: Over

The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in last place in the NL Central with a 20-26 record and 5.5 back of the Brewers. The Bucs have lost two straight games after Tuesday's 6-5 loss to the Braves. Trevor Williams will start tonight for Pittsburgh. Williams has worked a lot out of the pen and compiled a 6.04 ERA. Control has been an issue, as Williams has walked 10 in his last six appearances and struck out just eight. Despite having a losing record (20-23) the Braves are in 2nd in the NL East, 6.5 back of 1st place Washington. The Braves have won two straight games and seven of the last 10. Julio Teheran will toe the rubber today for the Braves with a 3-4 record and 5.47 ERA. Teheran got bounced around in his last start, going just three innings and allowing eight hits, nine runs and three home runs. Two very shaky pitchers on the hill today and that means I'm taking the OVER.

SPORTS WAGERS

ARIZONA -1½ +176 over Chicago

Seriously? The South Side evenly priced in the desert here is incorrect but this market prefers the familiar and reliable Jose Quintana to the rather unknown Randall Delgado. That works in our favor big time.

With off-season trades, Jose Quintana became Chicago’s No. 1 starter in the off-season and he’s answered the bell with six quality starts in nine tries but quality starts are a loosely used term. Quintana comes in with a 3.92/4.37 ERA/xERA split. Quintana isn’t exactly struggling but he’s not flourishing either and it can’t be attributed to poor fortune, since his hit % and strand % rates hover around average. His xERA shows a bit of a slide in skills. His big problem has been walks with 24 already in 57 frames. He’s also giving up a few more fly balls, which is not a desired trait in Guaranteed Rate Field or at this park. The market likes his reliability and nice looking surface stats but he’s no ace and he’s also hittable. Again, playing for the South Side, Jose Quintana CANNOT be evenly priced against Arizona at Chase Field.

Enter Randall Delgado, a pitcher that has been around the majors and minors since 2011 and that has not found his footing just yet. In 250 MLB appearances since 2011, Delgado has started 48 games and has pitched to a career 4.14 ERA. He’s had some outstanding stretches too and at the age of 27, he may now be ready to thrive. Delgado can pile up tons of strikeouts. He has two of the most dominant pitches in the game (29% swing and miss rate on his changeup and a 25% swing and miss rate on his slider). We’re not just talking about this year either. Delgado has been throwing filthy stuff for quite some time and now he’s throwing for strikes. In 27 innings this season, Delgado has a BB/K split of 5/24. He is missing bats at an elite clip (14%) and attacking hitters early in counts (65% first-pitch strike rate). This “kid” has paid his dues and with his elite raw stuff, he should not be tucked away any longer. What great value here.
Colorado -1½ +134 over PHILADELPHIA

We see no reason to jump off this Rockies’ train just yet. The Rocks have won the first two games of this series by scores of 8-1 and 8-2 respectively and the starter they’ll face here, Jeremy Hellickson, is the worst of them all. On paper, it doesn’t look that way, as Hellickson has a 5-1 record and 3.44 ERA after nine starts but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Hellickson has one good skill, which is control, as he’s walked just nine batters in 50 frames. Things do downhill from there. Hellickson’s 20 K’s in 50 innings is atrocious. His few strikeouts are supported by his 6% swing and miss rate. His groundball/fly-ball split of 34%/45% does not compensate for his lack of K’s. His career HR issue is a reminder that if luck reverse doesn’t get to him, allowing jacks will. . This can and likely will blow up quickly on Hellickson, especially against a team that cannot wait to get back to the park.

Tyler Chatwood’s numbers (5.09 ERA) are also misleading but his correction will be to the good. Chatwood has an elite 56% groundball rate, which is the third highest in the game among qualified starters. His 41 K’s in 53 frames is low when you consider his 12% swing and miss rate. More K’s per nine are on the way. Chatwood is now in his second season back from TJS and he’s getting stronger by the week. His fastball is up to 95 MPH, which is another positive sign moving forward. Perhaps most importantly, Chatwood will now face a team that has scored three runs over its last three games and that is using different lineups every day. The Phillies are reeling.

St. Louis +138 over LOS ANGELES

As a -243 favorite last night with Clayton Kershaw on the hill, the Dodgers squeezed out a 13-inning, 2-1 victory. That shows how risky big favorites are and this one is especially risky. Rich Hill sits 2nd to only Kershaw in ERA and WHIP since 2015 (min. 130 IP), but he's 164th of 173 qualified pitchers in innings pitched during that time. Hill’s skills aren't in question, even at 37 years old, but he’s always a risk to leave the game because of a recurring blister issue or some other injury. That uncertainty is not built into the cost here, which adds to the Cardinals appeal. Aside from that, Hill’s swing and miss rate is down to 8%. His xERA is 3.87 and even if the Cardinals can squeeze out a couple of runs, we have a shot. Incidentally, the possibility that they score three, four or more is also very real.

Mike Leake had a very disappointing first year in St. Louis on the surface, including a 6.03 ERA in his final 11 games started. However, a look deeper and we see a second half surge in strikeouts and swing and miss rate. Leake’s career best control from last year has carried over into this year, as Leake has walked just 10 batters in 53 frames. His typically high groundball rate has never been better than this year’s elite 54% rate. Five straight seasons with 30-plus starts shows reliability and while his 2.03 ERA this year isn low and in line for regression, his skills and xERA of 3.16 reveals that it’s all legit. This dude can pitch and he’s perhaps the most undervalued starter on the board today. Huge overlay against a seriously banged up Dodgers squad.

SPORTS WAGERS

Dean & Deluca Invitational

The PGA TOUR stays in Texas this week and rolls through to Fort Worth and Colonial Country Club, one of the most picturesque settings on the Tour. The Dean & Deluca Invitational may have changed names countless times over the years (due to sponsorship of course), but it remains one of the most reliably brilliant tournaments on the calendar.

There are obvious similarities between Colonial Country Club and TPC Four Seasons, although in some respects these are merely incidental. Both are Par 70, both are short (Colonial plays just 38 yards longer at 7,204 yards), and both are in Texas, and so harsh winds are experienced at both. But that’s pretty much where the similarities end. Colonial is tighter and tree-lined, so the wind can be less of a factor, and the greens are Bentgrass rather than Bermuda. These run at around 12 on the stimp too, so they are faster than those experienced last week.

The lack of length means that many holes are dog-legged, which requires excellent course management to negotiate, with water in play on six holes and strategically-placed bunkers keeping the hazard count high. Jordan Spieth’s winning mark of -17 last year suggests the course is tameable, although the tale of the tape is that in eight attempts at the pair of Par 5s, he birdied them seven times, so the secret to success at Colonial is fairly self-explanatory. The sheer nature of this Colonial Country Club test assures that a certain type of player thrives. You must be accurate off the tee, gain plenty of strokes from tee to green and putt well on what are some of the fastest greens outside of the majors. These fast Bentgrass greens take no prisoners.

And so it continues. After Si-Woo Kim chalked up a victory for the underdogs at THE PLAYERS Championship a couple of weeks ago, we were treated to another unlikely victor in Billy Horschel at the AT&T Byron Nelson last time out and there’s a great chance of another bomb winning here. Thus, once again, we’re not interested in anything under 35-1 because there are too many pros higher that have a great chance. Hopefully one or more of these will be in the running on Sunday.

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at

To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:

Ryan Palmer +3686

When the PGA TOUR rolls through Texas it’s a good idea to get Ryan Palmer on side. He saves his very best for the Lone Star State, and that has already been evidenced by a T6 return from the Texas Open and T27 at the Byron Nelson last time out, which could and perhaps should have been so much better. One thing we do know is that Palmer loves playing at Colonial. 11 of his last sixteen rounds at the course have been in the 60s, and in the past five editions of this event he has finished inside the top-five on three separate occasions. It’s strange because it’s not a course that naturally suits his long hitting game, but hey if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Palmer ranks 1st ON TOUR in Approaches from 125-150 Yards, 10th ON TOUR in Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th ON TOUR in Shots Gained: Approach-the-Green. For all you DFS players, Palmer is a bargain this week too so get him in your lineup (Risking 0.2 units to win 7.37 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

R. Palmer -108 over B. Cauley (Risking 1.08 units to win 1).

Nick Taylor 80-1

The Canadian’s T9 finish at the Byron Nelson was eye-catching for a number of reasons; not least that it maintains a decent stretch of form dating back to April that reads 22-22-MC-8-9. Equally as intriguing is that he played the final 36 holes at TPC Four Seasons at -9, and there weren’t many in the field that could match that. Thus, Taylor will head to Colonial Country Club in great spirits and in great form. He gained more than one stroke on the field both from tee-to-green and with his putter, and while his record at Colonial isn’t earth-shattering, he has made the cut on both occasions with a best of T27. Putting is generally Taylor’s Achilles heel – it’s the only strokes gained metric he is in negative figures for – but in ranking T19 for SG: Putting at Byron Nelson he is hinting at exciting things to come. Taylor ranks 30th ON TOUR in Scrambling. This is a big overlay on a pro that’s close to popping (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

N. Taylor +123 over S. Strickland (Risking 1 units to win 1.23 units).

Anirban Lahiri 140-1

The Indian finished T6 in his debut here 12 months ago, and that performance served notice of just how talented this player is. Despite driving an average of 291 yards, Lahiri is another player who thrives on short tracks. Witness his best finishes this season on U.S. soil in the RSM Classic (T13), CareerBuilder (T25), and Honda Classic (T11), all of which are played on courses of less than 7,300 yards. The wind won’t faze Lahiri, as he is a graduate of the European Tour after all, and short Texan tracks like this and that served up by Byron Nelson will surely be the scene of Lahiri’s best showings Stateside for years to come. Some key stats that come into play are Lahiri ranks 2nd ON TOUR in Putting average, 17th on TOUR in Birdie Average and 22 ON TOUR in Approaches from 150-175 yards. Man, is this a sweet price (risking 0.2 units to win 28 units)

Kyle Reifers 100-1

There are certain players who seem to stick their head above the parapet at certain times of the year, and Kyle Reifers in Texas is one such example. Looking back to 2015 he has since delivered a T11 finish at the Texas Open, T7 at the Houston Open, T10 at Byron Nelson, and a fifth place return here 12 months ago. Reifers still ranks just 138th in the FedExCup standings, however, he was 160th prior to a T20 at the AT&T Byron Nelson where he ranked T10 in greens in regulation and second in proximity to the hole. It was his second-best result in 10 months. His best finish of 2015-16 occurred at Colonial. En route to that solo fifth, he led the field in both Greens in Regulation (GIR) and proximity to the hole. He also ranked T2 in conversion percentage inside 10 feet, going 66-for-69. All of that speaks to his comfort level on this classic track, as he's perfect in four trips since 2012. What’s there not to like about 100-1? Reifers is another undervalued DFS choice as well (Risking 0.2 units to win 20).

Sung Kang 60-1

Kang is in too good form to ignore with five decent showings in his last five events: top-10’s at the Houston Open and Texas Open and a T20 last week at the Byron Nelson confirm his love of playing in this neck of the woods, while T11 at the RBC Heritage shows he can handle classic ball-striker’s tracks. We’re even happy enough with a T30 at THE PLAYERS Championship with three rounds of level par or better. Since his runner-up performance at the Shell Houston Open on the first Sunday in April, the 29-year-old is perfect in individual competition with four top 20’s and sits 29th in the FedExCup standings. He displayed a characteristically strong short game en route to that aforementioned T20 last week. For the season, Kang is T46 in GIR, 34th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 26th in Adjusted Scoring. This is his third appearance at Colonial and it’ll likely be his best (Risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).

Head-to-head matchup or 72-hole betting @ Bet365

Kang +100 over Danny Lee (Risking 1 unit).

Sean O’Hair 80-1

The Texan has shown some nice flourishes this season with five top-15 finishes in 15 starts, and the pick of those is perhaps the T5 he delivered at last week’s Byron Nelson. It’s well documented that Texans tend to bring their A Game when playing on home soil, and it’s no surprise to see O’Hair enjoy himself in front of his fellow man and woman. He finished 10-18-34 in his three outings in the Lone Star State last season, and looks well placed to build upon that at Colonial this week. This will be the ninth time in his career he has teed it up at Colonial so he won’t be found wanting when it comes to course knowledge. O’Hair has an excellent foundation to build on following his T5 at the Byron Nelson and now might be the time to catch him with a bit of momentum once again following missed cuts at The Masters and the Players (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Head-to-head matchup:

S. O’Hair +105 over C. Campbell (risking 1 unit to win 1.05).

For Fantasy Players:

We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is Sergio Garcia.

When making picks from the elite band of players at the head of the field, we have to ask ourselves one key question in among a myriad of others: is the player hitting the ball well enough to win the tournament? As far as Jordan Spieth and, to a lesser extent, Jon Rahm are concerned the answer is no, while for Sergio Garcia the answer is a resounding yes if he can string four good rounds together. Since winning The Masters, Garcia has finished T30 and T20 at THE PLAYERS and Byron Nelson respectively but at Sawgrass it was only a final round of 78 that prevented him from finishing inside the top 10, while at Four Seasons his rounds on Friday and Saturday of 65 and 64 were bettered on the day by only one player: Jason Kokrak’s 62 on Friday and Jason Day’s 63 on Saturday. So is Garcia playing well enough to win at Colonial? Yes. Will the fast greens cause a problem? Possibly, but then this is the guy who tamed Augusta a matter of weeks ago. And don’t forget, Garcia is in a very elite band of players to win multiple tournaments in Texas: first here more than a decade ago and the Byron Nelson last year.

Key Stats:

SG: Tee-to-Green – 3rd

Greens in Regulation – 6th

SG: Around-the-Green – 11th

Sleeper Fantasy:

Blayne Barber … Arguably one of the four forgotten also-rans who Mackenzie Hughes outlasted in the playoff at The RSM Classic, it was nonetheless a career-best finish for Barber. Alas, it didn't portend a hot restart after the holiday break, as he missed his first four cuts of 2017. He then went without a top 25 until a T16 in his last start at THE PLAYERS. True to form, he led the field in proximity to the hole, strokes gained: putting and average distance of putts made. For the season, he ranks a respective T12, 12th and first in those categories. Not a stranger to Colonial, either. He placed T34 in his debut here last year. A gamble but underpriced to be sure

Ray Monohan

Brewers / Blue Jays Under 8.5

The Blue Jays and the Brewers face off on Wednesday afternoon in Milwaukee and the under has a ton of value in this one. This game features two pitchers who have had nice starts to their season. On the mound for the Brewers is Matt Garza who has looked really good to start the season. He has a 2-0 record on the season with an ERA of 2.43.

He faces a Toronto team who has had trouble scoring runs this season. On the mound for the Blue Jays is Marcus Stroman who has a 3-2 record and an ERA of 3. In his last three starts he has given up a total of two runs. I expect he will be able to mix his pitches and have a really good start in this one. Some trends to note. Under is 8-2 in Stromans last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Garzas last 5 Wednesday starts. This is going to be a pitchers duel.

Jimmy Boyd

Marlins vs. A's
Play: A's -135

I really like the value here with Oakland at this price with their ace Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray will be making his 5th start of 2017 and has got better with each outing. His last start was a gem against the Red Sox, where he allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits over 6 innings. The biggest key there was the 8 strikeouts he racked up, as he had only had 9 strikeouts in his previous 3 starts combined. He's more than equipped to keep this Miami offense in check.

I can't say the same for Marlins starter Edinson Volquez and him cooling off the hot bats of the A's, who have scored 8 or more runs 4 times in their last 7 games. Volquez has struggled all season, as he is 0-6 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.697 WHIP in 8 starts and 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA in 5 road starts (all 5 losses for Miami).

It's also worth noting that the Marlins are a poor interleague team, going just 9-22 against the AL over the last 2 seasons. That's with yesterday's 11-9 win, which also puts them in a bad spot, as they are a mere 8-26 in their last 34 road games after scoring 8 or more runs.

Larry Ness

Pirates vs. Braves
Play: Braves -119

Atlanta's Matt Adams (acquired from St Louis just this past Saturday) delivered a walk-off single in Tuesday's 6-5 victory, the Braves' 10th win in their last 13 games. Pittsburgh had taken a one-run lead in the top of the ninth but Tony Watson was unable to close it out, allowing at least three hits for the fourth time in seven appearances, as Pittsburgh fell to 8-17 away from home in a crushing defeat that featured a rain delay of more than three hours. While the 20-23 Braves are inching towards the .500 mark, the 20-26 Pirates are heading in the opposite direction with losses in each of the first two of this four-game series at Atlanta's SunTrust Park.

The pitching matchup features Trevor Williams (2-3, 6.04 ERA) and Julio Teheran (3-4, 5.47 ERA). Williams will make his fourth start after making six appearances out of the bullpen. This could be the most important of the season for Williams, who was rocked for eight runs (six earned) over three innings in his first start (May 8 ) but has pitched better in his last two, working five innings of one-run ball at Arizona and 5.2 innings of three-run ball vs Philadelphia. Williams could be in danger of losing his role to Jameson Taillon, who has been out after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Taillon threw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday and moved a step closer to being reactivated.

Atlanta's move to SunTrust Park has not made for an easy tradition for Julio Teheran. He had always pitched well at Turner Field but he's 1-4 with a bloated 10.24 ERA at Atlanta's new stadium, as opposed to a 2-0 mark and minuscule 0.71 ERA in four road starts. He was battered for a season-worst nine runs and served up three HRs in three-plus innings in his last home start this past Thursday against Toronto. That followed a stellar outing at Miami in which he tossed six scoreless innings of three-hit ball. Teheran is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA vs the Pirates in seven career starts (Braves are 5-2).

Teheran pitched even strong innings last month (allowed just two unearned runs on April 9th) but again, that was on the road. That said, Teheran's home woes make little sense. He's been Atlanta's ace recently and I expect hime to come around here at SunTrust. As for Williams, he's pitched 13.2 innings as a starter, allowing 12 runs (10 earned) on 15 hits, four walks and six strikeouts.

Mike Lundin

Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9

The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals for the third game of a four-game series Wednesday night. I think we'll see plenty of runs considering the guys on the mound.

Jason Hammel (1-5, 6.20 ERA) takes the ball for KC. He's been torched for a total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits with four homers in 13 innings through his last two starts. Hammel is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in six games (four starts) here at Yankee Stadium and over is 8-1 in the Yankees' last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.

The Yankees turn to Luis Severino (2-2, 3.64 ERA) who will face Kansas City for the first time in his career. The 23 year old has posted a 5.09 ERA in four starts in the Bronx this season and he's 5-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 19 games (15 starts) here at Yankee Stadium in his career.

The Yankees are the highest scoring team in the American League and over is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings.

Darryl Tucholski

Blue Jays vs. Brewers
Play: Blue Jays -111

Marcus Stroman is 3-0 in his last 6 starts, and has not allowed a homerun in his last 3 games.

Matt Garza, while he's been off to a solid start - keep in mind, his strikeout numbers remain low, along with his pitch counts. His WHIP the last two seasons has been over 1.5. He is just not a good pitcher anymore.

Larry Wallace

San Francisco at Chicago
Play: Chicago -162

I like the Cubs in this match-up against the Giants. Kyle Hendricks in his last 3 starts is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Overall Hendricks is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Matt Moore while on the road is 0-3 with 8.63 ERA. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.

Vic Duke

Twins vs. Orioles
Play: Twins +105

I realize the success Tillman has had at home with Baltimore but he hasn't been that sharp thus far with a higher than normal WHIP and not going beyond 6th inning. He's struggled vs Minnesota at 0-4 with a bloated 4.50 ERA. On the other hand, Jose Berrios has been razor sharp early at 2-0, including on the road at Cleveland. Berrios sports a microscopic ERA with 15 strike outs in 15 1/3 innings. The Orioles are slumping now and should find trouble against the road hot Twins which are 10-2 in its last 12 as a traveler. Twins the call.