Dustin Hawkins
Mariners vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -146
Seattle is 4-15 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Nationals are 17-8 in night games this season where as the Mariners are only 13-18 at night.Washington is also 12-7 at home vs. Seattles record of 7-16 on the road.
Matt Fargo
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Cardinals +146
St. Louis was unable to get to Clayton Kershaw which is the case for almost every team and it eventually lost in 13 innings last night. The Cardinals have now dropped five of their last six games but they are once again catching a big number and this time around, the pitching matchup is in their favor. Despite the recent struggles, the Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 road games. Los Angeles has won two straight and five of its last six games as it continues to keep pace in the American League West with Colorado and Arizona. Mike Leake did not adjust well to his move to St. Louis as he was nothing but average but so far this season, he is living up to his First Round draft pick status. He has a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through eight starts, all of which have been quality outings. People may think this is a fluke but he has always had the potential and the dominance this year can be attributed to his cutter which he is using more and it has been much more effective. He can tame the Dodgers offense and going back, the Cardinals are 6-1 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Rich Hill gets the ball for the Dodgers and he had a successful return to the rotation after once again having blister issues. He still went just five innings and tossed only 82 pitchers so he is still being held back and not coming back too aggressively. He has had more time off here but the Dodgers are 0-4 in his last four starts with seven or more days of rest.
Tony Karpinski
Twins vs. Orioles
Play:Twins +106
Jose Berrios has burst onto the scene with two sterling outings, including 7 2/3 scoreless innings against the Rockies. He set a career high with 11 strikeouts and has allowed only one run on four hits in 15 1/3 innings. I like the HOT TWINS to get the win here this afternoon and sweep this series.
Will Rogers
Cardinals at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
The set-up: Lynn and Kershaw dominated last night with LA finally prevailing 2-1 in 13 innings. The Dodgers have now won five of their last six and Tuesday's win gives them a superb 17-7 home mark. Meanwhile, the struggling Cardinals have dropped five of their last six overall and last night, struck out 14 times and managed just four hits as they stranded only two baserunners.
The pitching matchup: Mike Leake (4-2 & 2.03 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis and Rich Hill (1-1 & 2.77 ERA) for Los Angeles. Leake, nothing more than a journeyman, ranks second in the National League in ERA behind Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (2.01) and also owns a stellar 0.99 WHIP. He has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts during a fine bounce-back season after compiling a career-worst 4.69 ERA last year. Leake is 4-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against the Dodgers. Hill is making his second start since returning from blister issues, something that plagued him last season as well. He struck out six in five innings versus San Francisco on May 16 while allowing one run (on a HR) and just six hits. He is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in five career appearances (four starts / teams are 2-2) against St. Louis.
The pick: I have to believe that Leake has pitched over his head so far in 2017 and winning at Dodger Stadium, where LA is 17-7 and averaging 5.58 RPG, is a stretch.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
I look for both teams to struggle to score in this one, making the UNDER an easy play for me with the number at 8.5. Toronto is sending out their most consistent starter of 2017 in Marcus Stroman, who has a been lights out of late with a 1.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. Stroman has also been at his best on the road, where he's 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA in 4 starts. Milwaukee counters here with Matt Garza, who is quietly sitting there with a 2.43 ERA in 5 starts and like Stroman is on fire of late, posting a 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Steve Janus
Rockies vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +115
Play Against - Road teams (COLORADO) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games.
Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 7½
The Dodgers defeated St. Louis by a score of 2-1 in 13 innings last night, and I expect another pitcher's duel at Dodgers Stadium tonight.
Mike Leake will toe the slab for St. Louis, and the right-hander has been dealing so far this season. Leake (4-2, 2.03 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits, striking out five in seven innings in a home loss to Boston his last time out. He's been great in recent starts at LA, allowing three runs on 10 hits over 13 innings in two starts over the last three seasons. The Dodgers lineup is batting a combined .246 over 138 at bats versus Leake.
The Dodgers hand the ball to Rich Hill, who has made just three starts so far this season. Hill (1-1, 2.77 ERA) allowed one run on six hits, striking out six in five innings in a win at San Francisco his last time out. He's given up just three runs on seven hits over eight innings in two home starts. The Cardinals really struggle versus left-handed pitching, and only Atlanta has scored fewer runs versus southpaws this season.
These teams have failed to reach the total in 12 of the last 17 meetings, and the under is 9-1-2 in Hill's last 12 starts. LA has gone under in six straight when Hill starts at home.
Carmine Bianco
Detroit at Houston
Play: Over 9
Wednesday's free play is a total and the Over as the Tigers and Astro's hit the field for the 3rd of a 4 game series. Daniel Norris starts for the Tigers and it's Charlie Morton for the Astro's and both have struggled this past month including their last starts where Norris gave up a couple homers while failing to get past the 6th and Morton served up 3 to the Indians in 5 innings of work.
Oskeim Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -121
Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Williams was drafted by the Marlins in 2013 and was subsequently traded to the Pirates for Richard Mitchell. In his major league debut in 2016, Williams gave up five home runs in 12.2 innings of work (2.84 HR/9) and finished with a 7.82 ERA and 6.70 FIP.
The 25-year-old doesn't miss many bats as evidenced by his career 6.39 K/9 rate, and he owns a pedestrian 5.68 K/9 rate through 25.1 innings this season.
Williams has posted a 6.04 ERA, 5.64 FIP and 5.12 SIERA across nine appearances this season (3 starts), and a lack of command continues to haunt the young hurler (3.91 BB/9; 3.55 BB/9 in 2016). Williams now faces a surging Atlanta lineup that is averaging 5.1 runs over its last seven games (.347 OBP; .829 OPS).
Technically speaking, the Pirates are a money-burning 8-20 in their last 28 road games and 4-10 in their last fourteen games versus teams with a losing record, including 1-6 in their last seven road affairs.
Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has enjoyed success against the Pirates, going 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven career starts. The Braves are 5-2 in Teheran's last seven starts against Pittsburgh, while home teams are 8-2 in umpire Victor Carapazza's last ten games behind home plate.
Let's also note that the Braves are 7-2 in Carapazza's last nine games calling balls and strikes. Teheran should continue his success against a Pittsburgh team that is averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road and 3.4 runs per game at night (.282 OBP; .609 OPS).
The Prez
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 8.5
The Los Angeles Angels have won five straight and have returned to respectability in the American League West with a 25-23 overall record and tied for second place with Texas seven games behind first place Houston. The Angels and the Rays (-110, 8.5) take the field under the Tropicana roof for a 7:10 p.m. ET contest in St. Petersburg, Florida.
The Angels send right-hander Ricky Nolasco to the hill. The veteran has recorded three straight quality starts without a victory during that stretch but has the luxury of facing a Tampa lineup that is scuffling at the plate. Nolasco contained the New York Mets power bats in his last turn and looks to repeat that performance for the second straight outing. Nolasco's Achilles has always been the long ball. Before his last trip to the mound to oppose the Mets he had surrendered two home runs in each in his previous three outings and has for the season allowed 13 HR's in 51 2/3 frames on the season.
Nolasco is a strike thrower and his K:BB remains excellent at 45:14 and while he has allowed as many hits as innings pitched the veteran knows how to work around base runners and today's event is against a lineup, Tampa Bay, that strikes out more than any order in the bigs.
Tampa Bay starter Erasmo Ramirez (2-0, 3.00) was moved back into the rotation after Blake Snell was optioned to Triple-A Durham this past weekend.
Ramirez is coming off a solid start against division foe New York. He held the Yankees to two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings of work. Ramirez won his only other start this season on April 20 working through a good Detroit offense that saw him allowed one run on just two hits over five frames.
Ramirez will need only be careful with the top of the L.A. lineup as Cameron Maybin and Mike Trout both have a positive history against Ramirez, who is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA, in five starts and a total of nine appearances versus the Angels.
Wunderdog
Miami @ Oakland
Pick: Miami +132
Oakland lost its second straight on Tuesday night as Justin Bour had four hits, including a home run. The Marlins banged out 19 hits en route to their 11-9 win over the Athletics. Oakland has now lost eight interleague home games in a row and nine of their last 11 interleague contests overall, dating to last season. Sonny Gray will make his fifth start of the season and he has a 3.97 ERA and 1-1 record as he recovers from a lat injury. Gray comes off his worst season of his career in 2016 when he was 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA and Oakland has lost 16 of his last 22 starts. Also, the Athletics have lost 13 of Gray's last 16 starts against teams with losing records. Edinson Volquez has not enjoyed much run support, but he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Scott Rickenbach
Detroit vs. Houston
Play: Detroit +163
The Tigers Daniel Norris doesn't have impressive numbers on the season but he is a very capable hurler and just has made a few "mistake pitches" in recent starts. He has struck out 16 in his last 16 innings and averages about 1 strikeout per inning on the season. Norris has an added edge here in that the Astros have never faced him and, also, Houston hasn't faced a left-handed starter in nearly 2 full weeks! Don't be surprised if the Astros struggle at the plate in this one. Speaking of struggling at the plate, Detroit has certainly had issues so far in this series but Charlie Morton should bring out the best in them. The veteran right-hander gets the call for Houston today and he gave up 3 homers in just 5 and a third innings versus the Indians in his most recent start. Overall, Morton has had some issues with too many walks in recent outings as well. Before losing 3 straight games and struggling at the plate, the Tigers had averaged 6.8 runs per game in their 5 prior games. After facing some tough hurlers and struggling, the Tigers will break out the big lumber today against Morton. He's just not of the same caliber of whom they had been facing. The result here is tremendous underdog line value. The Astros are 10-13 (down $7,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the Tigers are 26-22 (+$7,000!) the past 3 seasons combined when they are entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Those records may not seem 'that' impressive but, remember, we're getting SIGNIFICANT plus money odds here and I like Norris over Morton in a BIG way in this one.
Jack Brayman
My free pick for today is on the Chicago Cubs over the San Francisco Giants, and I'm playing the defending champs on the Run Line.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Kyle Hendricks and Matt Moore. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
The Cubs took it on the chin in the series opener, so I told you to take them last night with my freebie - and they won. And tonight we should see a decent performance from Hendricks.
Over his last five starts, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA, having allowed just six earned runs over 29.2 innings. And that includes a start IN Colorado - arguably the most difficult place to keep the ball in the park - plus his most recent outing, when he faced the Reds with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field at 24 miles per hour. Needless to say, Hendricks is on a roll.
For Moore, it's his 10th start of the season, including his sixth on the road. And to my surprise, this will be his first career appearance against the Cubs. The southpaw has struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA.
I'll look for the Cubs to have a big game.
5* CUBS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Think the last of 3 between the Royals and the Yankees is going to feature some fireworks.
Jason Hammel was on the mound last week against New York, and the Yankees were able to rap out 9 hits - 2 of them homers - and score 5 runs in his 6 innings of work against them, as the Yanks scored 7 that night versus Kansas City.
Luis Severino did not work last week's series against KC, but Sevy has seen each of his last 3 starting assignments land Over the total, and 5 of his 8 overall this season end up in the Over column.
Last night's game held under by a half-run, but the Yankees have still played 9 of their last 13 at Yankee Stadium Over the posted price. Series numbers show 8 of the last 12 in this series have also played Over the total.
Stay with the offensive trends and play the Over at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday.
4* KANSAS CITY-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Brad Wilton
New York took 2 of 3 last week off of Kansas City, including roughing up tonight's starter Jason Hammel - 5 runs and 9 hits allowed in his 6 innings worked - and I like the Yankees to make it 2 of 3 tonight as they look to stay atop the standings in the A.L. East.
The Yankees have won 14 of 21 at home this season, while the Royals have dropped 12 of their last 17 away from home.
Luis Severino did not factor in the decision his last time out, but did go 5 solid innings while allowing just one run to score. Severino has looked very bit the part of a budding star for the most part this season while on the mound. Look for him to mow down the Kansas City attack tonight, as the Yankees take this one over the Royals.
1* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5