Free Picks for Wednesday, May 31st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DODGERS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: DODGERS +120
There isn’t any question St. Louis has the pitching edge here with Carlos Martinez on the mound against the shopworn Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Dodgers lefty is now a soft tosser and is dependent on location to survive.
But he is a southpaw and that remains a problem for the Redbirds. Martinez is outstanding but he’s facing a very good offense vs. righties and the Dodgers have a major edge with the bats in this game.
Then there’s the enormous run differential, which favors the Dodgers by a wide margin. If this game was in the pick ’em range, I’d leave it be. But I just can’t justify the Cardinals being favored by this much. That means it’s a value dog grab here and I will be on the Dodgers to nail down another win.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Phillies +127
There is only one team in the majors with less than 20 wins and it's the Phillies at 17-33 and a .340 winning percentage. That said, I am well aware of the fact that this is a contrarian play but this line looks "funny" to me and I like going against the world when everybody is lining up on one side of a play. Most everyone is flocking to Miami here and yet we've seen the money line actually move toward Philly in this one. What that tells you is that the bigger dollars are coming in on the underdog Phils here and it is those larger-sized wagers that tell you where the sharp money is on this one. Philadelphia's Aaron Nola allowed just 1 earned run on only 4 hits in 7 innings in his most recent road start. Also, Nola has a 1.35 ERA and minuscule 0.75 WHIP in his 3 career starts versus Miami. Though the Marlins Daniel Straily did not allow an earned run in his start against the Phillies last season, he did give up 6 hits and 3 walks for an average of nearly 2 baserunners per inning in the 5-inning stint. In other words, Straily had to work his way out of some jams against the Phils and he also comes into this start having allowed 3 earned runs in each of his past two starts. The Marlins, when on a winning streak of 3 games or more, are 0-2 this season and 14-23 in recent seasons and 28-45 long-term. Look for Miami to drop to 1-8 in Wednesday games this season as the Phillies salvage a game out of this series and improve to 8-6 (and +4 net games) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more this season.
Chip Chirimbes
Tigers vs. Royals
Play:Tigers +109
Two AL Central bottom feeders face-off in Kansas City where the Royals are a game over at 13-12 but averaging just 3.40 runs per game. Ian Kennedy (0-4, 4.43 ERA) is still looking for his first win of the season and has has little run support getting just 2.5 runs per start. Detroit will start Matt Boyd (2-5, 5.40) who is winless in his last seven starts and is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in six career starts against the Royals. The Tigers were shutout 1-0 Tuesday and look to bounce-back here with a series closing win.
Red Dog Sports
Nationals vs. Giants
Play: Giants +161
The Giants are 7-1 in Cain's last 8 starts against Washington. San Francisco is 7-4 in their last 11 home games. Washington is 4-7 in their last 11 on the road. Cain beat the Nationals 3-1 last July at home. Nice value at +161 even with Max Scherzer scheduled to pitch for the visitors. Hopefully Buster Posey and the Giants can get some key hits.
Cappers Club
Predators vs. Penguins
Play: Predators +133
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Nashville Predators look to even up the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday night and at a plus number they offer a lot of value.
They completely outplayed the Penguins in game two and if it wouldn't have been for an overturned goal call, and a couple lucky goals for the Pens they would have came out of game one ahead.
I think the Predators will use the momentum they gained in game one and use it to their advantage in game two. They had a few mental lapses in game one that really did them in but for the most part they played really well in the defensive zone.
Some trends to note. Penguins are 1-9 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Predators are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
The Predators will get an early goal in this one (and it will count this time) and they won't look back.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Play:Kansas City -123
Edges - Royals: Kennedy 3.04 ERA and 0.97 WHIP home as opposed to 6.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away this season… Tigers: Boyd 0-6 with 6.03 ERA last six overall team starts, and 0-6 career team starts during May. With the Royals 3-0 at home in Boyd’s career team starts, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Dustin Hawkins
Rockies vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -175
Rockies manager Bud Black is only 19-42 in his first season against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better in all games he has managed his career .Colorado is 15-27 against the money line vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
Tony Karpinski
Oakland at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -136
The mediocre hitting offense of Cleveland is still getting better and better. They don't get stale on any side of their game. With 3 guys hitting 7+ dingers - they have enough damage to deal to Oakland. Oakland is batting so poorly is just cannot be all the hitting coach's fault. Oakland seems to have forgotten how to hit on the whole. A miserable .238 over the month of May. The Indians have won 3 in a row and I'll back them here on Wednesday evening.
Mike Anthony
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -130
Kansas City will need to make sure they hit the ball again in this game so they can start tacking on runs. As long as Kansas City can get 4 runs in, it will be more than enough to beat the Tigers. Not many players on the current Detroit roster have much demand from other teams' fear. Detroit cannot hit the ball very well - as they strikeout an awful lot and Detroit has also struggled with grounding out into double plays vs teams.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -½ +121 over Nashville
The general consensus is that Game 1 of the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals may have been one of the worst games ever played. That's saying a lot considering there were eight goals and one team came back from three down to tie it up late before Pittsburgh would go on to luckily win it. Much has been made about the Predators having an early goal reversed on an offsides call. If you thought instant replay was going to make sure “they get it right” you haven't seen this system instituted in other sports where the calls on the field are also subject to human error. How many times have you heard the network's officiating “expert” get the call wrong? There is no league-wide conspiracy to ensure the Penguins win but a perceived bad call can bring the worst out in gamblers. It's important not to react with emotion and understand that over time the calls will even out.
To the naked eye, there is no question who the better team was in Game 1. The Preds dominated puck possession and shots on goal but Jim Rome said it best, “Scoreboard”. That's a fact Preds coach Pierre Laviolette knows all too well, “We hate the result. Right now we are 100 percent in a results-oriented business.” He's right and while he added his team played “great”, there are some big red flags in the Nashville camp. First, despite totally dominating the play for nearly 60-minutes, the Preds could only manage 26 shots on net. That’s a problem. Second, Pekka Rinne has taken his lumps in this space over the years and it was only a matter of time before the clock struck midnight on this rat disguised as a prized pony. Rinne let in four goals on 12 shots. While the game winner came after 37-minutes of inactivity, it was a routine glove save that Rinne had to make. What happened in Game 1 to Rinne and the Preds has been happening for two years now. Dude is prone to allowing soft goals, which makes him weak. Great goaltenders only allow a handful of softies all year and that is what separates the great from the weak. Rinne is the latter because he gives up far too many soft goals.
Did ya hear? The Penguins went 37-minutes Monday night without a shot. This news was obviously not lost on anyone who watched Game 1 or any of its fallout. We are not going to reflect too much on the Pens performance in Game 1 because it's not likely to be seen again. The fact the Penguins were able to play arguably their worst game of the season and still walk away with the win has to be a huge boost. Sidney Crosby and company are not used to taking much heat from the local media and national hockey press but they’ve been criticized harshly for their pathetic performance on the league's biggest stage. This team already knows what it takes to reach the mountain top but this extra fuel may be all they need to finish the climb. It was almost like the Pens were embarrassed that they won Game 1. You could hear it in their tone during post-game interviews.
The Penguins were a -165 favorite in Game 1 and were totally dominated for the world to see but they got the victory. There is an obvious overreaction to Pittsburgh’s pitiful performance in Game,1 butt we’re are going to completely ignore that effort here. The Penguins are a proud and determined bunch that have never been so embarrassed by a win or a performance like that before and we can almost guarantee a massive response to the good. Nashville got their free shot at the champs and they not only swung and missed but the Preds hit the mat with the force of their failure. Don't be surprised if the Penguins don't let them off the canvas.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -107 over Arizona
Pittsburgh is 24-29 and in dead last in the NL East. Arizona is 32-22 and own one of the best records in baseball. In five starts, Zach Godley is 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA and over his last three starts covering 19.2 innings, he has posted an ERA of 1.83. Meanwhile, Chad Kuhl has one win in 10 starts to go along with an ERA of 6.29. At home, Kuhl is 1-3 with an ERA of 8.61. Over his last three starts, Kuhl is 0-2 in 13 innings with an ERA of 7.43. You see where we are going here? Arizona looks like the play of the day. They are a dog when in fact, everything points to them rolling over the Pirates. If the D-Backs don’t set up to be the sucker play of the day, then we have no idea what would. Buyer beware is how this one must be labeled. What we know for sure is that the oddsmakers are gambling that the Pirates are going to win here and when we can get on their side, you can usually pencil us in.
We’ll spare you the details on Godley because it’s not relevant here. What’s relevant is that Chad Kuhl is so much better than his surface stats suggest but most of the market has no idea just how good he is. Chad Kuhl has torpedoed some bankrolls already (6.29 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) so we’re pretty sure not many are anxious to get behind him again and potentially rip up their ticket again. However, those results have been inflated by a 38% hit rate and 60% strand rate. He is throwing in the mid-90s and owns a very attractive 13% swing and miss rate, which confirms that he has the stuff to turn things around. With great control and an overall solid skills foundation, Kuhl is in line for a great game here. The line says so.
Tampa Bay -1½ +126 over TEXAS
Chris Archer has fanned 23 batters over his last 14 frames and 51 batters over his last 33. Archer owns a 2.69 xERA over his last 6 starts, which is tops in all of baseball. Incidentally, current Rangers are hitting .181 against Archer with just one jack in 83 AB’s. Chris Archer is the straight goods but this is more a fade against the Rangers’ first time starter.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx was been rewarded with his first ever promotion to the big leagues back on May 17 and has appeared in four games, mostly as a long reliever. Bibens-Dirkx has been a weary traveler since signing as a 16th-round pick of the Mariners in 2006. He was released in early 2009 and latched on with an independent league team before the Cubs signed him later in the year. He has also pitched in the Nationals, Rockies and Blue Jays organizations, as well as other independent leagues, most recently in 2016. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is 32-years old. He has a versatile, durable arm that allows him to contribute in a number of roles. He has been both a starter and reliever throughout his career and has been remarkably healthy. None of his pitches grade out as above average. His fastball sits between 87-92 mph and he complements it with a cutter, slider, curveball and change-up but so what. A wide repertoire is great when one of your pitches is filthy but this career minor leaguer does not have any plus pitches. They are all average, which is why he’s been in the minors for over a decade. This is a pitcher with over 1000 innings pitched at lower levels. He’s being thrown into the fire here because the Rangers have few other options. With quality pitching being so scarce and watered down, the fact that Bibens-Dirkx has been toiling in lower levels for over a decade without getting a shot, tells us everything we need to know about him. 25 teams later (or thereabouts) and it’s not likely going to work out well.
SPORTS WAGERS
The Memorial
This week the Tour heads to Dublin, Ohio, which is the birthplace of Jack Nicklaus. He designed this week’s host course, Muirfield Village, the ongoing venue for the Memorial Tournament. For the third week running, the emphasis will be on accuracy over power as the players take on Jack Nicklaus’ pride and joy, the Muirfield Village Golf Club. Water is in play on 11 holes, and penal rough and deep bunkers add to the challenge. It is a tameable test, as McGirt’s winning mark of -15 testifies, but it is a test nonetheless.
At 7,392 yards for its Par 72 we might call Muirfield an inclusive track, in that anybody can win here. The roll call of former winners includes Matt Kuchar, David Lingmerth, and Steve Stricker; none of whom is the longest off the tee. The greens are smaller than average and feature Bentgrass greens. Nicklaus is forever tweaking the course, and his latest renovations for 2017 include a new tee box on the 18th – extending the Par 4 to 484 yards. The 16th and 17th will now be guarded by a pond located front and left of the green and a new set of fairway bunkers respectively.
It’s not the most exciting of statements, but William McGirt’s title winning run last year was based on doing everything quite well and minimizing his mistakes. The stroke gained stats confirm that. He earned +1.812 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – a relatively low figure – and +1.163 on approach. The rest were all under 1.00! McGirt ranked just 50th for Driving Distance and T39 for Driving Accuracy, which tells its own tale, and so we’re looking at players who can convert in the second half of holes. That means Greens in Regulation and Scrambling, and so this has to be the focus with these smaller-than-average greens.
Thus, once again, we’re not interested in any golfers under 30-1. There are too many live bombs to be focusing in on the chalk so hopefully, one or more of our choices will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Brendan Steele 70-1
The Safeway Open winner ticks many boxes this week, not least his outstanding scrambling game. That enables him to recover from tricky situations. Steele ranks second on tour for Bogey Avoidance, which enables him to play well at tougher tracks: a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship last time out is a testament to that. Steele should go under the radar this week given his indifferent record at Muirfield Village – 20-63-MC-MC-62-51 – but lest we forget he is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Some other key stats include his 13th ranking ON TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Tee-to-Green and his 18th ranking ON TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green. Steele is underpriced and could certainly make his presence felt here (Risking 0.2 units to win 14)
Head-to-head Matchup
B. Steele +107 over B. Haas (Risking 1 units to win 1.07 units).
Emiliano Grillo 66-1
The Argentine is putting really nicely at the moment and that is usually the Achilles Heel of a player who really excels from tee-to-green. That’s usually the sign that a strong performance is just around the corner and that is backed by the knowledge that Grillo finished T11 here on debut 12 months ago. The 2017 campaign has been one where a number of newcomers have shown their teeth, and while Grillo has been around for a bit longer than those guys, now is the time for him to turn potential into silverware. He looked very comfortable here last year and has one missed cut across 10 starts this year. He’s also in the top 50 ON TOUR in stokes gained: Off the Tee (41st), Approaching the Green (30th) and Tee to Green (24th) (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units)
Head-to-head Matchup
E. Grillo -131 over C. Schwartzel (Risking 1.31 units to win 1 unit).
Brian Harman 75-1
After taking down the Wells Fargo Championship for his maiden tour win, Harman suffered the traditional regression of first-time winners in his next start with a T53 at THE PLAYERS Championship. However, the 30-year-old returned pretty quickly to form with a T7 at Colonial, a showing which featured three rounds in the 60s and a Sunday best of 65. After three missed cuts at Muirfield Village, Harman finally cracked the code here 12 months ago with a T33, and it may be worth mentioning that McGirt’s best prior to his win at the course was T37. Harman has plenty of motivation here too. His T-7 finish at Colonial last week after a final-round of 65 left Harman achingly short of an exemption into The BritishOpen. Harman moved from No. 54 to No. 51 but needed to crack the top 50 in order to earn a spot at Royal Birkdale. Instead, he ended up 0.0095 points behind William McGirt, who held onto the 50th spot and was already otherwise exempt for The Open. A strong outing here punches his ticket and he’s too determined and focused not to give it his best shot. (Risking 0.2 units to win 15 units)
Head-to-head Matchup
B. Harman +101 over P. Perez (Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units)
Patrick Cantlay 50-1
Pinnacle Sports has Webb Simpson at -138 over Patrick Cantlay in head to head match-ups. That’s not so interesting but what is interesting is that every book, including Pinnacle has Cantlay a smaller price than Simpson to win this event outright. Webb Simpson just might be fool’s gold this week because he’s been seen at or near the top of the leaderboard quite frequently as of late. He’s very likely going to be a popular DFS choice and it’s hard to argue going against him but a frustrated pro that managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory not once but twice recently may very well crash here just before the U.S. Open. That prompts us to play Cantlay. This is kind of cheating considering Cantlay’s recent run, but he’s still only No. 126 in the OWGR. Since easing his way back into competition in February, he's picked his spots and he's picked them well. This is why he demands attention everywhere, including his first visit to Muirfield Village. The 25-year-old holdover rookie hasn't missed a cut in his six starts and sits comfortably at 50th in the FedExCup standings with a runner-up finish at Copperhead and a T3 at Harbour Town. He last competed at TPC Sawgrass where he placed T22 despite a 77 in the finale. If he had enough rounds to officially qualify, he'd rank 37th in greens hit, seventh in strokes gained: putting, 23rd in birdie-or-better percentage and 11th in adjusted scoring. Muirfield Village should fit his precision game perfectly. (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).
Head-to-head Matchup
P. Cantlay +123 over W. Simpson (Risking 1 unit to win 1.23 units)
Ollie Schniederjans 90-1
It’s actually pretty remarkable that Schniederjans is a PGA TOUR rookie. He's 13-for-18 with four top 10s and ranks 44th in the FedExCup standings. Just 23 years of age, well, at least for another two weeks – his birthday is June 15 – the Georgia Tech product has feasted in the analytics that portend success at Muirfield Village where he's making his debut. He's currently T20 in proximity to the hole, 25th in strokes gained: approach-the-green, 31st in strokes gained: tee-to-green and T14 in par-5 scoring. Put everything together and he's 32nd in adjusted scoring. That he’s 90-1 makes him an instant play because he’s almost always right in the mix. (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).
Head-to-head Matchup
O. Schniederjans +116 over C. Hoffman (Risking 1 unit to win 1.16 units)
For Fantasy Players
We don’t bet on favorites to win any event because there is no value but DFS is different. We like to pick one “horse”, which is a top tier golfer and this week’s horse is Jordan Spieth. There was a sense at Colonial that Spieth was nearing his best form. He ranked first for Putting Average – always a decent indicator of how well he is playing, and his four rounds 70-68-68-65 show a genuine upturn in progress. Spieth finished T57 here 12 months ago but that came in the wake of his Masters meltdown and subsequent triumph at Byron Nelson. In 2014 he was T3 here and that’s presumably a more accurate indication of his liking for this track. Spieth’s tee-to-green game has been excellent this season, and with his putting coming back to the boil, it’s a heady recipe for success. Some Key stats are SG: Approach-the-Green – 2nd, SG: Total – 6th, SG: Tee-to-Green -12th. If he hits the fairways with regularity this week, he may run away.
Other DFS worth considering:
Keegan Bradley. Has slid to 109th in the World Ranking and hasn’t had a top 10 since Torrey Pines (Farmers, T-4), but seems to find something in Columbus. Was T-8 in each of the last two years here.
Peter Uihlein. He’s healthy this year and his results have been promising. This former U.S. Amateur champion has a ton of talent and it can show up at any time in the U.S.
Will Rogers
Cubs vs. Padres
Pick: Cubs
The set-up: Surely the Cubs knew repeating would not be a piece of cake but no one expected these kind of troubles. What a difference a year makes! The Cubs are currently 25-26 with a run differential of plus-1. compared to 36-15 with a differential of plus-129 through 51 games last year. The Padres beat the Cubs 6-2 last night and Chicago is now 0-5 on its five-game West Coast swing, scoring only runs while going 2 for 31 with runners in scoring position. San Diego has won three straight for the third time this year and will attempt to extend their winning streak to a season-high four games when they host the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon in the finale of this three-game series.
The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (5-4 & 4.92 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Luis Perdomo (0-2 & 5.61 ERA) for San Diego. Arrieta has lost three of his last four decisions, including a setback against the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Friday in which he yielded four runs over six innings. Arrieta just isn't the same pitcher we saw last year and in particular, the one who won the Cy Young award in 2015. His outing vs. LA marked the fifth time in his last seven outings that he has surrendered at least four runs and fourth time this year he has served up two HRs. He's made three career starts against the Padres, going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Perdomo has lost each of his last two starts after beginning the season with six no-decisions (San Diego was 2-4). He has worked six innings in five of his last six outings, including a setback at Washington on Friday in which he gave up three runs and six hits. Perdomo has not made a start against the Cubs but made a relief appearance at Chicago last year, allowing two runs on two hits and a pair of walks in three innings.
The pick: The Cubs will come out of their funk as San Diego manager Andy Green noted to those concerned about the Cubs. "Do I respect them? Yes," Green said. "Are they one of the best teams in baseball? Without question. Can any team go through a 50-game stretch and play .500 and still be a really competitive team at the end of the season? Absolutely. I don't look at a 50-game stretch and write them off, as good a team as they are." Arras not has had his "A-game" so far but but Arrieta over Perdomo seems like a no-brainer.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Royals and Tigers meet tonight in KC for the rubber match of this three-game series. The Royals blanked the Tigers 1-0 on Tuesday after losing 10-7 on Monday to Detroit. The Tigers have lost eight of 11 games to fall to 24-28, just 1 1/2 games in front of the last-place Royals in the AL Central. However, the good news is that no team is playing all that well in the division, so Detroit is a modest four games out of first place, while KC is just 5 1/2 games back.
The pitching matchup features Detroit's Matt Boyd (2-5, 5.40 ERA) up against KC's Ian Kennedy (0-4, 4.43 ERA). Boyd is winless in his last seven starts (Tigers are 1-6) and has not made it through six innings in the past three outings, allowing 14 ERs over 12.1 innings for a 10.22 ERA in that stretch. Boyd is 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA in six career starts vs the Royals (teams are 2-4). To say the least, it's been a highly disappointing year for Kennedy. He has not completed six innings in any of his last four outings after recording three straight quality starts that averaged seven innings. However, the bottom line is that he's yet to earn a win in any of his eight starts in 2017 with KC going 2-6 (minus-$467). Kennedy is 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career starts against Detroit (teams are 1-5).
Boyd's struggles mirror Kennedy's, as the Tigers are 3-7 in his starts, minus-$348 vs the moneyline. What's more, Detroit is 12-18 on the road, allowing 5.20 RPG, which pairs nicely (unfortunately for the Tigers) with Boyd's 5.40 ERA and 2.06 WHIP on the road. Take the home team.