Jim Feist
Rockies at Mariners
Pick: Under
Safeco is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Seattle offense has slipped to #18 in runs scored. Colorado is in town, 17-8 under the total in interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado has 22-year old Antonio Senzatela (7-1, 3.19 ERA) has been great, off a shutout win over St. Louis. Seattle's James Paxton (3-0. 1.43 ERA) goes here and had been electric prior to landing on the disabled list, notching a 1.43 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP alongside 45 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. The Under is 5-2 in Paxton's last 7 home starts. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -104
The Arizona Diamondbacks got another fantastic start out of Robbie Ray last night, as it was his eighth time in 11 starts of limiting the opponent to three or fewer runs. It snapped a three game losing streak by Arizona, as he has become a bonafide stopper. While all that is great, Arizona has not shown a great depth of pitching. Since the start of the 2013 season, they are 12-20 when following a game where they had a shutout, with a negative 23.4% ROI against them. Meanwhile that was the third shutout of the season absorbed by the Pirates and they are 2-0 when following a game where they were shutout, averaging 5.5 runs a game.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -1.5, +120
I'm backing the Mariners to not only win on Wednesday but to do so by at least 2 runs. Seattle will get a boost here with the return of starter James Paxton, who had easily been their best starter before going on the DL. Paxton is 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 6 starts with a 0.44 ERA in 3 home starts. While he doesn't figure to go deep in this one, I look for him to give the Mariners 5-6 strong innings. At the same time, I look for Seattle's offense to stay hot and put up another big number here. The Mariners have scored 21 runs on 45 hits in their last 3 games.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -115
I like the value here with Kansas City as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. The Royals come in off a 1-0 win on Tuesday, where they were able to knock off Detroit's ace Justin Verlander. That's a tough loss for the Tigers to swallow, who have been struggling of late with a 3-8 record over their last 11 games.
KC will send out Ian Kennedy, who is 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA in 8 starts, but he's pitched much better than the numbers suggest. Kennedy has a very strong 1.149 WHIP and owns a 3.04 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in 4 home starts. Kennedy faced the Tigers 3 times last season and allowed just 4 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings. Detroit is countering with Matt Boyd, who is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.057 WHIP in 5 road starts and faced the Royals twice last year, allowing 11 runs in 3 2/3 innings of work.
Carolina Sports
Milwaukee at New York
Play: Milwaukee +168
Brewers are 9-2 in Guerras last 11 road starts. Brewers are 6-1 in Guerras last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Nice live dog to take shot with today.
Larry Wallace
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Play: Dodgers +114
I like the Dodgers in this match-up against the Cardinals. The Dodgers have won 5 straight games. Ryu is 1-1 in his career against the Cardinals with a 1.50 ERA. The Dodgers are 10-1 in their last 11 games against the NL Central. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 games while playing at home.
Brad Wilton
I gave you a free play winner on Miami last night, and I will come right back this Wednesday afternoon and give you another free play winner on the Marlins against the Phillies again today.
The Phillies have lost their last 3, and are now 6-23 overall their last 29 games!
The Marlins have got a run brewing, as Miami has captured the win in each of their last 3 games, and 6 of their last 9 overall.
Aaron Nola had a nice first start back after injury, but followed it up with a clunker against the Reds, as he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits in his 6 innings worked for the loss his last time out.
Dan Straily is 2-0 for his last 4 starts, and he has allowed just 7 runs over his last 23 innings of work.
It's pretty obvious which team and which pitcher is on the roll, so side with the Marlins to hand the Phillies yet another loss.
4* MIAMI
Jack Brayman
Tonight my freebie is on the Tribe against Oakland, as the defending American League champs are heating up at the plate while the Oakland Athletics are mired in a four-game losing streak.
The Indians have stroked 36 hits and smacked six home runs the last three games - a 10-1 win over Kansas City on Sunday, a 5-3 win over Oakland on Monday and a 9-4 win over the A's last night.
I'm thinking tonight in Cleveland, the Tribe will tee off once again.
I don't care about listing pitchers, either, as it won't matter who is going for Cleveland or the Athletics.
Oakland's offense is too inconsistent to depend on. To wit: the A's rank fifth in the league in home runs, yet they also have the fifth-most strikeouts. The way the Athletics struggle to find rhythm, and the way they've been losing, I don't see them doing much tonight.
Oakland is hitting .226 on the road this season - seventh-worst in the bigs. The A's have scored 94 runs on the highway this season - fourth-worst in the league.
You can see why I'm playing the Indians, who are suddenly getting hot at the plate. Lay the price.
2* INDIANS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
Tonight I'm delivering another free total, as I like the Under in the Tampa Bay-Texas game.
Let's start with Tampa Bay's ace, Archer, who is poised to break the club record for strikeouts in a month, in today's start against the Rangers. This has to be his most impressive start to a season, as his 51 Ks in May have him three behind David Price’s mark, set in June 2014. Archer's arsenal has been fantastic, as he's grooved pitches nicely, and is finding corners effectively. He's struck out a minimum of 11 batters in four of his last five starts.
Meanwhile, looking to make a statement, Bibens-Dirkx will make his first Major League start after pitching 11.1 innings in four relief appearances. Opponents are hitting .195 off him, including .172 by right-handed hitters and .250 by left-handed hitters.
I'll look for a pitchers' duel and play this low.
4* Rays/Rangers Under
Scott Spreitzer
Arizona at Pittsburgh
Play: Arizona +104
Arizona was able to beat Ivan Nova on Tuesday night and now the Diamondbacks get Chad Kuhl, who is 1-5 with a 6.29 ERA in 10 starts this season. In his last four starts, Kuhl had one good outing against the hapless Phillies, but allowed 15 runs on 24 hits in 13 1/3 innings in the other three versus the Dodgers, Nationals and Mets. Pittsburgh has lost seven of his last nine starts and Kuhl has an 8.61 ERA at home. Zack Godley has a 1.99 ERA and has four quality starts in a row, including six shutout innings on five hits at Milwaukee on Friday. Arizona has won 11 of its last 15 games and last night's win evened its record to 3-3 on this road trip. The Diamondbacks have won nine of their last 12 versus right-handed starters.
The Prez
Chicago at San Diego
Play: Chicago -170
The San Diego Padres are giving the world champion Chicago Cubs fits and aim to take the finale of the three-game series and win their season high fourth straight contest. First pitch in this National League affair is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park when Jake Arrieta (5-4, 4.92 ERA) opposes Luis Perdomo (0-2, 5.61).
The Cubs have not yet found their offensive mojo this season. The current West Coast trip has seen their offense shut out twice by the Los Angeles Dodgers and score just four total runs in the first two games at Petco in San Diego.
Arrieta has dropped three of his last four starts and is coming off a loss to the Dodgers this past Friday when he allowed four runs over six innings. While Arrieta has not been as effective over the last year he has had his share of success at Petco Park and is 2-1 in his career against the Padres in San Diego sporting a 3.18 ERA in those three outings. Arrieta has had some poor luck in combination with allowing a larger fly ball to ground ball ratio but his SIERA sits at just over 3.00 and he strike out percentage so far in 2017 is at a career high.
Perdomo has been the victim of lack of run support from his San Diego 'mates. He is off a loss to the Washington National on Friday night in a game he allowed three runs and six hits. Perdomo's ERA is higher than his xFIP but this is due to abnormal underlying peripherals. His GB:FB ratio and his BABIP are the best of his young career but his stats on the minors don't support that he continues with his ground ball and K:BB per nine innings 2017 success.
When comparing this afternoon's matchup between the Cubs and Padres power container the Cubs have a large advantage. The same goes for the two on the mound. The ball carries much better at Petco in day games and the Cubs out homer the Pads and earn a series finale win
The world champion and talented Cubs (25-26) has not been below .500 this late in a season since finishing the 2014 campaign at 73-89 and despite their recent struggles, especially on this West Coast road trip, they have a very favorable matchup on the Petco mound this afternoon.
Oskeim Sports
Oakland at Cleveland
Play: Oakland +134
Sean Manaea was traded to Oakland from Kansas City at the MLB trade deadline in 2015 and enjoyed a solid rookie campaign in 2016. The talented southpaw finished with a 3.86 ERA and 3.84 SIERA across 144.2 innings of work.
Manaea posted a 7.71 K/9 rate and improved throughout the second half of the season (increased strikeout to walk ratio from 2.75 to 4.06; reduced home run rate and WHIP). Manaea garnered a 2.67 ERA and a 8.0 K/9 rate in the second half of 2016.
While the 25-year-old toes the rubber with a 4.35 ERA through his first 8 starts this season, Manaea's peripherals are solid: 3.39 FIP, 9.80 K/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 53.8% ground ball rate.
Manaea ranks within the top 10 in MLB in both ground ball rate and swinging strike rate (minimum 20 innings pitched). His slider currently ranks in the 99th percentile in MLB in swinging strikes and in the 93rd percentile in inducing ground balls.
The sophomore hurler should improve upon his solid start against a scuffling Cleveland lineup that is averaging just 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.317 OBP; .688 OPS) and 4.2 runs per game at night (.307 OBP; .696 OPS). Manaea also takes the mound in excellent form with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts.
Meanwhile, Cleveland right-hander Mike Clevinger enters tonight's game with a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP at home. The 26-year-old's 2.86 ERA across four starts is grossly misleading in light of his unsustainable .240 BABIP and 81.9% strand rate. Clevinger's true skill set is evidenced by his 3.56 FIP and 3.78 xFIP, both of which are still very good.
Clevinger posted a .288 BABIP and a 1.36 HR/9 rate in 53 innings last season so regression is likely in the near future. He continues to struggle with his command and control at the MLB level as evidenced by his 4.84 BB/9 rate across 22.1 innings of work. Scouts have indicated that Clevinger's "jerky windup" and follow through "are a mess."
From a technical standpoint, the Indians are 0-4 in Clevinger's last four starts on four days of rest and 2-6 in their last eight games versus left-handed starters.
Tony Finn
Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami -145
Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.
Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.
Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.
Mike Rose
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -130
This is the game the Cardinals must take. No ifs, ands or buts. Martinez possesses the better overall arm in this starting pitching matchup, and he gets the benefit of toeing his own bump. St. Louis saw Ryu in the four innings he threw at them when he came in to relieve Maeda last week. The Cardinals are 5-6 and average just 3.7 runs per game against lefties to date, but Ryu is very hittable evidenced by the 44 hits and 19 ER he’s conceded through his 40 innings of work. C-Mart is 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and .231 BAA in six career starts against the Dodgers, and he’s been at his best at home where he’s only allowed a .185 BAA. He’s faltered in high leverage situations allowing opponents to bat .313 against him, but if he can limit the damage the few times LA threatens, his offense should grant him enough of a cushion on the scoreboard to tally the win.
Alan Harris
Dustin Johnson (-155) over Jordan Spieth
Johnson comes into the tournament as one of the hottest golfers in the world, and it seems as if his mysterious injury that kept him out of the Masters is behind him. He finished 13th at the Byron Nelson and 12th at the Players since the injury and he was second in the Wells Fargo and won the WGC Mexico in his two tournaments before Augusta. Spieth, on the other hand, hasn't really lived up to the hype after his monster year two years ago. He did finish second last week at Colonial but missed the cut in back to back tourneys before that (Byron Nelson and the Players), and his 11th place finish at the Masters wasn't all that impressive as he made a run on the one day where everyone else struggled. We also have course history in our favor here as DJ has three Top 13 finishes going back to 2011 while Jordan has only cracked the Top 13 once in the four times he has played here. He played well in 2015, finishing third (Johnson was 13th) but he's finished 57th (2016), 20th (2014) and 63rd (2013) the three other times at Muirfield. Throw in the fact that we have Johnson as a much better course fit overall compared to Spieth (looking at driving accuracy and driving distance, strokes gained on approach, sand save %, Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards, Par 3 scoring from 175-200 yards and proximity to the hole from 200+ yards) and we'll lay the price with DJ here as we expect him to be hovering around on the leaderboard once Sunday afternoon rolls around.