Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, October 19th, 2016

SPORTS WAGERS

LOS ANGELES -104 over Chicago

It wasn’t really a bad pitch that Jake Arrieta threw to Yasmani Grandal. He’d certainly thrown worse. When Arrieta cut loose a 3-2 sinker at 93 miles per hour in the bottom of the fourth inning on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, the Dodgers already led the Cubs 1-0, thanks to a hanging slider righteously thwacked for an RBI single by Corey Seager the inning before.

Rich Hill, meanwhile, had perfectly good feel for the breaking ball that made him the successor to Arrieta’s quickly fading storyline. He threw 51 curveballs in 93 total pitches, and the Cubs were befuddled. Hill also had great success on a handful of big pitches that saw him drop down and fire a cross-body fastball when he needed a strike to terminate a rally or a long at-bat.

The Cubs fielded more or less their best offensive unit, but Hill, Joe Blanton, Grant, Dayton and Kenley Jansen are great pitchers, and the few mistakes they made, they survived. Most of Chicago’s offense seems to be mired in a funk right now, able to work at-bats to some extent, but not able to put their best swings on the ball, nor create consistent hard contact. Too many good swings led to foul balls, and there were too few good swings. There, too, we should note something: hard contact is not actually a specialty of the Cubs. The Dodgers’ hitters were fourth in MLB in average exit velocity this season. Fellow playoff teams topped the leaderboard: Washington, Baltimore, Toronto. The Red Sox were sixth. The Rangers were 12th. The Indians were 15th. The Cubs were 24th. Maybe the Cubs don’t have the offensive firepower to hit their way to the World Series, even though they had everything they needed to post some of the best numbers in MLB this season. Then again, maybe they’re just slumping at the wrong time, and running smack into arguably, the best pitching staff in baseball while doing so. Things do not figure to get easier here either.

Julio Urias was one of the top 15 most skilled young starters in 2016 at age 19 with 10.1 K’s/9, 3.2 BB’s/9 and 44% groundballs. Two of his command sub-indicators support his strong level of command too (11% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike rate). Urias attacks hitters with a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s mph and can reach 97 mph from a lefty. He commands that fastball to both sides of the plate and usually keeps it down. His curveball is also plus, and reaches around 80 mph. His change-up is also plus (getting the picture yet?). He even throws an occasional slider. To top it all off, he knows how to pitch as if he were a veteran. He knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off balance by pitching backwards. He’s about to emerge into elite status and this is the stage to do it on. That this phenom is a dog at home to John Lackey is a reflection of the market’s unfamiliarity with him.

There is no need to go over Lackey’s credentials. Lackey had a great season at age 37 and he’s not going to show anyone what they haven’t seen before. Lackey’s skills are no better or worse than they’ve been for years. His 3.90 xERA says he’s just as likely to give up four runs as he is two runs. We’ll take either and it’s worth noting again that the Dodgers torch right-handed pitchers.

Surely, the Cubs will take at least some solace in having gotten Jansen into the game last night for 21 pitches when the Dodgers didn’t clearly need him. Dave Roberts will have to wear that one if Jansen is needed in each of the next two games, and begins to look ragged. On the other hand, Roberts beat Joe Maddon soundly during a sequence in the seventh inning. He used Joe Blanton for the seventh inning, rather than the eighth, because Baez, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell were due to bat. Maddon responded with some too-cute pinch-hitters, and then had to scramble his defense in the bottom of the seventh. Roberts got all the matchups he wanted Tuesday night, on the mound and at the plate. He’s not yet fully atoned for his earlier managerial sins this month, but he’s getting there. If Dodgers’ pitchers keep executing this well, and if their sluggers keep finding ways to barrel up Cubs pitching, the memory of those ugly intentional walks will eventually drown in champagne. The Cubbies, for the first time all season long, are feeling the heat and up against it and that is not the right time to step in. Wrong side favored.

Cleveland +167 over TORONTO

Needing bullpen depth in mid-August, the Indians called up lefty Ryan Merritt from the miniors. Merritt previously appeared in one game for the Tribe back in May where in relief he faced 13 batters, struck out two of them, walked none, and gave up one hit. The 6'0", 180-pound pitcher was always a starter in the minors. He repeated Triple-A this year where he had more success than his first attempt last season. Never known for being a strikeout artist, Merritt’s K-rate increased from a poor 4.8 K’s/9 last year to a mediocre 5.6 this year. So how does Merritt succeed? With impeccable control. A career 1.4 BB’s/9 shows that Merritt makes the batter beat him. In 11 MLB innings, he walked none and struck out six. Looking at Merritt's career WHIP, it seems the lack of walks helps, but his hit rate is often on the high side. Batters hit .284 against him in Columbus this year, and .267 for his minor league career. When all of the pitches are around the plate, some of them get hit. So while his ceiling isn't high, he does have three good pitches he can throw for strikes. His fastball only reaches the low-90s mph, but it's complemented by a mid-70s curve and a high-70s change-up. He can change speeds, mixes his pitches well, get movement on the ball and he has a clean delivery. By using the same arm speed on all of his pitches, he gets more out of them than the quality of the pitches would indicate. He will always have the occasional big inning when the batters get ahold of his pitches and increase that oppBA.

That’s the skinny on Merritt. Now put him in the fifth game of the ALCS in front of 50,000+ Jays’ fans and it’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll fair. If he gets whacked here, don’t be surprised. If he thrives or is somewhere in between getting whacked and thriving, don’t be surprised about that either.

Marco Estrada won’t be rattled at all in this environment. He’s pitched big games last year and this year and did quite well for himself but our postion on Estrada has not changed and now he’ll face Cleveland for the second time in less than a week. Back in Cleveland, in Game 1, Estrada went eight full innings and allowed just six hits and two earned runs on a Francisco Lindor two-run jack. If you watched that game than you saw what we saw, that being a ton of balls getting scorched but being hit right at people.

Marco Estrada is better than he’s ever been. When he was younger, he threw about a league-average fastball. Now he’s four ticks below the league mark. Marco Estrada is a finesse pitcher, and as a general rule, finesse pitchers are worse than non-finesse pitchers. But the best ones, they succeed in part because of their abilities to locate. Marco Estrada is more often than not behind in the count so one can remove the ability to locate the reason for his success. Finesse pitchers also succeed by turning hitters against their own selves. Power pitchers force a hitter to shorten up. Finesse pitchers tempt a hitter to lengthen. They tempt hitters to come out of their shoes, as if a 500-foot homer means more than its 400-foot equivalent. Facing Marco Estrada is a test in self-discipline because he is simply a below average pitcher that has been riding a wave of extreme fortune for 2 seasons. Marco Estrada gets rave reviews from the media but most of them have no clue what they are talking about. They see results, they hear what everyone else is saying and they follow suit. Terry Francona and the Indians didn’t try to come out of their shoes in Game 1 when facing Estrada. They hit the ball and they hit the ball hard but batted ball variance worked in Estrada’s favor again. Chances are GREAT, that the Indians put the barrel of the bat on the ball again here.

Starting pitchers don’t always decide the outcome of games either. Cleveland has an edge on the base-paths and in managerial decisions. Other than that, these two teams are very evenly matched and it is therefore a prudent decision to take back this outrageous price on the Tribe.

Pass NHL

Ben Burns

Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -177

Some of the pressure is off the Jays, down 0-3, they were already written off in the series. With a win under their belt, they've now got some positive momentum on their side. I expect them to carry it into this afternoon's game. Estrada has a 1.69 ERA and 0.797 WHIP his last three starts. He'll be taking on a rookie with very little big league experience. While the Indians are only 29-29 in day games, the Jays are 39-27. They average 5.0 rpg during the day, compared to Cleveland's 4.4 rpg during day games.

Jimmy Boyd

Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Cubs -104

Chicago is finally facing some adversity and I think they are going to respond in a big way tonight in Game 4. Let's not forget this is a team that scored 5 or more in their previous 4 playoff games before getting shutdown by Kershaw and Hill. Struggling against Kershaw didn't come as a big surprise, but most expected them to get to Hill last night. However, had Hill been healthy all season and pitched in one league instead of both, he would have been in the Cy Young conversation.

I'll take my chances on the Cubs offense snapping out of their slump against rookie 20-year-old starter Julio Urias, who is making his first ever postseason start and first start in almost 3 weeks. The Cubs patient approach hasn't worked in the last 2 games, but it should come into play here. Urias can get a little wild and I believe the pressure will get to him here. Chicago will counter with veteran John Lackey, who isn't going to be the least bit intimidated by the moment. Lackey's also got a 1.73 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Dodgers.

Martin Griffiths

Huddersfield Town vs. Preston North End
Play: Preston North End +165

I like the look of Preston North End in the English Championship today.

Huddersfield may well be far higher in the league than Preston, but they have lost two of their last three away games and are up against a team that has won its last three home games on the bounce.

Preston have lost just once in their last six Championship games and come into this fixture in good form.

Huddersfield got off to a brilliant start to the season and were top at one point, but a couple of losses and a draw recently have undermined that great start, they did win their last game but that was after two consecutive losses.

I see this being a tight game but the home advantage swings it for me, Preston are in good form while Huddersfield are struggling for consistency.

Brandon Lee

Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Indians +171

This is some exceptional value to be getting on a team that is already leading the series 3-1. The big reason we are seeing this huge money line, is the fact that the Indians will be sending unknown starter Ryan Merritt. He made just one start in the regular season and it was a good one. He allowed just 3 hits in 5 innings, retiring 13 straight batters during one stretch. If he can give them a solid 5 innings, they got the relievers to carry them to a win. Toronto will send out Marco Estrada, who was great in Game 1, allowing just 2 runs on 6 hits. The thing with Estrada is he was a different pitcher at home than on the road. He's 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 road starts, compared to 3-7 with a 3.57 ERA in 15 home starts.

Sean Murphy

Maple Leafs vs. Jets
Play: Jets -125

I'll back the Jets in Winnipeg on Wednesday night as the first and second overall picks in last June's draft go head-to-head for the first time in NHL action.

Winnipeg is off to a 1-2 start but it's not all disappointment. Rookies Patrick Laine and Kyle Connor have shown flashes of brilliance while sophomore Nik Ehlers also appears ready to take a big step forward. The Jets have been entertaining to say the least, even if they did take a bit of a step back in Monday's 4-1 loss to the Bruins.

They'll take a step back down in class here, as they welcome the upstart Leafs to MTS Centre.

The Leafs are coming off a big home win over the aforementioned Bruins on Saturday, and have now collected at least a point in each of their first two games. Note that Toronto has yet to click on the power play, going scoreless in eight opportunities so far.

Winnipeg has certainly had Toronto's number in recent years, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. I look for that trend to continue here.

Jim Feist

Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -1½

The Blue Jays survived elimination in the ALCS with a big win in Tuesday's contest, 5-1. There was some controversy as the Indians started their ace Corey Kluber on just three days rest. Kluber, who hadn't allowed a run in the playoffs, gave up two runs and four hits over five innings. The Indians start rookie lefty Ryan Merritt today. Merritt has just 11 innings in the big leagues and starts today because of injuries to Carrasco, Salazar and Bauer. The Blue Jays will start Marco Estrada. Estrada looked very good in game one vs the Indians, allowing just two runs over eight innings. Estrada has now pitched 16.1 innings in his two postseason starts, allowing just three runs and one walk with 12 KO's. Only one other team has come back down 0-3 to win a best of seven ALCS and that was the Red Sox against the Yankees. The Blue Jays will try and repeat history, but they need today's contest. Estrada has been very good and even with the steep price I like the Blue Jays.

Larry Ness

Red Wings vs. Rangers
Pick: Rangers

The Rangers picked up their second win of the season (2-1-0) with a 7-4 victory Monday night at Madison Square Garden over the San Jose Sharks. Seven different players scored in the 7-4 win as LW Chris Kreider, a 20-plus goal scorer the last three seasons, has recorded a goal and an assist in each of the first three games. Kreider is the first Ranger to notch six points in the season's first three games since Brian Leetch in 1992-93 and the first to open with three straight multi-point games since Bernie Nicholls (1990-91).

The Red Wings reached the playoffs for the 25th consecutive time last year, which is the longest active streak in the NHL. However, Detroit was eliminated in the first round of the NHL playoffs by the Tampa Lightning in five games. Detroit suffered a YUGE loss over the summer when center Pavel Datsyuk decided to return home to Russia. The Red Wings opened the new season losing 6-4 at Tampa Bay and then 4-1 at Florida, before winning 5-1 at home against Ottawa. Nine players had points in Monday’s win, led by defenseman Mike Green’s hat trick (the first of his career) and new acquisition LW Thomas Vanek, who contributed three assists.

However, the Red Wings are back on the road tonight (0-2, getting outscored 10-5) to face the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, where New York has won both games played there since the start of the season. The Rangers enter this game with 18 different players having contributed at least one point and here at “The World’s Most Famous Arena,” the Rangers have scored 12 goals in two games. Meanwhile, the Red Wings come in having allowed 10

Dave Essler

Cubs / Dodgers Over 7

I think we have to assume both teams get to three runs here. The Cubs clearly know the importance of not falling behind 3 games to 1 - and the Dodgers clearly know the importance of not letting the Cubs up off the mat. The Cubs had been solid against LHP most of the season, til last night - but this is Urias who has only pitched two innings this season in the playoffs - so there's no experience here. That matters to me, and although Lackey DOES have experience, he's already regressing to the mean. However, he does come up big when he has to, so I DO lean to the Cubs here. That's also in part because LA used their good bullpen arms last night and the Cubs did not, so Chicago may have a back-end advantage. Angel Hernandez has been an "under" umpire LATELY - and that's IMO why this total won't stay at 7.5, but I do think it closes there. If LA shuts out Chicago for a third straight game, more power to them - but that's a bit of a stretch.

Rob Vinciletti

Red Wings vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -149

The Rangers have won both home games this year scoring 12 goals combined. They put up 7 on San Jose on Monday with 7 different goal scorers. They have won the last 6 here at home vs the Redwings and 9 of the last 11 home games in October. Detroit is on a dismal 0-8 run as a road dog dating back to last season. Look for the Rangers to take this one tonight.