Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, October 4th, 2017

Stephen Nover

Calgary vs. Edmonton
Play: Over 5.5

The Oilers enter the season coming off an eight-game exhibition slate in which they averaged more than four goals per game. Connor McDavid and Leon Draiasitl are going to get their points versus any foe. But the Oilers were especially rough on the Flames last season averaging five goals a game in sweeping all four matchups. Calgary ranked 16th in goal scored last season. The Flames have enough offense to take advantage of Edmonton missing key defenseman Andrej Sekera, who is out following knee surgery. Goalie Cam Talbot wasn't that sharp during exhibition season giving up 11 goals on 79 shots.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +150 over ARIZONA

In their brief history, the Rockies and Diamondbacks have squared off once in the playoffs, in the 2007 NLCS. Colorado swept Arizona in four games as part of a 21-1 run that started in mid-September in the regular season. This year, the Diamondbacks won the season series 11-8. Even though Arizona never had a shot at the NL West title, they were on a clear playoff path for most of the year. The Rockies faded somewhat in the second half but held off the Brewers for the second Wild Card and their first playoff berth since 2009.

The overall numbers for the Diamondbacks (eighth in runs scored) aren’t overlay impressive, but this fails to account for the late-season acquisition of J.D. Martinez. His bat added a potent weapon to an already solid middle-of-the-order. David Peralta and Katel Marte are not traditional top-of-the-order base-stealing threats, but the Diamondbacks are one of the smartest baserunning teams in the game. Although Paul Goldschmidt and Martinez get most of the attention, Arizona has a solid lineup from top to bottom. Unlike most pitchers, Greinke isn’t an automatic out.

In a year when the league home run record was shattered, you would expect the Rockies to lead the league in home runs. Instead they finished with a mere 192 home runs, good for 21st overall in the majors. The Rockies do employ some pure sluggers, but in 2017 their offense relied more on wearing opposing pitchers out with a barrage of singles and doubles. Much is made of the Rockies' radical home/road splits and with good reason, as their .862 OPS at Coors obliterated their subpar .703 OPS on the road. Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez both had disappointing seasons, and while anything can happen in a one-game playoff, if seasonal trends hold this could put Colorado at a disadvantage.

Zack Greinke bounced back from a disappointing 2016 campaign with the Snakes and returned to the near-elite level he has shown in the past. Greinke has lost velocity since his heyday with the Royals, but has adjusted by throwing fewer fastballs and mixing in more off-speed pitches. The slider is Greinke’s most frequent non-fastball, but he also throws a mid-70s curve and a changeup as well. The Rockies faced Greinke five times in 2017, twice in Colorado and thrice in Arizona. Greinke went 2-1 with two no-decisions, tossing 34 1/3 innings with a 3.37 ERA, 37 strikeouts, and two walks. Yes indeed this dude can pitch but Colorado has seen him plenty and we’ll take out chances with Jonathan Gray at such a good price.

It was only Gray’s second full season, but don’t be fooled: He is one of better pitchers in the playoffs, and while his opponent is better on paper, this is hardly a one-sided mismatch. Gray throws a fastball in the mid-90s that he can dial up in the high 90s at times, but his bread-and-butter pitch is a slider that almost touches 90 mph and has a tight downward break that gives hitters fits. The self-professed avid ghost hunter has taken enough of a break from paranormal activity to overhaul his repertoire in recent seasons. He’s abandoned his changeup in favor of a mix of hard-biting 90 mph sliders and a rapidly progressing 80 mph curveball over the past two seasons. He’s still rocking the overpowering mid-90’s premium fastball velocity, but the ability to place alongside it with a pair of breaking balls that contain more funk than Bruno Mars has enabled him to blossom into one of the games’ most exciting young strikeout artists.

Over his final 17 starts, Gray posted a 3.58 ERA with 103 strikeouts and just 23 walks over 98 innings of work. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that he was snake bitten by a grossly inflated .344 BABIP during that span. The strikeout totals alone are enough to make us drool over this price but the fact that he’s harnessed his control, slashing his walk rate from 3.2 BB/9 in 2016 to just 2.4 BB/9 this season, is even more reason for optimism. Gray was one of just 13 starters (minimum 100 innings) to strike out over a batter per innings while issuing under two and a half walks per-nine.

In a one-game playoff the default position is to pick the team with the best starting pitcher, so the Diamondbacks get the edge with Greinke on the hill but it is the slightest of edges. Colorado is very capable of coming in here and winning one game in what we see as a 50/50 proposition. The market, however, doesn’t see it that way at all and gives the D-Backs a 65% chance of winning based on the odds. As value players, we have to lean Colorado because Jonathan Gray is too good and the Rocks offense is too dangerous to be spotted a price like this. Overlay.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +170 over PITTSBURGH

OT included. PPG Paints Arena will be loud and appreciative for this opener, as the Champs will raise another banner for their Stanley Cup victory for the second year in a row. The first game of the year is always a motivating one but don’t be surprised if the Penguins aren’t as motivated as the visitors. The Penguins have nothing to prove and they might not kick into gear until January. Aside from that, the Penguins lost a handful of significant pieces from their Stanley Cup roster, including Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Kunitz, Trevor Daley, Ron Hainsey and Matt Cullen but the Nick Bonino departure may have the greatest impact. He was an effective two-way pivot, a gritty clutch scorer in the playoffs and capable of flourishing in a scoring role, too, as he did the season prior with Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin on the ‘HBK’ line. The Penguins, crunched against the cap as always, made no major summer additions, leaving the No. 3 center spot unfilled. While Fleury, Kunitz and Cullen are all at the tail-end end of their careers, that Pens’ dressing room will not be the same with that trio gone.

The Blues are the Blues are the Blues. St. Louis will probably hover around the 40-50 win mark and will, in all likelihood, chisel out a playoff berth in a deep and competitive division like they have been doing for years now. However, a sudden deluge of pre-season injuries to critical players has forced St. Louis to stuff its roster with unproven prospects. Fabbri, Berglund, Bouwmeester, Sanford, and Steen are all going to spend some time in the press box but to that we say, “so what”. The media and market is making too much out of those injuries. To us, Fabbri is the only one that really hurts but this price makes it seems like the Blues are screwed. They’re not. The acquisition of Brayden Schenn was brilliant. Jake Allen caught fire towards the end of the regular season last year and stole a playoff series against the Wild. St. Louis had a terrific penalty kill last season, and the re-addition of Vladimir Sobotka should solidify it even further. Colton Parayko’s (Colt-55) is arguably one of the best, if not the best young, puck-moving defenseman in the NHL. Parayko's got size, speed, and a wicked clapper from the blueline. The Blues have a superstar in Vladimir Tarasenko, a potential breakout talent in Vladimir Sobotka, and a roster full of solid vets that include Paul Stastny and Jaden Schwartz among others. St. Louis rarely sees takebacks like the one we’re being offered here and it’s all becausre the market is putting way too much emphasis on injuries. We’ll look to take advantage of that.

Philadelphia +136 over SAN JOSE

OT included. The Sharks had a quiet off-season, avoiding any major signings and choosing instead to attack a new year with largely the same roster. The aging squad is going to have to fight for every point including any they may get here. The Sharks are hoping for a few things. They’re hoping that a long offseason will do its aging core some good and that other forwards in their mid-20s can improve over last season and that their young players, second or third year professionals, can make a bigger impact. That’s a lot of hope, and not many guarantees. Don’t get us wrong, as San Jose has some great talent but it’s extremely rare an NHL team goes an entire off-season without making a roster addition, either through a trade or signing a UFA.

General Manager Doug Wilson lost players to free agency (Patrick Marleau), expansion (David Schlemko) and trade (Mirco Mueller), with draft picks coming back. But the only fresh faces coming in are prospects, which were already in the system – unless you count UFA signee Brandon Bollig, but he spent all of 2016-17 in the AHL. The window of opportunity is still open for the Sharks, but for how much longer? The roster is due for a major transformation in the next few years. Joe Thornton is 38, Joe Pavelski is 33, and the average age of San Jose’s top four blueliners is north of 32. We have to wonder if all those vets are excited about the season when their GM stood pat. San Jose will win its fair share of games this season but they look like a bubble playoff team to us, which in turn means they are going to lose over 35 games.

The Flyers were the biggest winners in the draft lottery, jumping 11 teams to snag the second overall pick, which they used on center Nolan Patrick. There’s no reason to doubt Patrick can make an impact right away, especially since he can be sheltered by Giroux and Couturier. With that kind of talent down the middle and wingers such as Jakub Voracek and Wayne Simmonds, Philadelphia has the firepower to so some damage. Heck, with Travis Konecny and Oskar Lindblom still on the rise, Philly could have quite the forward group. The defense looks even more promising. Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov have already arrived and there’s plenty more youth. Samuel Morin and Robert Hagg made the team out of training camp but Travis Sanheim, Philippe Myers are waiting in the wings, which means the competition is fantastic. In net, Brian Elliott enters into a perfect situation, as the veteran has always been better when he’s got something to prove. He’ll share the crease with Michal Neuvirth. All told, this is a playoff-caliber team on the rise and we’ll put that to the test in San Jose to start the year.

NHL Future Wager

N.Y. Rangers+250 to miss playoffs

This wager is available at BET365 in the “To Reach Playoffs” section at the bottom of the hockey betting page but if you don’t have an account there, you can also bet the Rangers to go under 95½ points because if they do miss the playoffs, they will likely be way under that number. We could play under 95½ too but that’s an even money wager while missing the playoffs will bring us back a healthy return of +250.

Thus, in order for the Rangers to miss the playoffs, there has to be improvements in the East from two or three teams that missed the playoffs last year and that will take the Rangers place in the postseason this year. Last year’s playoff teams in the East were Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus and New York Rangers. We can almost be certain that Washington, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Montreal will make the playoffs again this year. Columbus has too much talent to take a step backwards so that’s five playoff teams right there. That leaves three up for grabs and it would be absolutely unreasonable to expect the Lightning to miss the playoffs again. Tampa Bay might have the best talent in the East and they are not going to repeat last year.

Assuming Tampa makes it along with our other five almost sure things, that leaves two playoff spots up for grabs between Carolina, Florida, Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia, the Rangers, the Islanders, Buffalo and New Jersey. Carolina is ready to make its move. The addition of goaltender Scott Darling stabilizes the ‘Canes on the backend behind a deep, young and very talented defense core. Carolina figures to make the playoffs too. Carolina might even be a top-3 team in the East and had they not lost more OT games than any NHL team over the past two years, they would’ve made the playoffs both years. Carolina is 100% a playoff calibre team.

To recap, we can reasonably expect Toronto, Montreal, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Tampa Bay and Carolina to make the playoffs. That would leave one open spot for the Rangers and they would have to beat out Boston, Ottawa, Florida, Philadelphia, Buffalo or the Islanders, assuming that Detroit and New Jersey have no shot. Some say Philly is a year away from exploding. Surely, the Flyers could be ahead of schedule this year. Some say Florida has too much talent to miss the playoffs. Some say Ottawa can play as good as they did last year. Some say Buffalo had the best offseason of any team in the East. One cannot count out the Bruins either. The Islanders have been 94 points or better for the last three seasons and the coaching change to Doug Weight last year showed the potential for this group. Anyone of those “bubble” teams can beat out the Rangers and some might beat them out by a wide margin.

The New York Rangers are a capped out team that is in serious need at center. Factor in a suddenly less reliant Henrik Lundqvist (we call him pure garbage) without a suitable backup safety net and we’re putting the Rangers outside the playoff picture. Kevin Shattenkirk helps the power-play but he doesn’t help that wasteland of a defense. We didn’t like the Derek Stepan trade either, at least for the short term. Stepan is an outstanding defensive-minded center who is great on the penalty kill. In 81 games last season he scored 17 goals and added 38 assists for 55 points. The Rangers are on the decline and we’re suggesting it all comes to a head this year by them missing the playoffs and/or finishing below the posted point total of 95½.

SPORTS WAGERS

The Safeway Open

The dust has barely settled on Justin Thomas’ FedExCup win – achieved partly thanks to Xander Schauffele’s outstanding win at the TOUR Championship – and already attention has turned to the wraparound season for 2017-18. Just three of the combatants from the Presidents Cup are in Napa Valley, with Phil Mickelson joined by Adam Hadwin and Emiliano Grillo, while Tony Finau and Webb Simpson join Hadwin in being the only participants in the TOUR Championship to tee it up this week.

We’re heading to the North course at the Silverado resort this week; the now annual host venue since 2014. It’s a 7,200 yard, Par 72 – the first in what seems like an eternity on tour – with four Par 5s to be attacked. The greens are Poa Annua and fairly slow on the stimp, but sloped in nature which acts as their main form of defense. The fairways are tight-ish and there’s plenty of rough around, but with 12 of the 18 holes playing under par according to the scoring average charts in 2016, clearly this is a stretch that can be attacked. Each of the last five holes played under par with Par 5s at 16 and 18 offering plenty of opportunity for late drama. While length off the tee has not been a pre-requisite, these sloped greens are definitely better attacked with short iron or wedge in hand, so perhaps Total Driving is a key stat to follow in this week.

At this time of year, it’s worth looking at the kinds of players who perform well, and perhaps find reasons why. This is a weak field event with many in the field not picking up a club in anger since prior to the FedExCup playoffs, so what kind of talent tends to thrive during the wraparound. Putting on Poa Annua is a skill in itself with most in the field getting little exposure of the surface outside of the California swing, so perhaps takin a look at relevant stats from the Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach, and the Genesis Open, where this grass is used, is wise. Four of the top six finishers here 12 month ago – Kizzire, Piercy, Casey and Johnson Wagner – were all in the top four after round one, and all had morning tee times. A fast start is clearly very important at Silverado. Once again, however, we’re going after some long shots because this is a great time of year to do so with so many of the top money earners taking a break. Hopefully one or more of our choices will be on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event.

Brandon Hagy 100-1

At last year’s Safeway Open, Michael Kim bagged himself a T3 finish without really showing any form before or after the event. It was a real headscratcher, and the only thing we could put it down to was his college education at the University of California-Berkeley, which is roughly an hour from Napa Valley. That meant that Kim could scout the course with ease and had probably played it a bunch of times. Brandon Hagy is also a Berkeley alumnus, and his game looks tailor-made to go well at Silverado. He’s long off the tee, and assuming he can find plenty of fairways that should give him plenty of wedges into these sloping greens – it’s a huge advantage to and soft on what are likely to be scorched surfaces under this hot Californian sun. Hagy ranked 49th for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 7th for Par 5 Birdie or Better last season. Like Kim, there’s a really good chance that he’s played this course many times and like Kim, there’s a really good chance he has a very good event (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units).

Keith Mitchell 110-1

There are a whole bunch of Web.com Tour guys in the field here, and as we saw in 2016 it should be no surprise if some of them come to the party at Silverado. Of those most likely to, Keith Mitchell has to be near the top of the list – and given that he’s not a big name we’d expect his ownership to be low this week for those of you that are playing DFS. He’s been tearing up the Web.com Tour with four top-10 finishes in his last six starts, plus a T11, and let’s not forget that in his sole start to date on the PGA TOUR, Mitchell finished T11 at the Valspar Championship, so he’s not fazed by the step up in class. Mitchell is a true takent who is not going to stay under the radar for long. On the Web.com Tour he ranked 2 nd in Birdie Average, 11th in Total Driving and 24th in Ball Striking and it would surprise us not if he was close on Sunday and in a position to win. This is a long-hitting under the radar, 25 year-old worth investing in. (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).

Harold Varner III 50-1

It was roughly at this time of last season that HVIII claimed the first big title of his career: the Australian PGA Championship, and he’s another player who would have added to that collection if he could just putt a little more consistently. But as we’ve said countless times before, that little hot streak can come at any time, and with exceptional ability to make birdies, HVIII has to come into the reckoning this week. He ranked fifth from tee-to-green here 12 months ago on his way to a T15 finish, so all we’re asking for is a steady week with the short stick and a repeat (or better) of that performance. He actually ended the season in decent enough fashion with T10 at the Wyndham Championship and T20 at the Northern Trust, before bowing out of the FedExCup with T47 at the Dell Technologies where he posted two rounds of 67 (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units)

Rory Sabbatini 125-1

The last three months of the season were outstanding for Rory Sabbatini, who really was approaching his best form by the end of the campaign. Five top-25s in seven starts was a handy way to finish, and he crashed into the top 125 of the FedExCup standings based on that alone. The standout was clearly the T4 at the Wyndham Championship. It’s easy to forget that the South African is a six-time PGA TOUR winner with a whopping 70 top-10s to his name, and make no mistake he will hit plenty of fairways this week and tackle the Par 5s with gusto. He brinks some nice peripherals with him too, as he ranked 1st ON TOUR in Approaches from 125-150 Yards, 12th in Par 5 Scoring Average and 39th in Total Driving. This is a definite overlay (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Chesson Hadley 55-1

Peaking at any time to set up one's year is always valuable, but when it occurs over the summer, it's even better. The former PGA TOUR winner and 2013-14 Rookie of the Year entered June at 57th on the money list. He then lost in a playoff in his next start to lay the foundation for a blitz and a bonanza down the stretch. Two wins, another T2, a solo third and a 10th-place finish evidenced his renewed outlook on his craft. Interestingly, and perhaps not coincidentally, he turned 30 years of age just before lighting fire. As a result, he swept both money lists used to rewards exemptions into the 2018 PLAYERS, so he's also exempt from the reshuffle in 2017-18. Hedley is ranked second in the all-around on the Web.com Tour this year and he has to be coming into this even feeling extremely confident (Risking 0.2 units to win 11 units).

Featured head-to-head matchups of the week.

W. Simpson -108 over P. Mickelson

Mickelson backers should be a tad worried about possible burnout from Liberty National but his prowess around the dance floors along with his pedigree has him overvalued almost every time he tees off. This week is no exception, as Webb Simpson has a great chance to win this event, let alone finishing ahead of Phil. Simpson was in as good as form or better than anyone in the field down the stretch of last season (which was only two weeks ago). His ball striking remains excellent and he has greatly improved his putting since changing his grip last spring. Additionally, his game around the greens remains much underrated. A poor course history has him evenly priced against Phil keep but these two are not even and we’re going to trust Simpson’s form, the superiority over Phil and his improved putting stroke (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Kevin Na +105 over P. Mickelson Bet365

We’re going to continue are attack against Mickelson until the market adjusts to his age and while we seriously respect his game and ability, he’s in danger of a big letdown this week. Even if that does not come to fruition, we’d still be on Kevin Na to beat him here. Na saved some of his best form for last season to the very end, and that momentum is very handy heading into an event he has enjoyed in recent years. Na was T4 at the Wyndham Championship and T6 at the Dell Technologies, and while a flaccid showing at the BMW meant he missed out on the FedExCup curtain call, there are still enough positive signs here to get pumped about a guy who has finished T2 and T7 on his last two trips to Napa. The 34-year-old has ranked 12th and 2nd for SG: Tee to Green at Silverado on his last two visits, and with recent form in hand another strong showing is likely. He also ranked 3 rd ON TOUR in Approaches from 150-175 Yards and 8th ON TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green (Risking 2 units to win 2.1 units).

M.Laird -108 over E. Grillo

Emiliano Grillo has missed the cut in four of his last eight events. While he’s long off the tee, he’s not in the best form and one could even use the word erratic in describing his play this past year. Even when he’s made the cut recently, his finishes left much to be desired, as he’s finished T43, T50, T29, 22 and T58 in his last five cuts made. Grillo’s 22nd place finish at the Dell Technologies Championship looks pretty good but that was all because of one very good round with the other three being as ordinary as he’s been over the past six months. Meanwhile, Laird is excellent off the tee and tends to putt well on Poa Annua. It’s no wonder he’s bagged a pair of top-10 finishes at Silverado in his last trio of visits. Laird ranks seventh on tour for Total Driving in 2017 and has posted top-10s on the Poa Annua here and at Riviera (the Genesis Open), which is a pair of handy angles in. He qualified for the FedExCup and made a decent fist of things – a T20 at the Northern Trust propelling him all the way to the BMW Championship, where he just missed out on a place at the TOUR Championship. We love his chances to put Grillo in the distance (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Larry Ness

Toronto vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Toronto

The Maple Leafs were 40-27-15 and finished 4th in Atlantic Division last season, just barely sneaking into the playoffs. Toronto will open the 2017-18 season tonight at Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg, where the Maple Leafs will face the Jets, who went 40-35-7 (5th in Central Division) and missed the postseason. Theses two teams feature the top-two finishers in last season's Calder Trophy vote, as Toronto's Auston Matthews.(40 goals and 29 assists in 82 games) just edged out Winnipeg's Patrik Laine (36 goals and 28 assists in 73 games) for top rookie honors.

Matthews was 'top dog' among rookies last season but Toronto also had two other first-year players of note. William Nylander (league rookie-high 26 power-play points) and Mitch Marner (NHL rookie-best 42 assists) also enjoyed significant success during their respective first seasons. Fellow forward James van Riemsdyk benefited from linemate Marner's enthusiasm to record a career-high 62 points,while his 29 goals accounted for his second-highest output as a professional. Nazem Kadri also enjoyed a personal-best campaign in goals (32) and points (61) to help Toronto squeak into the playoffs and give Presidents' Trophy-winning Washington a run for its money in a spirited first-round series, before losing in six games.

Laine centered the Jets' No. 1 line and winger Mark Scheifele collected a team-high 82 points and averaged more than one (1.04) per game. Blake Wheeler is coming off his third straight 26-goal season while Nik Ehlers improved on an already strong rookie campaign with 64 points in his breakout sophomore season. Defenseman Dustin Byfuglien packs a punch both offensively and in front of his own net while off-season acquisition Steve Mason comes from Phily in hopes of challenging Connor Hellebuyck for the No. 1 goaltending job.

The Jets have won three of their past four home openers but I don't like the matchups here for Winnipeg. Toronto converted 23.8 percent of its power plays last season (2nd-best in the NHL), while Winnipeg had the league's fifth-worst penalty kill at 77.5 percent. The Jets also allowed 3.1 GPG, which was fourth worst in the NHL. Take the visiting Maple Leafs.

Big Al

Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona -162

The Diamondbacks and Rockies will play one game tonight in the desert with the prize being a series against the runaway winner of their division, the Dodgers. No doubt L.A. would prefer to see Colorado win this game tonight as Arizona spanked them pretty good in the regular season, but they're likely not going to get their wish. Arizona was one of the hottest teams in baseball down the stretch, playing brilliantly on both sides of the field. The D-Backs scored more runs than any other NL team in the final Month of the regular season, while their starting pitching ERA was in the top three with an 11-7 record and 3.80 ERA. Staff ace Zack Greinke gets handed the ball tonight and the veteran RH has the most playoff experience on the current staff, logging a 3.55 ERA in nine post-season starts. Most importantly perhaps for this evening is the fact that Greinke has been unstoppable at home this season, going 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 starts here at Chase Field. The Rox will go with RHP Jon Gray and they are 5-11 in Gray's last 16 road starts vs. teams with a winning record.

Bruce Marshall

Flyers at Sharks
Pick: Under

The Flyers think they've upgraded in goal with ex-Flame and Blue Brian Elliott now between the pipes. Elliott might need to be good as the Flyers look on the verge of rebuild mode. Not sure, however, San Jose is ready for an offensive explosion off the bat as the Sharks proceed without longtime key Patrick Marleau (to Toronto) and an aging core of contributors. Martin Jones remains top-rate in goal for San Jose, however, and this game has a 3-2-look about it.

Jim Feist

Toronto at Winnipeg
Pick: Toronto

While I don't put a lot in preseason hockey, the Leafs did finish as one of the best teams. Toronto was 5-2-1 in preseason action and had the most goals in the Atlantic division with 25. The Jets didn't do quite as well, posting a 2-3-2 record and scoring 17 goals. The home team has dominated this series, going 5-1 in the last six meetings. The Leafs are a good valued dog here on opening night.

Bill Marzano

Rockies at DBacks
Play: Under 8.5

I really like the total in this baseball game and I think it will play Under the posted 8.5 runs...this is a great pitching matchup between these two teams and tonight I expect both pitchers to be dominating and runs to be at a premium...both pitchers are in great form and have pitched a lot vs the other team this year so they are very familiar with the opposing lineups...in every game these two pitched vs the other team, it either produced an Under or a push...

Wunderdog

Toronto @ Winnipeg
Pick: Under 6

Toronto will start Frederik Andersen in goal and he posted a 33-16 record in 2016-17 with a 2.67 goals-against average and .918 save percentage with four shutouts. Andersen got off to a slow start last season after recovering from a concussion but came on strong in the second half of the season and more is expected from him this season. The Maple Leafs signed some free agents, including Ron Hainsey, as they try to beef up the defensive unit to go along with a high-powered offense. Toronto is 15-5-1 UNDER its last 21 games against Western Conference foes. Steve Mason will be in goal for Winnipeg and he finished 26-21 last season with a 2.66 goals-against average and .908 save percentage while playing for Philadelphia. The Jets also added defenseman Dmitry Kulikov from Buffalo. The Jets are trying to improve on a defense that allowed 3.1 goals per game last season and much is expected of Mason in that regard.

Will Rogers

Calgary vs. Edmonton
Pick: Edmonton -155

The set-up: Edmonton's Connor McDavid was touted as a once-in-a generation talent and many feel as if he has already lived up to the hype. He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft and became the highest-paid player in hockey after signing an eight-year, $100 million contract in July, shortly after he earned MVP honors while leading the NHL in scoring last season! McDavid is the major reason why the Edmonton Oilers are a trendy pick to reach the Stanley Cup Finals in teh 2017-18 season. "We expect ourselves to have a good team and do what we did last year," McDavid said of Edmonton, which advanced to the conference semifinals last season. McDavid and the Oilers open the season against another team with lofty ambitions when they host the Calgary Flames on Wednesday night. Both Alberta teams made the playoffs last season and both were eliminated by the Anaheim Ducks, the Flames in a first-round sweep, the Oilers in a second-round, seven-game nail-biter.

Calgary: The Flames dropped all four games of the season series to their rivals from the north, getting outscored 20-11. Calgary was able to claim only one measly point from a shootout loss in the four games and considering the Oilers had 103 points and the Flames 94, the season series had a lot to do with where teams finished in last season's standings. Calgary thought it solved its goaltending woes a year ago with the acquisition of Brian Elliott, but it didn't go as planned, prompted the team to swing a deal with Arizona for veteran netminder Mike Smith. Eddie Lack provides a reliable backup in goal and the defense was bolstered with a trade for former Islanders blue-liner Travis Hamonic and the re-signing of Michael Stone to augment a unit headed by the tandem of captain Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton. A dozen players scored at least 12 goals last season but only Monahan (27) and Mikael Backlund (22) eclipsed 20.Calgary just signed Jaromir Jagr, the NHL's No. 2 career scorer but he;s 45!

Edmonton: McDavid was limited to 45 games due to injury in his rookie season but led the league with 70 assists and 100 points last season. Linemate Leon Draisaitl is coming off a breakout campaign, producing 29 goals and 48 assists before amassing 16 points in his final nine postseason games, while Patrick Maroon (27 goals) and Milan Lucic combined for 50 goals. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson form the top defensive pairing but Edmonton will be without a key cog on the blue line while Andrej Sekera continues to rehab from knee surgery. Goaltender Cam Talbot appeared in an NHL-high 73 games last season and tied for the league lead with 42 victories.

The pick: This series was all Edmonton last year and on Opening Night, why go any other way. Take the Oilers.

Brandon Lee

Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern
Play: Arkansas State -8½

I would lean towards the Red Wolves in this one to win on the road by double-digits, with starting quarterback Justice Hansen expected to play. Hansen had been questionable in the days leading up to this game, but has been upgraded to probable.

Hansen has the Red Wolves offense rolling early in 2017. He torched a Power 5 defense in the season opener, throwing for 415 yards and 3 touchdowns in 36-43 loss at Nebraska. He had 234 and 2 TD passes against SMU before getting hurt.

I know that Georgia Southern comes in with a pass defense that ranks 21st in the country, giving up just 166.0 ypg. The secondary isn’t bad, but it’s not that good. The reason they aren’t giving up more yards is because teams are averaging 5.9 yards/carry and 259 yards/game running the football. The Eagles are allowing teams to run for 1.7 yards more per carry than what they average. They gave up 145 yards and 4.5 yards/carry against FCS foe New Hampshire, who they lost to at home 12-22.

Georgia Southern’s offense ranks 128th in the country, averaging just 259.7 ypg. That’s dreadful. I know they have played Auburn and Indiana, but the 12 points and mere 319 yards they tallied against New Hampshire tells you they aren’t very good on that side of the ball.

Arkansas State’s run defense has struggled, but they have played some pretty explosive rushing attacks with Nebraska and SMU. I know it’s an FCS opponent, but it’s encouraging to see they held Arkansas-Pine Bluff to just 56 yards on 39 attempts (1.4 yards/carry). If they can get some stops early and build a lead here, that’s when it will get ugly, as the Eagles have zero threat of a passing game.

It’s also worth pointing out that this is an Arkansas State team that was picked by most experts at or near the top of the Sun Belt standings, while many had Georgia Southern near the bottom of the league. The Eagles only had 10 starters back and the only team with less experience coming back this year was UAB, who didn’t have a football team a year ago.

Marc Lyle

Blues vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins

Yes its heavy juice and its why I would play this game as -1 to reduce the juice. As always I would rather push with a -1 then lose with a -1.5. Maybe I play a little conservative at times but its why I continue to put up positive numbers. The Pens will be getting their rings tonight for the second year in a row and with the team they have its a great chance they will be doing the same thing next year. You have your core guys here plus young up and coming studs like Guentzel and Sheary. This team is great all around and will be playing a Blues team that has injuries galore. There is not a team in the NHL that had as bad a training camp and preseason as St Louis. I have to take the Stanley Cup Champs on home ice on opening night over a beat up St Louis team.

Scott Rickenbach

Toronto at Winnipeg
Pick: Toronto -105

Either Jets goalie is likely to be a liability here. Connor Hellebuyck took the loss and gave up 5 goals in his lone start versus the Maple Leafs last season. Steve Mason, acquired from Philadelphia, has allowed an average of 4 goals per game in his 4 starts versus the Leafs the past two seasons combined. Toronto is the better team and, even though they split their games with Winnipeg last season, a glance at the game summary from each game shows that the Maple Leafs held a combined edge of 77 to 54 in shots on goal. Good line value offered here since the Leafs are on the road as they would most certainly be a pricey favorite were they hosting the Jets in this one. Take advantage of the value!