Jack Jones
Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern
Play: Arkansas State -8½
Nothing is certain in life except death, taxes and Arkansas State competing for a Sun Belt title. They have won at least a share of the conference title five of the last six seasons, posting a 40-7 record within the Sun Belt during that span.
Arkansas State showed in its season-opening 36-43 loss at Nebraska as 14.5-point dogs what they were capable of this season. They are just 1-2 and undervalued right now as they other loss came on the road against an upstart SMU team that keeps winning and covering.
The Red Wolves have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Justice Hansen, a former Oklahoma transfer who made 10 starts last year and has played well in the early going this year. He is completing 68.8% of his passes for 985 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in three games. Warren Wand led them with 879 rushing yards last year, and he's averaging 6.1 per carry this season.
I'm way down on Georgia Southern this year. Willie Fritz did big things at Southern, but then he left for Tulane two years ago. Tyson Summers could only lead the Eagles to a 5-7 record last year with mostly Fritz's players, and now he'll be hard-pressed to match that win total after an ugly 0-3 start this season.
The Eagles are rebuilding as they returned only 10 starters and 23 lettermen. They lost 7-41 at Auburn and 17-52 at Indiana, while also falling at home to FCS foe New Hampshire 12-22 as 7-point favorites. If they can't handle New Hampshire, they certainly aren't likely to stay within single-digits against an elite Sun Belt program like Arkansas State here.
The Red Wolves are 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a bye week. The Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Tommy Brunson
Wild Card game from Chase Field, and I am going to look for the bats to do just enough damage in this one to squeak the game Over the total.
It will be playoff-newbie Jon Gray and his young Colorado Rockies against veteran Zack Greinke and his untested Arizona Diamondbacks.
I say throw out the 4-1-1 Under mark these teams played to in the last 6 meetings in the month of September, things tend to change come October, and I am not sure I trust young Mr. Gray to match Mr. Greinke in posting goose eggs on the Chase Field scoreboard tonight.
The bats in both lineups have plenty of pop, and let's also remember that the Over is 5-2-1 the last 8 times Greinke has started against the Rockies dating back to the 2014 season.
As for Gray, he faced Arizona twice in September, and both of those starts ended up landing Under the total. BUT, again, this is the postseason, and it will be Gray's first career start at this time of the year. Nerves do tend to play a factor if ya know what I mean!
These teams are quite familiar with one another as they play out of the same division, so let's look for the bats to have enough success to push this game to the Over column.
1* COLORADO-ARIZONA OVER
Joey Juice
Both teams have their best available "ace" in this do-or-die situation, and on paper, it would seem to be a stone cold Under.
However, with their lives on the line, and both these pitchers only around for 6 innings, there is plenty of time for the dangerous bats on both these teams to do tremendous damage.
Do not underestimate the run-scoring ability of the Rockies and the Diamondbacks.
This might look like a first quarter football score.
Be smart - go over the total.
2* COLORADO-ARIZONA OVER
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado vs. Arizona
Pick: Colorado
These two have split the last 10 games here in the series. Arizona has Greinke going and he has lost 5 of his last 6 home starts to Colorado. The Rockies counter with hard throwing J. Gray who has won both starts here in the desert. Neither team has much playoff experience on the roster and Colorado has a road Bullpen Era that is lower then the Arizona home bullpen Era. Gray has allowed 3 or less run in 13 straight starts and is 7-2 vs division teams. Greinke has a 5.52 Era over his last 3 starts. The Rockies offer solid line value here and have more than a punchers chance to advance.
Doug Upstone
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -170
NL Wild Card game looks to have Colorado in a bad situation, as NL road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, with on-base percentage .350 or less, against a team with a good bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or lower, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, are a mere 16-84 since 2013.
ASA
Calgary at Edmonton
Play: Calgary +140
The Flames have a strong defense. No one is questioning that coming into the season. The key in the Battle of Alberta rivalry this season could be Calgary's new addition in goal. Mike Smith, acquired from Arizona, is an incredible 15-2-1 against the Oilers the past 6 seasons! Yes indeed he was won 83% of his starts versus Edmonton so he has got plenty of confidence here and a great defense in front of him. Of course Calgary was dominated by the Oilers last season but the Flames have a chip on their shoulders coming into this season and they're ready to take it to their provincial rivals after being embarrassed by them last season. A lot of line value here with a dangerous underdog that also has an early season edge in that Edmonton will have to adjust to life without one of their top defensemen due to the injury to Andrej Sekera (knee). We look for the upset here and the Flames did win more than half their road games last season so this is a great value spot considering the above factors.
Bob Balfe
Diamondbacks -165
I like to stay away from prices this high as there is not much value in the game, but Greinke is 13-1 at home this year and this Diamondbacks team which is second best in all of baseball to the Dodgers. The statistical odds are in their favor as they face off against a team that was just average on the road. Teams play all season to get this game at home. It’s time for Arizona to take advantage.
Harry Bondi
ARKANSAS STATE -9 over Georgia Southern
When you match a team averaging 472 yards per game against a squad that is allowing 425 yards per game you would expect the game to be a blowout and that is what we are expecting tonight when Arkansas State and their 24th ranked offense meets Georgia Southern and their 124th ranked defense. The Red Wolves have won and covered their 3 prior games with Southern by double digits and make it 4 for 4 tonight. Wolves howl, take Arkansas State.