Free Picks for Wednesday, September 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
San Diego at Minnesota
Play: San Diego +138
Dinelson Lamet has continuously impressed me since getting called up by the Padres in late May. The talented young righty still has plenty of room for improvement. But the potential he’s got has been on display on a regular basis, and there isn’t any question about his ability to miss bats on a regular basis. The walk rate needs to get lower, but when it does, the Padres could have themselves a legit top of the rotation guy. One thing I really like about Lamet is that his mistakes don’t often leave the ballpark. Lamet has surrendered only three homers in last 53 innings of work. That means crooked numbers for the opposition are not easy to come by.
Ervin Santana continues to get the job done for the Twins. Focus all you want on some of the s0-so metrics. The fact is Santana is 15-7, he’s had only a small handful of bad starts all season and he’s a big part of the reason Minnesota is in the playoff chase. In other words, going against Santana is not likely to be a walk in the park.
I’m siding with San Diego on the strength of Lamet and last night’s result. San Diego might not be a playoff contender, but this team has never once shown any quit. I’ve got to think they’ll be arriving at the ballpark on a bit of a mission tonight after getting humiliated by a 16-0 count on Tuesday night. Add in a decent underdog price tag and I see the Friars being worth a play tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -114
Though this is not a true home start for Chris Archer because the game is being played at Citi Field in New York due to Hurricane Irma having impacted Florida, there is no denying that the Rays are still the designated home team. It's always an edge to have the last at-bats in a game and it is also an edge for Archer when he is at home. Tampa Bay has gone 9-5 in his 14 home starts this season. Again, not a true home game here but no denying that the Rays are the designated home team here. Additionally, Jaime Garcia gets the start here for the Yankees but he hasn't pitched in two weeks. He is yet to have a quality start (at least 6 innings pitched while allowing 3 earned runs or less) since coming to the Yankees.
Cappers Club
Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Under 9½
The Cleveland Indians will look for their 21st straight win on Wednesday afternoon, and with a nice high total, the under has the value.
On the mound for the Indians is Mike Clevinger who has been dominant as of late.
He has gone 18 innings over his lat three starts and hasn't given up a run. One of those starts was against this Tigers team and he only gave up three hits.
On the mound for the Tigers is Buck Farmer who is coming into this game off the best start of his season.
Against the Blue Jays he only gave up one run in five innings. I don't think the Tigers will score many runs, so he will have a lot of runs to work with.
Some trends to note. Under is 8-1-1 in Indians last 10 overall.
Tony Karpinski
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Under 8
New York is on a 9-3 UNDER road steak against winning teams, while Tampa Bay has dropped four of five and only scoring 2.5 runs/game in their last 8 games. Archer has the Yankees number as they struggle with him and he is coming off his worst outing of the season.
The 1st two games of this series were UNDER and this one on Wednesday afternoon will also stay UNDER the TOTAL.
Power Sports
San Diego vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -148
It was right here, in this very space, yesterday that I said the DH wasn't hardly enough to save the Padres in this series. Wouldn't you know - They ended up losing 16-0 to the Twins on Tuesday! Maybe it's about time we start taking this Minnesota playoff push seriously as they now have a positive run differential on the season. After the way yday unfolded, I see no reason why we shouldn't expect them to win again tonight, as they have a better starting pitcher going (Ervin Santana). I'll say it again - San Diego is the worst team in baseball (-160 run differential).
The addition of the DH to their lineup is simply not enough for the Padres to compete here. Their offense ranks 30th (dead last) in runs scored, batting average and OBP. That side of the ledger has certainly been the main contributor to the team's overall run differential, also the worst in all of baseball. But after yday, it's pretty clear to me that the pitching could use some work as well! Minnesota became the first team in MLB HISTORY to homer at least once in each of the first seven innings of a game!
Now the Padres will have a better starting pitcher going Wednesday. Dinelson Lamet has made three consecutive quality starts, although the team has still lost all of them. But, the road has been unkind to Lamet as his ERA & WHIP are 5.16 and 1.390 respectively. Did I mention that San Diego is just 26-44 in road games this year, getting outscored by 1.4 rpg? While it's true that Santana has been a bit shaky of late for the Twins, this figures to be among his easiest starts of the year while it should be one of the more challenging ones for Lamet.
Bog Al
Cincinnati vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -158
There have been some hot teams lately, including -- obviously -- the Indians with their record streak, the Nationals (becoming the first team to clinch their Division) and the D-Backs with their recent victories over the Dodgers. But very quietly the Cardinals have also done their share of winning lately. In fact, you may have noticed that the Brewers climbed within just two games of the Cubs when they swept the World Series Champs in Wrigley last weekend. But you may not have noticed that the Cards are right there with them after going 10-2 in their last 12 games, including a blow-out win in game one of this home series against the Reds last night. 21-year-old rookie RH Jack Flaherty will take the mound for the Cards for just his third MLB start in this critical game tonight. The former first round draft pick (2014) got his MLB career career off to a rough start but settled down in his second start, allowing one run on three hits in five innings. The most important stat however is the 2-0 record that the Cards have in Flaherty's two starts. This will be his home debut and the home team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings of these two.
Jim Feist
Oakland at Boston
Pick: Under
Oakland is 3,000 miles from home ranked #19 in runs scored, #24 in batting average. Boston has great defense in the field and strong relief pitching, 8-2 under the total against the AL West. Doug Fister is on a roll, allowing 1, 2, 1 and 1 run his last four starts (30 innings).
Buster Sports
Baltimore at Toronto
Play: Toronto -111
We are going with the Blue Jays here tonight as the Orioles crushing loss last night might have eliminated them not only statistically but also mentally from this year’s playoff race. Automatic closer Zach Britton who has now blown 2 saves in the last couple of weeks, after having a 60 game consecutive save streak, could have all but ended the Orioles chances for the playoffs. We believe it is going to be very tough for the Orioles to come back today from that loss, especially when they are facing arguably Toronto’s ace in RH Marcus Stroman (11-7, 3.18 ERA). Stroman has had a rough month by his standards but he is sporting a solid 2.76 ERA in 15 home starts. We look for Stroman to have a quality start especially at home. The Orioles will send RH Kevin Gausman (10-10, 4.99 ERA) to the hill and he has pitched well of late for the Orioles. This will be the fifth time Gausman has faced the Blue Jays this year and we believe that will give the Jays a slight edge. With the Blue Jays winning four in a row and the Orioles losing six in a row we have two teams here going in opposite directions.
The Prez
Chicago at Kansas City
Play: Chicago +130
The postseason hopeful Kansas City host divisional foe Chicago this afternoon with first pitch scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium.
While the White Sox were sellers at the non-waiver trade deadline in late July the club retained the services of slugger Jose Abreu and slotted their young prospects into the lineup since. Abreu is 10-for-13 and has swatted three home runs, two in the first two of this three game series along with two triples and has eight RBI versus Royals pitching.
The Royals inconsistent offense and suspect starting pitching has resulted in the Royals being a mediocre crew this season, a .500 bunch, that currently sit three games out of the second American League Wild Card spot behind Minnesota, Los Angeles and Texas with 18 games to play in the regular season.
Two of the Royals sluggers in the middle of their lineup are not 100 percent, as well, with outfielder Lorenzo Cain (quads) and third baseman Mike Moustakas (right knee) out of the lineup on Tuesday.
The White Sox send one of their top prospects to the mound at the "K" today in Lucas Giolito (2-2, 2.84 ERA), who will oppose Royals Eric Skoglund (1-2, 10.29).
Giolito allowed five runs (three earned), three hits and four walks while striking out five in 5 1/3 innings in his last turn versus the San Francisco Giants. Despite his suspect surface numbers in his last outing Giolito has pitched well across his last three starts going 2-1 while posting a 2.25 ERA with a solid 8.17 K/9.
The same can't be said for Kansas City lefty Skoglund who was hit hard in his last trip to the hill permitted three runs, three hits and three walks in three innings of relief. The southpaw has struggled since being called up and his inability to miss bats and greatly depend on his command makes his a fade today against the White Sox offense who has registered a near .800 OPS over the last week of play.
It isn't unusual this time of the MLB season, in September, to see the oddsmakers shade the team in playoff contention, and this is the case today with Kansas City's Skoglund who is a buck-fifty favorite in a contest that should be, at minimum, a pick'em affair.
BRANDON LEE
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Over 9
These two teams played a crazy 15 inning game on Tuesday that saw the Phillies come back from down 7-2 to win 9-8, tying the game in both the bottom of the 9th and bottom of the 10th. I don't see either bullpen being all that effective in this one and that should have this one flying over the total. Philadelphia will send out Aaron Nola, who is a quality guy to back against just about everyone but the Marlins. Nola is 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA in 3 starts against Miami this season and it's not like one of those starts is skewing the numbers, he was poor in all 3 outings. He will be opposed by Daniel Straily, who is struggling to the tune of a 5.06 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Straily has faced the Phillies 4 times this season and while he's 3-1, his ERA is 4.76 and all 4 starts have gone over the total.
MIKE LUNDIN
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9
The Colorado Rockies are riding a six-game winning streak, including back-to-back wins here at Chase Field. They won Tuesday's contest 4-2, and I predict another low-scoring contest tonight.
German Marquez (10-6, 4.27 ERA) will take the ball for Colorado. The 22 year old right-hander has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 10 innings through his last two starts, but under is still 9-1 in his last 10 starts overall. He has held Arizona to 13 runs in five meetings covering 29 2/3 innings in five starts on the season, each game going under the total.
The D'Backs turn to Patrick Corbin (13-12 , 4.16 ERA) who was charged with eight runs on 11 hits and three walks through 4 1/3 frames of a 10-6 loss to San Diego his last time out. He had however been excellent during a five-game winning streak prior to that, allowing just a total of two earned runs in 35 2/3 innings.
Under is 4-1 in Corbin's last five starts against the Rockies.
JOHN MARTIN
Astros vs. Angels
Play:Angels -114
The Los Angeles Angels really need wins right now to make the postseason. They trail the Minnesota Twins by two games for the last wild card spot. I think Tyler Skaggs will get the job done here against a team he has had success against. Skaggs is 2-2 with a 3.37 ERA in five previous starts against the Astros. Mike Fiers has allowed 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts for a 15.13 ERA. Fiers is 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in seven previous starts against the Angels
JACK JONES
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Marlins +110
Aaron Nola is having a very good season for the Phillies. But one team he hasn't been able to figure out is the Miami Marlins. That's why I'll take a shot here with the Marlins at a nice underdog value Wednesday.
Nola is 10-10 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.237 WHIP in 24 starts this year. However, he is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in six career starts against Miami. In three starts against the Marlins in 2017, Nola has gone 0-3 with a 10.68 ERA while allowing 17 earned runs and 5 homers in 14 1/3 innings.
Daniel Straily has also put together a solid season for the Marlins in the ace role. He is 9-8 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 29 starts this year. He has fared well against the Phillies, too, going 4-1 with a 3.90 ERA in five career starts against them.
Straily is 34-26 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 35-70 (-27.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season, including 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Phillies are 0-4 in Nola's last four starts vs. Miami.
JIMMY BOYD
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -118
I like the value here with Philadelphia as a short home favorite against the Marlins on Wednesday. The Phillies are riding a huge wave of momentum into this one, as they pulled off an improbable 9-8 win in 15 innings on Tuesday. Philly trailed 2-7 after 6 innings, but score 1 in the 7th, 3 in the 8th and 1 more in the 9th to send it to extra. They then matched Miami in the 10th with a run.
That's a tough loss to bounce back from for the Marlins and it's not like they have been playing well of late, as they are just 2-13 in their last 15 games. On top of that, Miami sends out a struggling Dan Straily, who has a 5.06 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Phillies on the other hand counter with Aaron Nola, who is 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 11 home starts.
Phillies are 13-4 in their last 17 games after scoring 8 or more runs, while Miami is a mere 8-17 in their last 25 after putting up 8 or more runs and 7-24 in their last 31 when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5.