DAVE PRICE
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -102
Great price here with the Texas Rangers at basically even money at home against the Seattle Mariners. Martin Perez is 7-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last 7 starts. Perez enjoys facing the Mariners, going 6-3 with a 3.54 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against them. Mike Leake has had little success on the road this year, going 4-6 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts away from home. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 road games. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Rangers are 20-7 in Perez's last 27 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rangers are 5-1 in Perez's last 6 home starts vs. Seattle.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +126 over KANSAS CITY
Erik Skoglund and Lucas Giolito are both four starts into this season but they are a very different four starts. Skoglund made his major league debut on May 30th after Danny Duffy was placed in the DL. Skoglund tossed a six-inning, two-hit gem in his MLB debut but then two subsequent disasters got him sent him back down to AAA-Omaha where he remained until getting the call again on August 27. He lasted 1.1 innings against the Indians on Aug 27 and surrendered seven runs. He then appeared in relief on Sept 2 against the Twins and pitched three more poor innings, allowing three runs and walking three. All of that adds up to just 14 MLB innings in four starts and one relief appearance. In those 14 frames, Skoglund has been tagged for 23 hits while walking 10 batters and striking out 11. That’s 33 base-runners in 14 innings for a WHIP of 2.36. Skoglund is a decent enough prospect but he’s not the first decent prospect to fall apart at this level once getting here. Some guys can handle it and thrive while others cannot and while it is way too early to put the latter label on him, we’re not going to ignore it either. His confidence can’t be thriving right now either. Incidentally, Skoglund is a lefty and the South Side have been very good all year v southpaws.
Lucas Giolito’s plight is much different and more promising. He made a brief appearance last season as a member of the Nats and it didn’t go well. He was, however, the key cog in the subsequent trade that sent Adam Eaton over to Washington. After arriving in Chicago, Giolito showed good progress. In the minors this year he was working on his wicked curve and other pitches before his most recent call-up. This top prospect was called up on August 22 and four starts later, he has not looked a bit out of place. With a BB/K split of 8/23 in 25 frames to go along with a 2.84 ERA, Giolito’s small sample size results have the full support of his underlying skills. He has a first-pitch strike rate of 65% to go along with a nifty 12% swing and miss rate. With an xERA of 3.51, Giolito might be here for good. This kid looks very comfortable on the mound and in complete control of what he’s trying to do. He looks very good also. We’ll bite.
Colorado +134 over ARIZONA
Patrick Corbin had his best month of the season in August (2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). Those elite stats received some very sturdy support too with 9.6 K’s/9 1.8 BB’s/9, 55% grounders and a 3.27 xERA. Corbin’s elite skills had the backing of an excellent 13% swing and miss rate and solid 34% ball%. He now comes into this start with a 13-12 record and a very respectable 4.16 ERA after 29 starts. However, Corbin was absolutely torched in his last start in San Diego and we’ve been watching this starter get into a funk for an extended period of time for years now. His slumps have lasted a lot longer than his good times have so he could be a fragile pitcher after such a bad outing. Furthermore, the Rocks have absolutely torched him in the past, as current Rockies have a combined .342 BA average against Corbin over 173 combined AB’s.
German Marquez has gone mostly unnoticed this season in large part due to his mediocre surface stats (4.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP). Still, there's some interesting speculative potential here. His skills have surged a ton in the second half with 9.9 K’s/9, 2.2 BB’s/9, 42% grounders and a 3.89 xERA. That xERA is especially impressive because xERA does not take park factors into consideration. Marquez is missing a lot more bats too (8% swing and miss rate in 1H, 12% in 2H) and makes for a nice play here against an Arizona team that has dropped four of five and that has only scored nine times at home over its past three games.
Pittsburgh +147 over MILWAUKEE
Chase Anderson has been a pleasant surprise in 2017, as he's sporting a tidy 2.93 ERA heading into the final stretch of the season. What has been the key to his success, and is it sustainable? No, as Anderson has had some luck on his side. He has helped himself by adding some whiffs, which can probably be tied to his uptick in velocity. He's gotten his first-pitch strike rate back up to league average, which is where his percentage of pitches in the zone sits as well for the second straight season. There's no reason to expect his control to change much from his current level. His fly-ball rate continues to soar, which does not bode well when pitching at Miller Park, which dramatically increases home runs (+49% LHB, +11% RHB). A low home run per fly-ball rate has helped him maintain a 0.9 hr/9 on the year, including a 1.1 mark at home, but he's at risk of more damage via the long ball in the future. Anderson's numbers are much improved in 2017, but the gap between his ERA and xERA shows he's been extremely fortunate. On the plus side, he's added some zip on his fastball, which has helped him increase the strikeouts. However, his fly-ball tendencies have escalated, which will eventually come back to bite him in a hitter-friendly home park. Anderson should continue to be a serviceable starter but the overall package isn't nearly as strong as his ERA would suggest. Additionally, only two teams in the NL have struck out fewer times than the Buccos, which makes them a live dog whenever a price is offered.
Tyler Glasnow’s last MLB start came way back in early June against the Marlins. That was the start (4 IP 10H 7ER) that go him sent back down. What this market will see today is a starter that has been in the minors after getting lit up at this level to the tune of a 7.45 ERA with a BAA against of .326 over 12 starts. In four starts last season, Glasnow went 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA over 23 innings. It seems at times like the Pirates are being super-cautious with this top prospect and the reason is obvious: they saw an emerging control issue; as 42 BB in 87 MLB IP confirms. However, his swing and miss and groundball rates are in place and now he just needs more strikes. That's the last piece of this puzzle that might be in place too. Glasnow blazed through Triple-A Indianapolis since being sent down in June, nailing down a 1.93 ERA with 140 strikeouts and only 32 walks in 93.1 innings (15 starts). He's again made several adjustments to his approach, including speeding up his delivery and it appears to be working. This could wind up being a different Glasnow down the stretch than the version who carries a 7.45 ERA into this one. Glasnow’s season-long numbers assures us of a great price here. Remember, this is a pitcher with filthy stuff that is two years in working with the best pitching coach around. His stock could rise very quickly so get in now before that happens.
Atlanta +248 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals clinched the NL East on Sunday, had a day off on Monday, got whacked by the Braves on Tuesday and they have the Dodgers coming in on Thursday. This is a team that was never threatened all season, thus they’ve been on cruise control since May. Sure, there have been some big games and series just because the opposition was interesting but for the most part, the Nats march to the division crown has been one without threat all year long. The last thing left for the Nats to do before the playoffs begin is to finish with the best record in the NL in order to secure home-field advantage should the Dodgers and Nats play for the NL Pennant. Washington is 2½-games behind L.A. and again, the Dodgers come in here on Thursday. The point is that the Nats intensity level is low and likely won’t pick up until Thursday when the stadium is filled and the Dodgers are the opposition.
Then we have Max Scherzer, who is the reason for this near 3-1 line. With 238 K’s and a mere 46 walks in 178 frames to go along with a 2.32 ERA, Scherzer is the absolute straight goods and may slay this lineup like he slays most lineups. However, it was unknown if Scherzer was even going to make this start because of a calf injury. As it turns out, he will be and it’s probably not even a concern because if it was, the Nats would not send him out there for such a meaningless start. That said, Washington is much more concerned about October than September, and Scherzer might throw fewer innings this month and especially in this start than we’ve become accustomed to. This, therefore, becomes a decent gamble at a great price.
Luiz Gohera will make his second major league start after getting whacked in his first start. Pitchers making their debuts are extremely unpredictable because of nerves, anticipation, excitement and all the other things that go with making it to the big show. We never put much emphasis on a poor debut and we’re not going to start now because this is a great prospect with filthy stuff.
Gohara was acquired from the Mariners in January 2017 and was seemingly just another very good arm in the deep Braves system. He turned himself into an even better prospect after dominating on three levels of the minors. The hard-throwing lefty has always had the ingredients to be a stud bulldog. However, poor conditioning (he was chubby) limited him in the past. He made a commitment to better conditioning last off-season and it’s paid off. While he still has work to do with his large frame, he easily eclipsed his previous career-high in innings. Gohara can reach the 96-98 mph range with his fastball from his three-quarter arm slot. It is a legitimate plus pitch and he’s done a nice job of throwing strikes with it. Adding to his effectiveness is his slider which is now considered a plus pitch as well. It misses bats due to its late break. Gohara is aided by a deceptive delivery which makes him even more dangerous. He has vaulted up prospect charts, as he’s starting to put everything together. In the minors at Triple A before the call-up, Gohara was whiffing 12.2 batters per nine innings while holding the opposition to a .219 average. Even in that aforementioned first start, he struck out six batters in four frames with an 18% swing and miss rate. That alone makes him very worthy of taking back a tag like the one being offered here.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -147
St. Louis has won four in a row while improving to 41-31 at home after defeating the Reds 13-4 Tuesday night. The Cardinals banged out 14 hits and have scored 20 runs their last two games. Also, St. Louis has won 36 of its last 53 in the second game of a series and Cincinnati has lost 61 of its last 89 games at Busch Stadium and four of the last five meetings overall. Jack Flaherty is making his third start and he bounced back from a bad performance against the Giants by pitching five effective innings at San Diego while allowing just a run on three hits in five innings. The Reds have lost all three of Tyler Mahle's starts, including 7-2 at the Mets on Thursday when he gave up three runs on six hits in four innings. Cincy is 26-47 on the road and destined to finish last in the NL Central while St. Louis is closing in on the Cubs for first place.
Micah Roberts
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -109
Kevin Gausman has been controlling all three of his starts against the Jays this season, including a 1-0 win 12 days ago in Baltimore. The O's are 3-0 in this games. But he hasn't faced Marcus Stroman yet this year. Stroman has two starts against the O's this season and the Jays won both
Eric Schroeder
My free winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals Run Line, over the Cincinnati Reds.
The Redbirds are in second place in the National League Central, while the Cincinnati Reds are in last place. And the fact the Redbirds are on the brink of catching the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs, it has me thinking St. Louis win this game just as big as last night's 13-4 winner.
St. Louis has won four in a row and nine of 10, while it sports a 41-31 home record on the year after last night's 9-run rout.
The Cardinals had the night off on Monday, and came into this series well-rested for a Reds team that arrived from Queens, New York, where it knocked off the sad, sad Mets. I don't give the Reds a chance.
Cincinnati is two games from being eliminated, and is a dismal 26-47 on the road this season. The Reds are in the bottom of the rankings in September, with just 47 runs scored, while their .257 batting average ranks 14th this month.
I like the motivated Cardinals to win big here.
1* CARDINALS -1.5
Tommy Brunson
Wednesday's free play is the O's over the Jays to conclude their 3-game series at the Rogers Centre.
Baltimore picked the worst time to go into a tailspin, as their current 5-game slide has put a major dent in their wild card aspirations, but I have a feeling that they will leave Toronto today with the win before heading down to Yankee Stadium for their 4-game set with the Yanks.
Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are your hurlers, and Gausman is fresh off a poor start against the Yankees his last time out, but in the two starts prior to that he had worked almost 14 scoreless innings. Look for him to find his form, and do not expect closer Zach Britton's recent struggles to continue.
Meanwhile Marcus Stroman has gone 4 straight starts without a win, and in his last start against the O's he left early when he took a liner off the bat of Mark Trumbo in the second inning. That came 2 starts ago.
Just get the feeling that Baltimore will not see their skid balloon to 6 in a row.
Let's back the Orioles to stop the bleeding tonight.
1* BALTIMORE
Jack Brayman
My free play is the Toronto Blue Jays, as they'll easily take care of the Baltimore Orioles for a third straight night. I loved the Jays last night, and tonight they're getting money from a guest that is mired in a six-game losing streak.
Though the O's would love nothing more than to keep their wild-card hopes alive, this is a bad spot for them, in having to travel to Toronto after finishing up a series with the streaking Cleveland Indians.
You saw how futile the O's were the last two night, with a 4-3 loss on Monday and a 3-2 setback last night. They're just a deflated squad right now.
Meanwhile, Toronto stepped into this series after back-to-back wins over the Detroit Tigers, the first time the Jays have scored consecutive wins since mid-August, and now have the momentum from a four-game win streak after last night's gritty win.
The O's are hitting a mere .213 this month - third-worst in the majors. The struggle continues tonight, as the Jays win again.
2* BLUE JAYS
FRANK SAWYER
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play:Dodgers -215
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers with the money-line versus the San Francisco Giants listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Matt Moore. Los Angeles (93-52) snapped their eleven game losing streak last night with their 5-3 win over the Giants last night. The Dodgers have lost a decisive 45 of their last 57 games after a victory. Los Angeles has also won 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. San Francisco (57-90) has lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams that scored at least five runs in their last game. The Giants have also lost 22 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Take the LA Dodgers with the money-line listing Darvish and Moore.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Athletics vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The A’s were on a roll before getting silenced in the opener of this set. Getting outhit 16-3 is a surefire way to come up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Oakland now has to face a resurgent Fister, who has won five of his last seven starts. Boston is trying to hold off the Yankees in the AL East to avoid playing in the wild card game. The Red Sox are a deep team with plenty of talent.
The Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400! I have them winning 7-4. Lay the money on -1.5 run line.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -102
The Mariners and Rangers meet Wednesday in the third of a four-game series at Arlington. Seattle won 10-3 last night, just its third in eight contests and remained 3 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second wild card spot at .72-73. Meanwhile, 72-72 Texas looks to move back above .500, plus hopes to close the team's three-game deficit for the American League's second wild card spot.
The pitching matchup features Mike Leake (9-12, 4.10 ERA overall) for Seattle and Martin Perez (12-10, 4.81 ERA) for Texas. Leake will be making his third start since being acquired from St Louis and has won each of his first two outings as a Mariner. He's allowed two earned runs in each start, while striking out 12 against one walk in 13 overall innings. Leake is 0-1 with a 2.33 ERA in three career starts versus the Rangers, including two outings at Globe Life Park (0-1, 2.03 ERA).
Martin Perez will head to the mound tonight looking to match a Texas franchise record by winning his EIGHTH consecutive start. Perez has not exactly resembled Clayton Kershaw during his seven-game winning streak but he has allowed fewer than three ERs in five of the seven victories and owns a 3.15 ERA these last seven games, lowering his overall ERA from 5.46 to its current 4.10. Perez is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three starts against Seattle this year (Rangers are 1-2) and is 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts) all-time vs Seattle.
Leake has been everything Seattle could have hoped for (and more) in his first two starts with the Mariners but going against the red-hot Perez makes little sense right now. Take the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Reds at Cardinals
Pick: Over
The "total" in this one doesn't look high enough between two young pitchers with only a few MLB games each under their belts. Cincy's Tyler Mahle has had control issues (8 walks in 15 IP in his three starts) and was hit hard by the Mets in his last outing Sept. 7. Meanwhile, the Cards go with Jack Flaherty, making only his third start. The bats are sufficiently warmed up on both sides after last night's 17-run explosion.
Bob Balfe
Phillies -120
Both teams were involved in a slugfest last night. There will be 95% humidity tonight in Philly and I don’t expect the bats to go cold. Aaron Nola is less prone to give up the homerun ball and the Phillies do have the slightly better bullpen. Look for another marathon with Philadelphia being on the winning side.