Free Picks for Wednesday, September 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BRAVES AT METS
PLAY: METS -106
This is a pretty simple decision for me. In what amounts to a meaningless game between the Braves and Mets, I’ve found what I think is some meaning and that’s good enough for me to go ahead with a wager.
This is the final 2017 home game for the Mets. That means it’s also the final home game as manager of the Mets for Terry Collins. The widespread belief is that Collins will be retiring as the team’s skipper.
Collins is saying he wants to remain in baseball in 2018 and would prefer to stay with the Mets. But the veteran manager also indicated shortly after the conclusion of the 2016 campaign that he felt as though 2017 might be his last season as the Mets manager. Given the team’s less than stellar 2017, it’s pretty clear that it’s time for a change.
So this is very likely the final game Collins will manage in New York and I would expect the players would like TC to walk into the sunset with a victory. No problems in terms of a big price and I’ll take my chances here with the Mets.
Ben Burns
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Nationals -157
After the Nationals won the opener, the Phillies took yesterday's game. Given the matchup, the Nats should have an excellent shot at closing out their road trip with a victory in this evening's rubber game.
Leiter has an ugly 7.17 ERA in four September starts. Roark, on the other hand, has a 3.12 ERA in September. A closer look reveals that Roark had a 5.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP prior to the All Star Break. Since that time, he's posted a much improved 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In fact, he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a start since back in late July.
Throw in the fact that Roark is 4-0 with a superb 1.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP against the Phillies, since the start of the 2016 season, and the visitors are worth a look here.
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -173
The set-up: The Royals have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and Kansas City is set to begin its final farewell to several franchise cornerstones. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain are all pending free agents. However, the Royals figure to rest a few regulars on Wednesday as they continue their three-game series against the visiting Detroit Tigers. That said, Escobar started his 328th straight game on Tuesday and is expected to be in the lineup for all 162 for a second straight season. Another pending free agent, Jason Vargas, tossed six strong innings in Tuesday’s 2-1 victory as the Royals handed the Tigers their eighth straight loss. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera has missed the last two games after an MRI revealed two herniated disks but he’s seeking a second opinion and hasn’t ruled out a return before Sunday’s season finale.
The pitching matchup: A pair of struggling veterans take the mound on Wednesday, Jordan Zimmermann (8-13 & 6.19 ERA) for Detroit and Jason Hammel (8-13 & 5.32 ERA) for KC. Zimmermann’s back problems have been an ongoing concern but he was encouraged after allowing three runs over four innings in Thursday’s loss to Minnesota. “This was probably the best location and best velocity I’ve had in two years. I felt great,” Zimmermann told reporters. “The ball was coming out good. It was going right where I wanted it to.” That said, their hasn't been much "domination" by Zimmermann in 2017, as he owns a 1.58 WHIP and .317 BBA to go along with his 6.19 ERA. The Tigers are 10-18 in his starts (minus-$578), including 4-10 on the road. However, he is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in five career games (four starts) against KC. Hammel has nowhere to go but up after after allowing a total of 19 runs (18 earned) on 29 hits in just 12 2/3 innings over his last three starts (12.79 ERA). The Royals are 10-21 in all his starts this season, giving him MLB's fifth--worst moneyline mark of minus-$1233. Hammel is 3-2 with a 6.27 ERA in 13 career games (10 starts) against Detroit.
The pick: It's impossible to choose a "worst" between tonight's starters but it's pretty easy to identify the team in the worst shape. That's clearly the Tigers, who have lost eight in a row and 38 of their last 49!
Larry Ness
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -156
The Cubs were looking to clinch the NL's Central Division with either a win over St Louis or a Milwaukee loss against Cincinnati last night. However, the Cubs fell 8-7 to the Cards while the Brewers held off the Reds, 7-6 (Milwaukee had a four-run first!). Chicago's magic number remains just one, so any realistic playoff hopes for Milwaukee lie in catching the Rockies for the NL's second wild card spot. Tuesday's win left the Brewers 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies for the second NL wild card spot (Milwaukee has five games remaining and Colorado just four). The Brewers are also just one game ahead of the Cards and will play their final three games of the season against the Cardinals in St Louis, this weekend.
That means that Milwaukee can ill-afford a misstep against Cincy, as it plays its final two games of the 2017 season at home tonight and Thursday afternoon against the Reds. Cincinnati is just 66-91, better than only the 63-95 Phillies and 62-96 Giants in the National League. Homer Bailey (5-9, 6.96 ERA) continues his disappointing season in getting the start for Cincy, while the Brewers send rookie Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.76 ERA), who makes his eighth career start. Injuries have limited Bailey to 17 starts in 2017 and not much has gone right for a pitcher who owns two career no-hitters. He not only owns a bloated 6.96 ERA but has a 1.75 WHIP and opponents are batting .318 against him. Bailey comes in 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 career starts vs Milwaukee (Reds are 12-13). Woodruff allowed just four ERs in his first four major-league starts but has allowed 13 ERs on 20 hits over 17 innings (6.88 ERA) during his last three outings. Woodruff has never faced the Reds and I'd be lying if I said that his home/away dichotomy is not a concern. The Brewers are 0-4 in his home starts (5.16 ERA) but 3-0 in his road starts (2.00 ERA)!
Then again, Bailey's the 'perfect' mound opponent (he stinks!) and let's not forget that the Reds have dropped seven consecutive games and are only 27-49 on the road here in 2017 Milwaukee has virtually no margin of error remaining. A win here is a MUST! That's the bet.
Jim Feist
Orioles at Pirates
Pick: Under 9
Baltimore has an average offense and loses the DH for this series. Starter Gabriel Ynoa (3.14 ERA) is off an impressive 3-1 win over Tampa bay throwing 8 innings. The Under is 15-6 in Orioles last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Pittsburgh is on a 62-30-2 run under the total. Starter Chad Kuhl throws best at home and the Under is 22-10 in the Pirates last 32 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mike Lundin
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -159
The Cincinnati Reds are dead last in the NL Central and only a handful of teams across the major leagues have a worse record this season. They have dropped seven straight games including yesterday's 7-6 loss to the Brewers, and I think Milwaukee will pick up another win here Wednesday night.
Homer Bailey (5-9, 6.96 ERA) will take the ball for Cincinnati. He is 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA against Milwaukee on the season and he was tagged with four runs on seven hits and a pair of walks in four frames of an 8-5 loss to St. Louis his last time out.
The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.76 ERA). He conceded four runs on five hits and three walks in five innings against the Cubs his last time out, but I think he'll do better here in his first career outing against the Reds. We can expect plenty of run support for the 24 year old rookie as Milwaukee try to chase down Colorado for the second wild card spot in the National League.
BRANDON LEE
Tampa Bay at New York
Play: New York -1½
I like the value here with New York on the run line Wednesday. The Yankees are playing with house money right now, as they know worst case they get to host the Wild Card game. However, they are still within striking distance of Boston for the AL East title. I look for them to come out relaxed and play extremely well to close out the season, as long as they still have a shot at catching the Red Sox. Love this spot here with New York, as this will be the Rays first game since being officially eliminated from the playoffs. I just don't see Tampa being motivated at all here and on top of that the pitching matchup here is heavily in favor of New York with Luis Severino going up against Matt Andriese. Severino is 13-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 30 starts, while Andriese is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA in 7 road starts and has a 8.25 ERA in his last 3 outings.
TEDDY DAVIS
Mariners vs. A's
Play: A's -114
The A's have dropped the first two games in this series but prior to that they had won 7 straight games. I think they will respond here with Graveman going to the mound.
He has been rock solid at home with a 5-0 record and 2.79 ERA. He enter the game tonight in better form than that with a 1.20 ERA his last 3 starts.
The Mariners will send out Ramirez who is just 1-5 on the road with a 7.50 ERA in 9 starts. In 9 career starts against the A's he is 0-6 lifetime.
JIMMY BOYD
Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Play: Cincinnati +150
Most are just going to jump on Milwaukee, because they are the only team in this matchup with something to play for, but I like the value here with Cincinnati in the spoiler role. The Reds nearly won yesterday in a 6-7 defeat. I know Homer Bailey hasn't been great, but neither has Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff. He's got a 5.16 ERA in 4 home starts, all of which the Brewers have lost. He's also got an ugly 6.88 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Brewers also have had a history of not coming out on top against a bad starter. Milwaukee is just 6-18 against the money line in their last 24 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Reds have also gone 5-2 in Bailey's last 7 road starts against the Brewers.
JACK JONES
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St. Louis -102
The St. Louis Cardinals really need to win out. They are 2.5 games back in the wild card, but they do get to host the Brewers next series, a team they're trailing. And they got the monkey off their back by beating the Cubs 8-7 last night, giving them confidence heading into Game 3 of this series tonight.
The Cardinals clearly have the better starter on the mound tonight in Michael Wacha. He has gone 12-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 29 starts this season, 8-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 home starts, and 1-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts overall.
John Lackey has struggled with an 11-11 record and a 4.67 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 29 starts this year. Lackey has been at his worst on the road, going 7-6 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 15 starts away from home.
St. Louis is 51-26 after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons. The Cardinals are 8-2 in Wacha's last 10 starts when working on four days of rest. St. Louis is 5-1 in its last six home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Joey Juice
It's the Marlins Rockies from Coors Field in Colorado in game three of a three-game series. On the mound for the Marlins is Adam Conley (7-7, 5.24 ERA), and for the Rockies it will be Jon Gray (9-4, 3.62 ERA).
Everybody sees the marquee and figures this game is going to go way over the total.
Not this time.
When we look at the numbers they tell a different story.
First of all, out of the last 16 times these teams played, the game is gone under the total 12 of those times. Add to that the fact that Colorado has gone under in seven of their last eight games versus a team with a losing record, and you can see why the under looks so appealing.
John Gray really pitches well at home holding his opponents to under three earned runs a game. And even though Colorado is the best hitting park in the country, the Rockies themselves have been somewhat of a hitting slump as of late.
The play is under.
2* MIAMI-COLORADO UNDER
Tommy Brunson
Tonight's free play is the Nationals-Phillies Under the total as they close out their regular season series from the Bank.
Both games this week have landed Under the total, and the Under is now 5-2-1 the past 8 meetings this year between these N.L. East rivals.
The Nats have now played 6 of their 8 games on this concluding tonight road trip Under the posted price, while the Phils are on an overall 7-2-1 Under clip their last 10 games, including each of their last 5 holding Under the total.
Tanner Roark has seen each of his last 4 starts wind up in the Under column, and the Under is 9-1 his last 10 trips to the bump.
Mark Leiter has seen the Under go 3-1-2 his last 6 trips to the mound, so stick with the trends here on Wednesday and play the Nationals and the Phillies to land Under the total.
5* WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Chris Jordan
This is the week we see those playoff hopefuls really distance themselves from the pack. Tonight's National League Central clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds is a prime example.
That's why my free play is on the Brewers on the Run Line, as they're going to blast Cincinnati.
That said, the main reason here is not just the playoff motivation, but there is revenge to consider. The Reds shocked Milwaukee earlier this month, when they swept a three-game series in Cincinnati by a combined score of 21-8.
Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell downplayed the revenge factor, but the players don't forget that sort of thing. They'll want this series for both reasons.
Coming into this series, Reds had won four of their past six meetings with the Brewers. But after last night's win, Milwaukee leads the season series 10-7. And it is must-win time for the Brewers.
2* BREWERS -1.5
Jack Brayman
My free winner is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the Run Line, against the San Diego Padres.
I know there is a chance the Dodgers will be hungover after clinching the National League last night, but I also know they can't afford to accept losing like they did recently.
The Dodgers bats have to stay alive, with the playoffs beginning next week, especially with a potential matchup against the Diamondbacks looming.
Los Angeles will blast the Padres.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
1* DODGERS -1.5