Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, September 6th, 2017

Scott Rickenbach

Twins vs. Rays
Play: Under 9

The Rays Blake Snell has a 0.87 ERA in his last 3 starts. In fact, the southpaw has had 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. In those 4 starts he has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in 27 innings of work! Tampa Bay defeated the Twins 2-1 yesterday and another pitchers duel is likely here. That's because Minnesota is going with the 6'10 Aaron Slegers and the big right-hander is coming off of back to back double digit strikeout games at AAA Rochester. Also, in his lone start at the MLB level this season he allowed 2 earned runs on only 2 hits in 6 and 1/3 innings of work! The under is 5-2 in the Rays last 7 games. The under is 14-7 this season in Twins road games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. The under is on a 17-9 run in Rays games against teams with a losing record.

Cappers Club

Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8

The Cubs and Pirates face off on Tuesday and with two pitchers who usually give up at least a few runs a game on the mound, the over is where the value lies.

On the mound for the Cubs is Jose Quintana who comes into this game with a 4.49 ERA. In his last two starts he has given up a total of nine runs in 11 innings pitched.

One of those starts was against the Pirates and he gave up three runs in that one.

On the mound for the Pirates is Gerrit Cole who has given up more then four runs in three of his last four starts.

Look for the Cubs to get to him early and often.

Ben Burns

Cardinals vs. Padres
Play: Padres +1½

Lamet is off back-to-back excellent outings. Two starts ago, he limited Miami to four hits and one run, through six complete innings. That wasn't good enough though, as the Padres lost 2-1. Last time out, Lamet held the Dodgers to one run through six complete innings, striking out an impressive 10 batters along the way. Unforunately, he was facing Kershaw. So, once again, his effort was wasted. SD lost 1-0. Lamet figures to finally get some support here. Flaherty has made one start and it didn't go well. In four innings, at SF, he allowed five earned runs, on eight hits. While I like the Padres' chances of an "outright win," with another 1-run game a real possibility, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs.

Jim Feist

Cleveland at Chicago
Pick: Under

This is a good park to pitch in and a great Cleveland pitching staff is in town. The Under is 33-16-3 when the Indians face an AL Central team. Carlos Carrasco is on the mound and the team is 20-8 under when he pitches on the road. Chicago has a weak offense, 9-1 under the total at home. And the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings.

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA -105 over Texas

This is the first game of a DH with the scheduled starters being Miguel Gonzalez and Luiz Gohara.

Miguel Gonzalez is set to make his debut as a member of the Rangers after waiting out a rain delay last night. He has been hot as of late, going 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA over his last five starts so his stock is high and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Rangers are very warm too. Thing is, Gonzalez still has a terrible 5.51 xERA this season. In his 13 road starts this season he went 3-7 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. This is a pitcher with few skills that has ridden a wave of good fortune to post some of the most misleading numbers in the game. His 30%/24%/46% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile doesn’t figure to play well at this park either.

We scrambled a bit late yesterday afternoon to get some scouting reports on Luiz Gonzalez and posted those findings in our MLB call-up section. 15 hours later and we have some additional info. Gohara was acquired from the Mariners in January 2017 and was seemingly just another very good arm in the deep Braves system. He turned himself into an even better prospect after dominating on three levels of the minors. The hard-throwing lefty has always had the ingredients to be a stud bulldog. However, poor conditioning limited him in the past. While he still has work to do with his large frame, he easily eclipsed his previous career-high in innings. Gohara can reach the 94-98 mph range with his fastball from his three-quarter arm slot. It is a legitimate plus pitch and he’s done a nice job of throwing strikes with it. Adding to his effectiveness is his slider, which is now considered a plus pitch as well. It misses bats due to its late break. Though his changeup is a distant third pitch, it has gained consistency as he’s learned to repeat his delivery and slot more frequently. Gohara is aided by a deceptive delivery which makes him even more dangerous. In a bizarre twist, he has been much more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties despite the lack of an average change-of-pace offering. Gohara is still very young and has some work to do. However, he has vaulted up prospect charts as he’s starting to put everything together. He’s struck out 48 batters in 36 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett before this call-up and we absolutely are willing to gamble on him here because he’s capable of throwing a masterpiece while Gonzalez isn’t even close to being capable.

Minnesota +154 over TAMPA BAY

Blake Snell put up the best stats and skills of his season in August. Underneath his 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP was this collection of skills: 8.3 K’s/9, 2.7 BB’s/9, 51% grounders and an xERA of 4.17. He also missed bats a high rate (12%). The piece holding back Snell from fulfilling his high ceiling is poor control, a weakness that continued to plague him under the surface in August (57% first-pitch strike rate, 40% ball%). You may remember that Blake Snell did not have a win after 15 starts this season. On August 15 of this year, Snell was 0-6 after 15 starts with a 4.69 ERA and he was an underdog every time he took the mound. He has now won three of his last four starts with a no-decision thrown in for good measure to run his record to 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA. This market will also see his 0.89 ERA over his last three starts. Snell is decent to be sure. However, he’s the poster boy for how luck plays a big part in outcomes. Through his first 15 starts, he had none. Over his last five starts, his strand rate was 84%. He’s also walked 50 batters in 105 frames so his control comes and goes so he brings that risk with him. Snell is a high-risk/reward play for September, meaning he’s a high risk here, as a big favorite against the Twins.

Called up as the 26th-man for a doubleheader on August 18, Aaron Slegers made his major league debut for the Twins before returning to Rochester after the game. The 24-year-old right-hander is tall (6'10" and 245 pounds) and polished. Unfortunately he does not have much velocity on his fastball (92 mph at best), so that limits his ceiling to pretty much how the Twins are using him now: an occasional starter, a swingman when needed, perhaps multiple innings out of the bullpen. If it all comes together, he could become a serviceable starter in the majors. He's a command-and-control pitcher, sequencing his three pitches well and keeping the walks down. His slider and curve are not out pitches, so with his average fastball he is not going to dominate batters. A career strikeout rate of 6.6 K’s/9 in the minors confirms this. He limits damage to his WHIP because of his control, and can be a durable arm for the team one way or the other. Slegers has been steadily climbing the minor league levels, and his skills have been remarkably consistent year after year and level after level. With a credible 130 IP at Triple-A now, he's ready for his major league debut, and should be able to help the Twins this year and beyond. He certainly had a nice first game, pitching 6.1 innings and allowing only two earned runs on two hits. He only struck out three while also walking two, but for the Twins those 6+ innings were just what they needed in the back half of a doubleheader. Just keep expectations in check as his ceiling is modest. So, what we know for sure is that Siegers will be throwing strikes and he’ll put the ball in play. Siegers is not the first pitcher that is often at the mercy of BABIP and he won’t be the last. This is generally a decent park for pitchers that put the ball in play and so Siegers and the Twinkies are worth a bet at this price.

So, what we know for sure is that Siegers will be throwing strikes and he’ll put the ball in play. Siegers is not the first pitcher that is often at the mercy of BABIP and he won’t be the last. This is generally a decent park for pitchers that put the ball in play and so Siegers and the Twinkies are worth a bet at this price.

Toronto +151 over BOSTON

Joe Biagini does not have a lot of market appeal right now because he was recently sent down, he’s 3-9 with a 5.01 ERA and he’ll be facing the Red Sox at Fenway. However, Biagini has been one of MLB’s unluckiest pitchers with an unsustainably low 62.5% strand rate that has sabotaged his surface stats. Underneath the hood, Biagini has been very good this year and even better since he returned from spending a bit of time riding buses. Since returning, Biagini has struck out 14 batters over 11 frames. His groundball rate is elite at 58% but it’s been even better since returning at 66%. He also has an elite line-drive rate of just 17%. Joe Biagini’s xERA this season is solid at 3.90 but over his last two starts, it’s in ace territory at 2.95. This dude can pitch and the fact that he’s this big a dog to Doug Fister is somewhat absurd.

Doug Fister wasn’t even supposed to pitch this year (because nobody wanted him) but after injuries to David Price, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brian Johnson, the Red Sox were desperate. Not too long ago, back in late July, the Red Sox announced that Doug Fister would re-enter the rotation when the next empty slot came up. Fister's 2017 results up to that point were 21 K’s and 17 BB’s in 25 innings with a 7.46 ERA. Had the Red Sox had some healthy bodies, Fister would not have been considered for a turn in the rotation but as fate would have it, the Red Sox had few options so Fister started and it’s been all glory ever since. Fister’s ERA over his past six starts is 3.29 but before you make him a key cog in your betting strategy, note that his command sub-indicators did not support his results: 7% swing and miss rate, 60% first-pitch strikes and 37% ball%. At his peak, Fister relied upon pounding the strike zone, limiting walks and getting plenty of grounders. Each of those areas showed massive erosion, especially control before this “sudden burst”. A puny strikeout rate has long been an issue, so any control/groundball% degradation is magnified. Negative trends in xERA, control, command, disaster starts and xERA painted a bleak picture before and we’re just not satisfied that Doug Fister is back from the dead.

DETROIT +120 over Kansas City

Yeah, yeah, we know that the Tigers have cleaned house and that Miguel Cabrera is in the midst of serving his six-game suspension but that gives some opportunities for some young players to inject some much-needed enthusiasm into that lineup with a chance to impress at this level. We now get to buy the Tigers over the final month at rock bottom prices and they’re worth a bet here with Matt Boyd going.

Boyd remains a high-risk/high-reward target but he could be worth a late-season look in certain spots and this is one of them. He has posted a 14% swing and miss rate over his last five starts, which has led to 26 K’s over his past 24 inning. That was a reminder of the type of skills he flashed in the second half of 2016, as well as the elite command he showed this spring. A 38% hit rate and 64% strand rate have kept his ERA very high at 5.92. However, his xERA over his last five starts is a glorious 3.91 and with a little better luck, he could be in line for a solid outing here.

K.C. is 4-6 over its past 10 games. They lost last night in the opener of this series, 13-2. Over their last nine games, the Royals pitching staff has given up 12, 12, 17 and 13 runs respectively in four of those games. This is a beat up bullpen and last night’s crooked number doesn’t figure to help matters. That taxed bullpen could be called upon early again tonight behind Jason Hammel. Hammel is 34-years-old and has thrown 156 innings this season. You may recall that he was left off the Royals postseason roster last year because of elbow tightness, which only adds to concerns regarding his workload this year and his backslide in xERA. In his last outing, Hammel struck out three batters in six full innings. He comes in with a 4.80/4.88 ERA/xERA split with 12 quality outings in 27 starts. This is not a pitcher worth getting behind as road chalk, instead, he’s worth fading because his chances of a weak or below average outing are stronger than a good outing.

San Francisco -1½ +220 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

24-39 + 26.55 units

Larry Ness

Houston vs. Seattle
Pick: Houston -157

The Astros won 5-1 on August 31, ending the month of August with an 11-17 record. However, that victory sparked a six-game winning streak and Houston will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Mariners in Seattle tonight. The Mariners have now lost seven of their last 10 games and the team's playoff hopes are fading, with Seattle falling three games back of the Los Angeles Angels for the AL's second wild-card spot (note:FOUR other teams are between Seattle and LA).

Houston's Lance McCullers was 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 15 starts (Astros were 12-3) through the end of June but fell on hard times in July, when he posted a 9.64 ERA before being placed on the disabled list. He makes his first appearance since July 30 in the finale of this three-game series. McCullers (7-3, 3.92 ERA) was shelved due to back discomfort and will be looking to regain his early-season form. He is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA in three starts against the Mariners this season (Astros are ), allowing just one run in each of the victories. He has experienced solid success against Seattle in his short career, going 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in eight starts (Houston is 5-3).

Seattle has pushed veteran Mike Leake's turn back to Friday, so Andrew Moore (1-3, 6.34 ERA) will be making his seventh start for Seattle but first since July 26. He has served up 11 HRs in just 38.1 major-league innings, hardly an encouraging sign. He was the Mariners second-round pick in 2015 and began the 2017 season at Double-A. He made his major league debut on June 22 at Safeco Field against Detroit, allowing three runs in seven innings for the victory in a 9-6 Mariners win, but was sent back down the following day. Moore was called up again from July 3-28, going 0-3 with a 6.07 ERA in five starts (team was 1-4), allowing 10 HRs in 29. innings. He was brought up again August 11 and pitched in relief before being sent down again the next day. He was recalled again September 1 but has not yet appeared for the Mariners in his latest stint.

Does Moore really look like a pitcher one wants to back? McCullers traditionally struggles on the road, where he is 6-11 with a 4.81 ERA in 27 career starts but he has gone 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in four career outings at Safeco Field. Take Houston to complete the sweep.

Power Sports

St. Louis vs. San Diego
Pick: St. Louis -108

I've recommended the Cardinals in this space two days in a row and considering they've won both times, I see no reason why we shouldn't make it three straight. A pitching staff that has allowed the fourth fewest runs in the National League was destined to matchup well w/ a Padres offense that ranks dead last in most key categories. That read has held up well so far as it was a shutout Monday and an 8-4 win Tuesday for the Cards. This is the best individual game price of the series yet.

Part of the reason we are able to grab the Cards at such as cheap price here is Jack Flaherty will be the starting pitcher. Flaherty's big league debut went poorly as he allowed five runs in four innings. It was against the Giants, who aren't good, but the Padres are worse. Speaking of the Giants, seeing as the Rockies are beating up on them currently, St. Louis has been able to make up no ground in the Wild Card chase this week. They need to keep winning. Simply put, don't be scared off by the pitching matchup here; the Redbirds are the vastly superior ballclub.

San Diego won three straight over the Dodgers this past weekend, which will probably end up being their season highlight. Their MLB-worst offense is the primary reason why they have the worst run differential in the sport. Based on run differential, they should only be a 53-win team. Their +9 difference between actual and expected wins is actually the largest in all of baseball! So, as bad as things have gone in 2017, they should actually be a lot worse. Starter Dinelson Lamet has pitched well of late, but I'm not counting on that lasting for long.

Brandon Lee

Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9

The UNDER is worth a good look in Wednesday's AL East showdown between the Orioles and Yankees. The conditions for this one are expected to be from ideal for a high-scoring game. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid 60's with a strong chance of rain and what win we have blowing straight in from center. Add in two red-hot starters in Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman and this one should stay well below the mark of 9 runs. UNDER is 11-1 in the New York's last 12 road games when they come in having played 6 or more consecutive games against division opponents. It's also 21-7 in Gausman's last 28 starts against a division opponent.

Stephen Nover

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Diamondbacks +159

The Dodgers are on pace to win 108 games. But every team hits a rough patch during the long baseball season. That's happening with the Dodgers right now. They've lost 10 of their past 11 games, including the last five.

Consequently, Arizona is sizzling winning 12 in a row.

The pitching matchup is fairly even here so I find great value at this price taking the underdog Diamondbacks.

Arizona starter Taijuan Walker is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA during his last three starts. He has 17 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings during this span. Walker will be extra pumped being from Southern California. Walker has a 2.71 ERA on the road this year.

Dodgers starter Kent Maeda is off his worst start. Maeda surrendered seven runs on eight hits in three innings. That came against the Diamondbacks six days ago at Arizona in an 8-1 loss. This will be the fifth time already the Diamondbacks face Maeda this season. He is 0-2 versus Arizona with a 9.53 ERA.

The Diamondbacks should get superstar Paul Goldschmidt back in their lineup today while Dodgers star Corey Seager remains doubtful with an elbow injury.

Jimmy Boyd

Brewers vs. Reds
Play: Reds -140

I got no problem laying some juice on the Reds money line at home Wednesday night against the Brewers. Cincinnati has taken the first two games of the series by scoring 14 runs on 19 hits and will get a shot at the Brewers' Matt Garza, who is 1-5 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 9 road starts and owns an ugly 7.82 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in his last 3 outings.

Cincinnati will counter here with Luis Castillo, who despite a 2-7 record in 14 starts has impressed with a 3.32 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. This will be Castillo's last start of the season, as the Reds are going to save his arm for 2018. While this will be it, Castillo has only been getting better and owns a 3.00 ERA and strong 0.933 WHIP in his last 3 starts, which he's struck out 22 batters in 15 innings of work.

Brewers are just 1-7 in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record and just 1-5 in Garza's last 6 starts following a team loss and 0-4 in his last 4 on the road against a team with a losing record.

Jack Jones

Giants vs. Rockies
Play:Rockies -147

The Colorado Rockies are clinging on to the second wild card spot by 2.5 games over the Milwaukee Brewers. They have won the first two games of this series with the Giants, who are 2-10 in their last 12 games overall. They now have the worst record in baseball and went on vacation a long time ago.

Kyle Freeland has held his own for the Rockies, going 11-9 with a 3.91 ERA in 25 starts this season. He has actually been at his best at home, going 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 starts at Coors Field. Freeland is also 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco.

Johnny Cueto has finally started to show signs of wearing down as he is now past his prime. Cueto is 6-7 with a 4.54 ERA in 20 starts, 4-5 with a 4.78 ERA in 11 road starts, and 0-0 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three starts. Cueto allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start at Colorado on April 21st.

Colorado is 11-1 in home games vs. poor power teams who average 0.9 or fewer HR's per game this season. The Giants are 22-51 in their last 73 road games. The Rockies are 21-7 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Colorado is 11-3 in its last 14 meetings with San Francisco.

Micah Roberts

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +125

Gerrit Cole has faced the Cubs twice this season and has allowed only two earned runs between the starts with both staying Under. The Bucs are 10-4 behind him when facing the Cubs. This is a spot where the Bucs are trying to win the first three of the four game series. The Cubs have lost three straight after a six game win streak.

Chris Jordan

The last two nights my free picks have been on the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Chicago Cubs, and tonight I'm coming right back with the Bucs, as they've won four in a row and I might as well ride them out, right?

And Pittsburgh hasn't just defeated the defending World Series champs, it scored a 12-0 victory over the Cubs in the opener of a four-game series, then came from behind to nab a 4-3 victory last night.

It appears the Cubs, like the Dodgers, are simply in a lull right now having lost three in a row. This is a good time of the year to take advantage of value underdogs.

It's a free pick, and pales in comparison to the my total tonight - my 400♦ Over/Under - but it's worth a shot.

Take the Bucs.

2* PIRATES

Tommy Brunson.

Yankees and the Orioles conclude their 3 game series from Camden Yards, and I will conclude it the right way....with a winner!

Wednesday night comp play release is Gio Gonzalez to tame the bats of the Miami Marlins, as Washington completes the three game sweep of Miami.

With last night's 2-1 win, the Nationals have now won 7 in a row over the Marlins, including a Gio Gonzalez near no-hitter back on August 9th, in a 10-1 Nats victory.

Miami has won just once in their last 9 games, and they will go with the untested Dillon Peters who just made his big league debut less than a week ago in a no-decision.

Gonzalez owns a 3-0 mark against the Marlins this season with a 1.29 ERA, and his career numbers against Miami look like this; 9-3 with a 1.94 ERA in his 15 career starts!

Tough sledding indeed for the slumping Marlins.

Lay it with the Nationals and Gonzalez.

5* WASHINGTON